DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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jmp116
May 10th, 2021 at 9:54:28 AM permalink
Quote: jmp116

if it is a positive progression, you raise your bet after wins, so it is important to have more wins than losses.

I disagree.

When playing an even money game that's close to 50/50 with a standard pressing progression, you don't need more wins than losses. In fact, you can survive many more losses than wins, if you have winning streaks that are long enough.

Yes, I realize that's a big "If".

For example, if you bet one unit on an even money game, then press your bet one unit on every win, while restarting at one unit after every loss, you could have 60% losses and break even - provided those 40% wins were four-in-a-row.

It's all about streaks.

A streak of five wins lets you survive 10 losses.
Six wins and you can survive 15 losses.

And it gets exponentially better.

Of course, it all revolves around a winning streak. And the longer the streak, the rarer it occurs.

If, instead, you have a "streak" of flip-flopping, win, lose, win, lose, etc, then this 'system' will really hurt.

So, while no system will ever be foolproof, or even work over the long term, there's something about the short term that can't be beat.

And that's why we gamble.
For the thrill of it.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
jmp116
jmp116
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May 10th, 2021 at 9:27:18 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The CLT works just fine even if the bets are based on past events. The outcomes of the bets are still independent of each other, which is all you need for the CLT to hold water.



What do you mean specifically by the outcome of a bet. Whether it's a win or a loss? Or how much is won or lost. The former are independent. The latter are not if you are using a system to choose your next bet size.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard 
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May 11th, 2021 at 5:25:19 AM permalink
Quote: jmp116

What do you mean specifically by the outcome of a bet. Whether it's a win or a loss? Or how much is won or lost. The former are independent. The latter are not if you are using a system to choose your next bet size.



Either one.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
jmp116
jmp116
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May 11th, 2021 at 2:44:11 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Either one.



Hmm, ok. It is the amounts gained on the different spins of the roulette wheel that determine if your system works. And they are not independent or identically distributed. So the simple version of the CLT doesn't apply directly to the analysis of the system.
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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May 11th, 2021 at 4:01:05 PM permalink
Quote: jmp116

Hmm, ok. It is the amounts gained on the different spins of the roulette wheel that determine if your system works. And they are not independent or identically distributed. So the simple version of the CLT doesn't apply directly to the analysis of the system.



You still seem to think a betting system can work. On a fair game (other than Blackjack), you can't. How much a bet pay makes no difference. It's still a negative expectation bet. The roulette wheel could have not landed on the number 1 for 200 straight spins. If you start betting it only at that point for a 36-1 payout chance, you still have a house advantage of 5.26 on the next spin and loss over the long haul.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
jmp116
jmp116
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Thanks for this post from:
MichaelBluejay
May 11th, 2021 at 4:25:03 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

You still seem to think a betting system can work.

ZCore13



No, I don't. That is not the point I'm making at all.
jmp116
jmp116
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May 11th, 2021 at 7:14:22 PM permalink
Here is the simplest example I can think of. You employ the martingale on just two trials of roulette. Say you are betting on red, so it pays even money. The first spin, you are going to bet $1 no matter what. The second spin, you will bet $1 if your first bet won, and $2 if your first bet lost. If X1 stands for how much you gain on the first spin (either +1 or -1), and X2 stands for how much you gain on the second spin (one of -2, -1, 1, or 2), then all I'm saying is that X1 and X2 are positively correlated. If you win $1 on the first spin, on average you tend to lose less on the second spin because you're betting less. And vice versa. I hope that is clear. None of that implies that systems can win, and I don't understand why it was interpreted that way.
jmp116
jmp116
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May 12th, 2021 at 2:41:38 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The CLT works just fine even if the bets are based on past events. The outcomes of the bets are still independent of each other, which is all you need for the CLT to hold water.



So now that you've understood the simple example in the previous post, how do you propose to apply the Central Limit Theorem to the sequence X1, X2, X3, X4, .... of amounts gained on spins 1, 2, 3, 4, ....? Those X's are generally correlated and not identically distributed.
daveyandersen1
daveyandersen1
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jmp116
May 12th, 2021 at 4:28:24 PM permalink
I really think variation distribution is all we need to understand .Just hope to hit it when the rolls spins cards or machines are in a favorable mode so we can take advantage of it. I guess I just explained it..You guys probably know this..I just never read much about it here..
jmp116
jmp116
Joined: May 6, 2021
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May 13th, 2021 at 3:25:13 PM permalink
Quote: daveyandersen1

I really think variation distribution is all we need to understand .Just hope to hit it when the rolls spins cards or machines are in a favorable mode so we can take advantage of it. I guess I just explained it..You guys probably know this..I just never read much about it here..



How can you tell when a roulette wheel is in a favorable mode?

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