Success with 10-3 (0)...4-7 (-1)...8-9 (+2) baccarat count with a +6 count....
I've counted only 8/9's. Only 10's. You name it. But until I read some pages on different websites and ran with these counts and hold until +6 count.
I ran through 6 shoes today and hit 4 dragons and 6 pandas. A few of those shoes were mid game. The one in particular is where I hit 2 pandas back to back, missed one and then hit a dragon. All within the first 25 hands. I could tell that the shoe was rich in 0-7 cards because I saw 2 pandas hit within the first 4 hands. After the dragon tie and a 3rd panda I moved over and saw the panda hit and banker cards with 1 middle and 2 neutral cards. I knew the count didn't move by much. That's when I hit 3 bounses out of 4 hands.
I've found that if a shoe has 2 bonus hits within the first 10-15 hands. It's a high card count. And keep watching for 0/-1 cards. The count doesn't change by much. If the count was high (+9) a +8 is still worth betting.
If a game is "dead" (no bonuses) the count is negative to neutral. Even if you start counting in the middle of a dead shoe. You are still waiting for a +6. So if for instance in 1 shoe. I started mid game. I started betting on +3 counts. Then I paused until the last quarter of the shoe when the count was rising. It rose all the way up to +15. I started on +6 and it jumped +6, +12, +15 real quick. I only placed $20 on dragon and $5-10 on panda at the time until I saw +15. I placed $50 on dragon to start and $10-15 on panda for 3 straight bets. The count was +15, +12, +8, +11. I hit a panda on a +8 and then hit a dragon +11. Panda hit was $375 and dragon was $600. I probably spent $300-400 to hit the $975.
The reason why this worked is because as the shoe was coming to a close. The +2 cards came out at the right time. Within the last 15 hands or so. Game was dead for 3/4 of the shoe. And it opened up in the last quarter. Even if I started mid shoe.
I didn't win on the rise. I won on the fall.
I came into the casino on a +4 count. After losing about $600-$650 in 3 hrs. I looked over my score cards and raised it to +6. After that I left with $200 profit and a new strategy.
The DS Count
Thoughts?
What's real is. I've never hit so many bonuses. A little over an hour and recovered all my losses. I'd say it was a $1100 swing after switching to a +6 count. Does a sim tell you to look back at your score card and start betting at a +6 instead of a +4?
This is not about beating a game. It's about being patient and betting at the right time.
Quote: DragonSniper
This is not about beating a game. It's about being patient and betting at the right time.
Congrats, you are member number 2,458 that thinks he/she can do that.
A couple other things you can do to help would be no get lots of rest and stay hydrated.
ZCore13
Actually, yes running sims is real world. I've programmed a lot of sims for different games. While I'm not for hire, other programmers are. If you really do have some "winning system" you should EASILY be able to afford a few hundred bucks for a programmer to literally, and most importantly mathematically, prove your system works. Most likely though, it'll probably end up coming back a loser like all the others =/.Quote: DragonSniperA billion sims? Lol...Well in the real world....with real people and real situations...
Or, you'll find there is a count for the main game that produces like $1/hour! Yippee!
I understand this game is about numbers. But just like any statistic there are other variables that cannot be simulated.
I've hit dragons after 0,0,1/0,0,0 on a -6 or less count before. There is no sim that can predict that....is there? (Not trying to sound like an a-hole)
Quote: RomesActually, yes running sims is real world. I've programmed a lot of sims for different games. While I'm not for hire, other programmers are. If you really do have some "winning system" you should EASILY be able to afford a few hundred bucks for a programmer to literally, and most importantly mathematically, prove your system works. Most likely though, it'll probably end up coming back a loser like all the others =/.
Or, you'll find there is a count for the main game that produces like $1/hour! Yippee!
Hes counting the dragon bet. Which is countable.
Quote: Zcore13Congrats, you are member number 2,458 that thinks he/she can do that.
A couple other things you can do to help would be no get lots of rest and stay hydrated.
ZCore13
With all due respect. I might be new to this site but I wasn't born yesterday. I've had more success my last 5 trips I've had in over 5 yrs of randomly just playing card games with a variation of these counts.
I'm trying to improve my odds not perfect them. Who knows these posts might spark another idea just like someone else's idea sparked mine.
Quote: DragonSniperWith all due respect. I might be new to this site but I wasn't born yesterday. I've had more success my last 5 trips I've had in over 5 yrs of randomly just playing card games with a variation of these counts.
I'm trying to improve my odds not perfect them. Who knows these posts might spark another idea just like someone else's idea sparked mine.
Are you betting on player and/or banker using your technique? Or just the dragon bet?
Quote: SOOPOOAre you betting on player and/or banker using your technique? Or just the dragon bet?
Only bonuses...
$5 dragon and $5 on panda bonuses on +3-5 count
$10-50 and $5-15 on +6 or higher
I'll try and hit the casino again by the end of the weekend for sure. I'll post results when I get back.
Quote: DragonSniper
I've hit dragons after 0,0,1/0,0,0 on a -6 or less count before. There is no sim that can predict that....is there? (Not trying to sound like an a-hole)
Of course there is.
Quote: sabreOf course there is.
Link?
Quote: DragonSniperLink?
You have to make it.
Quote: SOOPOOOK, DS. I think I got what you are doing and asking. Somewhere years ago there was a thread on counting those bets, and as a recent poster mentioned, they are theoretically countable. But that the expected value from doing so is so low it is not worth it on a per hour basis to make any reasonable amount of money. It's above my pay grade to do the analysis of exactly how often the count will make it a positive EV bet, and what your expected win would be.
In 1.5 hrs....I made $1100+...
I'm not following.... What am I missing?
Quote: DragonSniperIn 1.5 hrs....I made $1100+...
I'm not following.... What am I missing?
That's about as relevant as saying you ate a cheese sandwich while playing. It's a fun trip report, but has zero bearing on the quality of your "system".
Again, program and simulate a billion hands and get back to us with the results.
Quote: DragonSniperIn 1.5 hrs....I made $1100+...
I'm not following.... What am I missing?
Im not sure that length of time is sufficient to prove the viability of your system.
Quote: michael99000Im not sure that length of time x1000 is sufficient to prove the viability of your system.
Quote: billryanThis thread needs more Rolex photos.
I was thinking about that poster too. Coincidence?
Quote: sabreThat's about as relevant as saying you ate a cheese sandwich while playing. It's a fun trip report, but has zero bearing on the quality of your "system".
Again, program and simulate a billion hands and get back to us with the results.
I don't think any one person has played enough baccarat to know every single variable/situation there is in this game. You would need to know every variable in order to have someone program those variables. Right?
Quote: DragonSniperI don't think any one person has played enough baccarat to know every single variable/situation there is in this game. You would need to know every variable in order to have someone program those variables. Right?
Most variables are irrelevant. Barometric pressure, number of alcoholic beverages drunk, dealer bra size have nothing to do with your "system". The relevant variables are the number of decks and the cut card placement. Those 2 variables are easily programmable.
Quote: DragonSniperI don't think any one person has played enough baccarat to know every single variable/situation there is in this game. You would need to know every variable in order to have someone program those variables. Right?
No. You program a sim to count the cards and bet the dragon when the count is +6. Let it run a billion srandom shoes and see if its positive.
Quote: unJonNo. You program a sim to count the cards and bet the dragon when the count is +6. Let it run a billion srandom shoes and see if its positive.
Challenge accepted!
Okay, it wasn't quite a billion shoes, but I did get through six billion hands (eight deck shoes, no burned cards, full penetration).
The Dragon bet is very close to zero edge with a +9 count, and goes positive at +10 or higher (it goes up about 0.4% for each point in the count).
Don't bother with Panda; you need something like +40, and even then, I don't think there are enough hands at that level to make the simulation particularly accurate.
Quote: ThatDonGuyChallenge accepted!
Okay, it wasn't quite a billion shoes, but I did get through six billion hands (eight deck shoes, no burned cards, full penetration).
The Dragon bet is very close to zero edge with a +9 count, and goes positive at +10 or higher (it goes up about 0.4% for each point in the count).
Don't bother with Panda; you need something like +40, and even then, I don't think there are enough hands at that level to make the simulation particularly accurate.
Are you able to see how many of the billion hands were dealt at a count of +10 or higher ?
Quote: michael99000Are you able to see how many of the billion hands were dealt at a count of +10 or higher ?
If I am reading this right, about 1 out of every 8 hands are +10 or higher, and 1 out of every 10 are +11 or higher.
Keep in mind that this doesn't mean they appear 1 hand out of 8 on a regular basis; expect them to run in streaks of consecutive hands.
Also note that this assumes eight decks and full penetration. For 75%, the count has to be +14 to break even, and about 1 out of every 17 hands is +14 or higher.
Quote: ThatDonGuyIf I am reading this right, about 1 out of every 8 hands are +10 or higher, and 1 out of every 10 are +11 or higher.
Keep in mind that this doesn't mean they appear 1 hand out of 8 on a regular basis; expect them to run in streaks of consecutive hands.
Also note that this assumes eight decks and full penetration. For 75%, the count has to be +14 to break even, and about 1 out of every 17 hands is +14 or higher.
May i ask what coding you used for your simulator?.
Did you work anything out of the simulation with any positive or close to positive results?.
Quote: ThatDonGuyIf I am reading this right, about 1 out of every 8 hands are +10 or higher, and 1 out of every 10 are +11 or higher.
Keep in mind that this doesn't mean they appear 1 hand out of 8 on a regular basis; expect them to run in streaks of consecutive hands.
Also note that this assumes eight decks and full penetration. For 75%, the count has to be +14 to break even, and about 1 out of every 17 hands is +14 or higher.
Thanks. I would take this to mean that it is not practical to use this as a stand alone +EV opportunity. However, if one is playing baccarat ALREADY then counting and betting 1/17 of the time when you do have a +EV on this side bet makes sense.
I am not a baccarat player. Can I assume you would NOT be allowed to hold a spot while only betting a side bet 1/17 of the time?
Quote: HunterBBQMay i ask what coding you used for your simulator?.
Did you work anything out of the simulation with any positive or close to positive results?.
Visual C#, and I don't know what you mean by your second question.
Also remember that, at least in Nevada, counting cards in baccarat is just as illegal as counting cards in blackjack - you can count wins and losses (and ties) in baccarat, but not individual cards.
I stand corrected - see below
Quote: ThatDonGuyVisual C#, and I don't know what you mean by your second question.
Also remember that, at least in Nevada, counting cards in baccarat is just as illegal as counting cards in blackjack - you can count wins and losses (and ties) in baccarat, but not individual cards.
Say What?
Quote: billryanSay What?
I thought the Nevada Gaming Regulations didn't allow you to keep track of things like cards dealt, with the two exceptions of numbers in roulette and wins/losses/ties in baccarat. However, Nevada Gaming Regulation 5.150 specifically allows anyone to "Make and refer to handwritten records of the cards played at baccarat".
Ah, yes, I've looked in to that so I can save you the trouble. Unless you employ a team to count 10 tables at once, you can create EV, however, given these games are generally horrendously slow you'll make next to nothing hourly.Quote: unJonHes counting the dragon bet. Which is countable.
I used a specialized count for the dragon bet, and given the rounds per hour when I attempted it in the field multiple times at multiple locations, I'd say you can make about $2/hour sitting around asians that all don't like you. Looks like my $1/hour estimate was wayyyyyyy off =D. Don't forget to take in to account the -EV from the main game, unless you plan on back counting and standing around for 10 hours per day.
Quote: DragonSniperIn 1.5 hrs....I made $1100+...
I'm not following.... What am I missing?
What's missing is all the other shoes you waded through before the one that paid. The 1.5 hrs. should not include just one winning session, but your total time in, including all the prior winning/losing shoes.
The Dragon can be counted. The question is whether anyone is willing to invest the time and effort required between favorable situations.
Eliot Jacobson's article is here
Quote: ThatDonGuyVisual C#, and I don't know what you mean by your second question.
Also remember that, at least in Nevada, counting cards in baccarat is just as illegal as counting cards in blackjack - you can count wins and losses (and ties) in baccarat, but not individual cards.
I stand corrected - see below
I think you mean counting cards at blackjack with a device is illegal in Nevada?
Certainly counting cards on its own within your head is not illegal
Quote: AyecarumbaWhat's missing is all the other shoes you waded through before the one that paid. The 1.5 hrs. should not include just one winning session, but your total time in, including all the prior winning/losing shoes.
The Dragon can be counted. The question is whether anyone is willing to invest the time and effort required between favorable situations.
Eliot Jacobson's article is here
Yes that is true. I waded through using a 4+ count. I read my scorecards and noticed my wins came on 6+ or higher counts. We ate some lunch and went back for a final run and made $1100+ in 1.5 hrs with a 6+ count.
I am that guy investing time and effort. I have even started counting mid deck (30 hands or so) and came out with bonuses.
I will make another run this weekend and report. I am more interested in my per HR winnings on 2 or 3 shoes. I'll keep track of time and counts.
What I'm most interested is in not only the profit but the losses I would of taken if I would of randomly bet on 5 or less counts. I saved myself a total of 17 bonus bets on my last 2 shoes. To me that's more important than actually winning.
Quote: DragonSniper
Yes that is true. I waded through using a 4+ count. I read my scorecards and noticed my wins came on 6+ or higher counts. We ate some lunch and went back for a final run and made $1100+ in 1.5 hrs with a 6+ count.
What is/was your unit bet size on the Dragon?
Quote: gordonm888What is/was your unit bet size on the Dragon?
I think what he did is correct, based on 50 million shoes simulation, 8 deck, cut card place at 14 cards from bottom, bet when TC >=4. See image below( Dragon 7, Banker winning 3 card total 7 points, 1 pay 40)
DRAGON 7.JPG
OR
https://imgur.com/ScHXfTa
Quote: gordonm888What is/was your unit bet size on the Dragon?
On my last run it varied... $10-50 increasing as the count got higher...$10 on dragon and $5 on panda on 6-8 count. All the way up to $50 on dragon to $15 on panda on as high as 15+ count. I'm betting on panda just to recover some of my previous loses in case the dragon missed and I hit a few.
Quote: ssho88I think what he did is correct, based on 50 million shoes simulation, 8 deck, cut card place at 14 cards from bottom, bet when TC >=4. See image below( Dragon 7, Banker winning 3 card total 7 points, 1 pay 40)
DRAGON 7.JPG
OR
/ScHXfTa
Can you explain what EV%, VARIANCE, ROUNDS/SHOE mean at a total count of 6?
I think I have the table IQ/intuition down to a T....i believe I just need to study the numbers/EV%/Variance/Rounds etc in order to pinpoint (sniper..ha) when to start betting and especially when to hold...
FYI - I'm not a math whiz. I did graduate high school and went to community college. I need someone to explain certain statistics just once. I will study and learn these statistics after that.
I didn't think I could of counted cards a few months ago and here I am on this website...lol
Quote: DragonSniperQuote: ssho88I think what he did is correct, based on 50 million shoes simulation, 8 deck, cut card place at 14 cards from bottom, bet when TC >=4. See image below( Dragon 7, Banker winning 3 card total 7 points, 1 pay 40)
DRAGON 7.JPG
OR
/ScHXfTa
Can you explain what EV%, VARIANCE, ROUNDS/SHOE mean at a total count of 6?
I think I have the table IQ/intuition down to a T....i believe I just need to study the numbers/EV%/Variance/Rounds etc in order to pinpoint (sniper..ha) when to start betting and especially when to hold...
FYI - I'm not a math whiz. I did graduate high school and went to community college. I need someone to explain certain statistics just once. I will study and learn these statistics after that.
I didn't think I could of counted cards a few months ago and here I am on this website...lol
For example, when you play through a 8 deck shoe, there are 2.216 rounds with TC = 4, the corresponding expectation value and variance is ev = 2.03% and Var = 40.791
So the trigger point is TC = 4 !
Quote: ssho88Quote: DragonSniperQuote: ssho88I think what he did is correct, based on 50 million shoes simulation, 8 deck, cut card place at 14 cards from bottom, bet when TC >=4. See image below( Dragon 7, Banker winning 3 card total 7 points, 1 pay 40)
DRAGON 7.JPG
OR
/ScHXfTa
Can you explain what EV%, VARIANCE, ROUNDS/SHOE mean at a total count of 6?
I think I have the table IQ/intuition down to a T....i believe I just need to study the numbers/EV%/Variance/Rounds etc in order to pinpoint (sniper..ha) when to start betting and especially when to hold...
FYI - I'm not a math whiz. I did graduate high school and went to community college. I need someone to explain certain statistics just once. I will study and learn these statistics after that.
I didn't think I could of counted cards a few months ago and here I am on this website...lol
For example, when you play through a 8 deck shoe, there are 2.216 rounds with TC = 4, the corresponding expectation value and variance is ev = 2.03% and Var = 40.791
So the trigger point is TC = 4 !
2.216 rounds meaning specific hands of a TC of 4?
2.03% of expected return meaning profit?
Var?
Quote: ssho88Quote: DragonSniperQuote: ssho88I think what he did is correct, based on 50 million shoes simulation, 8 deck, cut card place at 14 cards from bottom, bet when TC >=4. See image below( Dragon 7, Banker winning 3 card total 7 points, 1 pay 40)
DRAGON 7.JPG
OR
/ScHXfTa
Can you explain what EV%, VARIANCE, ROUNDS/SHOE mean at a total count of 6?
I think I have the table IQ/intuition down to a T....i believe I just need to study the numbers/EV%/Variance/Rounds etc in order to pinpoint (sniper..ha) when to start betting and especially when to hold...
FYI - I'm not a math whiz. I did graduate high school and went to community college. I need someone to explain certain statistics just once. I will study and learn these statistics after that.
I didn't think I could of counted cards a few months ago and here I am on this website...lol
For example, when you play through a 8 deck shoe, there are 2.216 rounds with TC = 4, the corresponding expectation value and variance is ev = 2.03% and Var = 40.791
So the trigger point is TC = 4 !
2.216 rounds meaning specific hands of a TC of 4?
2.03% of expected return meaning profit?
Var?
And when you say the trigger point is 4...i lost $500+ my last run using a count of 4. Only when I switched to six did I see the $1100 swing. Counting back my losses before I switched from 4 to six, I could have saved 17 losing bets.
Quote: ThatDonGuyIf we're talking True Count, then, using the posted counting method, my simulations show that the Dragon Bet has EV of zero at about TC +3.5, regardless of penetration.
From the image in my previous post, the exact TC for EV =0 is 0.093/(2.03+0.093) +3 = 3.03.
However, it is a high variance(40.8) bet, therefore I suggest to bet at TC = 4.
Even a count as high as +18 isn't guaranteeing a dragon hit. I just ran through my cash hoping to hit the $50 dragon. 7 pandas hit during that run from +6 to +18. I'd say it was about 25 hands were the count stayed above +6.
I realized when it was too late to even my bets out to $20 and $10 on the bonuses.
You can't always hit a home run but a double will do.
Quote: DragonSniperQuote: ssho88Quote: DragonSniperQuote: ssho88I think what he did is correct, based on 50 million shoes simulation, 8 deck, cut card place at 14 cards from bottom, bet when TC >=4. See image below( Dragon 7, Banker winning 3 card total 7 points, 1 pay 40)
DRAGON 7.JPG
OR
/ScHXfTa
Can you explain what EV%, VARIANCE, ROUNDS/SHOE mean at a total count of 6?
I think I have the table IQ/intuition down to a T....i believe I just need to study the numbers/EV%/Variance/Rounds etc in order to pinpoint (sniper..ha) when to start betting and especially when to hold...
FYI - I'm not a math whiz. I did graduate high school and went to community college. I need someone to explain certain statistics just once. I will study and learn these statistics after that.
I didn't think I could of counted cards a few months ago and here I am on this website...lol
For example, when you play through a 8 deck shoe, there are 2.216 rounds with TC = 4, the corresponding expectation value and variance is ev = 2.03% and Var = 40.791
So the trigger point is TC = 4 !
2.216 rounds meaning specific hands of a TC of 4?
2.03% of expected return meaning profit?
Var?
And when you say the trigger point is 4...i lost $500+ my last run using a count of 4. Only when I switched to six did I see the $1100 swing. Counting back my losses before I switched from 4 to six, I could have saved 17 losing bets.
DragonSniper,
Let me give an example of how to employ ssho88's numbers.
Say for the next 45 baccarat shoes, you bet $10 (one "unit") on the Dragon 7 sidebet each time the TC is exactly +4. How much should you expect to make on these sidebets? What is the likely range of your results?
Ok... the TC is +4 an average of 2.2 times per shoe, so in 45 shoes you'll place 100 bets. Your edge on the sb is 2.03%, so in 100 trials your expected value (EV) is to come out ahead by 0.0203*100 = 2.03 units, or $20.30... let's round this off to EV = $20.
The total variance in your results will be 40.791*100, or 407.91 square units. We can convert that into the total "standard deviation" (SD) by recalling that SD is the square root of Variance: SD = VAR^0.5. Thus, your total SD is 24.97 units, or $249.70... let's round this off to $250.
Now, according to statistics, about 68% of the time (see 689599.7_rule) your actual results will fall within one SD of your EV. So, if you were to repeat this experiment many, many times, 68% of the time you would finish somewhere between ($20-$250) = -$230 and ($20+$250) = +$270. About 95% of the time you would finish within two SD's of EV, so between -$480 and +$520. Finally, about 99.7% of the time you'd finish within 3 SD's of EV, or between -$730 and +$770.
Thus, for 100 trials, you can see that, while you are the "favorite", you don't have a large advantage and so you can easily end up losing money.
What if you extended the experiment to 100,000 trials? Now your EV is 2,030 units, or $20,300, your VAR is 4,079,100, and your SD is 2,019.7... units, or $20,197. With this many trials, you can see that even if you fall 1 SD below EV, you'll still come out ahead... though not by much. However, about one-sixth of the time you'll finish more than one SD below EV.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
in other words, IF 6 million players (OP believers) followed the same exact betting method OP does, we would expect around 1 million of them to show a net loss after 100k wagers. (lots of time)Quote: DogHandWhat if you extended the experiment to 100,000 trials?
However, about one-sixth of the time you'll finish more than one SD below EV.
not really that impressive
Quote: 7crapsin other words, IF 6 million players (OP believers) followed the same exact betting method OP does, we would expect around 1 million of them to show a net loss after 100k wagers. (lots of time)
not really that impressive
7craps,
The 100,000 trial experiment I described is for betting the SB when the TC is +4: no lower, but also no higher. For higher TC's, the number of trials needed to make the EV equal to 1 SD decreases rapidly as the TC increases. The name for this number of rounds is N0 (that's N-zero), and we can calculate it as follows:
N0 = (Variance per round)/((EV per round)^2)
So, using ssho88's numbers, we can calculate the N0 value for wagers made at each TC. For example:
At +4, N0 = 40.791/(0.02030^2) = 98,986
At +6, N0 = 42.483/(0.06377^2) = 10,447
At +8, N0 = 44.266/(0.10971^2) = 3,678
So why is this important? Because DragonSniper is not betting only at one TC: instead, he is betting over a distribution of TC's, most of which have much small N0's than the approximately 100,000 we found for +4. To find the N0 overall, we'd need to know the overall EV and Var for the SB. Perhaps ssho88 can calculate these values from the data he presented.
Just eyeballing his values, I'd guess the overall EV (for betting whenever the TC is +4 or higher) is about 5% and the overall Variance is about 42, so the overall N0 is about 42/(0.05^2) = 16,800 or so.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
1) Average ev = 7.87%
2) Average variance =43.06
3) Rounds Bet/shoe = 7.37
4) EV/shoe(units) =0.58 units
5) N0 = 6952
6) Bankroll = $100,000
7) Kelly ratio = 1.0
8) Proposed unit bet size = $183
