Both the Wizard has stated, and I would ask that you keep your digression to yourself until after this Challenge is set.
Quote: MDawgAgain, I know you have a really hard time not saying something - but this has nothing to do with the Challenge at hand. You love to speak for others, and now you're speaking for the Wizard??
Both the Wizard has stated, and I would ask that you keep your digression to yourself until after this Challenge is set.
I am speaking directly to this challenge.
It's a farce.
Whether you win or lose, you will claim that regardless of Axel posting a fake thread you continue to beat Baccarat using money management only.
That is the real and only thing to challenge here.
Everything else is a distraction and I am speaking directly to the current challenge that it is a convenient distraction that you managed to engineer.
That's precisely why you keep Insisting we stay focused on the fake thread challenge.
This is between AxelWolf and me.
Quote: MDawgI guess something that has nothing to do with you and where you have no stake in the outcome whatsoever, requires you to devote a lot of your time to discussing it, all the while bringing in unrelated topics, notwithstanding that the Wizard has asked you not to do that.
This is between AxelWolf and me.
That's not how it works. If you post something on an open thread on a forum I think you should expect forum members to comment. There is a PM feature, and if you don't want the forum involved in commenting then cease posting here and use the PM feature.
Quote: SOOPOOThat's not how it works. If you post something on an open thread on a forum I think you should expect forum members to comment. There is a PM feature, and if you don't want the forum involved in commenting then cease posting here and use the PM feature.
MDawg is upset because I am calling out his diversion tactics.
Imagine this scenario:
I claim I can fly through the air by just flapping my arms. I post pics of me flying through the air.
Experts ask to witness this feat in person but I claim I need my anonymity.
I then challenge the experts to post fake photos of them flying through the air by only flapping their arms as proof that my pics must be real.
That is basically where we are at right now
But someone has asked why I care enough about all this to carry on. That goes triple for DarkOz, who has no stake in any of this. lol But, anyway, he may keep posting since that is what he likes to do. I don't really pay much attention to anything he has to say, certainly it doesn't bother me, although he obviously hangs on every word of mine.
Quote: MDawgI am not upset in the slightest. I am making a post here and there while watching my stock tickers for a trade.
But someone has asked why I care enough about all this to carry on. That goes triple for DarkOz, who has no stake in any of this. lol But, anyway, he may keep posting since that is what he likes to do. I don't really pay much attention to anything he has to say, certainly it doesn't bother me, although he obviously hangs on every word of mine.
Says the guy who keeps checking up on Cytodyn's current stock price, lol
Quote: MDawgI made the Challenge and the only money at risk is mine. Does the Wizard know what's going on here, which Challenge we are discussing, and if so, why does AxelWolf need to deposit 5000 also?
I assume you're referring to the challenge that Axel can fake pictures of documents to match those you have posted. However, my understanding of the rules is not essential. I assume that once you two have agreed on the terms, that they cannot be changed.
I don't want to speak for Axel, but I think he would say that it would be only fair that both sides deposit the same amount.
So, there are at least three things you two should be discussing:
1. Who is the bag man (I assume myself* or SooPoo)?
2. What are the rules of the challenge?
3. Who will judge the winner of the challenge?
* Or is it "me"?
Quote: darkozMDawg is upset because I am calling out his diversion tactics.
Imagine this scenario:
I claim I can fly through the air by just flapping my arms. I post pics of me flying through the air.
Experts ask to witness this feat in person but I claim I need my anonymity.
I then challenge the experts to post fake photos of them flying through the air by only flapping their arms as proof that my pics must be real.
That is basically where we are at right now
Well, someone will then come along to say that the experts witnessing the feat (flying through the air by just flapping their arms) in person now would not and/or does not prove the feat in question did or did not happen before.
Quote: FTBWell, someone will then come along to say that the experts witnessing the feat (flying through the air by just flapping their arms) in person now would not and/or does not prove the feat in question did or did not happen before.
That's what happens generally when you make impossible claims.
However more likely the US secret science force would kidnap the flyer and run tests in their area 57 bunker to determine how he is defying gravity with his arms
This entire thing is about how I thought/think you're adventures are faked. Since I believe that to be the case, I have no reason to believe you even have an extra 5k to pay if I succeed. Other than a bunch of written words you haven't taken one legitimate step in moving this forward. When I say faked I don't mean photo shopped. I believe the chips, rooms etc. are real, I just think there's another explanation to what's really going on. For example: You're an assistant to a wealthy person. You work for a Rolex dealer who sends you to vegas. You have a family member who works as a host.
Quote: AxelWolfIll do my best to address one of your question at a time. I put up money (and I'm willing to put up more) to show I was serious about making a legitimate attempt to win the challenge.
This entire thing is about how I thought/think you're adventures are faked. Since I believe that to be the case, I have no reason to believe you even have an extra 5k to pay if I succeed. Other than a bunch of written words you haven't taken one legitimate step in moving this forward. When I say faked I don't mean photo shopped. I believe the chips, rooms etc. are real, I just think there's another explanation to what's really going on. For example: You're an assistant to a wealthy person. You work for a Rolex dealer who sends you to vegas. You have a family member who works as a host.
The challenge is clear, MDawg offered to pay Axel $5K if he could complete the challenge.
If Axel doesn't complete or even undertake the challenge, then Axel doesn't get paid.
If Axel doesn't MDawg trust to pay him, then Axel doesn't have to participate.
And if Axel doesn't participate, that means that Axel's refusing to do what he said he could do.
It's is as simple as that.
Front-money is Axel's attempt to complicate things, and not part of MDawg's terms...don't take Axel's bait, there is no positive outcome if you do.
Quote: coachbellyThe challenge is clear, MDawg offered to pay Axel $5K if he could complete the challenge.
If Axel doesn't complete or even undertake the challenge, then Axel doesn't get paid.
If Axel doesn't MDawg trust to pay him, then Axel doesn't have to participate.
And if Axel doesn't participate, that means that Axel's refusing to do what he said he could do.
It's is as simple as that.
Front-money is Axel's attempt to complicate things, and not part of MDawg's terms...don't take Axel's bait, there is no positive outcome if you do.
Posting for two reasons. Bolded is not a conclusion that flows from the premises of the argument put forth by Coachbelly.
Also just curious if I am one of the people that MDawg put on ignore or not. MDawg if you see this give a shout.
Part of the discussion was the nature of the challenge and part of it was the entirety of what he is saying about his baccarat play. There seems to be some misunderstanding or lack of information about what MDawg is claiming. Some put the odds of his claims beyond Alan's 18 yo's in a row (which are 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000). To clear up the big picture, I asked MDawg questions about his overall play and results. The following is my executive summary.
Before the early 2000's, MDawg used to play blackjack and baccarat with roughly average results. Then, in the early 2000's, he quit playing, partially over some losing trips and partially to focus on law school and real life matters.
In 2018 he resumed playing and exclusively played baccarat.
Since resuming play in 2018, he has made 9 or 10 Vegas trips. Each trip he played at approximately three casinos.
He claims a net win not just every trip, but every casino at every trip.
His total credit line between casinos he plays is about $250,000.
His strategy on a daily basis is a net win for that day. To achieve this, he might play one shoe only or for 12 hours. Some days he might win as little as $100.
Since 2018, he is up about $200,000 overall. This is an average win of about $20,000 per trip.
Again, this is my takeaway and I welcome MDawg to correct me if anything is inaccurate.
That said, with ammunition of a quarter million dollars, it is not incredibly unlikely to do what he has done.
For one thing, his net win is only 80% of his bankroll. To look at it another way, if his overall trip goal was to win $20,000 and he had $250,000 to achieve that, if we tease the house edge out of it, his probability of success is 92.59%. To do that 10 out of 10 times has a probability of 46.32%. No big deal.
Yes, putting in the house edge and tipping, it is much more unlikely, but nothing that should raise any eyebrows. The way he told it to me, it seems to me that he has just been lucky, using the word "luck" in the mathematical sense. Nothing that should raise any eyebrows.
He did tell one story that he played at the Bellagio once before he stopped playing in the early 2000's and saw a 48 Player wins out of 49 consecutive hands, not counting ties. This did raise my eyebrows. To do some math:
The probability of a Player win, not counting ties is 49.32%.
The probability of 48 out of 49 Player wins, not counting ties, is about 1 in 21,922,409,835,345.
Given an average of 80.884 hands per shoe, the probability this event per shoe is about 1 in 870,371,922,467.
Let's roughly estimate MDawg has played 5,000 shoes in his life. The probability of seeing that is about 1 in 174 million.
That does raise my eyebrows a bit. However, over many years of heavy casino play, it's not hard to look back and find coincidences. For example, when I taught my brother in law to play Texas Hold 'Em, the very first hand we played he got a royal flush (probability of 1 in 30,940).
To conclude, not counting that baccarat shoe, nothing MDawg claimed to me over the phone makes him look like anything other than just a moderately lucky player.
I submit for the consideration of the forum that this whole thread is replete with misunderstandings about what MDawg is claiming and has entirely more drama than it needs to have. In fact, I retract my previous claim of "I don't believe MDawg's claims." That was based on my own misunderstanding of what he was claiming. I think all the drama is much ado about nothing.
Again, I welcome MDawg to make any corrections to my report above.
Quote: coachbellyAnd if Axel doesn't participate, that means that Axel's refusing to do what he said he could do.
Quote: unJonPosting for two reasons. Bolded is not a conclusion that flows from the premises of the argument put forth by Coachbelly.
It's not a conclusion.
MDawg's front-money deposit has no bearing on whether or not Axel can do what he said he could do, he's just refusing to participate....he's refusing to do what he said he could do.
Yes that about summarizes it. In case it wasn't clear from the Wizard's post, as I explained to him I did win each trip since 2018, but I did not win every session of each trip since 2018. And to this day I have not seen (or heard of) a Baccarat shoe again such as I was fortunate enough to play that day. Just one correction - although in more recent (2020) trips I have played exclusively Baccarat, in 2018, and 2019, I have played some blackjack but mostly Baccarat.
As an aside, I actually haven't played at that fabulous shoe casino at all since the early 2000s. Maybe I should?
Thank you Wizard for taking the time to talk to me at length today.
Quote: Wizardwith ammunition of a quarter million dollars, it is not incredibly unlikely to do what he has done.
And that is an executive summary of my entire argument regarding the MDawg controversy...his reported winnings are certainly not mathematically impossible...not even incredibly unlikely.
I suspect the doubter's response will be "he doesn't have ammunition of a quarter million dollars".
But that can be proven, by whatever method UnJon was prepared to use to prove his $50K credit line.
Mdawg himself said he would come up with some suggestions of how to guarantee payment. He wanted to see what I suggested first. I came up with a more than reasonable suggestion.Quote: coachbelly
If Axel doesn't MDawg trust to pay him, then Axel doesn't have to participate.
Quote: AxelWolfMdawg himself said he would come up with some suggestions of how to guarantee payment. He wanted to see what I suggested first. I came up with a more than reasonable suggestion.
And I'm suggesting that his word should be sufficient guarantee.
It's that simple, but you're trying to complicate it.
If his word is not sufficient, then don't participate. Why is that a problem?
2 respected math experts have already weighed in on the likelihood of MDawg's claims.
Your horse has been pronounced dead.
FYI I care nothing about his winning claims. I personally don't think he's even playing at the levels he would have us believe.Quote: WizardI had a conversation with MDawg over the phone this afternoon. It was a pleasant call. MDawg listened to my concerns, answered all my questions, and was well spoken. He gave me permission to paraphrase what he said and I give him permission to do the same.
Part of the discussion was the nature of the challenge and part of it was the entirety of what he is saying about his baccarat play. There seems to be some misunderstanding or lack of information about what MDawg is claiming. Some put the odds of his claims beyond Alan's 18 yo's in a row (which are 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000). To clear up the big picture, I asked MDawg questions about his overall play and results. The following is my executive summary.
Before the early 2000's, MDawg used to play blackjack and baccarat with roughly average results. Then, in the early 2000's, he quit playing, partially over some losing trips and partially to focus on law school and real life matters.
In 2018 he resumed playing and exclusively played baccarat.
Since resuming play in 2018, he has made 9 or 10 Vegas trips. Each trip he played at approximately three casinos.
He claims a net win not just every trip, but every casino at every trip.
His total credit line between casinos he plays is about $250,000.
His strategy on a daily basis is a net win for that day. To achieve this, he might play one shoe only or for 12 hours. Some days he might win as little as $1,000.
Since 2018, he is up about $200,000 overall. This is an average win of about $20,000 per trip.
Again, this is my takeaway and I welcome MDawg to correct me if anything is inaccurate.
That said, with ammunition of a quarter million dollars, it is not incredibly unlikely to do what he has done.
For one thing, his net win is only 80% of his bankroll. To look at it another way, if his overall trip goal was to win $20,000 and he had $250,000 to achieve that, if we tease the house edge out of it, his probability of success is 92.59%. To do that 10 out of 10 times has a probability of 46.32%. No big deal.
Yes, putting in the house edge and tipping, it is much more unlikely, but nothing that should raise any eyebrows. The way he told it to me, it seems to me that he has just been lucky, using the word "luck" in the mathematical sense. Nothing that should raise any eyebrows.
He did tell one story that he played at the Bellagio once before he stopped playing in the early 2000's and saw a 48 Player wins out of 49 consecutive hands, not counting ties. This did raise my eyebrows. To do some math:
The probability of a Player win, not counting ties is 49.32%.
The probability of 48 out of 49 Player wins, not counting ties, is about 1 in 21,922,409,835,345.
Given an average of 80.884 hands per shoe, the probability this event per shoe is about 1 in 870,371,922,467.
Let's roughly estimate MDawg has played 5,000 shoes in his life. The probability of seeing that is about 1 in 174 million.
That does raise my eyebrows a bit. However, over many years of heavy casino play, it's not hard to look back and find coincidences. For example, when I taught my brother in law to play Texas Hold 'Em, the very first hand we played he got a royal flush (probability of 1 in 30,940).
To conclude, not counting that baccarat shoe, nothing MDawg claimed to me over the phone makes him look like anything other than just a moderately lucky player.
I submit for the consideration of the forum that this whole thread is replete with misunderstandings about what MDawg is claiming and has entirely more drama than it needs to have. In fact, I retract my previous claim of "I don't believe MDawg's claims." That was based on my own misunderstanding of what he was claiming. I think all the drama is much ado about nothing.
Again, I welcome MDawg to make any corrections to my report above.
Quote: AxelWolfFYI I care nothing about his winning claims.
Think of all the time you wasted disputing his claims that you care nothing about.
You could have devoted all that time preparing your fake Adventures evidence.
MDawg would have already paid you the $5K he promised.
WTF are you talking about? Where is it I have really been involved with his math claims? I don't dispute the possibility of someone winning for a very long time over multiple sessions. I dispute that it's actually happening TO HIM, but I don't care about that either way. I don't think he's playing as much or at the levels he claims, therefore, the math is a moot point as far as I'm concerned.Quote: coachbellyAnd I'm suggesting that his word should be sufficient guarantee.
It's that simple, but you're trying to complicate it.
If his word is not sufficient, then don't participate. Why is that a problem?
2 respected math experts have already weighed in on the likelihood of MDawg's claims.
Your horse has been pronounced dead.
When I'm confident Ill get paid if I'm successful and we have one or more people who can judge the outcome... Ill get started.Quote: coachbellyThink of all the time you wasted disputing his claims that you care nothing about.
You could have devoted all that time preparing your fake Adventures evidence.
MDawg would have already paid you the $5K he promised.
And that's absolutely ridiculous and even you know it. I suggest a vast majority of people wouldn't find his word a sufficient guarantee.Quote: coachbellyAnd I'm suggesting that his word should be sufficient guarantee.
Quote: AxelWolfI suggest a vast majority of people wouldn't find his word a sufficient guarantee.
What you think that the vast majority thinks doesn't matter...and even you know it....it's just like the silly polls.
I suggest that you stop wasting time trying to complicate things, accept his guarantee as a matter of honor and demonstration of your own regard for honor, and get busy faking those adventures.
C'mon man...Put up or shut up.
Quote: AxelWolfWhen I'm confident Ill get paid if I'm successful and we have one or more people who can judge the outcome... Ill get started.
Yeah well, that's not part of this challenge so I guess you are out.
So if you are out, then just butt out. Is that a problem for you to butt out?
Quote: AxelWolfWhere is it I have really been involved with his math claims?
MDawg never made any math claims.
The doubters' claims are that MDawg's reported winnings are mathematically impossible.
Are you admitting that you have no mathematical basis for disputing his winning claims?
You're disputing his claims based on instinct, or prejudice, or superstition, or something along those lines...correct?
Quote: AxelWolfFYI I care nothing about his winning claims. I personally don't think he's even playing at the levels he would have us believe.
Why not?
I meant to say I'm not disputing if his claims are outrageous based on the math. I'm claiming the totality of all his claims don't add up. I believe he is on par with B79. I would say mostly based on instinct.Quote: coachbellyMDawg never made any math claims.
The doubters' claims are that MDawg's reported winnings are mathematically impossible.
Are you admitting that you have no mathematical basis for disputing his winning claims?
You're disputing his claims based on instinct, or prejudice, or superstition, or something along those lines...correct?
FYI you said you would butt out, but you haven't. If others have butt in take it up with them and Mike. So far I'm the only one that has taken any steps towards moving this forward. So you telling me to butt out is a joke and your trolling for MDawg. HE ALLREADY SAID HE WOULD COME UP WITH SUGGESTIONS HOW TO GUARANTEE PAYMENT so he himself obviously thinks that's something that should be done.
Quote: AxelWolfI personally don't think he's even playing at the levels he would have us believe.
Quote: WizardWhy not?
That's objective, and should be easier to prove than whether or not Axel can do a good job of faking trip reports...which is subjective.
Axel is willing to accept judges' evaluations on what are known to be his faked documents, but won't accept unbiased judgments for MDawg's documents, which are provided by licensed casinos and reasonably assumed to be authentic.
That's the roadblock.
I could go on and on. If you have been reading his posts for the last few years it's a combination and totality of his claims that makes me believe there's more to all of this than meets the eye. I'm not sure how much you remember about the Baccarat79 debacle but this is similar to that. He took the identity of his Boss including pictures of his bosses wife, chips, hotel suits etc and passed them off as his own pretending to be a High Roller. B79 also has well written long winded trip reports. With a new identity He successfully tricked some members here including you that he was a casino host on the strip. I called it out after his first post and got flack over it.Quote: WizardWhy not?
Quote: AxelWolfI could go on and on.
You don't need to go on and on.
You would have more credibility if you provided something other than instinct, prejudice, or superstition.
MDawg doesn't think that someone could fake being a high roller to a level that he claims to be at with the same or better evidence that he has posted. I claim I can do it and I'm willing to attempt it if I know ill get paid if successful.Quote: coachbellyThat's objective, and should be easier to prove than whether or not Axel can do a good job of faking trip reports...which is subjective.
Axel is willing to accept judges' evaluations on what are known to be his faked documents, but won't accept unbiased judgments for MDawg's documents, which are provided by licensed casinos and reasonably assumed to be authentic.
That's the roadblock.
Not when my instincts are usually right. The guy can't even seem to muster up 5K for a few weeks.Quote: coachbellyYou don't need to go on and on.
You would have more credibility if you provided something other than instinct, prejudice, or superstition.
Quote: AxelWolfFYI you said you would butt out, but you haven't.
You missed my post where I declined to butt out if the doubters wouldn't also butt out.
I don't need to take it up with anybody, that's your thing. I can handle the butting in.
You're the one who tried to manipulate the discussion to favor your position...it didn't work.
Your only steps were to complicate things, forward steps would have been to stop wasting time trying to complicate things and get busy with your fakery.
MDawg has guaranteed your payment with his word...that ship has sailed.
There's no positive outcome possible by him depositing the prize money somewhere.
I advise you to accept that reality, otherwise you can't cash in on this challenge.
Quote: AxelWolfI claim I can do it and I'm willing to attempt it if I know ill get paid if successful.
No you can't , and getting paid has no bearing on whether or not you can do it.
If you spent as much effort proving your claims as MDawg did, instead of constantly making excuses why you won't, then you already would have gotten paid.
Put up or shut up.
Quote: coachbellyNo you can't , and getting paid has no bearing on whether or not you can do it.
If you spent as much effort proving your claims as MDawg did, instead of constantly making excuses why you won't, then you already would have gotten paid.
Put up or shut up.
My understanding is that Axelwolf and MDawg are having discussions about guarantee of payment. I suggest you let those discussions happen between the parties to see if they can agree. Do you have a problem with that?
Quote: unJonMy understanding is that Axelwolf and MDawg are having discussions about guarantee of payment. I suggest you let those discussions happen between the parties to see if they can agree. Do you have a problem with that?
I'm advising that there's no positive outcome possible if MDawg deposits the prize money with someone.
MDawg graciously offered to pay Axel a prize to complete a challenge that is without financial risk to AW.
MDawg's word is his guarantee. It should be a take it or leave it proposition.
Thank you for your concern. Is there anything else I can help you with?
Quote: coachbellyI'm advising that there's no positive outcome possible if MDawg deposits the prize money with someone.
MDawg graciously offered to pay Axel a prize to complete a challenge that is without financial risk to AW.
MDawg's word is his guarantee. It should be a take it or leave it proposition.
Thank you for your concern. Is there anything else I can help you with?
:(
Yes. The parties that have a stake in this are discussing it publicly and privately. We should let that continue.Quote: coachbellyI'm advising that there's no positive outcome possible if MDawg deposits the prize money with someone.
MDawg graciously offered to pay Axel a prize to complete a challenge that is without financial risk to AW.
MDawg's word is his guarantee. It should be a take it or leave it proposition.
Thank you for your concern. Is there anything else I can help you with?
Quote: unJonYes. The parties that have a stake in this are discussing it publicly and privately. We should let that continue.
Thank you for your input.
I decline to accept your advice.
Is there anything else I can help you with?
Quote: coachbellyThank you for your input.
I decline to accept your advice.
Is there anything else I can help you with?
Yes. My understanding is that the parties with a stake in the matter are discussing it. We should see if they come to a solution that works for them. Thanks.
Quote: unJonYes. My understanding is that the parties with a stake in the matter are discussing it. We should see if they come to a solution that works for them.
When you say "we should see" do you mean that as a suggestion?
I would phrase it as "we shall see".
In any case, I would suggest that your understanding in this matter is incorrect.
There is no positive outcome possible if MDawg deposits the prize money somewhere,
don't you agree?
Axel will need to act on faith if he intends to participate in this challenge.
The ship has sailed...it's time for Axel to put up or shut up.
Quote: coachbellyWhen you say "we should see" do you mean that as a suggestion?
I would phrase it as "we shall see".
In any case, I would suggest that your understanding in this matter is incorrect.
There is no positive outcome possible if MDawg deposits the prize money somewhere,
don't you agree?
Axel will need to act on faith if he intends to participate in this challenge.
The ship has sailed...it's time for Axel to put up or shut up.
I don’t agree. I could see it going one of two ways if they get past the issue of payment comfort. I’m not sure how it will go. But I know your assumption that they aren’t discussing it is incorrect. And I can based on a plain reading of Axel’s posts, see that taking MDawg’s word as a guarantee won’t work. If that means you want to declare Axel the “loser” then feel free. Once you’ve done so, you can stop. And let the parties with a stake continue to discuss.
Anything else I can help you with?
Quote: unJonIf that means you want to declare Axel the “loser” then feel free.
Payment guarantee has no bearing on whether he can do what he said he could do.
I'm declaring Axel unwilling to do what he said he could do.
Quote: unJonAnything else I can help you with?
Yes there is...when you wrote "we should see" did you mean that as a suggestion?
Disagree. Axel said he would do the challenge if paid. Payment guarantee is a fair open point for parties to negotiate.Quote: coachbellyPayment guarantee has no bearing on whether he can do what he said he could do.
I'm declaring Axel unwilling to do what he said he could do.
Correct.Quote: coachbellyYes there is...when you wrote "we should see" did you mean that as a suggestion?
Quote: coachbellywhen you wrote "we should see" did you mean that as a suggestion?
Quote: unJonCorrect.
Then I'm rejecting your suggestion, we can continue to try to influence the agreement.
I'm advising against MDawg depositing the prize money before the task has been completed.
MDawg's word is guarantee enough, if Axel doesn't accept then he should be disqualified from participating.
Quote: unJonPayment guarantee is a fair open point for parties to negotiate.
Then it's also a fair and open point for readers to discuss.
If you don't want to discuss it, then don't discuss it...butt out.
And little to no downside, Ill make it an upside. Ill pay him $50 extra after 45 days of the money being on deposit.Quote: coachbellyI'm advising that there's no positive outcome possible if MDawg deposits the prize money with someone.