SportsBettingNEVERlooses

Hello!
I'm posting this after reading other posts about certain individuals sports betting record and a slump they may or may not be in... Also, having read the "warnings" on this board about betting systems CANNOT win, I'm rather surprised by the attitude of most of the participants...

I agree that mathematically ANY system CAN lose to the house edge... especially flat betting... the math never lies...

But I think most of you doing sports betting are doing it wrong... I have read dozens of sports betting books... "just bet 1% of your bankroll on the home team after 3 losing away games" and rubbish like that... I don't look for edges or advantages... I do use an extremely effective, practical progression...I believe EVERYTHING is in the odds... the bookies have done all the heavy "figuring" to determine who they think will win and by how e odds are ALWAYS correct... I don't do prop bets, my bets are all Money line, Totals, or the Point Spread depending on the sport.. I'm not here to sell my system (although I may write a book about it someday), I'm not even here to convince you of ANYTHING... it sounds like most of you have chosen to accept that your going to lose and/or do lose consistently. I feel sorry for you...

I guess what I would like to say is that you should never stop LOOKING for something that works for you. After over 30 years of searching, researching, studying, experimenting, I have something that works.

I don't spend HOURS each day making my fact, it takes me literally minutes...I bet almost EVERY GAME in the sports that I follow... I used to only bet a couple of games per day, but then I thought if what I'm doing is working, why not maximize my profit? So I just plain bet EVERY game.. I make AT MINIMUM 100 units per month...EVERY...MONTH.... Right now I'm betting on NHL, NBA, and NCAA BB... for the month of January, so far (as of the 15th), I'm up almost 10k with $100 base units... In December I made over 18k... and so on... 10K to 20k monthly happens like clockwork depending on the time of year and the sports I'm betting...

Please understand that I'm not just "lucky", and these numbers are not an exception... it's real. I just NEVER have a losing month...I MEAN NEVER... Do I have losing days? SURE... but again, my MONTH is what I'm focused on and every 30 days CONSISTENTLY I will make my 100+ units. I have also "back-tested" over several years...I just win win win each month that is tested... Is it possible to have a losing month doing what I'm doing? I guess so. I COULD be struck by lighting the next time I leave my house. Anything is possible.

Again, I just want those of you searching/looking/hoping for a system to know that you CAN beat sports.. I do it every month, and NOBODY can tell me it doesn't work... believe me, if I can do it, so can you. It's not complicated (I'm just not that smart ;) so don't make it so... I truly wish you the best and DON'T GIVE UP...

Please don't reply with negative thinking "it's impossible" posts... because I know it IS possible..I'm not a liar, I have no reason to. I don't know you, you don't know me. I'm not selling anything. I just want YOU to know that sports betting works... find something that you can practically do and make work for you!

I'll get off of my soapbox. It just makes my blood boil when I see someone saying "it's impossible" when I do it every day... bring on the naysayers ;)

Ok....excellent. Post your picks prior to game time for a month and let’s see how you do.

Sounds like you are betting everyday and lots of games. Should be a good chunk of games.

Let’s see where you stand after 1 month.

First of all, games of opinion are always potentially beatable.

It pains me to have said that because I have to follow up with the observation that anybody who claims to bet every game and make 100 units a month has access to way better pharmaceuticals than anything I have ever seen. And bear in mind that my writing mentor, the late Robert Gannon, became famous by taking LSD, checking himself into a hospital, and writing about it for Popular Science (enterprising souls can look it up).

I am so pleased that you win, win, win every month. After 40 years of doing this professionally, I can honestly make the following statements:

1) I knew one gentleman in my life who claimed to have never had a losing year, and I believed him. But what he did was primarily arbitrage back in the 80's and 90's. He was middling offshores before most people knew what the internet was.

2) In 40 years, I have never seen solid long-term evidence (futures and arbitrage aside) that anyone has won at more than two different sports. So you are truly a genius.


And then again, a la The Dawg, this might be a great parody post. If so, I salute you for making me waste my time with a response.

You have one thing in common with everyone else who posts about their sports betting here.. you’ve been on fire recently.

Post your picks , bet amounts, and odds/lines you got. We’ll see how it goes.

Quote: michael99000

You have one thing in common with everyone else who posts about their sports betting here.. you’ve been on fire recently.

Post your picks , bet amounts, and odds/lines you got. We’ll see how it goes.

What happened to the last guy who was making these type of handicapping beats? His last bet was December 18, which was a bad beat and he was down 1/3 bankroll.

We never heard from him again.

Quote: audionut

Hello!
I'm posting this after reading other posts about certain individuals sports betting record and a slump they may or may not be in... Also, having read the "warnings" on this board about betting systems CANNOT win, I'm rather surprised by the attitude of most of the participants...

I agree that mathematically ANY system CAN lose to the house edge... especially flat betting... the math never lies...

But I think most of you doing sports betting are doing it wrong... I have read dozens of sports betting books... "just bet 1% of your bankroll on the home team after 3 losing away games" and rubbish like that... I don't look for edges or advantages... I do use an extremely effective, practical progression...I believe EVERYTHING is in the odds... the bookies have done all the heavy "figuring" to determine who they think will win and by how e odds are ALWAYS correct... I don't do prop bets, my bets are all Money line, Totals, or the Point Spread depending on the sport.. I'm not here to sell my system (although I may write a book about it someday), I'm not even here to convince you of ANYTHING... it sounds like most of you have chosen to accept that your going to lose and/or do lose consistently. I feel sorry for you...

I guess what I would like to say is that you should never stop LOOKING for something that works for you. After over 30 years of searching, researching, studying, experimenting, I have something that works.

I don't spend HOURS each day making my fact, it takes me literally minutes...I bet almost EVERY GAME in the sports that I follow... I used to only bet a couple of games per day, but then I thought if what I'm doing is working, why not maximize my profit? So I just plain bet EVERY game.. I make AT MINIMUM 100 units per month...EVERY...MONTH.... Right now I'm betting on NHL, NBA, and NCAA BB... for the month of January, so far (as of the 15th), I'm up almost 10k with $100 base units... In December I made over 18k... and so on... 10K to 20k monthly happens like clockwork depending on the time of year and the sports I'm betting...

Please understand that I'm not just "lucky", and these numbers are not an exception... it's real. I just NEVER have a losing month...I MEAN NEVER... Do I have losing days? SURE... but again, my MONTH is what I'm focused on and every 30 days CONSISTENTLY I will make my 100+ units. I have also "back-tested" over several years...I just win win win each month that is tested... Is it possible to have a losing month doing what I'm doing? I guess so. I COULD be struck by lighting the next time I leave my house. Anything is possible.

Again, I just want those of you searching/looking/hoping for a system to know that you CAN beat sports.. I do it every month, and NOBODY can tell me it doesn't work... believe me, if I can do it, so can you. It's not complicated (I'm just not that smart ;) so don't make it so... I truly wish you the best and DON'T GIVE UP...

Please don't reply with negative thinking "it's impossible" posts... because I know it IS possible..I'm not a liar, I have no reason to. I don't know you, you don't know me. I'm not selling anything. I just want YOU to know that sports betting works... find something that you can practically do and make work for you!

I'll get off of my soapbox. It just makes my blood boil when I see someone saying "it's impossible" when I do it every day... bring on the naysayers ;)

Lol. Every game from 3 different sports huh? If this didn't happen so often, it would be funny. I think someone pays these people to come here and post this stuff. Not a bad idea actually.


ZCore13

I quit reading after "progression"

Quote: Johnzimbo

I quit reading after "progression"

I quit reading after I saw the word LOOSES in the title.

Last night I watched 'The Daily Wager', a fun show, actually. Each of the four handicappers gets to pick a best bet for the evening. They go through a detailed analysis and then sum up by saying, "my analysis shows team A should be 4 point favorite but the line is only 2, so I'll take Team A minus 2." No BS like its a can't lose bet. Just a slight edge in the picker's estimation. The fourth guy said, despite a bunch of NBA and NHL games, and dozens of college games, that he has NO pick for the night!
My feeling is the VAST MAJORITY of games have a pointspread that makes NEITHER side a good bet when accounting for the vig. So the OP claiming he bets hundreds of games shows this is not anything factual. If we start seeing pictures of money and Rolexes.....

It's amazing to me to see all the negative responses though I expected it since most of you lose consistently, and therefore think NOBODY can win... Please understand I'm not trying to convince you of anything EXCEPT for the fact that sports betting IS beatable... I'm trying to upload a screenshot of my month results but do not seem to be able to figure out how on this board ...(as of yesterday, Jan 16 2020, I'm up over 10k with $100 base units)... Baseball this year I ended up at $39k... Football has been my "worse" case example this year, "only" made $10k for the season... I don't bet Soccer because of the tie component...

I treat this as a business...YOU should as well...

If I showed you what and how I'm doing this, you would have IDENTICAL results, as the system is totally mechanical.. no decisions are made by me except for what the system dictates...If your not having similar results, you doing it WRONG... or at least your not doing it to make money..

Anyway, if someone can show me how to upload a g of my spreadsheet screenshot on this board, I'm happy to do so periodically so you can see I can't help but make money...

And please, if your a dis-believer, just keep doing what YOUR doing... hows that working out for ya???

If everyone bet this way the bookies would all shut down...

Quote: audionut

It's amazing to me to see all the negative responses though I expected it since most of you lose consistently, and therefore think NOBODY can win... Please understand I'm not trying to convince you of anything EXCEPT for the fact that sports betting IS beatable... I'm trying to upload a screenshot of my month results but do not seem to be able to figure out how on this board ...(as of yesterday, Jan 16 2020, I'm up over 10k with $100 base units)... Baseball this year I ended up at $39k... Football has been my "worse" case example this year, "only" made $10k for the season... I don't bet Soccer because of the tie component...

I treat this as a business...YOU should as well...

If I showed you what and how I'm doing this, you would have IDENTICAL results, as the system is totally mechanical.. no decisions are made by me except for what the system dictates...If your not having similar results, you doing it WRONG... or at least your not doing it to make money..

Anyway, if someone can show me how to upload a g of my spreadsheet screenshot on this board, I'm happy to do so periodically so you can see I can't help but make money...

And please, if your a dis-believer, just keep doing what YOUR doing... hows that working out for ya???

If everyone bet this way the bookies would all shut down...

Your spreadsheet, or any other picture of your past wins and results is completely worthless.

You bet every game in every sport, and you win every month. Well go ahead and fill us in on who’s going to win tonight’s games. Post your picks right here in this thread.

Quote: audionut

I'm trying to upload a screenshot of my month results

Worthless, if you are trying to make a point.

Make your selections for tonight's games and maybe the next week or 2.

Quote: SOOPOO

Last night I watched 'The Daily Wager', a fun show, actually.

What network? Time Zone?

Quote: SOOPOO

My feeling is the VAST MAJORITY of games have a pointspread that makes NEITHER side a good bet when accounting for the vig.

Probably true, but then again, my seminar price is real cheap!

Make it simple. Two football games going on Sunday. Your bets please!

So you made 39k on baseball, 10k on football, and let’s say 30k on the NBA, treating it like a business. So 79k?

If I made that I’d quit and do something else.

Quote: audionut

Please understand I'm not trying to convince you of anything

Quote: audionut

EXCEPT for the fact that sports betting IS beatable

Define ironic...."I'm not trying to convince you of anything, except I am".

The only two systems that I ever believed in are counting, and, to a much lesser extent, beating the house via a comp set-up.

In theory this could work on a game where there is no tie such as baseball. I'd be willing to concede, via a Martingdale that no team will lose 162 games in a row. Putting the bankroll considerations aside since you have plenty of backers, and taking into assumption that your team has no travel days, it would take 22 days/games (the current winning streak in baseball history) to win your bet.

22 days to win five or ten dollars....I think Chic-Fil-A pays better and I can think of more productive ways to use my time to make money.

Quote: audionut

Hello!

Hiya! So I've got a bunch to say, and as someone whom bets sports with a winning edge (and is a full time professional gambler), I hope you'll at least take my comments in to consideration. It's well documented by professionals that sports betting is beatable, however, there are 4 different ways of going about it (maybe you found a new 5th?). At first I thought you were referring to one of the ways, but as I read your post it became quite apparent that you weren't using any of the 4 mathematically proven methods. So this led me to look more in to your post...

Quote: audionut

...I bet almost EVERY GAME in the sports that I follow...

Red Flag #1... There is absolutely no winning sports betting strategy that bets every single game. Sometimes the bookmakers just nail the number right where all the math, trends and angles, etc, etc, etc, says it should be. Thus, if you bet this game, irregardless of your system, I know for a fact you're not betting with a positive edge.

Interesting tidbit: While it is possible to get an edge on ANY game, it absolutely isn't possible to get an edge on EVERY game. Well, I'll agree with you, it might be technically possible, but absolutely 100% not real life practical. Like if you knew every single player on every single team personally and they told you who was sitting/playing, feeling good/bad, etc, etc, etc. Again, possible, not practical.

Quote: audionut

.. I make AT MINIMUM 100 units per month...EVERY...MONTH....

Red Flag #2... Absolutely no system, in any shape, form, or capacity, can dodge variance. Variance is the natural swings you're going to take betting anything up to and including a fair 50/50 coin flip. NO ONE will call every flip right... or in your example (let's say you bet 200 games per month), NO ONE will call the "majority" correctly EVERY 200 flips. Variance is what gives us our SD's which is what defines our cone of reality, mathematically speaking. Variance means you can be a card counter, do it perfectly, and still lose 5 trips in a row. Variance is a short term piece of the puzzle that no Sports Bettor, short of being omniscient, can avoid. I'm not telling you this as my opinion, that's a mathematical fact.

Quote: audionut

Please understand that I'm not just "lucky", and these numbers are not an exception... it's real. I just NEVER have a losing month...I MEAN NEVER...

Red Flags #3 and #4. Do you know your EV +/- SD's? Have you hit N(0), which is a large enough sample size to remove variance? If you haven't, then you absolutely cannot make this statement. Even a card counting doing everything PERFECT (so yes they have a 1-2% edge) can win 5 sessions in a row and STILL JUST HAVE GOTTEN LUCKY IN THE SHORT TERM. So unless you've bet ~200,000+ games, you mathematically cannot say you're not just getting lucky, even if you have a winning or losing system.

Quote: audionut

Anything is possible.

Ironically, according to math, no, no it's not. No matter if you're betting with a "winning system" or a losing one, you have a set defined Expected Value (EV) and Standard Deviations (SD's) that will mathematically guarantee you're in a cone of results that slims over time as your sample size (number of bets) increases. Use the search function on this site for a thread called "18 yo's in a row" referring to craps =D (lol).

Quote: audionut

Please don't reply with negative thinking "it's impossible" posts...

Red Flag #5. In the scientific community do you know how everyone agrees on something? Someone makes an assertions and then they put it out to the world for everyone to criticize and TRY to prove wrong. When they put it out to the world and no one can prove it wrong over some time, then we accept it as scientifically accurate. Only touts say "don't say negative things, man!" like they take it like some kind of personal attack. I'm not attacking you, nor your system, I'm simply trying to say if you say "this is a fact"... then prove it. Otherwise, you have no right to say "this is a fact."

So since you win, each, and every single month, post your picks on here. ALL of your picks (can't hide and say oh I won these other 100 picks you guys didn't know about). And you must post them BEFORE the games start, with your taken line/odds (the odds as you stated are very, very important). No one will be able to ascertain your system, since you bet every single game, and this will be purely to keep a 1 month record to see if you do indeed live up to your "MINIMUM 100 UNITS EACH AND EVERY MONTH" claim. Should be pretty simple for you if it's the truth. Good luck.

So funny...NOBODY knows my system or how I bet it, yet EVERYBODY says it doesn't work. LOL...

The whole reason I started this thread was to hopefully give some of you inspiration that it can be done... but instead of motivating you to develop something that works for you, I get "show me...post picks....let us see....blah blah blah..." Like I'm going to give away something that I have spent years to develop. LOL...

I mentioned in my first post that I'm not selling anything, please, just keep doing what YOUR doing... I don't care if you believe me or not...I also mentioned that someday I may write a book about this; you can then all try it yourself... But you ARE betting sports wrong...How do I know? Cause your LOSING MONEY.

I truly wish you all the best.... I've definitely wasted enough time here... now you may continue your closed-minded ignorant rants about something you know absolutely nothing about... CYA..

Quote: audionut

So funny...NOBODY knows my system or how I bet it, yet EVERYBODY says it doesn't work. LOL...

The whole reason I started this thread was to hopefully give some of you inspiration that it can be done... but instead of motivating you to develop something that works for you, I get "show me...post picks....let us see....blah blah blah..." Like I'm going to give away something that I have spent years to develop. LOL...

I mentioned in my first post that I'm not selling anything, please, just keep doing what YOUR doing... I don't care if you believe me or not...I also mentioned that someday I may write a book about this; you can then all try it yourself... But you ARE betting sports wrong...How do I know? Cause your LOSING MONEY.

I truly wish you all the best.... I've definitely wasted enough time here... now you may continue your closed-minded ignorant rants about something you know absolutely nothing about... CYA..

I must’ve missed your picks for tonight.


As far as your picks giving away your system , I don’t think you need to worry about that. You don’t even have to explain how you came up with them. And I promise you I’d put zero minutes into trying to figure it out. I’d just daydream about all the nice things I could have if I was your bookie

Quote: audionut

So funny...NOBODY knows my system or how I bet it, yet EVERYBODY says it doesn't work. LOL...

The whole reason I started this thread was to hopefully give some of you inspiration that it can be done... but instead of motivating you to develop something that works for you, I get "show me...post picks....let us see....blah blah blah..." Like I'm going to give away something that I have spent years to develop. LOL...

I mentioned in my first post that I'm not selling anything, please, just keep doing what YOUR doing... I don't care if you believe me or not...I also mentioned that someday I may write a book about this; you can then all try it yourself... But you ARE betting sports wrong...How do I know? Cause your LOSING MONEY.

I truly wish you all the best.... I've definitely wasted enough time here... now you may continue your closed-minded ignorant rants about something you know absolutely nothing about... CYA..

You have 2 choices. Come back and tell us when your system starts falling back in line with reality, which it eventually will. Or, keep making up your stories and try another forum with people that are not as smart.


ZCore13

Quote: audionut

So funny...NOBODY knows my system or how I bet it, yet EVERYBODY says it doesn't work. LOL...

The whole reason I started this thread was to hopefully give some of you inspiration that it can be done... but instead of motivating you to develop something that works for you, I get "show me...post picks....let us see....blah blah blah..." Like I'm going to give away something that I have spent years to develop. LOL...

I mentioned in my first post that I'm not selling anything, please, just keep doing what YOUR doing... I don't care if you believe me or not...I also mentioned that someday I may write a book about this; you can then all try it yourself... But you ARE betting sports wrong...How do I know? Cause your LOSING MONEY.

I truly wish you all the best.... I've definitely wasted enough time here... now you may continue your closed-minded ignorant rants about something you know absolutely nothing about... CYA..

Well before you go, just a Rolex or two pictured, the suite your in etc, etc.

Quote: audionut

The whole reason I started this thread was to hopefully give some of you inspiration that it can be done

LOL...no you didn't. You posted this to hear yourself talk.

There's nothing useful here. Inspiration? LOL.....What is this, Father Flanagan and Boys Town?

Your posts are all claims but have no content. You protest against our criticism on the grounds that we don't know what your system is - but you haven't told us what it is. And I suspect that you will never tell us what it is.

You say you can quickly evaluate all the games in all these sports and make your picks -that it is "automatic" and "mechanical." This sounds like a system built on progressive "size of wager." Some of us understand that subject with great clarity.

A number of people have suggested you post your picks (and wager sizes) prior to the start of games for a period of time. You have neither complied with nor even acknowledged these suggestions.

Nobody in the world acquires a reputation for "being great" by merely telling other people that they are great. You are like the guy that stands at the foot of the bed and tells the lady in the bed, over and over, what a great lover you are.

So far, you have not inspired any of us and done nothing more than waste electrons.

Glad this new(?) poster came by. This place is dead without MDawg. Pretty much walking in the same steps too. Hmmmm

the oddest thing is the OP does not go to the tried and true when it comes to making money selling a sports betting scam

what you do is try to reach thousands of players and offer them free tips. Out of those, some of them are going to be impressed how you called it! When actually all you did was make some guesses, mixing it up [important]. I can't help but notice this lure was not dangled.

You're going to have a few quite willing to pay you money now for more tips

Idiots always try to reinvent the wheel

Okay, I'm surprised at the naivete and lack of sophistication and lack of any factual historical references here, so I'll respond. I am not, obviously, defending the original poster in any fashion here. Just laying out facts.

1) Nobody who wins is going to just post their plays on a public forum for a long length of time unless serious money is involved. Now I will test the membership here and ask, what are the reasons this might be? C'mon, guys, there are obvious reasons. take a few shots.

2) Back in the 80's and 90's, there were formal monitoring services. Eventually, the best ones died out because very few handicappers generated multi-year profits. The monitors that survived went the sleaze route, allowing multiple versions of the same service or coordinated entries under different names. Look up "Tipsters or Gypsters?" by former Seattle Times reporter, Mike McCusker for the most reputable publication that monitored handicappers. He coined the terms "scamdicapper" and "trendsvestite." His annual volumes (football and hoops) also included character references and personal history notes.

3) If you allow an anonymous internet name to post plays, it proves nothing. Unless someone posts under their own, real name, how do you know the same person isn't anonymously posting a thousand different lineup arrays on a thousand different internet locations?

4) Most of the more reputable "selling plays" handicappers these days function as pay-after-you-win. This tactic, which is in my opinion on higher ground than a fast food joint selling crap food that tastes good, basically flips the odds so the handicapper doing so has an edge versus bookmakers. Nothing inherently wrong with that as long as the advertising is truthful. And the customers/players can benefit if they win, so both the handicappers and players can theoretically come out ahead.

5) Here's a quick anecdote that highlights why no reputable handicapper is pushing old cliched scams to sell plays. I was in a public online competition about 12/13 years ago. I won 17 in a row and went 66-34 ATS overall. There were only 40-some reputable handicappers in the contest, but I did not win. Did not really come close. One guy was, as is the cliché, on absolute fire with Pac 12 and Mountain West totals. So I finished second. Do you know how many clients I picked up from that? None. Zero. The point being:

6) People are arrogant and think they can win themselves. Look at the population here. Honestly, most posters here probably think that some type of mathematical knowledge and conscientiousness can yield a winning record. It can't. It does not. I'm not sure what record is necessary to hit the sweet spot of believability and impressiveness, but 66-34 ATS wasn't it. So no reputable handicapper is going to post plays publicly in an attempt to "impress" anyone and garner clients. It's just silly. What would I, for example, hope for? Would 70-30 ATS be good enough? A once-in-a-lifetime record? LOL. It's silly.

7) There are so few high stakes sports bettors, fishing at sites like this is undoubtedly a waste of time. You really do acquire your reputation through your historical effectiveness in public contests and through interacting with other handicappers, bookmakers, and sports books.

The level of naivete in the responses to this dude was driving me nuts, so forgive the pedantry. Now, why would an actual winning handicapper NOT post his or her plays on a public site in his or her own name? The answers are obvious.

Welcome back to the forum, Joel.

Quote: SM777

Welcome back to the forum, Joel.

Definitely someone we seen before.

Quote: redietz

Okay, I'm surprised at the naivete and lack of sophistication and lack of any factual historical references here, so I'll respond. I am not, obviously, defending the original poster in any fashion here. Just laying out facts.

1) Nobody who wins is going to just post their plays on a public forum for a long length of time unless serious money is involved. Now I will test the membership here and ask, what are the reasons this might be? C'mon, guys, there are obvious reasons. take a few shots.

2) Back in the 80's and 90's, there were formal monitoring services. Eventually, the best ones died out because very few handicappers generated multi-year profits. The monitors that survived went the sleaze route, allowing multiple versions of the same service or coordinated entries under different names. Look up "Tipsters or Gypsters?" by former Seattle Times reporter, Mike McCusker for the most reputable publication that monitored handicappers. He coined the terms "scamdicapper" and "trendsvestite." His annual volumes (football and hoops) also included character references and personal history notes.

3) If you allow an anonymous internet name to post plays, it proves nothing. Unless someone posts under their own, real name, how do you know the same person isn't anonymously posting a thousand different lineup arrays on a thousand different internet locations?

4) Most of the more reputable "selling plays" handicappers these days function as pay-after-you-win. This tactic, which is in my opinion on higher ground than a fast food joint selling crap food that tastes good, basically flips the odds so the handicapper doing so has an edge versus bookmakers. Nothing inherently wrong with that as long as the advertising is truthful. And the customers/players can benefit if they win, so both the handicappers and players can theoretically come out ahead.

5) Here's a quick anecdote that highlights why no reputable handicapper is pushing old cliched scams to sell plays. I was in a public online competition about 12/13 years ago. I won 17 in a row and went 66-34 ATS overall. There were only 40-some reputable handicappers in the contest, but I did not win. Did not really come close. One guy was, as is the cliché, on absolute fire with Pac 12 and Mountain West totals. So I finished second. Do you know how many clients I picked up from that? None. Zero. The point being:

6) People are arrogant and think they can win themselves. Look at the population here. Honestly, most posters here probably think that some type of mathematical knowledge and conscientiousness can yield a winning record. It can't. It does not. I'm not sure what record is necessary to hit the sweet spot of believability and impressiveness, but 66-34 ATS wasn't it. So no reputable handicapper is going to post plays publicly in an attempt to "impress" anyone and garner clients. It's just silly. What would I, for example, hope for? Would 70-30 ATS be good enough? A once-in-a-lifetime record? LOL. It's silly.

7) There are so few high stakes sports bettors, fishing at sites like this is undoubtedly a waste of time. You really do acquire your reputation through your historical effectiveness in public contests and through interacting with other handicappers, bookmakers, and sports books.

The level of naivete in the responses to this dude was driving me nuts, so forgive the pedantry. Now, why would an actual winning handicapper NOT post his or her plays on a public site in his or her own name? The answers are obvious.

If I enter any sports betting centric forum and poll 100 of them in there individually...90 of them are going to tell me they are making regular bank. If I tell each of those 90 that it’s running 9 of 10 making cash....they will each tell me the others are bullshitting me.

“But not you, right”...?

“Correct...I’m giving you the truth”

This threader starter is a 90. I never knew so many handicappers beating the odds until I joined the internet. Amazing.

My point....everyone has a story about someone else, what others are doing, what others are scamming, what others are claiming....yet he/she is giving the straight poop. There are no facts in this. A bunch of opinions, yes. That’s about it.

My subjective estimate of number of handicappers winning long term in this country is ballpark a hundred individuals or teams. It's my best guesstimate.

I have no idea if any of the previous comments were directed at me, but I don't recruit clients, and haven't for more than a decade. I'm one of those folks in the old "Tipsters or Gypsters?" annual volumes. I was the only handicapper to finish first in college profit three different years. I've been in the invitation-only Wise Guys Contest for more than 30 years. My record in that is public. I was recruited by Billy Walters to work with him. Mr. Walters vets people pretty stringently.

Every six or seven years, I'll have a losing year. And 80% of my wagering volume is college football.

If anybody doubts my integrity, they can try to contact me and partner up with me. Use any means at your disposal and offer any amount you think would work. It won't.

Now, any bright lads come up with why it's a real bad idea to publicly post plays in an effort to impress anyone?

Quote: redietz

Now, any bright lads come up with why it's a real bad idea to publicly post plays in an effort to impress anyone?

No more or less a bad idea than anyone else having a need to claim they are one of the few that “glitters” in the sports betting world.

The above is obviously a non-answer.

The reason I responded here was because, for an ostensibly "gambling-educated" site, the answers were so naïve. If I felt somebody was responding with info that fractionally overlapped mine, I would not have bothered. It's obviously a pain in the ass to respond. I gain nothing.

When I can actually fill in the blanks and allow people to make more reasoned, data and history-based comments, then I feel obligated to do so. The responses to the original poster lacked any sports-betting savvy or sophistication.

Quote: redietz

The above is obviously a non-answer.

The reason I responded here was because, for an ostensibly "gambling-educated" site, the answers were so naïve. If I felt somebody was responding with info that fractionally overlapped mine, I would not have bothered. It's obviously a pain in the ass to respond. I gain nothing.

When I can actually fill in the blanks and allow people to make more reasoned, data and history-based comments, then I feel obligated to do so. The responses to the original poster lacked any sports-betting savvy or sophistication.

And you think the original poster had sports betting saavy or sophistication??

He offered....inspiration? Beyond that he was chiding everyone else for being a “loser”.

The consensus was post some picks and let’s see how you do. I see nothing wrong with that considering he was the one who felt the need for some affirmation. There’s no greater affirmation than put up or shut up.

The only thing I saw was the word “progression”....Which should raise red flags immediately.

At least the guy in the other thread was putting up picks. Didn’t work....but credit for not just talk.

Quote: redietz

The above is obviously a non-answer.

The reason I responded here was because, for an ostensibly "gambling-educated" site, the answers were so naïve. If I felt somebody was responding with info that fractionally overlapped mine, I would not have bothered. It's obviously a pain in the ass to respond. I gain nothing.

When I can actually fill in the blanks and allow people to make more reasoned, data and history-based comments, then I feel obligated to do so. The responses to the original poster lacked any sports-betting savvy or sophistication.

So when someone joins a gambling forum, and starts a thread saying “I bet sports, I bet every game, I never have a losing month, and I win tens of thousands”...

You think asking that person to post some plays is a poor response ?

Yes I do. It was a dumb response, and I'll explain why.

His claims were obviously ridiculous. A parody. Nobody with an ounce of experience would take what he said as indicative of anything but begging to get inundated with "You're an ass. Do you take us for fools?" I mean, c'mon, it was worse than the "Dog Who Never Loses." This guy says that he bets every game, wins every month, a hundred units a month. It was a joke. Comedy. Eye rolling stuff.

So what does telling him to post his plays accomplish? Nothing. If he's on a hundred different sites under a hundred different names, one of those names goes off on some 12-2 run or something, and all it does is give him credence on that one site...if everybody says "go ahead and post your plays." If he fails on 99 sites, so what? If he fails on them all, so what? He comes back a week, a month later and does the same thing on these or a hundred different sites under a different name.

Instead of saying, "Go ahead and post your plays," it would be better to just go the rote method and explain how impossible what he is saying actually is. The word "progression" obviously is a big part of that. "Progression" takes what he is claiming out of the realm of "game of opinion," which can be beaten, or "rigged game," which can be beaten, and puts it firmly into the realm of math. And math is merciless.

The fact he is going to use a progression means that, like a video poker player using progressions, his session win rate may be quite high. So if this guy constructs his "sessions" to be 12 or 16 or 20 games with no limit in sight, he is going to come out ahead on a high number of sessions and sites...much higher than if he were just straight playing everything for the same amounts as in paragraph two above. All you do by inviting him to post plays is giving him a greater avenue to impress unsophisticated bettors.

Debunk the progression. Then explain what is possible.

Anyway, while I'm typing, here are the reasons no winning handicappers are going to post any significant volume of plays for free on some site to impress people.

1) Whether you're using formal angles or just your own private emphases and priorities, virtually every handicapper is going to have some pattern or profile than can be data mined, given enough plays. If you put those plays in a public place, and allow them to be data mined for free, you are cutting your own throat quickly and efficiently. It's relatively common knowledge what my emphases are, but the way I actually wager, I can't really be data mined by sports books. I'm sure some of the bright minds here can figure out ways to hinder data mining when gambling, but just posting plays as opposed to betting is naked.

2) If you offer any significant volume of free plays, you are making available for free what other people are paying for. That tends to make the people paying for them very unhappy.

3) Nothing you accomplish with the free plays is going to be convincing enough to garner enough clients to offset the potential data mining and the ticking off of paying customers.

Quote: redietz

Anyway, while I'm typing, here are the reasons no winning handicappers are going to post any significant volume of plays for free on some site to impress people. . .
.

Most winning handicappers don't go onto a gambling site as a newcomer and start claiming that they win all the time on every sport betting every game - and then pompously state that their desire is to "inspire" other sports bettors. For those handicappers, who clearly seek to impress people and build a national reputation, it is perfectly valid and sensible to suggest that they post some picks to offer some shred of evidence that they should be believed.

Most winning handicappers are content to win money without seeking public acclaim. I agree that for those anonymous winning handicappers, we should not ask them to post their winning picks.

I repeat: the OP is like the guy that stands at the foot of the bed and tells the lady in the bed, over and over again, what a great lover he is. And after awhile, the lady thinks he is delusional or worse, because he won't get into bed and prove it. Now plenty of other men also don't get into bed with this lady, but they don't stand at the foot of her bed claiming to be a great lover.

No one in the world gains a reputation as being great by simply claiming they are great. Because, lets face it, there are far more liars in the world than great men.

Quote: gordonm888

Most winning handicappers don't go onto a gambling site as a newcomer and start claiming that they win all the time on every sport betting every game - and then pompously state that their desire is to "inspire" other sports bettors.

Yep.

Quote: gordonm888

For those handicappers, who clearly seek to impress people and build a national reputation, it is perfectly valid and sensible to suggest that they post some picks to offer some shred of evidence that they should be believed.

Yep

Quote: gordonnm888

Most winning handicappers are content to win money without seeking public acclaim.

Yep

Quote: gordonnm888

I repeat: the OP is like the guy that stands at the foot of the bed and tells the lady in the bed, over and over again, what a great lover he is. And after awhile, the lady thinks he is delusional or worse, because he won't get into bed and prove it. Now plenty of other men also don't get into bed with this lady, but they don't stand at the foot of her bed claiming to be a great lover.

Yep

If someone truly wants belief or affirmation....post some GD picks. It's not the end game...it's a start.

I was asked to take a look at this thread and offer my insight: I don't have much.

For one thing, Redietz said he is not defending the original poster, simply making an observation as to why, if the original poster is the real deal, (which Redietz states he strongly believes he is not) even then the original poster would have no reason to post any plays. Redietz also correctly points out that the system can be gamed by posting plays at a number of different sites, under a number of different names and then you might have one that gets lucky and looks like he knows what he is doing.

Further, if anyone really wanted to prove they can pick at a winning rate, here is my suggestion, and I will kindly offer my assistance:

1.) PM me your picks prior to any games being bet.

2.) Put a date in the subject that says, DO NOT OPEN until after (date).

3.) I will not open the PM until the games are finished.

4.) I will faithfully disclose the Picks that were made.

But, again, it gets back to Redietz's point that ten, twenty, 100 different accounts could do this that are all the same person. Some people here might know this is how the E-Mail, "Free Picks," thing worked to get paid picks, in some cases. You would E-Mail the customers a couple of lines that were opposed. Here's how:

Team A Covers against Team B AND Team C Covers against Team D (25%)

Team B Covers against Team A AND Team C Covers against Team D (25%)

Team A Covers against Team B AND Team D Covers against Team C (25%)

Team B Covers against Team A AND Team D Covers against Team C (25%)

Barring pushes on the spread, now you have 25% of the people who won two games, 50% of the people who went 1-1 and 25% of the people lost both games.

Condolences to the big losers, you lose both games sometimes, but in the long run...blah, blah, blah. At that point, you could either make a big push with two more games to try to get them all back to 50/50 win rate or diversify what you're sending to who.

Congratulations to the big winners! We're off to a great start for the season, which is no surprise. Now, he can diversify his picks again in such a way that any of the winners could end up 4-0, some of them will end up being 2-2 and some others (barring pushes) will win one and lose one still showing a 3-1 record overall.

---This is a really simplified version of the concept, by the way.

Anyway, we have way too many websites and internet users sharing information for that to work too well now. I forget the thread, but it has been reported on here that Mr. Golden Touch was getting shellacked as of NFL Week 16, or something.

But, back in the day, the winners would never question the process. Why the hell would they? They're winning! The losers would likely be asked why are they paying for Picks in the first place. Most of the losers would be unwilling to complain publicly, anyway, because then they would have to admit to buying picks off of folks.

****Redietz also goes into detail on the progression-based stuff. He is quite correct. A progression (with infinite bankroll) is only a long-term winner provided the underlying proposition (the bets themselves) have a winning expectation. If the bets fail to themselves meet that criteria, then any progression will be a long-term loser.

****The underlying picks would have to be shown to be successful before any progression can become theoretically viable. Redietz says, "Debunk the progression," and I say it's already debunked by sports betting inherently being a negative proposition. I don't even need to know what the progression is to know it sucks unless the underlying propositions are winning ones. But, again, that goes back to proving one's Picks which, for any number of reasons, there is no reason for a person to want to do. And also, even if a person did want to do it, there are ways to game even demonstrating that proof.

Mission146: I don't have much to say about this.

Also Mission146: Types nearly 700 words on the subject that he purportedly has nothing to discuss.

Quote: Mission146

Mission146: I don't have much to say about this.

Also Mission146: Types nearly 700 words on the subject that he purportedly has nothing to discuss.

Poster said cya, and hasn’t come back here since the 17th. So yes, it was 700 words too many.

We have a poster on a dice board that has a system currently with a 70% win rate, picks one basket ball game per night, posts his pick before. His system has to do with points scored in previous game played. We will see, not moving to Mississippi anytime soon.

Quote:

I truly wish you all the best.... I've definitely wasted enough time here... now you may continue your closed-minded ignorant rants about something you know absolutely nothing about... CYA..

Well, since you won't be back*, I won't bother giving you the suspension for the insult implied here.

But if you're (likely) lurking, or you do post again, please note the use of "you're" earlier in this sentence.

General statement, not aimed at the OP in particular, though obviously inspired by all 3 of his posts: It's a strong indication that you're not nearly as smart as your posts claim you are, if you don't know the difference between "loose" and "lose", "you're" and "your", "their" and "they're", and other common words.

Just sayin'. I can take a few typos here and there in anybody's post, but after about the 14th misuse of "your" in only 3 posts, I was sold...on this thread being based on complete nonsense.

Winning betting strategies require attention to detail and precision. Illiteracy can be an important clue as to whether someone has the talents necessary to a consistent winner. In this case, verdict is, nopedy-nope. I hope you enjoy all your winnings, sincerely. But you're right - there's nothing for you here. CYA indeed.

* I'm offering facetious odds at 3:1 he will post again, or at least lurk the forum for a while.

Thanks for taking a look, Mission.

My memory sometimes fails me, so I'd forgotten about that, but Mission's offer to monitor brought back a gem. Here's a scary anecdote regarding the origins of "Danny Sheridan," who was originally "Danny Schachter," and who now occupies handicapper emeritus status at various and sundry media outlets including national television networks and (formerly, I believe) USA Today.

Schachter was a real estate salesman, in Atlanta I believe. He had a local sportswriter monitor his plays. Schachter would deliver an envelope with his plays to the sportswriter prior to the weekend. The sealed envelope would go into a drawer, and the writer would open it come Monday. Schachter won more than 85% of a high volume of plays. The writer was impressed, did some pieces, and Sports Illustrated picked up the story, featuring the now-Danny Sheridan in a full-page back-of-the-magazine feature. It was 1974 or thereabouts.

Well, overnight, "Danny Sheridan" became famous, gazillions of people wanted his plays, and he quit the real estate gig.

Some knowledgeable people (including Jimmy "the Greek") contacted SI and privately told them the claims had to be nonsense. Sports Illustrated decided to chart "Sheridan's" plays for a year. A year later, after a 47% or thereabouts run, SI did a back-page heads-up article.

Too late, as it turns out. "Sheridan's" reputation had been made, and here he is, 45 years later, still famous.

I have copies of the original and the caveat articles lying around here some place. Probably in the garage. Anyway, there's a prime example of how folks weasel around reality.

How was it done? Well, the writer who received the envelopes could have simply been a scumbag. Or "Sheridan" had an accomplice in the same building. Or maybe it was an old magician's trick when the envelope was opened. One thing was certain -- it wasn't Schachter walking on football fields and having premonitions, which is what he reported in the SI article.

Quote: beachbumbabs

General statement, not aimed at the OP in particular, though obviously inspired by all 3 of his posts: It's a strong indication that you're not nearly as smart as your posts claim you are, if you don't know the difference between "loose" and "lose", "you're" and "your", "their" and "they're", and other common words.

I noticed that as well, but I'm willing to give some leeway as English may not be the OP's first language. We all see this from time to time on these forums.

I am not willing to give leeway in the fact you come here, state that we don't know what we're talking about without some attempt to back it up. I, in fact, have asked a number of times, "can one win at sports betting?", and have yet to be convinced one can over the long run.

Post some winning picks. We're not asking for why, just the picks. I give 1000x props to the guy who tried it the last few months. He didn't win, but he was open and not one post I read asked for his 'secret sauce'.

Interesting story, and you're welcome!

Naturally, in the case of the PM's, I would not delete them. I guess the only way to, "Game," it would be if the same sender were to send me a bunch of PM's all with different things, like every possible combination of three picks, five picks, whatever. At that point, I could theoretically delete all of the PM's that were not, "Good," retaining only the good one. Screenshots could then be taken of the, "Good," PM's, with a couple bad weeks thrown in for good measure and the person could look...not necessarily all-elite...but very, very good.

I wouldn't do that, though, but people would also have to believe that I did not do that. Because of that, the Picks themselves could still be fairly questioned as being illegitimate.

Offer still stands, but I'd prefer not to be taken up on it and doubt that I would be.

Send me a PM when you''ve made enough from your systems to buy a casino from Steve Wynn. Via con Dino's.

I appreciate the offer, Mission, but it's unnecessary. I have timed/dated emails to my partners stretching back a decade that list every play we made, so there's a solid record in case anybody feels like debating me. Before that, most of my plays were posted in the Marc Lawrence Playbook phone/email systems. Prior to that, I was monitored by "Tipsters or Gypsters?" for 12 years or so. "Tipsters or Gypsters?" even had multiyear records on its back page, so you could see five-year records.

Basically, I wager for the 12 weeks of the college football regular season. Outside of futures and hedging, that 12 weeks is 80% of the betting volume. Now today we have SF at 20-1 and 40-1 to win the NFC, se we hedged that almost completely, given the GB moneyline. If you looked overall at betting volume including the hedges, it would appear that we have substantial NFL wagers, but we really do not.

Note for complete transparency:

We lost our other, smaller futures. We had Michigan State for small amounts at long odds to win the Big 10 and gazillion odds to win national title. We also had Air Force at 11-1 to win the Mountain West. We hedged a little bit the opening AF game (at Boise), so made back about 30% of the initial wager on that. So those two were losers. The Air Force hurt, as they were clearly the second best team in the conference, but were in Boise's division.

Quote: redietz

I appreciate the offer, Mission, but it's unnecessary. I have timed/dated emails to my partners stretching back a decade that list every play we made, so there's a solid record in case anybody feels like debating me. Before that, most of my plays were posted in the Marc Lawrence Playbook phone/email systems. Prior to that, I was monitored by "Tipsters or Gypsters?" for 12 years or so. "Tipsters or Gypsters?" even had multiyear records on its back page, so you could see five-year records.

Basically, I wager for the 12 weeks of the college football regular season. Outside of futures and hedging, that 12 weeks is 80% of the betting volume. Now today we have SF at 20-1 and 40-1 to win the NFC, se we hedged that almost completely, given the GB moneyline. If you looked overall at betting volume including the hedges, it would appear that we have substantial NFL wagers, but we really do not.

Note for complete transparency:

We lost our other, smaller futures. We had Michigan State for small amounts at long odds to win the Big 10 and gazillion odds to win national title. We also had Air Force at 11-1 to win the Mountain West. We hedged a little bit the opening AF game (at Boise), so made back about 30% of the initial wager on that. So those two were losers. The Air Force hurt, as they were clearly the second best team in the conference, but were in Boise's division.

No one is interested in anyone’s “past performance claims”....nor are they interested in claims of 20-1 or 40-1 after the team is already in the conference finals.

Complete transparency is you pick a team before the game....list it here and the results are tracked....just like the guy who started a thread with his picks.

Complete transparency is NOT listing games that you claim to have won and lost. Complete transparency is picking the games that are coming up....BEFORE game time.

Quote: TDVegas

No one is interested in anyone’s “past performance claims”....nor are they interested in claims of 20-1 or 40-1 after the team is already in the conference finals.

Complete transparency is you pick a team before the game....list it here and the results are tracked....just like the guy who started a thread with his picks.

Complete transparency is NOT listing games that you claim to have won and lost. Complete transparency is picking the games that are coming up....BEFORE game time.

LOL. Now see, this is one of the issues I have with this site. Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I think TDTony just impugned my integrity. Without coming out and calling me a liar, he called me a liar. Just in a nice enough manner to fall within the rules.

Now TD, how should I respond to this? Do you really think somebody posting under his actual name (R.E.Dietz) and with a pristine 40-year reputation as a professional handicapper, is going to come on this forum and fib just to impress the rubes? C'mon, man.

Normally, I would clown around and poke fun at you, but I'm feeling magnanimous, so I'll point something out and then give you a golden chance to be transparent (some anonymous folks do not like transparency, but I'm sure you do). And I'll give you a wonderful chance to make some money.

First off, you know, I just might have mentioned these futures before the season started, say in PMs to people at VCT. Just sayin'. Then, you know, since I already mentioned I have timed and dated emails to partners, I probably have those on file, also.

But I'm sure those kinds of things could be confusing to some gentle readers. So let's try this:

TD, how about I wager that I have exactly what I said I have, and if I do not, I give you 5K? Now, we need you to put something up against the 5K. Let's go with either (A) a hundred bucks or (B) fifty bucks, a cup of coffee and danish at the Golden Nugget, and an apology? You choose.

Assuming SF wins this thing, I need to cash one of the tickets at the Nugget anyway. Shackleford lives in LV, so you can send him the hundred or fifty dollars. I'll bring along the 5K. I'll show Shackleford the GN ticket at 20-1 and the offshore wager at 40-1. You can, of course, show up and offer the apology in person if you so choose. Or pick up the easy 5K if I'm talking out of my derriere.

Okay, TD. Put up or shut up time, my friend.

Quote: redietz

LOL. Now see, this is one of the issues I have with this site. Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I think TDTony just impugned my integrity. Without coming out and calling me a liar, he called me a liar. Just in a nice enough manner to fall within the rules.

Now TD, how should I respond to this? Do you really think somebody posting under his actual name (R.E.Dietz) and with a pristine 40-year reputation as a professional handicapper, is going to come on this forum and fib just to impress the rubes? C'mon, man.

Normally, I would clown around and poke fun at you, but I'm feeling magnanimous, so I'll point something out and then give you a golden chance to be transparent (some anonymous folks do not like transparency, but I'm sure you do). And I'll give you a wonderful chance to make some money.

First off, you know, I just might have mentioned these futures before the season started, say in PMs to people at VCT. Just sayin'. Then, you know, since I already mentioned I have timed and dated emails to partners, I probably have those on file, also.

But I'm sure those kinds of things could be confusing to some gentle readers. So let's try this:

TD, how about I wager that I have exactly what I said I have, and if I do not, I give you 5K? Now, we need you to put something up against the 5K. Let's go with either (A) a hundred bucks or (B) fifty bucks, a cup of coffee and danish at the Golden Nugget, and an apology? You choose.

Assuming SF wins this thing, I need to cash one of the tickets at the Nugget anyway. Shackleford lives in LV, so you can send him the hundred or fifty dollars. I'll bring along the 5K. I'll show Shackleford the GN ticket at 20-1 and the offshore wager at 40-1. You can, of course, show up and offer the apology in person if you so choose. Or pick up the easy 5K if I'm talking out of my derriere.

Okay, TD. Put up or shut up time, my friend.

Emails.....LOL.

can’t delete or omit the loser picks from your record, can you?

Please.

Like I said...post your future picks here as the other guy did. THAT IS transparency.

Who knows....maybe there are a bunch of losing tickets as well. We would never know. Maybe there’s an email in there with 3K on the Patriots.

How did you fare in missions pick contest? I googled R.E. Dietz....the only thing that came up was a lighting manufacturer. You name didn’t even rate as a sports picker.