Tanko
Tanko
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JoemanodiousgambitNewtoTown
January 30th, 2020 at 3:06:05 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

I'd play BJ. Chances of winning two decisions in a row are better than in craps or roulette.


Skipping ties, the probability of winning a BJ hand with perfect play is 46.36%. The probability of winning a Pass Line or DP bet is 49.3%. The chance of winning two hands in a row is better with Craps than Blackjack.
Tanko
Tanko
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NewtoTown
January 30th, 2020 at 3:31:45 AM permalink
Quote: NewtoTown

Although it has been said that no system, other than card counting will beat the house edge... what system, for any game has the highest likelihood of turning $5000 into $20,000?



I would try my luck with Baccarat, betting Banker, which wins 50.3% of all winning hands.

Split your bankroll into twenty units.

Win a hand, bet two units on the next hand. Win that, bet four on the next. Then start over. Win three consecutive hands and you win seven units, never risking more than a single unit from your starting bankroll.

Try it on these real hands:

BPPBBBBPBPPBBBBPPBPBBBPBPBBBPBPBBBBBBBBBPBBBBBBPPPBBBBBBB
PPBBBBBBBPPPBPPPBPPBPBBBPBPBPBBBBBBPBBBPBBBPPBPBPPBPPBBBBPBPB
NewtoTown
NewtoTown
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January 30th, 2020 at 9:46:55 AM permalink
What system would you personally use when playing Craps?

Regarding your answer/reply, that is very good to know. Thank you. Craps sounds much better but for which system or method of play?

Having said that, if one used Oscar's Grind for BJ and one counted lost Splits as 2 losses and lost Doubles as 2 losses or a Split with a Double that loses as 3 losses, would the Doubles and Splits as one progressed up on wins eventually catch up in a positive way (counting those (Ds and Ss) as two wins and moving up one unit at a time in spite of the double wins. Then with BJ keep the Blackjack wins (paid at 3/2) as extra wins as bonuses over and above the one unit win as each series completes?

I tested this on BJ with no doubles or splits and made it 32 hours before losing a bankroll of $5,000, but was up about the same amount when it lost. I say tested, as in online testing.
NewtoTown
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January 30th, 2020 at 9:53:39 AM permalink
Thanks for the reply... I did try that system and 1326 and 1324 on a large batch of Craps data I collected, but it lost fairly quickly.

I tried Martingaling the buy-ins but to recoup 20 unit losses and that caught up quickly as well at certain points.

I have not tried this on Bac and have collected 124 hours of real time play.

QUESTION:
Would the house vig of 5% overtake the wins? Or not likely before doubling a bankroll?

Also, If one loses the 20 unit bankroll does one have to have a second bankroll in reserve? Or is this all all out attempt to double or quadruple my $5000 bankroll by diving it into one batch of 20 units (win or lose)? In other words, take 20 $250 units and go for it all out?
NewtoTown
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January 31st, 2020 at 12:45:12 AM permalink
Hi Tanko,

I have a fair amount of decisions I have recorded for Bac and while there are a definitely batches where the suggested progression stays ahead of the losses, but the losses were too many too often... but there is merit too your suggestion for sure. I was thinking there must be some progression or combination of progressions that can take advantage of the stat you mentioned ("betting Banker, which wins 50.3% of all winning hands"). No progression wins over time it has been said, but there must be one out there doubling the bankroll happens more so that using other progressions.

Have you ever heard of any other progressions that could be well suited for Bac that use positive or neg/positive combination progressions, yet where the 5% commission does not eat up the profits?

Perhaps there is a way to combine the progression you suggested by stacking it with other progressions or raising the base unit periodically when the progression gets a certain amount of losses accumulated to the point where the primary progression can't recover?

I have some ideas on this but curious on ideas you may have to take advantage of the 50.3% of all winning hands on the Banker side...

Thanks again for the input and any other methods you can suggest. As I mentioned there were some great strings of wins using the 1,2,4 progression, but I feel like this can be layered somehow for a bit more safety to decrease the chance of losses too early on in case one hits a bad stretch where there are not 3 consecutive Bankers in a row.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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NewtoTown
January 31st, 2020 at 4:30:44 AM permalink
Quote: NewtoTown


How often do you double your buy-in versus lose.

Hi. I reckon you need OnceDear's Rule of Thumb Appliys to ANY system and ANY low edge game.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
DeMango
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January 31st, 2020 at 12:18:25 PM permalink
But what is the best system with a positive ev?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
OnceDear
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Foragerodiousgambit
January 31st, 2020 at 2:48:57 PM permalink
Quote: DeMango

But what is the best system with a positive ev?

????
If you have a game with positive ev, then isn't kelly betting the best money management system?
Or are you expecting the system itself to be +ev with an underlying -ev game? Doesn't exist.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
NewtoTown
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January 31st, 2020 at 4:17:43 PM permalink
I've created a number of systems that work with a $20,000 bankroll and not busted across a lot of data. I was up over $80,000 (on paper) and ran out of data for one of the table games I kept logs on. I did test the same system across other data sets and simulated data and it held. That does not make it it a positive ev system, and yes, if I had the $20,000 I'd give a go, but I only have $6,000 which is why I am trying to figure out how to multiply that.

I also have a system that does insanely well across all data sets and requires a $50,000 bankroll while never exceeding house limits or the $50,000 bankroll, but that is even more out of my reach.

I'd partner with someone in a second if they wanted to split the profits 50/50.

Some people might think that $20k and $50 bankrolls are absurd, but I have friends who played on various high profile card counting teams from the 80s and 90s and they used to have $100,000 to $250,000 bankrolls because pro systems seem to require this to beat the following: A) very long negative strings of decisions (such as from my data set.... 11 losses consecutive 1 win and 12 more consecutive losses), and B) the system must be able to beat long and protracted stretches where the loss rate can be as follows 52% loss rate for one hour, 67% loss rate (i.e. 51 losses and 25 wins) one hour, 60% loss rate for one hour, 63%, 55% 52% 57% etc... hour after hour for 5-7+ hours.

If a system can navigate the short and long term nasty waters and beat all other environments such as chop, double chop, and so on, and one never has to change the rules to suit some new happening on the table, then I feel like the system is legit....

The systems I use on paper, from time to time get into the range of $1,000 to $2,000 bets and once even $4500 for a single bet, but have *never* exceeded the house limits that I see posted on the LV strip and most/many tables.

If only I could find a partner who had the extra cash, which I do not have, I would head to the strip today with them. I only have $6k to contribute.

I only moved to LV hoping to find a way to win with a lower bankroll but to no avail have I found one.

Nor, has anyone shown me a system that can actually even make it threw all my real live table data sets.... let alone double the bankroll. I have real time data I have collected across Bac, Craps and BJ and my systems crushes all of these games IF one has the bankroll for it.

I have determined that a system typically busts (as in loses a full bankroll) if you divided the bankroll by the hourly win rate (based on the unit size in use)... you'll rarely get past that number of hours (meaning won't double your money). Most systems seem to return a 10% to 50% profit rate and then go haywire (as in give it all back and more) because they just do not work. The above is crude empirical observation/calculation but often holds true, hence the reason I will not use any system in real life that can't beat the rigorous conditions I use for testing.

I feel like a system that has made it through hundreds and hundreds of hours of various games, not lost even 1 bankroll (and not once crossed the house table limits that are readily available all over LV) is the best I will ever do, but the catch... a $20,000 bankroll is required for one of my systems and $50k for the other... and this is out of my league. It took me two years just to save the $6,000 and I won't gamble live with it, as in truly risk it (because I would be under-capitalized for the know amount needed to use the systems I have created).
NewtoTown
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January 31st, 2020 at 4:18:23 PM permalink
I replied below

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