The Adventures of MDawg

I'm game? I have 6 of them and I'm not using all of them yet.

Day 147 play

DD Blackjack. 100 - 4000.

I was down anywhere from -500 to -2500 on and off for a period, but then gradually moved ahead. Then stuck again around +5000 to +6500 until I started winning most of my hands and eased past 10K. One of the dealers commented, "You make it look easy."

+10300

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.



I'm willing to present a side Challenge. If anyone doubts that any one, just any one of the Session reports I present during this trip is not entirely accurate, throw down a red flag! Put up a mere ten grand in cash, let's work out how to verify the Session to your satisfaction using the Wizard as the judge, and winner takes the twenty thousand.

I'll contribute five hundred from my end for the Wizard's time if the Challenger will do the same, so that's $19,000. to the winner of this side Challenge.

This Side Challenge remains good for the duration of this particular Vegas trip.

Quote: MDawg

If you know anything about table game play - you know that sometimes, a high average bet might result in a session where very little is won, and a much lower average bet might result in a relatively high dollar win. Just depends on how the cards were running. Win most all of your bets - you'll end up winning a lot more than a session where you bet heavily but don't even win half of your wagers.

Time also doesn't necessarily have everything to do with it. I've won a lot quickly and then other times played for hours and walked away practically even.
link to original post

The Day 146 and 147 action were representative of this - no bet higher than 5K but won three times as much as the Day 145 session where the high bet was 25000.

Day 148 play

DD Blackjack. 100 - 4000.

I was down for a while, as much as -10000, but pretty quickly got to -3000 and was stuck there on and off for some time.

Up as much as a few thousand at one point.

+1000

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.



I'm willing to present a side Challenge. If anyone doubts that any one, just any one of the Session reports I present during this trip is not entirely accurate, throw down a red flag! Put up a mere ten grand in cash, let's work out how to verify the Session to your satisfaction using the Wizard as the judge, and winner takes the twenty thousand.

I'll contribute five hundred from my end for the Wizard's time if the Challenger will do the same, so that's $19,000. to the winner of this side Challenge.

This Side Challenge remains good for the duration of this particular Vegas trip.

It’s interesting how many poker players play Baccarat - for pretty big money too. I asked one recently why plays Baccarat - said that believes that the same quality that makes able to decide which hands to go in or go big, makes able to decide what to do and when at Baccarat.

Quote: MDawg

It’s interesting how many poker players play Baccarat - for pretty big money too. I asked one recently why plays Baccarat - said that believes that the same quality that makes able to decide which hands to go in or go big, makes able to decide what to do and when at Baccarat.
link to original post

That comparison is ludicrous. Poker is a game of skill, deceit and psychology, while baccarat is like a coin flip (pure luck). There is nothing to “decide” in baccarat

Quote MDawg, “said that believes that the same quality that makes able to decide which hands to go in or go big, makes able to decide what to do and when at Baccarat”.

Seen it last night. Had a single wager of $4,000.00 down on the Banker. Which was going to be my only wager, win or lose for that entire night. Whole table except one person was on banker side.

This Asian female walks up and places a table max $10,000.00 banker wager. There is one guy on player side with a several hundred dollar wager and like I said everyone else is on the banker side. Everyone’s reasoning was there was one or two of each for about the first 20 hands or so and then the player side made four for the first time and there was a back to back tie.

Now keep in mind this is the Midwest and there are very few true whales playing, they are mostly your regular type of small business owner of restaurants and nail shops and small retail stores and even employees playing anywhere from a several hundred dollar to several thousand dollar buy in. There are a few people buying in with between $5,000.00 and $10,000.00 a few times during the night on the busy night. But we very seldom see the larger player buying in or having brought tens of thousands of dollars to play with as a norm.

OK with that said back to the hand. The sole person betting on the players side turns over a natural 8 and slams the cards down on the table and said sorry guys looks like I’m going to win this one.

The female with the $10,000 wager is saying a few select cuss words and everyone is starting to get some long faces. The highest wagering person seated at the table, which is a gentleman with about a $2,000.00 wager gets the cards and is beginning his ritual of slowly looking at them and announces he has 2 four line cards. A four line card can only be a 9 or a 10. So the guy says hey guys it’s either going to be a tie or we’re gonna lose or we’re going to win. And everybody starts laughing. So the guy turns over the first card and it is a 10. So now the guy says with a pretty good chuckle it is going to be either a win or lose forget about the tie.

So the whole room breaks out laughing as the lady with the $10,000.00 wager says in perfect broken English, an exact replica of the classic scene from the movie Full Metal Jacket. She said, “Let me see a 9, come on baby flip that 9, Me Love You Long Time Baby”. And I will tell you he took an extremely long time to peel that card back and kept turning it and turning it and I would say it was every bit of a minute and a half. And finally he flips it over with his hand on top of it and turns his head, looks at the lady with the table max $10k wager and says, “You sure long time?” and then flips over a 9.

For those of you that are not familiar with the movie scene I am referring to, watch this:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=md_WfmSYAuQ&t=15s

The entire table except for the one guy wagering on players side went ecstatic. Perfect call, perfect thought, perfect trigger. Does not matter if it was guessing or not, everyone won that was triggered by that scenario.

I took my one winning wager of a quick $4,000.00 and went and cashed out and the lady did the same thing. There’s plenty to decide on in Baccarat and the decision making process comes just prior to the placement of your wager.

Quote: BoSox

MDawg, if you are reading this post you should consider hiring highly qualified security personnel to keep a watch
on the four watches that you wear "two on each wrist" when you walk the victory stroll up and down the strip.

truly great post from the BoSox man

if he's hiring_________being MDawg's bodyguard sounds like a really great job with plenty of great benefits

I don't know about you guys_________


𝙗𝙪𝙩 𝙄 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙤𝙣𝙚 𝙬𝙤𝙪𝙡𝙙 𝙙𝙚𝙛𝙞𝙣𝙞𝙩𝙚𝙡𝙮 𝙗𝙚 𝙬𝙞𝙡𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙤 𝙜𝙞𝙫𝙚 𝙪𝙥 𝙢𝙮 𝙡𝙞𝙛𝙚 𝙬𝙝𝙞𝙡𝙚 𝙞𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙨𝙚𝙧𝙫𝙞𝙘𝙚 𝙤𝙛 𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙩𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙈𝘿𝙖𝙬𝙜

.





.

Cool stories, bro!

Quote: Marcusclark66

So the guy says hey guys it’s either going to be a tie or we’re gonna lose or we’re going to win.
link to original post

Pretty smart guy!

Quote: mwalz9

Quote: Marcusclark66

So the guy says hey guys it’s either going to be a tie or we’re gonna lose or we’re going to win.
link to original post

Pretty smart guy!
link to original post

All three were a possibility when he seen what the carts could be.

He was trying to lighten the atmosphere because it really had pretty big odds against the banker winning.

For example if you had two face cards and you only seen the thin line on them you would know you didn’t have a chance. Or another example is, if you had two cards that could be an ace or two or three you would never have a chance to tie or win.

There is a lot of talk that comes up occasionally about the benefits of quitting while ahead. There is in fact, no other way to win. Quit while behind every time and you will lose.

A lot of people who don’t even play tables games or gave up on them years ago will comment to death on this sort of thing.

The mattress millionaire in Houston, Texas (as opposed to the now possibly broke, Uber driving former Canadian mattress millionaire), stands to make $39M if the Houston Astros win the World Series.

Houston's 'Mattress Mack' bet big on the Astros and could win almost $39 million if they take World Series

The payout on the portion he booked at Caesar’s alone would be the largest sports bet payout in their history ($22M).

Here’s how and why he does it: he runs a promotion for free mattresses if the local team wins the World Series. Since no insurance company will cover the action, he self hedges by betting the local team. If it wins, he collects the bet and uses the proceeds to cover all the free mattresses he has to give away. In the meantime, he views the cost of the bet as paying for “free” advertising related to all the publicity around the promotion.

He has done it before when the Astros were in the World Series in 2017 and 2019, but this time, the payout would be exponentially more than the cost of any free mattresses he would have to give away. The Astros are currently behind, 2:1, with Game Four scheduled for today.

Quote: Marcusclark66

All three were a possibility when he seen what the carts could be.
link to original post

All 3 are a possibility before any hand of baccarat! LoL

Quote: MDawg

There is a lot of talk that comes up occasionally about the benefits of quitting while ahead. There is in fact, no other way to win. Quit while behind every time and you will lose.

Nonsense!
When and how often you take a break from the table has NO influence on the trajectory of your bankroll. NONE.
The only upside of taking interludes is that you tend to wager less over your lifetime.

Quote:

A lot of people who don’t even play tables games or gave up on them years ago will comment to death on this sort of thing.
link to original post

Hit and run is fun. I still do it... FOR FUN. Preaching that it does anything for a player's bankroll is to deceive the poor soul with an untruth.

If you'll show me how leaving the tables behind every time may add up to a win, I will give you credit for creating some kind of new math.

Until then, I choose to leave the tables ahead.

Quote: mwalz9

Quote: Marcusclark66

All three were a possibility when he seen what the carts could be.
link to original post

All 3 are a possibility before any hand of baccarat! LoL
link to original post

Of course they, but I didn’t say that, you twisted and turned what I did say.

Quote: mwalz9

Quote: Marcusclark66

All three were a possibility when he seen what the carts could be.
link to original post

All 3 are a possibility before any hand of baccarat! LoL
link to original post

That’s the joke and why it relieves tension. Obviously the EV of the hand goes way up when he announces the only possibilities are 9-9, 9-10 and 10-10.

The standing joke is more that whenever, at a public table, someone bets on Bank, and someone else on Player, with someone else or one of those two players on tie, the dealer declares that "Someone is going to win."

Quote: Marcusclark66

Quote: mwalz9

Quote: Marcusclark66

All three were a possibility when he seen what the carts could be.
link to original post

All 3 are a possibility before any hand of baccarat! LoL
link to original post

Of course they, but I didn’t say that, you twisted and turned what I did say.
link to original post

How did I twist or turn anything? My point was he didn't have to see the cards to have said that.

Linking poker play to baccarat play. Why not link it to slots as well? Has just as much credence.

Quote: TDVegas

Linking poker play to baccarat play. Why not link it to slots as well? Has just as much credence.
link to original post

Quote the post you are responding to, unless it’s the on right above, if you want anyone to know what you are talking about.

Once he does, he might understand that the post was a relating of two facts:

(1) A lot of high end poker players play Baccarat. I see them at the high limit Baccarat tables all the time, converting stacks of cash into chips.
I know of at least one special limits Baccarat player with own private reserved Bacc table, Googled the name, found rankings and lifetime tournament winnings at poker so this is a serious poker player who also plays very high end Baccarat.

(2) I asked one why plays Baccarat, and that was that player's explanation.

Beyond that, is just TDVegas being TDVegas with his "I don't do that or can't do that so no one else can or would" type posts, which are completely inapposite in this situation, as I wasn't linking anything rather, was reporting on what is.

Quote: MDawg

It’s interesting how many poker players play Baccarat - for pretty big money too. I asked one recently why plays Baccarat - said that believes that the same quality that makes able to decide which hands to go in or go big, makes able to decide what to do and when at Baccarat.
link to original post

I have also heard, from a different poker player, that poker players supposedly play Baccarat to relax, but the high digit numbers I have seen them playing Baccarat at seem like anything but pure relaxation.

Come to think of it, and I have not researched this but maybe someone else could - did Phil Ivey get into Baccarat only after he learned of the "lock" advertised by Cheung Yin Sun, or was he playing the game prior to that? No assumptions please, available facts only.

We do know that big time poker player Archie Karas played very high stakes Baccarat, at up to $300,000. a hand.

Quote: MDawg

We do know that big time poker player Archie Karas played very high stakes Baccarat, at up to $300,000. a hand.
link to original post

Yes, and he went broke.

Quote: DRich

Quote: MDawg

We do know that big time poker player Archie Karas played very high stakes Baccarat, at up to $300,000. a hand.
link to original post

Yes, and he went broke.
link to original post

That's because he didn't quit when he was ahead. It's a shame he didn't have MDawg and his forum to edgeumicate him. Thank gawd for the internets.

Never blatantly show what you definitely know.

“Sir please don’t touch the cards”.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RW1qHA5Hqwc&t=23s

Quote: MDawg

The mattress millionaire in Houston, Texas (as opposed to the now possibly broke, Uber driving former Canadian mattress millionaire), stands to make $39M if the Houston Astros win the World Series.

Houston's 'Mattress Mack' bet big on the Astros and could win almost $39 million if they take World Series

The payout on the portion he booked at Caesar’s alone would be the largest sports bet payout in their history ($22M).

Here’s how and why he does it: he runs a promotion for free mattresses if the local team wins the World Series. Since no insurance company will cover the action, he self hedges by betting the local team. If it wins, he collects the bet and uses the proceeds to cover all the free mattresses he has to give away. In the meantime, he views the cost of the bet as paying for “free” advertising related to all the publicity around the promotion.

He has done it before when the Astros were in the World Series in 2017 and 2019, but this time, the payout would be exponentially more than the cost of any free mattresses he would have to give away. The Astros are currently behind, 2:1, with Game Four scheduled for today.
link to original post

He’s down 3 games to 1. My thinking is that even though he is making large bets, he has almost zero exposure to lose money. Brilliant marketing. He refunds any purchases over $3,000 if the Astros win. In the meantime, sales increase because of the offer. He has already stated his win on his initial $2 mil bet will return $20 million (+1,000). He estimated his exposure is about $20 million. If they lose, I’m guessing all the increased sales has put more than $2 mil in his pocket.

He basically can’t lose or has small exposure relative to the wagers.

On this particular bet though, if he wins, he'll win a lot more than the mattresses he'll have to refund.

It reminds me of the World Series in 2001. That was a year when I was winning HUGE in Baccarat and around that time the Diamondbacks won the World Series and I recall that the odds were 200:1 for anyone who placed a bet on them to win at the beginning of the season. I wished I had done so because I had more casino winning money than I knew what to do with that year.

Quote: MDawg

Once he does, he might understand that the post was a relating of two facts:

(1) A lot of high end poker players play Baccarat. I see them at the high limit Baccarat tables all the time, converting stacks of cash into chips.
I know of at least one special limits Baccarat player with own private reserved Bacc table, Googled the name, found rankings and lifetime tournament winnings at poker so this is a serious poker player who also plays very high end Baccarat.

(2) I asked one why plays Baccarat, and that was that player's explanation.

Beyond that, is just TDVegas being TDVegas with his "I don't do that or can't do that so no one else can or would" type posts, which are completely inapposite in this situation, as I wasn't linking anything rather, was reporting on what is.

Quote: MDawg

It’s interesting how many poker players play Baccarat - for pretty big money too. I asked one recently why plays Baccarat - said that believes that the same quality that makes able to decide which hands to go in or go big, makes able to decide what to do and when at Baccarat.
link to original post

I have also heard, from a different poker player, that poker players supposedly play Baccarat to relax, but the high digit numbers I have seen them playing Baccarat at seem like anything but pure relaxation.
link to original post

The point is not whether these Baccarat playing poker players win or lose, but simply that the two games seem to go hand in hand for many of these guys. They partake in both.

Day 139 play

DD Blackjack. 100 - 25000.

It was a fairly long session and I was all over the place. Was down a couple thousand, up +6500, then down -23000 then down -1000 then down -43000 finally ended it., still down.

Certain days of the week such as the day this particular session fell upon - I seem to often have trouble. Doesn’t mean I always lose on those days but the action tends to be heavy with a lot of ups and downs.

Wow. Wow. A lot of action. But all that action didn’t end well this time. (Similar to how it ended for Mike and Worm - but I got beat up only figuratively not literally.)

-29000

Day 140 play.

DD Blackjack. 100 - 20000.

Several hours of action with a break to dine. I won all of my larger bets and most of my fairly large bets, but there was some up and down. I got up +10K right away, then stuck for a while between +10K to +15K, but a winning 20K hand took me right over the...top! There was a sequence when I was winning every hand about 11 in a row that didn't look good actually by the count so I wasn't betting that much. Still, a nice win. And as well, my primary motivation was to win more than the -29K I had lost in the Day 139 session.

I took it all in cash as I had to pay off the losing casino from the Day 139 session anyway, so I didn't care.

+35000


Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.



I'm willing to present a side Challenge. If anyone doubts that any one, just any one of the Session reports I present during this trip is not entirely accurate, throw down a red flag! Put up a mere ten grand in cash, let's work out how to verify the Session to your satisfaction using the Wizard as the judge, and winner takes the twenty thousand.

I'll contribute five hundred from my end for the Wizard's time if the Challenger will do the same, so that's $19,000. to the winner of this side Challenge.

This Side Challenge remains good for the duration of this particular Vegas trip.

And NO I'm not getting any heat for my Blackjack play and I haven't won every session either.

I have spread it around to different casinos not even necessarily playing at the casino we are staying at at that moment.

The other day some really high level person at the casino came up while I was playing and shook hands with me saying how much they appreciated my patronage. I wasn't really even sure who was although I did recognize. The pit boss wasn't even sure but the dealer knew and said that this one was very high level management, like in charge of all of the high limit play at that casino.

At another casino there's this other high level exec that seems to come out of the woodwork occasionally when I am playing and always says Hi too.

While I was playing in the high limit room one of the recent sessions, I noticed a few players at a public Baccarat table. One of them was a Martingale double on the Player, system bettor. Crazy, I watched this one play in approximate units of 300 on the Player against a Bank run (wasn't exactly doubling, looked like a bit more than a double on some bets). The Bank ran six times and the player got up to a 10000 bet and lost that. The sum total of what had lost so far was somewhere under but close to 20000. The player whipped out 20000 cash, which they took to the cage to count, gave four 5000 chips at the table, which plunked on the Player. The other players waited for the player to get the chips and, that time, luckily the Player won with a natural 9 as the Bank failed to "cross the river" with a 7th win.

I can't even begin to recall how many runs I've experienced of greater than 6 - each of which would have wiped this player out.

I talked to the player afterwards, who said that doesn't always bet Player, but always bets just "one side." That evening, I think the player made money but only because, as I went back through that area and glanced at the tables, I noticed that most shoes happened to be heavily Player heavy that evening, and Player was the side that chose for that session. This player never even pressed, just reverted to the one unit $300. bet if won, then increased via Martingale if lost.

Risking forty grand to make a very small amount - wow. I had to respect the player at least for sticking to convictions - most would have chickened out before the 20000 bet.

Quote: MDawg

]

$35,000 is enough to buy three pairs of Berluti alligator shoes. I’d buy two blue and one grey. Never wear the same pair of shoes two days in a row…they need a rest (with shoe trees to reform and absorb sweat)

In the old days you could buy a watch with that kind of money. Those days are gone

https://www.berluti.com/en-us/alessandro-demesure-alligator-leather-oxford/S1412-E2.html?dwvar_S1412-E2_color=B01&to=1#srule=price-high-to-low&start=1&viewtype=grid-view-small&sz=7&to=1

Well, yes, but in this case I didn't "win" $35K. I won $35K after a -$29K losing session so between the two I netted only $6K.

$6K isn't even quite enough to buy a 1969 Omega Speedmaster Moonwatch.

Even the $35K I'm not exactly happy about because there was a sequence in the shoe where I was winning many hands in a row but the count was bad so I was betting small. Sometimes that happens - you win the hands you are not expecting to win. Anyway point being that I felt like I could've won more than $35K that session but I was playing like a robot according to the way I was supposed to play.

I won the largest hand of the session the way I expected though with the dealer getting a crapola face up and a million expected tens coming - dealer bust!

Yeah but Berluti could use some more business. They closed their Vegas store (Shops at Crystals next to Cosmopolitan). I hadn’t been there in a year or so the closure might have been covid related

If you can’t afford gators, try their kangaroo loafers…you can get a pair for a yellow chip plus a few blacks. “Like a glove for your feet”

I am really into haberdashery, but not as much into the shoes department.

Of course we know the story of the No Shoes Bandit.

I mentioned the story to one of my blackjack dealers. This dealer said that dealt to a kid who started with $500. and took it to THREE MILLION DOLLARS before dumping a million of it, and walking with a clean two million, saying that would never gamble again. The dealer ran into the kid again and asked if had kept the vow - and the kid said Yes, and had bought two liquor stores in Vegas with the money and was done with gambling. According to the dealer, this kid too, just like Shoeless Joe, would play very badly, standing occasionally on a hard twelve and such, varying whether would hit or stay based on feeling, but just kept winning and winning.

Quote: MDawg

I am really into haberdashery, but not as much into the shoes department.
link to original post

First you select your shoes (preferably gators) 🐊 then you choose your outfit to match them

Yes, I may accept that. That works.

The way I do it, when I'm not wearing a suit, is to start with the shirt, then make sure the pants go with the shirt, then the belt buckle goes with the watch and the belt itself matches the shoes, and then the coat or jacket if I am wearing one goes with everything else in some way.

Quote: MDawg

While I was playing in the high limit room one of the recent sessions, I noticed a few players at a public Baccarat table. One of them was a Martingale double on the Player, system bettor. Crazy, I watched this one play in approximate units of 300 on the Player against a Bank run (wasn't exactly doubling, looked like a bit more than a double on some bets). The Bank ran six times and the player got up to a 10000 bet and lost that. The sum total of what had lost so far was somewhere under but close to 20000. The player whipped out 20000 cash, which they took to the cage to count, gave four 5000 chips at the table, which plunked on the Player. The other players waited for the player to get the chips and, that time, luckily the Player won with a natural 9 as the Bank failed to "cross the river" with a 7th win.

I can't even begin to recall how many runs I've experienced of greater than 6 - each of which would have wiped this player out.

I talked to the player afterwards, who said that doesn't always bet Player, but always bets just "one side." That evening, I think the player made money but only because, as I went back through that area and glanced at the tables, I noticed that most shoes happened to be heavily Player heavy that evening, and Player was the side that chose for that session. This player never even pressed, just reverted to the one unit $300. bet if won, then increased via Martingale if lost.

Risking forty grand to make a very small amount - wow. I had to respect the player at least for sticking to convictions - most would have chickened out before the 20000 bet.
link to original post

I mentioned this to a dealer, the dealer said that these "Martingale" players (dealer didn't use the term Martingale, but rather "System" players), get around the house limit by arriving in gangs and, when necessary, having one or more bet the table limit at the same time. This way, for example, if there are five of them at a table where the limit is 20000, five together are able to bet 100000. Still, assuming you want to make enough money to feed a gang of five, you'd need to Martingale starting with at least 500, and even then it's still just eight bets to 64000 and the ninth bet at 100000 doesn't even recoup everything lost so far.

Nevertheless, you see some of these same Asians regularly at the Baccarat tables with tremendous sums in front of them, and whether it is their money or syndicate money, someone must believe in the game enough to throw a lot of cash into it.

Just a couple hours ago it was a balmy 79 degrees on the Strip.

Have to fly back and forth for work a couple times this week, and I daresay weather at home hasn't been much different from here lately.

I assume you have a private jet like Ace (Rothstein) ?

Cliff notes on why this is no longer a hidden thread?

Family has a private jet, I do not.

Something like Ace, right? He didn't own the jet - the casino did.

Quote: Johnzimbo

Cliff notes on why this is no longer a hidden thread?
link to original post

MDawg won.

It should have been obvious. MDawg is always a winner.

I was surprised and just that malenky bit poogly to sloosh D govoreeting that wise.

Quote: MDawg

Family has a private jet, I do not.

Something like Ace, right? He didn't own the jet - the casino did.


link to original post

Yep, the casino owns it.

Paid for in full by the gamblers.

Quote: Johnzimbo

Cliff notes on why this is no longer a hidden thread?
link to original post

"The temperature of this thread has cooled down".

In other words, most of the anti-Mdawg crew is suspended, banned or no longer cares.