AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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March 3rd, 2021 at 12:02:36 AM permalink
The other night I watched some craps players betting heavily on the field and getting a lucky streak. One player went from $300 in his rail to more than $5k. And that's when he started yelling "bet the field! The experts say it's a bad bet but they're wrong!"

And about a half-hour later he was back to less than $1,000 which is when he left.

This reminded me about some other failed strategies:

ONLY BET RED ON THE COMEOUT

I watched a player at Caesars buy in with $100k and he used this strategy. He bet a 3 way 7 on each shooter's come out roll. And for each shooter who failed to roll a winner 7, he'd double the bet on the next shooter.

So for the first shooter it was 3 X $25. For the second shooter it was 3 X $50... and so forth.

This was his only bet. The problem? No one threw a winner 7 and the guy lost all $100k.

BET $100 ON 12 FOR 30 ROLLS IN A ROW

The strategy was simple. On 30 rolls of the dice bet a black chip on boxcars. The player figured he'd hit at least one. No one threw a 12. He lost $3,000.

After he lost $3,000 several shooters threw midnight but there was no money left to bet.

BET ON SIX

I'm not sure how much money this player had but his strategy was simple. Bet $100 on the hard 6 and $120 on the place 6 for each shooter.

The problem: no shooter rolled any 6 before his bankroll was gone.
USpapergames
USpapergames
Joined: Jun 23, 2020
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March 3rd, 2021 at 12:05:39 AM permalink
I probably shouldn't be wasting my time on here, but what betting system in a negative sum game possibly has a winning strategy?

Maybe your talking advantage play or cheating?
Math is the only true form of knowledge
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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March 3rd, 2021 at 12:10:00 AM permalink
You're correct. There is no betting system that works in the negative expectation game of craps.

But the schemes are interesting.
USpapergames
USpapergames
Joined: Jun 23, 2020
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March 3rd, 2021 at 12:54:34 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

You're correct. There is no betting system that works in the negative expectation game of craps.

But the schemes are interesting.



You know you bring up a good point. I've seen so many people obsessed with betting systems yet its the one thing that I still struggle today with understanding peoples motivations towards them. I feel this information could be of value to me as a game designer but I am also just curious as to why? Is it because people want to think they can disprove math as if they are smarter or know better, or is it negative reinforcement that makes people want to commit to these betting systems? I have often though that people prefer the martingale because most of the time they will walk away a winner or even, but that one time they are going to get a bad run and loss everything, so they are a martingale player because they haven't lost it all ye but its just a matter or time. But all those are just my assumptions and I would love your input since its probably difficult to find these religious betting system players to interview with.
Math is the only true form of knowledge
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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March 3rd, 2021 at 1:16:08 AM permalink
I dont follow any betting scheme myself, but I've heard them all:

Aces follow aces, midnight follows midnight, second roll yo, second roll horn... etc.

You could easily market some craps side bets using these. There's probably a market for them.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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March 3rd, 2021 at 2:28:47 AM permalink
I can't get any traction on field bets unless I'm gonna DI some field numbers myself. I always have to make up my losses from when other people were shooting. I'd want to run a progression on the Buy 4 & 10 too.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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March 3rd, 2021 at 11:20:37 AM permalink
I see why these ‘systems’ failed.
Quote: AlanMendelson

...The problem? No one threw a ...
-snip-
... No one threw a ...
-snip-
... The problem: no shooter rolled any ...

I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
lilredrooster
lilredrooster 
Joined: May 8, 2015
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March 4th, 2021 at 2:30:22 AM permalink
..................


Jean Le Rond D'alembert was a brilliant French mathematician circa 1759 who erred in writing that the probability of coin landing on heads increased for every time that it came up tails previously - because of this error his reputation suffered - although he is still regarded as having achieved greatness in his field

a betting system - the Alembert - a version of the martingale - is named after him

if a brilliant mathematician could falsely believe this - it's easy to see how more average people could become susceptible to the lure of betting systems



*
𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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March 4th, 2021 at 2:43:39 AM permalink
If there's no winning streak, there's no winning streak.
Chapz
Chapz
Joined: Feb 26, 2020
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March 4th, 2021 at 7:49:35 PM permalink
"To beat a random game you have to be good at being random." -Chapz
"To beat a random game you have to be good at being random."

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