Pressing on the win or on the loss?
October 19th, 2019 at 9:00:34 PM
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blackjack, baccarat (banker), craps (single pass or dont pass with max odds), ultimate texas holdem
What i do is press my bet 50% on every win and reset back to the original bet when i lose.
ie: 10,15,20,30,45, etc
OnceDear posted that he uses a limited Martingale and presses up to a certain point on the loss till he wins.
ie: 10,20,30,30,30,30,30... till he wins
Which is better for staying in the game longer?
I think OnceDear's strategy is better in that regard.
i think my strategy has a better chance to either come out ahead in a -EV game or lose faster.
What do you think?
What i do is press my bet 50% on every win and reset back to the original bet when i lose.
ie: 10,15,20,30,45, etc
OnceDear posted that he uses a limited Martingale and presses up to a certain point on the loss till he wins.
ie: 10,20,30,30,30,30,30... till he wins
Which is better for staying in the game longer?
I think OnceDear's strategy is better in that regard.
i think my strategy has a better chance to either come out ahead in a -EV game or lose faster.
What do you think?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
October 19th, 2019 at 9:42:36 PM
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If you're playing BJ and monitoring the flow of the cards and know the count, then winning or losing a bet shouldn't affect the amount of the next bet - it should depend only on the flow/count.
In a game like Baccarat there is no count to track, but if you've played enough Baccarat you know soon enough whether you're in a good shoe that's following a pattern, or a bad one that is random. There's no specific "system" to betting in Baccarat that guarantees a win, but if you're in a good shoe and you keep winning one hand after another that keeps following a pattern, you should realize quickly enough that you should be pressing and just following the pattern until it breaks. In Baccarat if you keep losing bets and the shoe doesn't seem to be following any discernible pattern, time to reduce your bet or leave.
In a game like Baccarat there is no count to track, but if you've played enough Baccarat you know soon enough whether you're in a good shoe that's following a pattern, or a bad one that is random. There's no specific "system" to betting in Baccarat that guarantees a win, but if you're in a good shoe and you keep winning one hand after another that keeps following a pattern, you should realize quickly enough that you should be pressing and just following the pattern until it breaks. In Baccarat if you keep losing bets and the shoe doesn't seem to be following any discernible pattern, time to reduce your bet or leave.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 20th, 2019 at 5:09:20 AM
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Try one system on odd days and the other system on even days. Or perhaps morning versus afternoon.
October 20th, 2019 at 11:13:32 AM
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Increasing a flat bet after a loss is bad for several reasons. Doing so not only increases the at-risk exposure percentage of the now-reduced total bankroll but also surrenders to the natural reaction to frustration. Going on "tilt" is a lurking possibility.
Increasing the exposure percentage is best using only profits after full recovery. A 50% increase after a single win of a flat bet is premature. I recommend fully restoring your rails with your first win. Additional future wins should add to your rails as well as increase the size of your flat bet. You will have a powerful defense against normal wild fluctuations. In short, you will remain in the game a long time and you will be available for a prolonged positive sequence.
An EV of either plus or minus two percent will make little relative difference if your total number of flat bets is only a few hundred. Variance will have a far greater impact on overall results.
You may consider using graph paper to plot out alternative growth paths for your rails under alternative bet size growth paths. Remember that the growth path for your rails begins at negative one bet.
Nothing above is a strategy for winning. It is a strategy for not losing quickly.
Increasing the exposure percentage is best using only profits after full recovery. A 50% increase after a single win of a flat bet is premature. I recommend fully restoring your rails with your first win. Additional future wins should add to your rails as well as increase the size of your flat bet. You will have a powerful defense against normal wild fluctuations. In short, you will remain in the game a long time and you will be available for a prolonged positive sequence.
An EV of either plus or minus two percent will make little relative difference if your total number of flat bets is only a few hundred. Variance will have a far greater impact on overall results.
You may consider using graph paper to plot out alternative growth paths for your rails under alternative bet size growth paths. Remember that the growth path for your rails begins at negative one bet.
Nothing above is a strategy for winning. It is a strategy for not losing quickly.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
October 21st, 2019 at 12:11:04 AM
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I personally do the same strategy as you.
The other strategy is better to stay in the game longer, but that's not where the fun is for me. The fun for me is in the potentially big payout you get once in a while.
After I started using this pattern (pretty recently), I did get to 8x of my starting amount once, which was pretty fun.
The other strategy is better to stay in the game longer, but that's not where the fun is for me. The fun for me is in the potentially big payout you get once in a while.
After I started using this pattern (pretty recently), I did get to 8x of my starting amount once, which was pretty fun.
October 21st, 2019 at 12:14:31 AM
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Quote: MDawgIf you're playing BJ and monitoring the flow of the cards and know the count, then winning or losing a bet shouldn't affect the amount of the next bet - it should depend only on the flow/count.
But what is the solution for when the count is good and flow is bad, or flow is good but count is bad?
October 21st, 2019 at 2:38:38 AM
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Quote: mcallister3200But what is the solution for when the count is good and flow is bad, or flow is good but count is bad?
Let’s think about this logically. Who is more likely to be in casinos, winners or losers? I say winners, because people who lose don’t generally come back. Winners come back to the casino to win more. This weeds out the lucky players versus the true winners.
I’m sure you’ve heard it as much as I have, someone at the table getting mad at a newbie for messing with the flow of the cards, asking other players not to jump in because there’s a good flow of cards right now, etc. It seems like it happens at least once a session, but likely much more than that. Even dealers will comment on it, and they are professionals at the game since they deal it 40 hours a week.
Now, how many times have you heard someone talking about the “count” while at the table? Probably a few times, but not anywhere nearly as often as people talk about the flow of the cards. Sometimes newbie dealers even mention the count — but how much can we really trust them to know anything about the game if they deal it (shouldn’t they be playing if they’re so smart)?
It’s obvious, the flow of the cards actually matters and the count doesn’t, because so many people talk about the flow of the cards and not the count, and casinos are mostly made up of winners (and a few losers) because winners come back and losers stay away.
Thank you for coming to my ted talk.
October 21st, 2019 at 5:20:19 AM
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Win 1, lose 2.
Win 1, lose 2.
Win 1, lose 2.
Win 1, lose 2.
Win 1, lose 2.
Win 1, lose 2.
Win 1, lose 2.
Win 1, lose 2.
Win 1, lose 2.
Win 1, lose 2.
Win 1, lose 2.
Win 1, lose 2.
Win 1, lose 2.
Win 1, lose 2.
Win 1, lose 2.
Win 1, lose 2.
Win 1, lose 2.
Win 1, lose 2.
Win 1, lose 2.
October 21st, 2019 at 9:26:48 AM
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Quote: mcallister3200But what is the solution for when the count is good and flow is bad, or flow is good but count is bad?
If you mean the sessions where the count is good but you're getting 12s and 13s ceaselessly, it's time to just leave.
If you mean sessions where the count is good the flow LOOKS good but for some reason the dealer is getting the twenties and blackjacks and you're not, this is just the way it happens sometimes and theoretically as long as everything remains in your favor it should continue to swing in your direction until the count/flow change. I mean there are times when everything seems perfect and I jump the bet and lose, then for the very next hand or two I play with emotion and drop the bet only to win the next few in a row, including with a blackjack.
Keep in mind that the count/flow simply swing things in your direction, don't guarantee a win. But over all, I've succeeded in winning a lot at BJ and being banned for a couple years or so due to jumping the bet to the flow of the cards, so it has worked out for me and the casinos obviously don't like it.
Last edited by: MDawg on Oct 21, 2019
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 21st, 2019 at 9:31:26 AM
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If you press on a loss, you'll either lose more money or get back to even.
If you press on a win, you'll either win more money or go back to even.
If you press on a win, you'll either win more money or go back to even.
October 21st, 2019 at 10:21:35 AM
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Quote: MDawgIf you mean the sessions where the count is good but you're getting 12s and 13s ceaselessly, it's time to just leave.
If you mean sessions where the count is good the flow LOOKS good but for some reason the dealer is getting the twenties and blackjacks and you're not, this is just the way it happens sometimes and theoretically as long as everything remains in your favor it should continue to swing in your direction until the count/flow change. I mean there times when everything seems perfect and I jump the bet and lose, then for the very next hand or two I play with emotion and drop the bet only to win the next few in a row, including with a blackjack.
Keep in mind that the count/flow simply swing things in your direction, don't guarantee a win. But over all, I've succeeded in winning a lot and being banned for a couple years or so due to jumping the bet to the flow of the cards, so it has worked out for me and the casinos obviously don't like it.
October 21st, 2019 at 11:37:23 AM
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I used the probabilities for each outcome from https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/variance/ and did 100 runs of 50K hands using either strategy + flat betting:
Used random number generator in Excel.
Pressing after win give a lower average bet then "Max 3 martingale" so it should be better in long run. Flatbetting was about 1% off expected loss.
Sorry poor english.
Used random number generator in Excel.
| Run | Win | Average Bet | LM3 | Average bet | Flat Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run 1 | -300 | 1,86 | -317 | 2,07 | -193 |
| Run 2 | 884 | 1,88 | -179,5 | 2,07 | 133,5 |
| Run 3 | -1204 | 1,85 | -654,5 | 2,08 | -431,5 |
| Run 4 | -88 | 1,87 | -757,5 | 2,07 | -237,5 |
| Run 5 | -104 | 1,86 | 692,5 | 2,07 | 175,5 |
| Run 6 | 243,5 | 1,88 | 778,5 | 2,07 | 287,5 |
| Run 7 | -89,5 | 1,86 | -427,5 | 2,07 | -33,5 |
| Run 8 | -962 | 1,86 | -963,5 | 2,07 | -421 |
| Run 9 | 134,5 | 1,87 | -48,5 | 2,07 | 67,5 |
| Run 10 | -331 | 1,86 | -432 | 2,08 | -211 |
| Run 11 | 574,5 | 1,88 | 256 | 2,07 | 203 |
| Run 12 | -695,5 | 1,85 | -1941 | 2,08 | -667 |
| Run 13 | -326,5 | 1,86 | -435,5 | 2,08 | -169,5 |
| Run 14 | -508,5 | 1,86 | -663,5 | 2,08 | -302,5 |
| Run 15 | -1809 | 1,84 | -1810,5 | 2,09 | -936 |
| Run 16 | 407 | 1,88 | 128 | 2,07 | 75 |
| Run 17 | -246 | 1,86 | -29,5 | 2,07 | -103,5 |
| Run 18 | -364,5 | 1,87 | -267,5 | 2,08 | -242,5 |
| Run 19 | -685 | 1,86 | -219,5 | 2,07 | -171,5 |
| Run 20 | 333,5 | 1,87 | -552,5 | 2,07 | -66 |
| Run 21 | -228,5 | 1,86 | 261 | 2,07 | 28 |
| Run 22 | 127 | 1,87 | -425 | 2,07 | -58 |
| Run 23 | -150 | 1,87 | -913 | 2,07 | -252 |
| Run 24 | 597 | 1,88 | -123 | 2,07 | 115 |
| Run 25 | 754 | 1,88 | -257,5 | 2,07 | 96,5 |
| Run 26 | 179 | 1,88 | 668,5 | 2,06 | 254,5 |
| Run 27 | -182,5 | 1,86 | 643 | 2,07 | 155,5 |
| Run 28 | -988,5 | 1,86 | -1073,5 | 2,08 | -483,5 |
| Run 29 | 102 | 1,87 | -280 | 2,07 | -56 |
| Run 30 | 92,5 | 1,87 | 194 | 2,07 | 106 |
| Run 31 | -661,5 | 1,86 | -1347,5 | 2,08 | -525,5 |
| Run 32 | -825 | 1,85 | -1246,5 | 2,08 | -553,5 |
| Run 33 | 225,5 | 1,87 | 695 | 2,06 | 286 |
| Run 34 | -252 | 1,87 | 577 | 2,07 | 202 |
| Run 35 | 432 | 1,88 | 131 | 2,07 | 141 |
| Run 36 | 399 | 1,88 | -47 | 2,07 | 61 |
| Run 37 | -1085,5 | 1,85 | -738 | 2,08 | -352 |
| Run 38 | -219 | 1,87 | -98,5 | 2,07 | -42,5 |
| Run 39 | 337 | 1,87 | 155 | 2,07 | 190 |
| Run 40 | -91 | 1,87 | 192 | 2,07 | 56 |
| Run 41 | -44 | 1,87 | -828,5 | 2,07 | -307 |
| Run 42 | 766,5 | 1,88 | 578,5 | 2,07 | 265,5 |
| Run 43 | 650 | 1,87 | -436 | 2,07 | 28 |
| Run 44 | -961 | 1,85 | -514 | 2,08 | -386 |
| Run 45 | 184,5 | 1,87 | -547 | 2,07 | -83,5 |
| Run 46 | -378 | 1,86 | -660,5 | 2,08 | -251,5 |
| Run 47 | 102 | 1,87 | 59,5 | 2,07 | 0,5 |
| Run 48 | -873,5 | 1,85 | -965 | 2,08 | -434 |
| Run 49 | -930 | 1,85 | -567,5 | 2,08 | -386,5 |
| Run 50 | -1590 | 1,84 | -773 | 2,08 | -537 |
| Run 51 | -766,5 | 1,85 | -539,5 | 2,07 | -279,5 |
| Run 52 | 902 | 1,88 | -56 | 2,06 | 237 |
| Run 53 | -128,5 | 1,87 | -209 | 2,07 | -37 |
| Run 54 | 603,5 | 1,88 | -986 | 2,07 | -107 |
| Run 55 | 197,5 | 1,88 | 409 | 2,07 | 75 |
| Run 56 | -409 | 1,86 | -646 | 2,08 | -262 |
| Run 57 | -735,5 | 1,86 | -807 | 2,08 | -351 |
| Run 58 | -284,5 | 1,86 | 82,5 | 2,07 | 1,5 |
| Run 59 | 162,5 | 1,86 | 227 | 2,07 | 72 |
| Run 60 | -1263 | 1,85 | -763,5 | 2,08 | -550,5 |
| Run 61 | 213 | 1,88 | 142 | 2,07 | 84 |
| Run 62 | -856,5 | 1,85 | -1497 | 2,08 | -682,5 |
| Run 63 | -493 | 1,86 | 380,5 | 2,07 | -26,5 |
| Run 64 | 175 | 1,87 | 307,5 | 2,07 | 110,5 |
| Run 65 | -932 | 1,85 | -673 | 2,08 | -475 |
| Run 66 | 646 | 1,88 | 360 | 2,07 | 301 |
| Run 67 | -1096,5 | 1,85 | -707 | 2,08 | -359 |
| Run 68 | -145,5 | 1,87 | -344,5 | 2,07 | -49,5 |
| Run 69 | -954 | 1,85 | -1099,5 | 2,08 | -496,5 |
| Run 70 | 346 | 1,87 | -347,5 | 2,07 | -10,5 |
| Run 71 | -716 | 1,86 | -612,5 | 2,07 | -348,5 |
| Run 72 | -212 | 1,87 | -286,5 | 2,07 | -91,5 |
| Run 73 | -435,5 | 1,86 | -809,5 | 2,08 | -465,5 |
| Run 74 | -45 | 1,87 | -191,5 | 2,07 | -98,5 |
| Run 75 | -958 | 1,85 | -605,5 | 2,08 | -370,5 |
| Run 76 | -1229,5 | 1,85 | -675 | 2,08 | -437 |
| Run 77 | -991 | 1,85 | -1206,5 | 2,08 | -577,5 |
| Run 78 | -439,5 | 1,86 | 429 | 2,07 | -18 |
| Run 79 | 428,5 | 1,88 | 84,5 | 2,07 | 80,5 |
| Run 80 | 17,5 | 1,87 | -170,5 | 2,07 | -48,5 |
| Run 81 | 173 | 1,88 | -357,5 | 2,07 | -120,5 |
| Run 82 | 412 | 1,88 | 643 | 2,06 | 297 |
| Run 83 | -470 | 1,86 | -933,5 | 2,07 | -413,5 |
| Run 84 | 149 | 1,87 | 594,5 | 2,07 | 169,5 |
| Run 85 | -840,5 | 1,85 | -1012,5 | 2,08 | -455,5 |
| Run 86 | 631,5 | 1,87 | -28,5 | 2,07 | 49,5 |
| Run 87 | -520 | 1,85 | -616 | 2,08 | -252 |
| Run 88 | -124,5 | 1,86 | -997,5 | 2,08 | -384,5 |
| Run 89 | -257,5 | 1,86 | -237,5 | 2,07 | -94 |
| Run 90 | -960 | 1,86 | -590 | 2,07 | -392 |
| Run 91 | -230,5 | 1,87 | -64 | 2,07 | -98 |
| Run 92 | -1306 | 1,85 | 300,5 | 2,07 | -199,5 |
| Run 93 | -777 | 1,86 | -839 | 2,08 | -411 |
| Run 94 | 133,5 | 1,87 | 72,5 | 2,07 | -1,5 |
| Run 95 | 582,5 | 1,88 | -638 | 2,07 | -69 |
| Run 96 | -176 | 1,86 | -363 | 2,07 | -178 |
| Run 97 | -675,5 | 1,86 | -117,5 | 2,07 | -146,5 |
| Run 98 | 96,5 | 1,87 | -231,5 | 2,07 | -32,5 |
| Run 99 | 511 | 1,88 | 424,5 | 2,06 | 177,5 |
| Run 100 | 207,5 | 1,87 | -432,5 | 2,07 | -144,5 |
| Total | -22489 | 1,86 | -31765,5 | 2,07 | -13846,5 |
| Expected | -26105 | -29020 | -14000 |
Pressing after win give a lower average bet then "Max 3 martingale" so it should be better in long run. Flatbetting was about 1% off expected loss.
Sorry poor english.
October 25th, 2019 at 3:01:43 PM
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i think you're saying keep flat betting till im back to breakeven? then press?Quote: pwcrabbIncreasing a flat bet after a loss is bad for several reasons. Doing so not only increases the at-risk exposure percentage of the now-reduced total bankroll but also surrenders to the natural reaction to frustration. Going on "tilt" is a lurking possibility.
Increasing the exposure percentage is best using only profits after full recovery. A 50% increase after a single win of a flat bet is premature.
I recommend fully restoring your rails with your first win. Additional future wins should add to your rails as well as increase the size of your flat bet. You will have a powerful defense against normal wild fluctuations. In short, you will remain in the game a long time and you will be available for a prolonged positive sequence.
or 1st win goes to rail then use 50% of 2nd win to rail, other 50% to increase bet even if im down?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
October 25th, 2019 at 3:08:19 PM
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Quote: TorghattenI used the probabilities for each outcome from https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/variance/ and did 100 runs of 50K hands using either strategy + flat betting:
Used random number generator in Excel.
Run Win Average Bet LM3 Average bet Flat Bet Run 1 -300 1,86 -317 2,07 -193 Run 100 207,5 1,87 -432,5 2,07 -144,5 Total -22489 1,86 -31765,5 2,07 -13846,5 Expected -26105 -29020 -14000
Pressing after win give a lower average bet then "Max 3 martingale" so it should be better in long run. Flatbetting was about 1% off expected loss.
Sorry poor english.
thx for the table!
wow... at results.
im staying away from doing a Martingale.
surprised at results of pressing when winning.
and i guess i should stay away from pressing when winning too??
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
October 25th, 2019 at 3:54:38 PM
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Being up or down financially compared to some arbitrarily selected previous moment, such as the moment of buy-in, is always irrelevant. All previous moments must be disregarded. Doing so is emotionally very difficult for most humans.
For selecting wager size, all that matters is the stake now in front of you and the sequence of game outcomes. Never press following a loss. In a flat bet game such as Baccarat, begin to press following the second or third consecutive win. If the press requires a full doubling of the wager, then do so following the fourth consecutive win. If the sequence of consecutive wins persists, then accumulate revenue at that doubled wager size for a while before considering progressing.
For selecting wager size, all that matters is the stake now in front of you and the sequence of game outcomes. Never press following a loss. In a flat bet game such as Baccarat, begin to press following the second or third consecutive win. If the press requires a full doubling of the wager, then do so following the fourth consecutive win. If the sequence of consecutive wins persists, then accumulate revenue at that doubled wager size for a while before considering progressing.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
