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darkoz
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Mission146
April 29th, 2021 at 5:06:19 PM permalink
A lot about MDawg system reminds me of a system that jogged my memory of something Scarne wrote about. I hadn't read it in 25 years so had to remember where and order the book from Amazon.

It's in his book "Scarnes new complete guide to gambling" pages 407-409.

He details how a player won $400,000 in a little over a week using a progressive Marty style wager by convincing the casinos to stretch their minimum and maximum limits AT ROULETTE!!!

He doesn't discuss the long term. But he discusses the system as if it has some force of success.

Below is the relevant chapter.

This was delineated in regards to the -5.26% edge of roulette. So could this same system be used at the much better game of Baccarat?

What is the mathematical breakdown and simulation? Also, remember that MDawg cross utilizes a raising positive progression on streaks.

And finally, streaks are probably defined as three types.

All Banker
All Player
Alternate Player/banker.

What would be the odds of not hitting one single variation of those with the Scarne system of raising wagers (I probably shouldn't call it Scarnes system since he only related what he observed another player doing.)

At any rate, unless Scarne's story is bunk, this should be analyzed seriously







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Hunterhill
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Mission146
April 29th, 2021 at 5:31:05 PM permalink
I had to laugh when Scarne calls it a sophisticated betting system.
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billryan
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April 29th, 2021 at 5:31:51 PM permalink
Starting yet another thread about this should result in a long suspension.
darkoz
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Mission146
April 29th, 2021 at 5:35:11 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Starting yet another thread about this should result in a long suspension.



I don't think anyone has started a thread about Scarne besides me.

Plus I think my recent donation should give me some clemency

I asked if Scarne was a reliable source of mathematical information and several including the Wizard said yes.

So is he or is he not to be taken seriously with this chapter?
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EvenBob
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Mission146
April 29th, 2021 at 5:57:24 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz



And finally, streaks are probably defined as three types.

All Banker
All Player
Alternate Player/banker.



Is this what Mdawg does, waits for streaks? Most bac players wait for the streaks, especially the chop streaks. This is certainly nothing special. If you see a long streak on the table you will have people standing behind the seated players making bets. This is the most basic of moves in baccarat, betting the streaks. There are streaks in roulette, obviously, I believe the ones in baccarat happen more often and are longer. You can have a shoe where there are no streaks and the next shoe will be all streaks. The problem with the no streak shoe is you don't know it's a no streaks shoe till it's over. You will lose your money betting on streaks that never happened. What I mean is, you see five Bankers in a row thinking it's a streak so you bet, and it ends on the next hand.
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darkoz
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Mission146
April 29th, 2021 at 6:00:20 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Is this what Mdawg does, waits for streaks? Most bac players wait for the streaks, especially the chop streaks. This is certainly nothing special. If you see a long streak on the table you will have people standing behind the seated players making bets. This is the most basic of moves in baccarat, betting the streaks. There are streaks in roulette, obviously, I believe the ones in baccarat happen more often and are longer. You can have a shoe where there are no streaks and the next shoe will be all streaks. The problem with the no streak shoe is you don't know it's a no streaks shoe till it's over. You will lose your money betting on streaks that never happened. What I mean is, you see five Bankers in a row thinking it's a streak so you bet, and it ends on the next hand.



I don't know what MDawg does except he has described a lot in detail to be taken with a grain of salt.

But he seems to wager with a Marty of sorts until one win gets him back his profits while simultaneously raising into a streak.

Theoretically he doesn't have to "catch one" as he is always wagering.

Streak - raise

Losses - raise until single win
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Wizard
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Mission146
April 29th, 2021 at 7:28:28 PM permalink
I happen to have that book and read that part. My respect for Scarne went down a couple pegs after reading it. Had this casino called me for advice, I would have said roll out the red carpet for said player and keep him playing as long as you can. You'll eventually win it all back and more as long as he keeps playing.

There is no such thing as a "sophisticated" betting system. They are all equally worthless.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
darkoz
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Mission146
April 29th, 2021 at 8:09:49 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I happen to have that book and read that part. My respect for Scarne went down a couple pegs after reading it. Had this casino called me for advice, I would have said roll out the red carpet for said player and keep him playing as long as you can. You'll eventually win it all back and more as long as he keeps playing.

There is no such thing as a "sophisticated" betting system. They are all equally worthless.



Okay nuff said.

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onenickelmiracle
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Mission146
April 30th, 2021 at 2:29:02 AM permalink
Took me all day to realize why Scarne sounded so familiar, Michael Scarn, the "movie character" Michael Scott played on the office.

lilredrooster
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Mission146
April 30th, 2021 at 3:25:19 AM permalink
......................

I think Scarne knew how hard it would be to get good sales on a gambling book without showing at least one easy money system

so he lied, and gave the buying public a pipe dream

I'm sure he knew the system was bogus



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