Quote: coachbellyWhy doesn't counting the tie bet apply?
I don't know what the indicators on the scoreboard mean,
or even where to find them on the scoreboard.
But what do the indicators show?
Are you asserting that MDawg is counting the tie bet? On what do you base that? I didn’t see MDawg suggest it.
Quote: Marcusclark66Not worth it to respond to you in detail any longer. Your negative, you want to cause drama, you borderline on trolling and basically my own opinion and only my own opinion, you have nothing much to say. You are very quick downgrade almost anything anyone says so it's in my own opinion it's not worth it to answer you any longer.
Interesting that you still haven't denied my accusation.
From your response it seems I hit a nerve. Uncovered the truth?
Quote: unJonAre you asserting that MDawg is counting the tie bet? On what do you base that? I didn’t see MDawg suggest it.
No, but if someone somewhere could possibly alter the probability of something through any obscure means then it completely invalidates any attempt to quantify the improbability of a claimed event.
At least I'm assuming that's what was going through coachbelly's mind when he brought up that red herring.
You seem to avoid questions and posts you dont like that have some merit, and teeth with all kinds of lame excuses why you won't answer, or you just ignore them hoping they will be forgotten. We see your game... and it's not looking good for you either.Quote: Marcusclark66Not worth it to respond to you in detail any longer. Your negative, you want to cause drama, you borderline on trolling and basically my own opinion and only my own opinion, you have nothing much to say. You are very quick downgrade almost anything anyone says so it's in my own opinion it's not worth it to answer you any longer.
I'm just wondering if guys like you actually think you are fooling everyone/anyone, or you know you are not fooling anyone, but you don't care, because it's just fun trying?
Quote: MDawgTime for gym, eat, sex, play. In that order.
Good luck and as always win money. Sorry about the little hijacking of your thread had some stuff to shut off my chest. I guess some of the other high-profile members don't really like what we know or how we comment on their posts.
Quote: MDawgTime for gym, eat, sex, play. In that order.
Mdawg, did coach belly forward you my pm and my offer of posting money
Quote: sabreI'm assuming that's what was going through coachbelly's mind when he brought up that red herring.
I brought it up after being asked the following...
Quote: sabreWhat is the difference?
I was seeking information relevant to the question you asked,
not to invalidate your attempt to quantify the improbability of a claimed event.
It's unclear to me that you quantified the improbability of any event that MDawg claimed.
Did you?
Quote: coachbellyWhy doesn't counting the tie bet apply?
It doesn't apply because MDawg himself removed that possibility.
When this thread started, I was not an active member here and had no ability to question Mdawg. All I could do was read and shake my head. When things changed and I had the opportunity to engage with Mdawg, the very first question I asked him, was if he was doing something, some sort of counting or other technique to play with an advantage and he said "NO". I have since asks that question several more times, and each time he has replied that he is not.
Quote: kewljIt doesn't apply because MDawg himself removed that possibility.
The original question wasn't specific to MDawg, since it's not a claim that he made.
Quote: coachbellyDoes this refer to the tie occurring 75 times in 300 hands dealt,
or winning the tie bet 75 times out of 300 times betting the tie?
It's not clear to me the answer "counting doesn't apply" is specific to MDawg either.
It is clear that if MDawg bet the tie on every hand for the shoe
pictured at the link below, then he would have won 23% of his tie bets,
which is what he claimed.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/trip-reports/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/346/#post799590
What's the probability of another occurrence like the event pictured above,
where 17 out of 73 hands dealt are ties?
If we are presented with evidence of another occurrence like the event pictured above,
then are we to say that since it was highly improbable, it therefore did not occur?
Quote: coachbelly
What's the probability of another occurrence like the event pictured above,
where 17 out of 73 hands dealt are ties?
I told you exactly how to find this. Why haven't you calculated it and reported it?
Quote: kewljSo let me get this straight coach belly. He took out a marker for 50 grand at one property, lost that, then walked across the street and won exactly 50 grand? And what money did he use at the second property? A second 50k marker? I do NOT believe THAT story, as is my right as per Wizards rules.
While out for a bike ride early this morning I was thinking about this "50 grand story" that coach belly dug up from earlier in the great adventure.
2 points. First, the story was not part of Mdawgs supposed live trip reports and play experience. The mention begins with "I once....".
It is pretty hard to find mention of any losing session in any of the supposed live accounts of his trips and plays....which is exactly the point that so many of us find so impossible or very nearly impossible (for those that like to offer a 1 in a million "possibilites" and declare it possible).
So point #2, in the one instance that we see mention of a loss (although it is mentioned in the past and not part of the live account), but the one mention, he walked across the street and immediately won that same amount ($50k) back.
I would say "you can't make this stuff up", but.... :/
Quote: ChumpChangeMDawg is a problem gambler on a potential permanent winning streak. I want that kind of luck too. Thanx.
I don't know if Mdawg is a problem gambler. If he has the means that he claims, which I have an opinion on, but don't really care, then he shouldn't be a problem gambler, even if he is losing which he is not telling us about.
The problem with these "system players" especially system player playing any kind or progressive wagering or upping wagers depending on if they are winning or losing, is that they tout the frequent winning part, but conveniently leave out the losses, that wipe away all the winning plus some. We see it over and over and over again with these 'types' of individuals. While they are lying to us, the bigger reality may be that they are lying to themselves.
Quote: sabreI told you exactly how to find this. Why haven't you calculated it and reported it?
I don't have excel on my device. I'll get to it later.
How do you know that? Have you ever seen him actually make a bet? Lots of pictures of chips and various other things (none of being paid a winner)... let me know when you see any pics or video of any betting. And the good old... They dont like it when you take pictures or video....ROTFLMAO.Quote: ChumpChangeMDawg is a problem gambler on a potential permanent winning streak. I want that kind of luck too. Thanx.
Are you filling in for Mdawg "and" Markus while "they" are on break?Quote: coachbellyI don't have excel on my device. I'll get to it later.
Quote: kewlj
I don't know if Mdawg is a problem gambler.
reality may be that they are lying to themselves.
Does those two really affect you? Seriously dude why would you care?
Quote: AxelWolfAre you filling in for Mdawg "and" Markus while "they" are on break?
Yes, and they are late clocking back in. Have you seen them around town?
If you do, remind MD that I get double-time for the first 8 hours on Sundays,
and triple-time for anything over 8 hours.
A drop in the bucket for him, I'm sure he has tipped away more than that already,
but it is Sunday, I came in early today, and I need to get to folk mass at 5:00pm.
Good lookin out Wolfie...thanks for asking.
Quote: MDawgStill it somewhat reminds me of when we used to ride around in my parents' Rolls as teenagers and once some guy said "Daddy's Rolls" as we pulled through by a night club. My cousin said to him, "Your Daddy got one too?" That shut him up.
Mdawg how much of your net worth comes from or came from your parents? Did they ever gamble or go to Vegas?
Quote: Marcusclark66Does those two really affect you?
No, not initially. It does when MDawg starts lying about me and my play and results as he now frequently does.
Quote: Marcusclark66Seriously dude why would you care?
I care for 2 reasons. One, as a player, who supports himself by AP means, employing mathematical principals that work, I take offense at someone trolling the community with tales that can't be and defy and contradict the math.
Second, I particularly take offense on THIS forum, started by and now managed and moderated by Michael Shackleford. Wizard has built his reputation as a gambling math guy....THE gambling math guy in my opinion, but that can be debated I guess. And when starting this forum, he posted a mission statement something along the lines of helping players become better players. And I don't think providing a 'platform' for this ongoing nonsense and voodoo concepts jives with that mission statement.
To be clear I don't expect Wizard to call out every claim that is unlikely, or impossible. But there has to be a point, in accordance with his opening mission statement that he does. And that point HAS to be before the thread and claims have reached 300+ pages.
Quote: kewljNo, not initially. It does when MDawg starts lying about me and my play and results as he now frequently does.
I care for 2 reasons. One, as a player, who supports himself by AP means, employing mathematical principals that work, I take offense at someone trolling the community with tales that can't be and defy and contradict the math.
Second, I particularly take offense on THIS forum, started by and now managed and moderated by Michael Shackleford. Wizard has built his reputation as a gambling math guy....THE gambling math guy in my opinion, but that can be debated I guess. And when starting this forum, he posted a mission statement something along the lines of helping players become better players. And I don't think providing a 'platform' for this ongoing nonsense and voodoo concepts jives with that mission statement.
To be clear I don't expect Wizard to call out every claim that is unlikely, or impossible. But there has to be a point, in accordance with his opening mission statement that he does. And that point HAS to be before the thread and claims have reached 300+ pages.
If the mission end point has changed perhaps the solution is for Wizard to change the mission statement
Maybe you should go ahead and confess the jealousy, that way you'll probably feel better?
Again you can just block the thread and block us and then you won't have to deal with the thread or us any longer.
Quote: Marcusclark66Simply i will not hold being jealous against you.
Jealous of his writing? I don't understand what you're talking about.
Quote: Marcusclark66Simply i will not hold being jealous against you.
Maybe you should go ahead and confess the jealousy, that way you'll probably feel better?
Again you can just block the thread and block us and then you won't have to deal with the thread or us any longer.
It's not possible to be jealous over fiction
Opposite
I pity the poorly written fiction
Kind of a weak James Swain tryout
Keep up the good work MDawg win lots of money, keep writing!
And so was Nathans, and B79's and many other wackjobs at one time. I'm not sure that's something to be proud of. I'm fairly certain if we had the most hated despicable person alive with their own thread here it would overwhelmingly crush this one.Quote: Marcusclark66Number one best and most popular thread on the forum.
First shoe, there was an existing player at the table and I probably should have just left but I decided to play on with this player. About the only thing good about this player was that would put down whatever thought was right without considering what I had bet. I respected that - the player lost in the end, and left, but still, at least I eventually grew oblivious and just did my own thing. I ended the first shoe down -2500 though.
Second shoe, I had a couple of great Player runs and recouped. I ended at -700, which seemed familiar to me from yesterday. When I commented on how that shoe was good for me, the other player said, "For you - not for me," and left.
Third shoe, early on, I took some hard spills, and lost a three thousand dollar hand. Ended up losing the entire 8K marker I had pulled. I did some call bets here and there for 500 to 1500 each and won every one, but didn't win the second hand after winning the call bet, until finally I had only a grand in front of me, decided I needed some ammo, and asked for a 20K marker. And then - easy street hit. Three parallel Bank runs of 5 to 7 each, separated by only 1 Player. You'd have to be brain dead to not win on those, and win I did, although on the second run I put 1500 on Bank #2 then fingered 4500 for the third Bank, but chickened out and put only 2000 on it, won with a natural 8. After that I kept referring to "I should have bet 4500 on that hand" and pointed it out to the relief dealer and to anyone else who would listen until the pit boss finally said, good-naturedly, "Are we still on that?" But actually that was the hand that would have taken me way ahead, and I let off on the gas dramatically after I was close to even. If I had kept pressing those 500 chips I would have cleared a good sum. Still, somehow, I ended the third shoe down about a grand but given that I was a solid minus 8K at more than a few points prior, that was a victorious run upwards.
At the beginning of the fourth shoe I bet small, and then as soon as I was up - a mere 100, I quit. Today I tipped out about 300 via dealer side bets so the pit boss and I laughed about how the dealer won more than I did.
"Well anyway this proves that you can't keep a good man down." he said, referring both to how I had tipped more than I had won, and of course, to how I had made a nice comeback.
The main dealer at the table was new to Vegas, rather cute actually, and I spent a while talking to her and regaling her with past tales of MDawg glory in Vegas casinos. I get garrulous when I've won.
Is 100 a win? Of course it is, when it represents a comeback from minus 8K.
Let us not forget the things that make us laugh.Quote: AxelWolfROTFLMAOQuote: sabreSo after skipping the first 15 hands you must have played around 70 hands. 10k winner @ $200/hand means you net 50 wins.
Let's assume you won 60 hands then and lost 10 to accomplish this.
1 - BINOMDIST(60,70,.51,TRUE) = 1.80381E-10
Wow, a 5.5 billion to 1 event. Pretty improbable for mere mortals, but I'm sure to you it's just another Tuesday.
Stay hydrated.
This should help anyone legit who may have still been on the fence. I sure can see why some people are ignoring this.
Let us not forget the things that make us laugh.Quote: AxelWolfROTFLMAOQuote: sabreSo after skipping the first 15 hands you must have played around 70 hands. 10k winner @ $200/hand means you net 50 wins.
Let's assume you won 60 hands then and lost 10 to accomplish this.
1 - BINOMDIST(60,70,.51,TRUE) = 1.80381E-10
Wow, a 5.5 billion to 1 event. Pretty improbable for mere mortals, but I'm sure to you it's just another Tuesday.
Stay hydrated.
This should help anyone legit who may have still been on the fence. I sure can see why some people are ignoring this.
If there is anything to be gained, other than the pleasure of writing about what happened, it's accountability. Now, does accountability to a gaggle of strangers trump accountability to myself or to people who know me? No. But still, knowing that I have to come up here and report what happened is at least tangentially on my mind when it comes to playing seriously and well and doing my best to make sure I win.
One of the reasons I advised the girl I met in Vegas over a year ago to give up gambling was that I sensed that she had compulsions. I told her flat out - you're the type who is sitting up in your room and can't stop thinking about how she should be down at the tables. She also told me about how she had self-banned herself from casinos in her home state because her domestic partner at the time had a gambling problem and she did that as a show of support for him - but - do people who go to AA meetings go to "support someone" or because they are themselves alcoholics? Anyway, I was right about her and she ended up losing completely, and - I hope - quitting gambling.
To a certain extent any gambler must be willing to lay the bets out there, but don't worry about me. I'm not compulsive. I do get animated and I do have a good time at the tables but if anything, I am TOO good at quitting and definitely not the type who can't stop.
I am into the whole panoply of dressing up and the watches and some jewelry and such, but if you're not going to dress up for Vegas, then when are you going to dress up? I just can't relate to the people who show up in dingy old sweats. It just shows how little thought or effort they are putting into the whole thing. Anyway, to each his own. I can't see running on high octane if I'm dressed like a bum and haven't even taken care of myself by exercising, eating right, having sex or whatever it is that makes a person feel like he’s a solid healthy human being. And how about these smokers at the table? Self destructive behavior galore! If you're into killing yourself one drag at a time, then you're probably unwittingly more into the negative reinforcement of the pain of losing than winning.
Does your gambling day officially begin and end at 6am and 5:59 am?
I mean how can you tell it's a new day?
Sunrise?
The casinos remain open 24 hours so technically the day never ends.
You might do better at NYC racinos which close every evening. Then you could definitively determine a new day has arrived for a new session
Think about all the money you leave behind by not just making an hour a new session. I mean, damn, that 24 hours you have to wait is really holding you back. Or do the Baccarat cards have a timer?
Wank, wank, wonk, wonk
I hesitated for a bit, but ended up leaving it up, the whole 3500, and this time drew a natural 8. Bam! Winner.
The thing about that sort of hand is...given that I was catching up at that point, and not yet even (I believe I was something like minus -5500 at that moment, after having come back some and dropped again), if I had simply Free Handed that one and seen the natural eight winner with no bet out that, that definitely would have bothered me (not to mention the bother of losing a potential 35 hundred in chips). Any gambler knows what I am talking about...miss that Clutch hand, or what might have been the Clutch hand, and the rest of the session might just go down the tubes as well. At a minimum, you end up with a h. of a lot of work ahead that could have been solved in an instant.
Looks like the itinerant trailer park thread has siphoned off the naysayers who were previously posting in my thread. But even the "Adventures" title pays homage to MDawg - thank you! I never thought that any of those naysayers stepped foot into casinos anyway, so I'm sure they'll feel more comfortable in that thread that has nothing to do with gaming. Problem solved! eh, MarcusClark?
Obviously the cost of take-out is lower, but on an RFB ride is it worth the trip downstairs? In many cases, yes! because (1) the way I am playing lately I'm not really putting the hours in so I don't always expect everything to be 100% comp'ed. Whatever is left over available against my theoretical that we don't eat will be applied to spa services. (2) the variety of food downstairs is for the most part superior to room service. I recall in the old days it got to where I had eaten everything on the room service menu and settled into either a Japanese breakfast with salmon or fried chicken half the time. With salad. Even variety gets old after a time, if it's the same variety.
Most of the downstairs restaurants allow calling in the take-out order ahead.
Quote: MDawgPeople talking but they just don't know!
Looks like the itinerant trailer park thread has siphoned off the naysayers who were previously posting in my thread.
Why are you insulting me?
Why use itinerant ??????
Whats wrong with you
I stay at high end RV parks surrounded by 6 figure rigs
Why insult me with "trailer park"
Traveling from place to place. In a trailer. And stay in trailer parks.
Quote: terapined
Everybody in the RV parks tell me
Is this the beginning of a Newell-like claim?
Quote: terapined
I stay at high end RV parks surrounded by 6 figure rigs
Quote: MDawgUhh...isn't that what you do? Itinerant.
Traveling from place to place. In a trailer. And stay in trailer parks.
Now you are trolling me
why?
Enjoy! and be happy.
I like The Dead too by the way.
Quote: terapinedWhy are you insulting me?
Why use itinerant ??????
Whats wrong with you
I stay at high end RV parks surrounded by 6 figure rigs
Why insult me with "trailer park"
Because the real intent of this entire thread is to put people down period.
Tired of constantly being banned, MDawg now mostly remains quiet with insults while he employs (not monetarily I doubt but who knows) Coach and Marcus to do it for him.
Haven't you noticed the pattern?
We must be cautious.
There are some really great threads detailing the experiences of high rollers at -EV games. Natedog at VMB, leon at 2+2. Entertaining, informative, and completely believable.
This thread is nothing like those.
Quote: darkozBecause the real intent of this entire thread is to put people down period.
Tired of constantly being banned, MDawg now mostly remains quiet with insults while he employs (not monetarily I doubt but who knows) Coach and Marcus to do it for him.
Haven't you noticed the pattern?
Yes, the pattern has been noticed. :(
As others have suggested, I have come to believe the REAL intent of this thread is to make a mockery of this forum. Each day that it is allowed to go on, this forum moves further and further away from what Mike said it was about when he started the forum. I guess that is in the name of forum traffic. Not sure if it is fair to be critical of Mike for this as I guess maybe that isn't even his call anymore.
ENJOY! and be happy. A MALCONTENT SAD DOG DOESN'T LIVE AS LONG AS A HAPPY DAWG!
Quote: darkozMDawg now mostly remains quiet with insults while he employs (not monetarily I doubt but who knows) Coach and Marcus to do it for him.
Who have I insulted ?
Quote: sabreThis thread is nothing like those.
Do they allow posts like this on those other forums?
Quote: sabreHahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Quote: coachbellyWho have I insulted ?
You insult us ALL with the games you play, your agenda and the "gottch ya" moments you are always trying to create.
Bottom line: when coach belly shows up in a thread, the thread is "lost" of any value. He is there to fan the flames and that is all.