The Adventures of MDawg

Quote: JohnnyQ

Hello Wellbush:

Here's a friendly formatting tip. When you quote MDawg, you can delete out the 13 or so paragraphs that are not pertinent to your comment.

I admit I am making the assumption that everything that MDawg says does not need to be repeated several times. But you do you.

Yes, I need to tidy up. 👍

Sun's finally out in Vegas. Sunny, blue, clear!

How is any shoe, an "easy pattern shoe" in a random game?

Am I that dumb?

Reminds me of the guy next to me in blackjack yesterday who was convinced the cards were stacked against him and why he split 10's.

I guess Im not as smart as I think I am!

Quote: mwalz9

How is any shoe, an "easy pattern shoe" in a random game?
Am I that dumb? ...
I guess Im not as smart as I think I am!

Dumb and poor and awestruck like the rest of us peasants.

When you are as skilled as MDawg, you can see one Banker result and just know that it will be followed by 15 more. Another time, you can see ZERO player results and know it will be followed by 8 more. Not 6, Not 15, but 8

Quote: MDawg

....and then fell into a 16 Bank run. I might have missed the first hand but got every one after that, pressing all the way

I guess it also helps to be the one who cuts the random shuffled deck.

Must be where I'm failing.

Quote: OnceDear

When you are as skilled as MDawg, you can see one Banker result
and just know that it will be followed by 15 more.

MDawg didn't post that he knew that there would be a Banker run
before it happened, he posted about the run as a report after the fact.

The player doesn't need to know beforehand when the streak will come,
he just needs to know how to play it when it does show up.

The surfer doesn't need to know today which waves he will catch tomorrow,
he just needs to stand up on his board when tomorrow's waves roll in.

He did post the words "easy pattern shoe".

Which to me isn't logically or mathematically possible.

2 guys sit down to play roulette...

One bets red when the last spin was black saying it can't be black forever.

The other bets black saying the numbers come in streaks.

Who wins?

The house does, by exactly the house edge!

I play blackjack and craps at $5 minimum tables.

I am a Diamond tier player at my local casino because I go almost every night.

I get comped a free hotel room with 2 double beds, as long as I use it on Thursday thru Sunday, twice a month.

I have enough players club points where I can drink Miller Lite for free while I play.

I am thinking of getting my girl a ring if I can get the payments low enough thru FingerHut.

Are you guys impressed?

Nah, maybe I'll post a picture with a KIT KAT bar, ya know..."GIVE ME A BREAK!"

A bar for MDawg. When he has a losing session

I see what you did there, it's still not Negative. Unless that is all that's left....

Quote: mwalz9

Which to me isn't logically or mathematically possible.

You must do what you feel is right, of course.

Don't play MDawg's way...everything isn't for everybody.

Quote: coachbelly

You must do what you feel is right, of course.

Don't play MDawg's way...everything isn't for everybody.

We really don’t know what ‘MDawg’s way’ is. The only one who knows what it is (Wiz) is sworn to secrecy.

Still fun reading the trip reports.

Quote: coachbelly

Don't play MDawg's way...

MDawg's way, Fibonacci's way, D'alembert's way...

All of them will eventually succumb to exactly the house edge!

Quote: coachbelly

The player doesn't need to know beforehand when the streak will come,
he just needs to know how to play it when it does show up.

That statement is wrong! The player never knows there was a streak until after the fact.

Quote: mwalz9

MDawg's way, Fibonacci's way, D'alembert's way...

All of them will eventually succumb to exactly the house edge!

Don't worry about it...MDawg's money is not your money.

He may never play long enough to reach expectation.

I hope that all of you people that think these stories are real are just playing devil's advocate.

This forum is filled with some of the greatest minds in math and gambling and people that are debunking systems, strategies, people who think find the holy grail of gambling, and every other far fetched story out there.

Are there really people in here who buy these stories?

Quote: coachbelly

Don't worry about it...MDawg's money is not your money.

He may never play long enough to reach expectation.

Based on the Wizards assessment he is using more than money management methods.

Does that upset Coach and Marcus and Wellbush plans to dominate the casinos in their fantasies?

Quote: darkoz

Based on the Wizards assessment he is using more than money management methods.

There is no basis for you to speculate on the Wizard's very vague assessment.

Quote: mwalz9

Are there really people in here who buy these stories?

Ask the forum's founder, he witnessed MDawg's play.

I don't recall him debunking any of MDawg's claims.

Quote: coachbelly

There is no basis for you to speculate on the Wizard's very vague assessment.

There is every basis because nothing about the Wizard and his response was vague in any manner whatsoever.

He says money management betting systems don't work

He says nothing about witnessing MDawg play has changed that

He says quite unequivocally and to quote "However, THERE IS MORE TO WHAT MDAWG IS DOING, BUT DUE TO CONFIDENTIALITY I AM NOT AT LIBERTY TO DISCUSS THIS"

There is zero vagueness about stating "There is more to what MDawg is doing" clearly referring to money management at the beginning of his paragraph.

Quote: Wizard

I have being saying for over 20 years that betting systems don't work. Not only can't they overcome the house edge, they can't even dent it. My experience with MDawg has not changed my position on that. However, there is more to what MDawg is doing, but due to confidentiality I am not at liberty to discuss this.

As usual, some imprecision. I believe someone was commenting that, during the Wizard observed play, I had won 8/8 Player hands on a run and that there had been no prior Player winning hands. Correct - I won 8/8 Player hands on that run. Incorrect - that there had been no prior Player winning hands in the shoe.

Day 36 play

Pulled a 12K marker. Before you knew it - lost it all. Pulled a 20K marker. Didn't take long before I had lost that.

Another 20K - I rallied some, and moved tables, but lost that too. Just random, choppy shoes I should not have been betting heavily into.

Rather than pull any more markers, I declared that I needed to take a walk, and did that. I actually walked all the way to the Strip and towards another casino when I thought better of it and headed back inside.

Went to the hotel safety deposit box, got my 100K chip I had won and was ahead with, left the rest in there, back to the tables (different table, higher minimum bet) and pulled another 50K marker. I wanted to play in earnest, with a hundred and fifty grand in front of me. Was in no mood for pussy footing around. Yes I suppose now it becomes evident that during the course of the past year my lines have been raised everywhere, but I am still not going to say exactly what they are.

They took forever to verify that the 100K chip was mine. Was quite annoying. I even had to look back on my phone to figure out exactly when and where I had received based on the picture I had taken of all my chips before I converted it. Before they finally had done so, I had dumped another 15K, which meant 67K lost that day.

I was playing pretty hard and actually was down as much as about eighty grand for the day when I started to win, and win handily too.

A few other big players came to my table and insisted that I open all the cards, including this Asian who pulled a 10K marker, lost it, then threw down 20K cash on the table, which took forever to count (I took a bathroom break).

This player was odd - while the others followed me exactly mirroring all my bets, this one would bet however felt fit, and constantly lost when betting against me. Even said, "I'm stupid - you're winning, I should follow you."

I played immensely hard including many bets to the limit.

Finally, after - it seemed like a long time - I was down it seemed like only 5K for the day, and I walked. Before I walked I colored back up to the 100K chip plus enough pumpkins to pay off all markers, and made sure they had logged that 100K chip to my account so that when I converted it to a check or bank wire at trip's end I wouldn't be standing at the cage forever as I had to that day at the table. The one who constantly bet against me had won a couple of huge hands that I did not bet (free handed) and was actually up 10K it seemed to me, but said that he was down sixty K so that while would normally walk, was hanging in there trying to get back to even. I was going to mention to this player that anything could win today would help, versus dumping everything, but, wasn't really following or listening to me anyway other than saying that I scared the hell out of because I kept winning whenever bet against me.

I went back to one of the slightly lower minimum tables to try to win that last five grand, and actually dumped fifty before you knew it. Then followed a period when I was betting five to ten K per hand, and got it all back, but STILL needed that five grand - or thought I did anyway.

I started playing really "small," just 500 - 1000 per hand and it was taking forever to get that five grand. This dealer didn't know me (different shift too) and seemed not all that interested in my play - maybe because I wasn't tipping? but I had tipped out more than enough including a couple hundred dollar chips on the side for the dealers at the higher limit table.

This player came down and sat next to me - betting only 100 a hand at this smaller minimum table, but was pretty interesting in an oddball way. One of those who would take forever to look at two cards that couldn't possibly add up to more than 3. At one point commented "Nice watch!" and I mentioned that this was my LUCKIEST watch, which it was. I wear it only when really in the hole and needing to make a comeback. I reserve it for the most serious of play. I had put it on when I pulled the 100K chip out from one of the safety deposit boxes.

Anyway, finally I had it - the whole five grand. I went to the cage, paid off all markers, tore out signatures, and went and ordered a massive amount of take out food - rib eye steak, Caesar salad, grilled chicken sandwiches, smoothies, noodle soups, just tons. Winning always brings back my appetite.

I put the chips into the "vault" again, carefully wrote down exactly what was in there, and ahead back upstairs to take a shower - and EAT! After ate with my wife who commented that I had been playing all day, and should have eaten sooner, I went over the tally for the day - and it turned out that I had actually won a couple grand.

Not bad considering that I had been down about eighty for the day at one point.

+2000.

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

One thing is for sure, if I deserved the high roller's suite, as that pit boss good humoredly commented on the Day 35 play, I certainly deserved it after the Day 36 play! Average bet was easily in the thousands, for many hours on end.

Up in the suite, was laughing with my wife over how it went that day (without getting into numbers, "numbers" don't mean much to a wife, if you understand my drift).

I said that I was like Matt Damon in Rounders, "HANGING around, and HANGING around - kid's got alligator blood" in that I waited patiently all day until I could finally win everything back. Well - the patience was definitely there all day long - other than when I dumped the fifty towards the very end and almost immediately got it back. In a way though, that too was Rounders like.

You must be kicking yourself...

for not walking out when you could.

Bad judgment.

But...

(and here's the but)...ALL'S WELL THAT ENDS WELL!







you can't lose what you don't put in the middle.

But you can't win much either.

But finally, I've learned this...

If you're too careful, your whole life can become a _____' grind.

Quote: MDawg

and I mentioned that this was my LUCKIEST watch, which it was. I wear it only when really in the hole and needing to make a comeback. I reserve it for the most serious of play. I had put it on when I pulled the 100K chip out from one of the safety deposit boxes

Ha, he let it slip, he let it slip ! So the CAT is finally OUT of the BAG NOW. It's the Watch, it's the Watch !

No, it wasn't just the watch. I also wore my luckiest gold necklace that goes hand in hand with that particular watch.

Nothing feels better than coming back from a big deficit to eke out a small win. One of my most memorable ‘sessions’ started with 16 losses in a row at Pai Gow (ignoring ties). Some hours later I walked away a small winner, mostly flat betting.

ABSOLUTELY.

Coming back from a big neg to even just flat even (which is what I thought I had done, didn't realize I had actually won a couple K until later) is a great feeling.

Just like when...your stock rallies back from in the hole to in the green.

People are talking about Palms Vegas being sold to an Indian tribe. Assuming it goes through - is the Indian tribe running the Virgin Vegas offering anything good? I do know that definitely at least during the Peter Morton Hard Rock Vegas days that place was sweaty as may be, towards all winning, especially via Blackjack. Under Mohegan Sun it couldn't be any worse than it was.

One thing was funny, or at least I thought it was funny, during that Day 36 monster play session(s). I played so long that it was across two different shifts. The first shift consisted of pit bosses that know me and are always rooting for me. Very animated crew.

Then the second shift - these two pit bosses came in that were practically wooden. Showed no emotions whatsoever. So, I started joking with the player to my left - the one who kept saying was "stupid" and should be betting with me rather than against me, that "____ must have seen it all." and "Not much impresses this one." and so on. I mean, I'd win a table limit bet and the pit boss wouldn't even react. I'd shout, laughing, "Be sure you got that one recorded!" and this pit boss would not even crack a smile or give much more than a brief nod of recognition.

Then - I started winning hand after hand pressing all the way, and this most staid of the pit bosses, suddenly declared, "Player run!"

I couldn't believe it. ____? getting involved with our play?

and then before each hand, "Pay the Player!"

That, for this one, was the equivalent of high fiving me I suppose, and jumping out of seat.

"Hey, we even caught _____'s attention now!" I laughed.

Another gem during that aforementioned Player run that even pit boss ____ got caught up in - which went on something like 11 hands, and I was pressing like a madman into each hand, before each one the dealer would say, sweetly, "Good luuuuck."

After a few hands it became evident that I was, pausing waiting for that salutation, before the cards were dealt, and every time it was said, the whole table laughed. It was like our mandatory good luck mantra before each hand.

What's sad though - and here's my partial opinion on why so many Baccarat players don't win - I was the only one at the table who both caught, and pressed into that entire run. Player to my left - the stubborn one - played maybe one in five of the hands and just stared at the growing line of blue on the screen. To my right, one player, who did follow me religiously, flat betted the minimum all the way down the line.

"Let me tell you something about this game - when you get a chance to win big, you must take it." -MDawg


you can't lose what you don't put in the middle.

But you can't win much either.

OK. Things do make more sense to me now.

He loses. He just has a massive bankroll somehow to bet very big chasing his losses.

There is no magic here.

Get down, bet bigger. Get down, bet bigger.

No secret to that sauce.

Quote: MDawg

Or just don't care.

I read this forum because my favorite genre of material is "comical fiction".

Quote: MDawg

As usual, some imprecision. I believe someone was commenting that, during the Wizard observed play, I had won 8/8 Player hands on a run and that there had been no prior Player winning hands. Correct - I won 8/8 Player hands on that run. Incorrect - that there had been no prior Player winning hands in the shoe.

All down to interpretation. I was referring to your uncanny ability to recognise a run of 8 Player, before the first player in that streak, not that shoe.
One thing to get confident that you are in a long streak, when some way into it. Quite another to bet confidently into one that has not yet begun.
But what the hell. You are entitled to be lucky. And having been lucky, you are entitled to cheer and brag about it.

Unlike some in this thread, I accept that you have been, and so far continue to be, a lucky high roller. But I do not believe you have any secret or special precognition skill or advantage play, as DarkOz and maybe Wizard do.

Maybe it's just the ratio between win goal and session bankroll that has given you the almost inevitable winning sessions. But I'm starting to perceive your overconfidence.

Gravity has a habit of prevailing.

There may have been a time in the very distant past where I certainly entertained the concept of enjoying being down because I thought it was fun to rally and come back.

No more, and definitely playing catch up is not fun (until after the fact, fait accompli).

I did not enjoy being down some fifty K, did not enjoy being down some eighty K (although at that moment I was more concentrating on just winning it didn't bother me as much, somehow, as the initial drop), and worst of all - felt like a prize horse's arse after deciding to sit down just to win back the last -5K (which later it turned out was only -3K) and suddenly being once again down some fifty.

But, it did end well and for reasons that ___________, I am the only short or long term winner I see in those high limit salons. Although lately, some pit bosses have told me anecdotally about other lifetime winners, so - we do exist.

As I have stated before, no mechanical system of betting works.

However, flat betting doesn't work either.



you can't lose what you don't put in the middle.

But you can't win much either.

Quote: MDawg

Day 36 play

This player was odd - while the others followed me exactly mirroring all my bets, this one would bet however felt fit, and constantly lost when betting against me. Even said, "I'm stupid - you're winning, I should follow you."

Another gem from this session was that this player would occasionally say, “You scare the hell out of me. I’m not scared of the dealer – but I’m scared of you. You’re too lucky!” When would say that, I wanted to ask, “So why keep betting against me?”

Of course, I already knew the answer. “Because I’m stupid.” – which did say that more than once.

Quote: MDawg

As I have stated before, no mechanical system of betting works.

However, flat betting doesn't work either.



you can't lose what you don't put in the middle.

But you can't win much either.

Which pretty much leaves just advantage play

Quote: darkoz

Which pretty much leaves just advantage play

Or Lucky play with what is effectively progressive wagering, at the buy-in level (pulling progressively bigger markers) and with big 'case' bets when in recovery mode.
I'm bemused that Darkoz is looking for the advantage play. Not much different to Scarne's, or rather the excited pit-boss's, error.

Quote: OnceDear

I'm bemused that Darkoz is looking for the advantage play.

You have to keep up, OD! Your boss, The Wiz, said there was ‘something extra’ that MDawg was doing that Wiz was prohibiting from divulging to the forum. It at least implied it was an advantage play of some sort.

Quote: SOOPOO

You have to keep up, OD! Your boss, The Wiz, said there was ‘something extra’ that MDawg was doing that Wiz was prohibiting from divulging to the forum. It at least implied it was an advantage play of some sort.

Oh, I do keep up with this soap opera. Never miss an episode.
I saw what the Wiz said and I saw the 'trip report.'
In the absence of the Wiz saying that he saw some significant 'secret trick' at the table, I'll continue to believe that there was none. NO Advantage play against the GAME.
The 'something extra' that Wiz saw would have to be pretty spectacular and conspicuous to beat the game at the table.
I reckon what Wiz got a glimpse of was away from the table, where MDawg has some crafty 'trick or combination of strategies*' that maybe maximises his comps or minimises his taxes. E.g. where he persuades pit bosses to note down his average bet size on the high side.
So yes. I think Darkoz is wrong to think MDawg has anything to offer by way of beating Baccarat. To even mention that Scarne system was to give more credibility than it deserves to glorified Marty mumbo jumbo.

*'trick' is not meant in any pejorative or accusatory way.

Quote: OnceDear

Oh, I do keep up with this soap opera. Never miss an episode.
I saw what the Wiz said and I saw the 'trip report.'
In the absence of the Wiz saying that he saw some significant 'secret trick' at the table, I'll continue to believe that there was none. NO Advantage play against the GAME.
The 'something extra' that Wiz saw would have to be pretty spectacular and conspicuous to beat the game at the table.
I reckon what Wiz got a glimpse of was away from the table, where MDawg has some crafty 'trick or combination of strategies*' that maybe maximises his comps or minimises his taxes. E.g. where he persuades pit bosses to note down his average bet size on the high side.
So yes. I think Darkoz is wrong to think MDawg has anything to offer by way of beating Baccarat. To even mention that Scarne system was to give more credibility than it deserves to glorified Marty mumbo jumbo.

*'trick' is not meant in any pejorative or accusatory way.

While anything is possible and you could turn out to be correct that the Wizard was duped I believe his direct view of the action and his knowledge over your views.

It's the Wizardofodds not the OnceDear of Odds.

Phil Ivey proved there are methods for beating Baccarat and certainly MDawg would not want those given away. I doubt it's edge sorting but then he does fit into high roller category and stranger things than casinos with short memories has occurred.

It took ten million dollars for Ivey to awaken the Borgata. And MDawg isn't pulling those types of numbers.

But I suspect it's something else that involves cards and high roller requests

Let the record show that MDawg allowed me to view privately a picture that included a picture of a 100K Vegas casino chip. The picture was verifiably taken yesterday. The chip comes from the same casino at which I viewed him play. Within this picture was also a picture of a 100 Grand candy bar, and also his platinum Day Date Rolex that I handled personally when I met with him.

Quote: darkoz

While anything is possible and you could turn out to be correct that the Wizard was duped

Did Once Dear assert that the Wizard was duped?

Quote: darkoz

Which pretty much leaves just advantage play

This is nothing more than wishful thinking on your part.

Quote: coachbelly

Did Once Dear assert that the Wizard was duped?

This is nothing more than wishful thinking on your part.

There is a lot of wishful thinking on my part when it comes to you and your posts

Quote: Wizard

and also his platinum Day Date Rolex that I handled personally when I met with him.

Can you tell the difference between a real one and a knock off? You can get a knock-off Rolex for $500 and only a Rolex dealer can tell if it's real or not. You have to take the back off and look at the works and even then it would take a Rolex dealer to tell you if it's real.

There is too much Ricky Jay-ness in everything to do with this whole situation. Ricky Jay used to say 'nothing you see here is real'. But it sure looks real. He was barred from all Vegas casinos for good reason. He would practice card tricks sitting at red lights and waiting in line at the bank. He had a lifelong obsession with magic and had the largest collection of books on magic in the world when he died.

Quote: Wizard

Let the record show that MDawg allowed me to view privately a picture that included a picture of a 100K Vegas casino chip. The picture was verifiably taken yesterday. The chip comes from the same casino at which I viewed him play. Within this picture was also a picture of a 100 Grand candy bar, and also his platinum Day Date Rolex that I handled personally when I met with him.

So MDawg is staying at the Aria or Paris?

Don't answer that, lol.

Just pointing out the power of Google.