The Adventures of MDawg
You obviously are not averse to spending time thinking up snide things to say, so why not put some of that time into something else if you are that interested in this forum.
Quote: MDawg
Now, I'll agree as far as this homeless guy, who was tellingly no longer on the bridge when I walked back (why leave a spot that gets you five bucks so quickly?), that maybe all he did was run off and buy a five dollar rock of crack cocaine.
My experience in Las Vegas says it is hard to buy anything less than a $10 rock.
Quote: darkozI would give detailed trip reports but then everyone will rag on how I took the bus
If you don't qualify for the private jet we probably don't want to hear about it anyway.
Quote: DRichIf you don't qualify for the private jet we probably don't want to hear about it anyway.
When the casino is willing to send a jet to fly you in, that’s a sure sign youre not the most feared AP on the east coast.
Quote: michael99000I even know some people who do good deeds and don’t immediately tell everyone on the internet about it.
Imagine that. It’s almost like not even doing it
I have an acquaintance on Facebook who does good deeds and then has a need to post all about them on Facebook. It doesn’t completely take away the good of doing the deed but it tarnishes it in my mind. Just my 2 cents or 1.5 cents usd.
Quote: PokerGrinderI have an acquaintance on Facebook who does good deeds and then has a need to post all about them on Facebook. It doesn’t completely take away the good of doing the deed but it tarnishes it in my mind. Just my 2 cents or 1.5 cents usd.
I agree, that is more about the person doing the giving than the actual act. "Look at me and tell everybody that you know that I am a great person".
I suppose if I thought that having sex just before a session would lead to winning, I'd mention it though. Should I mention it?
Why post anything at all. Sheesh.
If you don't care for it, no one's forcing you to read it.
Okay gotta eat, and get ready for a session. Will most likely just be playing the double deck BJ stand 17 here unless they open up more than one Bacc. table. Haven't played any Bacc. this trip yet.
clearly you are living a great life so i would ignore all the naysayers on here.
it is possible and highly likely that you are ahead lifetime as you say. you can attribute this to whatever system you have but it's likely you're just running good. nothing wrong with that.
when you bet big in low house edge games like baccarat you are going to have a decent chance to come out ahead big. that is how math works.
adding to that you seem to have good interpersonal skills and know how the host / comp game is played and it is very possible that taking the value of your comps into account, especially if you are getting more than you've "earned" due to good relationships, then your game is +ev lifestyle.
congratulations and i appreciate the trip reports. i think 99% of people who gamble would love to get to this level whether or not they have a winning system.
Quote: MDawgCome on guys, I am not posting about which direction I wiped my a** this morning, or how many times I am having sex each day, whatever I post here has to do with my trip report i.e. gambling,
Wow, if you are having sex multiple times a day you must be younger than I imagined. At my age multiple times a week is impressive.
Quote: sodawater
it is possible and highly likely that you are ahead lifetime .
Would you say it’s highly likely that everyone who plays baccarat is ahead lifetime? Or just the ones who bet big ?
If I pointed out to you a group of people who all play a negative expectation game, how would you go about pointing out to me the ones that are highly likely to be ahead, as opposed to the ones who are highly like to be down ?
Why is the casino offering games that anyone is “highly likely” to be ahead in ?
Quote: michael99000Would you say it’s highly likely that everyone who plays baccarat is ahead lifetime? Or just the ones who bet big ?
If I pointed out to you a group of people who all play a negative expectation game, how would you go about pointing out to me the ones that are highly likely to be ahead, as opposed to the ones who are highly like to be down ?
Why is the casino offering games that anyone is “highly likely” to be ahead in ?
It's highly likely in this case because it is being claimed with decent evidence and the underlying conditional probability of a single high-roller being ahead lifetime in baccarat is not that low to override those claims and evidence.
Quote: sodawaterIt's highly likely in this case because it is being claimed with decent evidence and the underlying conditional probability of a single high-roller being ahead lifetime in baccarat is not that low to override those claims and evidence.
We have different definitions of decent evidence.
If I post pictures of the suites I stayed in, along with my jewelry , etc , and then I said I’m a consistent lifetime winner at Let It Ride, would you say it’s highly likely it’s true ?
There are tons of wealthy people in the world. Having money or any of the things he posts pics of is not remarkable or impressive at all.
Beating baccarat is.
They are 2 completely different accomplishments, and are worlds apart in terms of their possibility of being true.
Quote: michael99000We have different definitions of decent evidence.
If I post pictures of the suites I stayed in, along with my jewelry , etc , and then I said I’m a consistent lifetime winner at Let It Ride, would you say it’s highly likely it’s true ?
There are tons of wealthy people in the world. Having money or any of the things he posts pics of is not remarkable or impressive at all.
Beating baccarat is.
They are 2 completely different accomplishments, and are worlds apart in terms of their possibility of being true.
This is what gets me about this guy.
Almost all of us understand how and why casinos are built and how they make their money. Every now and then they make a major misstep like Don Johnson on the math end. But they learn from it.
It’s obvious he has money to risk and the casinos are treating him well. I don’t believe anyone here is questioning his assets.
But those of us who believe in math and gambling understand he isn’t winning trip after trip. He has no system that can be proven and it makes zero sense he wins trip after trip and keeps getting invited back.
It’s BS and I’m not sure why he continues to push that end of his story.
But huge congratulations for making good money in whatever business you are in. Hard work pays off again.
Quote: PokerGrinderQuote: jjjooogggQuote: MDawgAnswering the canned food question, yes I like canned fish. As far as the tuna variety for a while we were getting this expensive as hell line caught tuna in the can, but eventually I realized that it was dry and didn't even taste as good as the standard supermarket Albacore in water. The Maine lobster they sell in the cans in supermarkets is costly, but quite good.
Haven't played yet, might not play tonight, will see.
Ate lunch, went to gym, then walked across the street to pick up our New Year's Eve party tickets for that party, which just as I walked into the casino my host texted me that he was at the host station and had my tickets, so that saved a trip to one of the ballrooms where they were being distributed.
The Strip wasn't closed off yet, and wasn't closed off as I walked back either.
Once across the street, checked into the room (the one night stay in the standard 750 S/F Encore Tower Suite that we will not be staying in), picked up the tickets, stopped by VIP to wish Happy New Year to the attendants whom I know pretty well I consider them like buddies, have even bought and delivered food to them whenever we were getting outside food for ourselves, grabbed a couple of mango drinks, and headed into the room.
Actually don't think it matters but I messed up the bed, threw some towels on the bathroom floor and draped a robe over a chair.
The view from this room is nice, but the glass seems spotty probably due to last week's rains here.
Or maybe it was just light reflecting off the glass.
The crowd at Wynn/Encore is definitely far more upscale than across the street where we are staying. Actually we haven't stayed here at Treasure Island in some time, but as I mentioned, this casino is throwing us pretty much their largest suite while across the street they gave us just a standard "suite" during this impacted New Year's week. So, I suppose that over here, we are viewed as a very big fish in that the pond is smaller.
Over there at Wynn/Encore everyone is more dressed up and the girls, if they are hot, try to look not just hot, but rich. 😃 Here at TI, it's like, Hello, how are you, I'm here to have fun in Vegas for New Year's; over there no one wants to look other than as if he or she has already arrived and knows the score. I mean at Wynn/Encore, if you're not Drake, you want to look like you could care less who Drake is, is the impression people seem to want to give.
It's actually going to be a bit of a chore to attend both parties, but I think we will attempt it - have dinner at the party over here first then head over there for a second dinner (I'll eat again, she won't, she's a very light eater), and then maybe return here just before midnight for the fireworks. My host over there went over the timeline with me and said "I'll see you at the party" (ulp, I guess that means we should at least show our faces). Only way to do it, to attend both events, will be by walking and while not far, I won't be the one in heels. We shall see.
I got this new razor
it is rechargeable and actually heats up a strip within the five-blade cartridge. I have used Art of Shaving stuff for years but not this new razor. I was actually going to say that I am almost more looking forward to shaving with this new device than attending the NY's parties when she walked in looking fabulouso, they did her hair and makeup in the salon downstairs. WOW. She blows away any girl I saw walking around anywhere tonight.
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
You have a great life.
Didn’t you see the sign don’t feed the ego/animals?
Very few can do this. He ought to have an ego. LOL.
Quote: Boz
It’s BS and I’m not sure why he continues to push that end of his story.
Some people , who have had success in certain aspects of their life , have trouble admitting that theres anything they try that doesn’t go extremely well.
All the comps and suites and shows don’t seem as awesome if you have to come to grips with the fact that you really did pay for them.
And if anyone believes that the casinos truck this guy in and wine and dine him just so he can clean out the bac table chip rack over and over and over , get a clue.
So what if he believes his success is caused by obviously nonsensical methods? I don't think anyone is actually arguing that you can beat baccarat via money management, streaks, quitting when ahead or whatever.
I view this thread as a series of trip reports by a big-money gambler who is playing a negative game with a low house edge -- and is running good enough to be ahead while getting the high-roller comp experience. That's a great thing.
As TigerWu would say, actually already said,
waah waah waah.
I don't believe Michael99000 understands the comp system; at minimum he seems to have no advanced grasp on how to work it. Another thing that is weak is how he posts, "I believe this, so you should too." If I'm solid in my conviction I just say what I believe, I don't need anyone to believe it too. ("Believe it or don't!" 😎) All this tells me that he posts on theory, theories such as "no one wins at gambling" or "no one gets comp'ed who wins," not empiricism. Then there is this incessant petty "MDawg bashing" that was old months ago, and is long decayed and dead today.
What Michael99000 reminds me of is an INSURANCE COMPANY that LOSES a lawsuit I file. At the end of the day, I have some "before" evidence and the sworn testimony of my client, and all they have is speculation, forensics reports that don't necessarily apply to the situation at hand except in theory (the equivalent of his "it must be this way, because I think it's always this way") and waah waah waah. I'd wipe Michael99000 all over the floor in court the same way I do anyone I sue.
Let him believe what he wants: there is no percentage in saying anything to someone like him who has made up his mind. If he wants to show up in Vegas with fifty grand and play side by side with me for two weeks straight let's see which of us walks ahead and which goes home a loser. Until that day comes, his statistics are noted, but are gainsaid by the positive reality of my situation.
The sex thing: For me, it's gotta be twice a day. For her, she's fine with once. Another thing I like about Vegas trips is that I can say something like, Come on babe, you know I gotta be loose before I go down there, and she'll laugh and there we go. So sometimes I get my twice daily easier on trips than at home. Before someone calls TMI - the relevance to gambling: I'm not saying that you're more likely to win if you've just had sex. What I am saying tho, is that if you're running out the door to gamble passing up food or sex that might mean that you're too anxious to play, in which case your judgment might be off.
I played a fairly long session today, double deck stand 17, won some, not much - the total for the trip is pushing two grand, which was not bad considering I was down some at several points during today's session. I've played only three days so far; did not play at all two days. (I decided I am going to email something to my host about how this fog horn sound is keeping me from getting good sleep and is part of the reason why I haven't played that much. When I was in VIP today the girl there told me that there have been other complaints - "you're not the only one.")
At the end of today's session I was just going to walk with the chips after coloring up and hold them all until tomorrow, but the pit boss asked if I wanted to pay off my marker so I said Yeah, and did, then cashed the winning chips.
When I pulled in a different pit boss came up and asked me if I was trying to look cool, 'cause I was wearing these shaded Chrome Hearts. I had the lenses specially made they start darker at the top almost clear towards the bottom, the pic might not show that so clearly but that's the way the lenses are tinted.
Actually the story on these is, and I relayed it to this pit boss, that there is a certain pit boss at Cosmopolitan that told me, "You know ____, it's OKAY to tint your glasses just a LITTLE darker," after he saw me wearing a pair of Gold n Woods that had a very slight gray tint in them. He himself was wearing some pretty dark shades. So based on his suggestion, I had these Chrome Hearts darkened.
"Well, it's working. You ARE looking cool." this pit boss at TI said after he heard the story.
We shook hands, I gave him the double handed Chauncey Gardiner ("Being There") presidential clasp. "Happy New Year!"
There was a guy who also won at my same BJ table. He won only about a hundred or two hundred and stopped. He said that he was going to take a break to go watch the Baccarat table for a while, which is right next door. It was crowded with a group of Asians who all seemed to know each other, and they were doing pretty well, a lot of shouting and cheering.
"So, you just stand there and put down a bet occasionally?"
"No. I just watch. I just like to watch, especially when there's a group like this shouting and getting lively."
"Well they're doing pretty well, the shoe looks pretty good to me."
"What's the difference between a good shoe and a bad shoe, it's just a fifty fifty game isn't it?"
I could tell I was dealing with a non-believer.
"Well, there are shoes when it runs - in streaks." I made up and down sweeping motions with my hand. "I've won a lot at Baccarat."
He just sort of shrugged and went over to watch.
"I'll be back."
Before he left he did say something about how he was a "hit and run gambler" so he does believe in that, but not in the Baccarat.
I'm probably not going to play Bacc. here until/unless they open more than one table, so that I may switch back and forth if one shoe is bad. Anyway, I'm doing fine with the BJ and it brings back a lot of good memories even though I'm playing relatively small with it at the moment.
Quote: MDawgResponding to Michael99000:
Thanks for the update MDawg. An amusing read, if nothing else.
Just be conscious that your opening paragraphs read like an attack on the person rather than a comment on what he posts.
Maybe goad him into a wager with you, but don't troll him. We've already had some reminders not to stray outside any rules.
No need for you to make personal attacks when your remarkable success speaks for you to those or believe it or not.
Be cool. Be lucky, but please be nice.
If we could ALL be nice though, and that includes eliminate the snarky remarks from some of the others, though...remarks that are as, you just pointed out, more along the lines of ad hominem versus cooly analytical.
That in and of itself is not hard to believe. The fact that we here at Wizard Of Vegas we're lucky enough to have found that one person who acts exactly like all the others who have been proven fake is the key to all of this(I'm not saying MD is fake in this post). However, I implore you please go read baccarat7's posts. Then dig into all the other suspect people we have come across throughout the years. Add in the fact that his posts come off as a desperate yearning for appreciation and acknowledgment seems eerily like b79 and others we have come across.Quote: sodawaterWhy is it so hard to believe that of all the people playing negative games, one given player might be ahead just by rungood? In fact it is a mathematical certainty someone will.
So what if he believes his success is caused by obviously nonsensical methods? I don't think anyone is actually arguing that you can beat baccarat via money management, streaks, quitting when ahead or whatever.
I view this thread as a series of trip reports by a big-money gambler who is playing a negative game with a low house edge -- and is running good enough to be ahead while getting the high-roller comp experience. That's a great thing.
I wonder why b79 so desperately want us to believe he was the big high-rolling player, when in fact it wasn't?
MD has suggested that he could meet up with someone like the Wizard and put an end to all the speculation. he's been to Vegas number of times I wonder why this hasn't happened yet? Yes I get it nobody's obligated to do any of those things however he suggested he was game, so why not? Last time I asked this question, I think I got crickets.
A company man at his finest.Quote: OnceDearThanks for the update MDawg. An amusing read, if nothing else.
Just be conscious that your opening paragraphs read like an attack on the person rather than a comment on what he posts.
Maybe goad him into a wager with you, but don't troll him. We've already had some reminders not to stray outside any rules.
No need for you to make personal attacks when your remarkable success speaks for you to those or believe it or not.
Be cool. Be lucky, but please be nice.
But I've noticed that Axel lays in with a flurry of posts right around this time, but not much during the day. Then, someone said that Axel and MaxPen spend a LOT of time in the casinos. I assumed this meant Vegas casinos (for purposes of time zone I mean, also PST)? So, Axel are you in the casino all day long and then come home around midnight? if so why are all of your posts merely responsive ones, and nothing about anything that happened in the casino all day.
Quote: MDawgResponding to Michael99000:
If he wants to show up in Vegas with fifty grand and play side by side with me for two weeks straight let's see which of us walks ahead and which goes home a loser. Until that day comes.
Ok sure let’s do that.
But why do I have to play? I never made any claims about my own baccarat winnings. You’re challenging me to a contest to see who can do better in a game that’s completely based on luck.
Once again, you have stated that you win consistently and are ahead significantly in Bacc by riding streaks , having a feel for what cards are coming , and walking away at the correct time. Can you prove in 2 weeks that those methods are the keys to beating baccarat?
And when you end the two weeks with less than the $50,000 you started with, what happens ?
Or I'd have 50 x $1000 sessions of 25 hands to start with, or 1250 hands to start with.
I'd probably cash out for the day at $8K-$9.5K in either case if I was on a roll. It's just 10 hands closer from $2K than from $1K.
Yeah, my posting time might seem a little crazy. I basically have no set sleeping schedule and it's constantly changing. Oddly enough, over the last 5 months or so I seem to be sleeping in split shifts. I sleep for about 2-3 hours twice a day give or take an hour or two. I don't think I've slept for a solid eight hours in a very long time.Quote: MDawgI'm curious about the different time periods we post in. I'm usually not posting this late, usually asleep by now (PST). Then I get that OnceDear is 8 or 9 hours ahead so he posts when he posts.
But I've noticed that Axel lays in with a flurry of posts right around this time, but not much during the day. Then, someone said that Axel and MaxPen spend a LOT of time in the casinos. I assumed this meant Vegas casinos (for purposes of time zone I mean, also PST)? So, Axel are you in the casino all day long and then come home around midnight? if so why are all of your posts merely responsive ones, and nothing about anything that happened in the casino all day.
I have partners, so I don't have to be in the casino everyday all day long. I Could be, but I choose not to cuz I've been doing this stuff since about 1993.
Things have changed quite a bit as far as Advantage play goes. Now there's some aspects of Advantage play that I don't don't really enjoy all that much. Things such as traveling. I'm always like," oh f***, I got to go out of town again".
You think staying in fancy casinos is a treat. Been there done that along with the limo rides and the works, it was cool at the time( Oh,and that stuff actually earned I'll making money with a proven mathematical Edge), but Nowadays, I think it's a f****** pain in the ass(well not the limo rides, but I haven't had that opportunity in years). I hate carrying my s*** up to the room, I hate checking in, I hate parking, I hate waiting in lines. I love my place and I'd rather be here than and some fancy suite. Yeah, Sometimes it's nice but only once in awhile.
Nowadays, I'm not so gung-ho being in casinos unless I have a specific reason. I mostly enjoy the aspect of when a good play comes along and you have to go hit it hard for however long it takes until it's over.
So you don't want to play a -EV game to win a bet that could likely be a 50/50 proposition? How silly of you.Quote: michael99000Ok sure let’s do that.
But why do I have to play? I never made any claims about my own baccarat winnings. You’re challenging me to a contest to see who can do better in a game that’s completely based on luck.
Once again, you have stated that you win consistently and are ahead significantly in Bacc by riding streaks , having a feel for what cards are coming , and walking away at the correct time. Can you prove in 2 weeks that those methods are the keys to beating baccarat?
And when you end the two weeks with less than the $50,000 you started with, what happens ?
Of course, you could probably play tournament-style and gain an advantage on the bet, unless he was doing the same thing.
Speaking of MaxPen, I wonder if he'll make me a wager whether or not you'll show up with 50k in cash?Quote: MDawgI'm curious about the different time periods we post in. I'm usually not posting this late, usually asleep by now (PST). Then I get that OnceDear is 8 or 9 hours ahead so he posts when he posts.
But I've noticed that Axel lays in with a flurry of posts right around this time, but not much during the day. Then, someone said that Axel and MaxPen spend a LOT of time in the casinos. I assumed this meant Vegas casinos (for purposes of time zone I mean, also PST)? So, Axel are you in the casino all day long and then come home around midnight? if so why are all of your posts merely responsive ones, and nothing about anything that happened in the casino all day.
I could use some free money, again. 🤣🤣🤣
It Is a chore hauling in and hauling out, especially given all the stuff we bring, which is part of why I like to stay a while on each trip. I must admit I am much more into it than my wife, in fact she'd rather we not come at all, come less frequently, or go someplace else. The only reason she supports it is because of the positive cash flow, which is in fact the only reason I support it - losing is not anything I consider fun or behavior that is worth repeating. And as I have said, I don't do this for a living, I just do it for fun and because my business is such that I'm able to handle most of it remotely. As far as appeasing her: We're going to be on a tropical island (with no casino) for a full month later this year, which we did the same thing last year, and she loves those types of trip. And some other trips to non-gaming locations in 2020. So I tell her, come on, we're here now but we'll be in _____ next month. She does not gamble at all, not a nickel, so it is understandable that she gets bored of Vegas far faster than I do. Plus besides all the other non-gaming trips this year, we'll go skiing a couple weeks in Tahoe and I do not gamble in Tahoe anymore.
Michael99000: the entire premise of the challenge is that you win more than I do! How you gonna do that with no money and no play? Anyway, I'm ready with 50K lines at multiple resorts around town. I think everyone here is abundantly clear on where you stand with your naysaying, so there's no need to keep saying the same thing over and over. Your 50K talks, but Further talk from you...walks.
LOL....
Good one.
If such a player existed and was successful ....he’s not going to be utilizing a casino host for comps or any other swag.
Baccarat is not conducive to card counting and there is no strategic play that overcomes the house edge. One can win. One can lose. One cannot play baccarat at an advantage.
1) As mentioned by michael99000, there are two distinct narrative claims being made by MDawg. One involves the narrative of semi-high stakes gambling, comps, suites, and nice parties. MDawg has provided some photos and a storyline for these claims. This is a rather banal, common storyline for Las Vegas, but if people want to read trip reports, that's fine. The other narrative is that MDawg has somehow won at baccarat and blackjack through some non-mathematical series of tactics. The key here is past tense (has won). It's odds-against, but certainly possible, that he has indeed won to this point, but no real evidence (as opposed to the oxymoronic phrase "decent evidence") has been provided, so there is no reason to believe him other than that one prefers to believe him.
2) It should be a simple matter to ask MDawg if he is ahead lifetime and how many hours of baccarat and blackjack he has played. From whatever figure MDawg provides, one should be able to ascertain a ballpark odds-against for his having actually won. You can establish standard deviations and percentage likelihood from those numbers.
3) If it's implied by MDawg that he thinks he will continue to win (going forward) at a negative game or games, then, Houston, we have an issue. That's where people can rightly point out that MDawg is suggesting some shaky stuff. If, for example, he's implying that he can mentor folks into winning going forward because he has won in the past, well, that's not good.
4) Whenever people claiming to be winning gamblers at negative games bring in the topic of mentoring others, of course any savvy reader will suspect that what they are trying to do is recruit partners/saps/marks from the reading public via PM or other means. And it kind of makes sense if one steps back - why would a bigtime successful gambler bother to post pictures of suites and parties and markers being paid? For what purpose? Narcissism? What good is anonymous narcissism?
5) Anyway, for readers going forward, once MDawg has reported if he's ahead lifetime and how many hands he's played, then readers have a baseline odds-against his having actually done it. As he reports in the future at his playing negative games, if he continues to report that he wins, then one can add the extra hours and hands onto the formula. The odds-against his having still won will grow as the months and trip reports continue. At some point, the odds will get extremely long, and people can continue to believe what they want to believe, or they can assign a probability to the likelihood that the tales are cumulatively true.
6) Now, having said all of that, I can report that I have lost eight sports bets in a row, and I have won (publicly) 17 sports bets in a row. The odds against the latter are the same as death by reptile; strange things can happen. If I hadn't done the latter publicly, I couldn't really complain if people didn't believe me. So, as I'm sure some folks will say, anything is indeed possible.
It's just not likely. Unless MDawg is the Scarlet Witch.
It sounds like one of those ads that start out with the guy showing of all of his fancy cars.
I also hear Herbalife is positive cash flow.
Quote: redietzOkay, all of this oblique back-and-forth is driving me nuts, so I will take a one-thread break from my hiatus to comment. I have spent my entire life evaluating and dealing with odds-against gambling (and paranormal) claims, so let's get to it.
1) As mentioned by michael99000, there are two distinct narrative claims being made by MDawg. One involves the narrative of semi-high stakes gambling, comps, suites, and nice parties. MDawg has provided some photos and a storyline for these claims. This is a rather banal, common storyline for Las Vegas, but if people want to read trip reports, that's fine. The other narrative is that MDawg has somehow won at baccarat and blackjack through some non-mathematical series of tactics. The key here is past tense (has won). It's odds-against, but certainly possible, that he has indeed won to this point, but no real evidence (as opposed to the oxymoronic phrase "decent evidence") has been provided, so there is no reason to believe him other than that one prefers to believe him.
2) It should be a simple matter to ask MDawg if he is ahead lifetime and how many hours of baccarat and blackjack he has played. From whatever figure MDawg provides, one should be able to ascertain a ballpark odds-against for his having actually won. You can establish standard deviations and percentage likelihood from those numbers.
3) If it's implied by MDawg that he thinks he will continue to win (going forward) at a negative game or games, then, Houston, we have an issue. That's where people can rightly point out that MDawg is suggesting some shaky stuff. If, for example, he's implying that he can mentor folks into winning going forward because he has won in the past, well, that's not good.
4) Whenever people claiming to be winning gamblers at negative games bring in the topic of mentoring others, of course any savvy reader will suspect that what they are trying to do is recruit partners/saps/marks from the reading public via PM or other means. And it kind of makes sense if one steps back - why would a bigtime successful gambler bother to post pictures of suites and parties and markers being paid? For what purpose? Narcissism? What good is anonymous narcissism?
5) Anyway, for readers going forward, once MDawg has reported if he's ahead lifetime and how many hands he's played, then readers have a baseline odds-against his having actually done it. As he reports in the future at his playing negative games, if he continues to report that he wins, then one can add the extra hours and hands onto the formula. The odds-against his having still won will grow as the months and trip reports continue. At some point, the odds will get extremely long, and people can continue to believe what they want to believe, or they can assign a probability to the likelihood that the tales are cumulatively true.
6) Now, having said all of that, I can report that I have lost eight sports bets in a row, and I have won (publicly) 17 sports bets in a row. The odds against the latter are the same as death by reptile; strange things can happen. If I hadn't done the latter publicly, I couldn't really complain if people didn't believe me. So, as I'm sure some folks will say, anything is indeed possible.
It's just not likely. Unless MDawg is the Scarlet Witch.
Not one single solitary losing trip in 2 years.
Now, that could simply be 1 or 2 trips. Could be 20. Could be 30. Could be 5. I didn’t see it specified.
Nothing can really be verified and there are lots of factors at play. Martingale? How many sessions, how many trips? Etc, etc.
The problem is that claims such as this are a dime a dozen, many are refuted, few are provable. It’s left up to the reader to decide....is this reality or fantasy?
I’m not a fan of show off, “look at me” type stuff like this...but to each his own. If I win the lottery tomorrow...you’re not going to see me bathing in $100 bills spread out on my bed. To each his own. Keep it classy I say.
These are the Adventures of MDawg. If you'd care to read the WILD Adventures of MDawg, before he got married, you'll need to buy the book.
If you like this thread, read it. If you don't, write your own, or don't read it.
(Or show up with $50K to take the MDawg challenge.)
Thank you for sparing us that.Quote: MDawgIf you'd care to read the WILD Adventures of MDawg, before he got married, you'll need to buy the book.
Quote: MDawgOne more session later today then will move to the next resort tomorrow.
These are the Adventures of MDawg. If you'd care to read the WILD Adventures of MDawg, before he got married, you'll need to buy the book.
If you like this thread, read it. If you don't, write your own, or don't read it.
(Or show up with $50K to take the MDawg challenge.)
The challenge of who can get lucky? Oh sorry I forgot we have to read the shoe’s flow and follow the streaks to beat the house edge. My psychic says that it is unlucky to be superstitious.
Quote: MDawg
Michael99000: the entire premise of the challenge is that you win more than I do! How you gonna do that with no money and no play? Anyway, I'm ready with 50K lines at multiple resorts around town. I think everyone here is abundantly clear on where you stand with your naysaying, so there's no need to keep saying the same thing over and over. Your 50K talks, but Further talk from you...walks.
I don't get the challenge.
What does it prove who wins more? Is your system a winning system or not?
I have sat next to little old ladies betting fifty cents who get a bonus round same time as me betting $5. And through variance they end up winning more. So what?
At Baccarat if you both played the same table, then its pretty easy for you to win more by betting more on the same side as the challenger (I suppose you could lose more but assuming you both wind up winning)
A real challenge would be to put up $50k and following your instructions, you will win for the challenger money. And if you wind up losing his money you guarantee its return considering you wound up full of horse crap.
Otherwise your challenge is a joke
Quote: darkoz
At Baccarat if you both played the same table, then its pretty easy for you to win more by betting more on the same side as the challenger (I suppose you could lose more but assuming you both wind up winning)
In a -EV game I’d say the opposite is true. Whomever bets the least is more likely to come out ahead (in terms of, what we each have left in cash at the end). His nonsense methods of pressing his bet work in my favor mathematically.
What you said would only be true if the results of the challenge were only valid if both people ended up winning.
For example , I’m assuming if we both start with 50k and at the end of the challenge I have 5k and he has nothing , then I won.
The best strategy would be bet the table minimum every hand. Every dollar he bets above that, and the longer the contest lasts, the heavier favorite I become.
Quote: michael99000The best strategy would be bet the table minimum every hand. Every dollar he bets above that, and the longer the contest lasts, the heavier favorite I become.
Wouldn't there be value in someone just having a friendly meet up to observe and cheer on his marvellous high stakes play.
Some of us could wager on whether that could ever happen $:o)
Quote: michael99000In a -EV game I’d say the opposite is true. Whomever bets the least is more likely to come out ahead (in terms of, what we each have left in cash at the end). His nonsense methods of pressing his bet work in my favor mathematically.
What you said would only be true if the results of the challenge were only valid if both people ended up winning.
For example , I’m assuming if we both start with 50k and at the end of the challenge I have 5k and he has nothing , then I won.
The best strategy would be bet the table minimum every hand. Every dollar he bets above that, and the longer the contest lasts, the heavier favorite I become.
I totally get it and agree.
My point is even if there is a winning streak and he won more money it had nothing to do with any winning system if he is simply wagering more every hand
Quote: darkozI totally get it and agree.
My point is even if there is a winning streak and he won more money it had nothing to do with any winning system if he is simply wagering more every hand
Exactly. Which is why it’s pointless.
And if he loses, there’s going to be no admittance that he was wrong.
People who believe in the fallacies he does will never backtrack from it, regardless of results.
Many gamblers need to feel that some aspect of their decision making is causing them to be more likely to win, otherwise they can’t rationalize playing.
Quote: michael99000In a -EV game I’d say the opposite is true. Whomever bets the least is more likely to come out ahead (in terms of, what we each have left in cash at the end). His nonsense methods of pressing his bet work in my favor mathematically.
What you said would only be true if the results of the challenge were only valid if both people ended up winning.
For example , I’m assuming if we both start with 50k and at the end of the challenge I have 5k and he has nothing , then I won.
The best strategy would be bet the table minimum every hand. Every dollar he bets above that, and the longer the contest lasts, the heavier favorite I become.
Difficult thing to do. He could employ a martingale....although risky, would give him a better chance to come out ahead of flat betting.
If he’s using superstition, voodoo or whatever for decision making....great. It’s not rooted in AP play. Beyond that....this is simply a written account of his gambling. Believe what you want. Discard the rest.
Quote: TDVegasDifficult thing to do. He could employ a martingale....although risky, would give him a better chance to come out ahead of flat betting.
If he’s using superstition, voodoo or whatever for decision making....great. It’s not rooted in AP play. Beyond that....this is simply a written account of his gambling. Believe what you want. Discard the rest.
My hope would be that he’d employ the exact same methods that have led to years and years of consistent winning. Why stray from what’s working.
You like talk here yourself because nobody care listen same thing you say no proof
Nobody want read you You have the money you come see mdawg likke he say but I think you have nothing just you talk
Mdawg I like read this you keep up.
Gracias amigo!
Quote: michael99000My hope would be that he’d employ the exact same methods that have led to years and years of consistent winning. Why stray from what’s working.
Ok...but you do realize anything can happen in a session or few?
Quote: MendozaMiguel the way you say same thing over over very ridiculo
You like talk here yourself because nobody care listen same thing you say no proof
Nobody want read you You have the money you come see mdawg likke he say but I think you have nothing just you talk
Mdawg I like read this you keep up.
Gracias amigo!
Hola mi amigo.
Yo el disagree con you. Yo el see mucho other memberos de la forumo who also thinko el mdawg es fullo de crapa
Quote: michael99000Hola mi amigo.
Yo el disagree con you. Yo el see mucho other memberos de la forumo who also thinko el mdawg es fullo de crapa
Yo Laughinga my assa offa
