betting on streaks
Quote: MDawgI can't read most of this thread as blocked, but the title makes perfect sense. This is what we DO in all gambling, including say in Baccarat. I've made MA$$ doing this. Try to tell the two brothers on the top of floor of my hotel, currently up two million in Baccarat, that you don't bet streaks.
Quote: EvenBobARRGUH!!! I never SAID it was a winner, I never IMPLIED it was a winner. In fact I said it was NOT a winner! Good god!
It's a fricking method to manage LOSSES. It's a way to make your money last longer. Get IT? Got IT?
sigh..
Now I don't know what to believe. EB says betting on streaks is not a way to earn money at a casino; MD says it is. We know they both must be right, because EB has a method where he earns money at the casino, and MD has also proven that he earns money at the casino
Quote: EvenBobIt's not a system, it's a method. I never EVER bet streaks, why would I, you can't win.
The only time a roulette wheel does not have a streak of 1 or more is on it's very first spin. That would never happen on a casino floor. So if your method does not allow you to EVER bet streaks, how can you EVER make a bet?
Quote: EvenBobThis whole thing started because I bet the champ in Jeopardy would continue to win because my advice is always to bet with streaks if you must bet on them.
Betting against a streak means losing 5.26% of all money wagered, according to both long division and a google search. Explain how betting with a streak means a better result than that
Quote: TomGBetting against a streak means losing 5.26% of all money wagered, according to both long division and a google search. Explain how betting with a streak means a better result than that
Good GOD! This is my last post in this
thread. This is the LAST time I'll
explain this.
In betting streaks, the goal is
to win one unit. You bet till you
win or till the streak ends.. Bet against
the streak and lose and you
have to use a progression. This
means you stand to lose more than
one unit. So instead, bet with the
streak and you'll lose one unit
or gain one.
This will make your money last longer
because you have wait for more streaks
to appear. You will never ever ever ever
ever ever ever ever ever ever
make money using this method. It's for
managing losses and playing longer.
Get it? Got it? This is a first, I'm going
block my own thread because I can't keep
answering the same questions over and
over and over. So this thread is
BLOCKED
Quote: EvenBobIn betting streaks, the goal is to win one unit. You bet till you lose.
I like that. Make a bet, if it wins you met your goal and stop. If you lose, than you stop betting per your "You bet till you lose" rule
Quote: EvenBobBet against the streak and lose and you have to use a progression.
That would violate the rule I quoted above, "You bet till you lose". And even violating that rule, the problem isn't betting based on the streak, the problem is using the progression. Maybe you "have" to use a progression, but I don't. And I haven't ever done so
Quote: EvenBobGet it? Got it? This is a first, I'm going block my own thread because I can't keep answering the same questions over and over and over.
Of course the question asking you describe your method to win at roulette went unanswered
Quote: TomG
That would violate the rule I quoted above, "You bet till you lose".
I misspoke. You bet till you win one
unit or the streak ends. Just hope it
ends before the progression gets
too deep.
Now it's blocked.
How is that any different than betting randomly or against a streak and walking away after losing/winning once?
Your "method" has nothing to do with streaks; you are simply using streaks as a decision device and the REAL method is to walk away after a loss or win of one unit. You can bet against the streaks or totally randomly or completely blindfolded and still do that.
You can just as easily say, "My method is to wait for three reds, two blacks, and one red, then I bet black, but walk away after winning or losing one unit."
Or, "My method is to bet red, black, red, black, red, black, etc. but walk away after winning or losing one unit."
Really the equivalent bets, for the 50/50 bets are:
Bet with the streak: bet the same as the result of the last bet until you lose.
Bet against the streak: bet the opposite as the result of the last bet until you lose.
First of all, I'd say that "streaks" are meaningless for truly random events like roulette and craps, where each event is completely independent from the prior one, and each event could come up with any possible result.
But in something like Baccarat, the cards are set in the shoe, and whatever happens in the next hand is fixed and may not change. Here is a shoe I recently played,
the first part of the shoe is random, no way to predict or win there. Second part is a chop, player / bank / player / bank 8 times with only one deviation, easy to follow. The streak at that point is a chop.
After that, unless you were asleep, the streak is simply to bet on one side until it runs out, then bet on the other side until it runs out, a Baccarat player's ideal shoe, I cleaned up on this one. But not everyone playing at this table cleaned up, the amateurs were betting against each other. During each streak your worst possible result per row was to break even, your best possible result, to win 11/12, simply by following the streaks.
As far as predictive value, some players would hesitate or even switch after two players, as player was going only two for a while, or hesitate or switch after three banks, as bank was going only three for while. I generally ignore those sorts of signals, I just stay on each run (each "streak") until it switches. On some shoes, predictive value is uncanny, on others, there is little or none.
Basically, to win at Baccarat you play hoping that your shoe will be something like this. As far as pressing into the streaks, I just do that always, and if the streak happens I win a gang, if the streak does not happen, at worst I lose 2/3 hands. As long as one or more long streaks come into the shoe, I win over all, and in the case of this shoe, I won A LOT.
So, any recognizable pattern may be a streak.
Quote: MDawgYesterday we had this Baccarat shoe where except for one time near the end, where player went three times in a row, neither Bank nor Player went past two the entire shoe. I cut the shoe. I was thinking, well this s*cks, no runs, but about a third of a way into the shoe this Chinese guy came in and started betting ten thousand on the opposing side every time player or bank would run two. He was CLEANING UP. It took a bit for the rest of us to get it, but we eventually got on board.
So, any recognizable pattern may be a streak.
Quote: EvenBobIn roulette ....
You can make up more even
chance bets using the streets.
With O/E, R/B/. H/L, and two
made up of streets, that makes
five streams to follow and there
is always a streak going on in
one of them.
??? what are his 5 even money streams ???
I understand his 1st three are; odd/even, red/black, & hi/low, but what are 2 others?
STREAKS exist in the eye of the beholder, never in the dice, wheel or little white ball.
The casino knows this.
That is why there are annunciator panels at roulette and baccarat, to re-inforce in the player's mind the concept of streaks. That is what the casino wants: players who believe. Players with hope. Players who think they can discern a pattern.
You missed a few words: Suckers, Marks, LosersQuote: FleaStiffTHE CASINO BETS ON STREAKS ALL THE TIME!
STREAKS exist in the eye of the beholder, never in the dice, wheel or little white ball.
The casino knows this.
That is why there are annunciator panels at roulette and baccarat, to re-inforce in the player's mind the concept of streaks. That is what the casino wants: players who believe. Players with hope. Players who think they can discern a pattern.
This is why casinos LOVE roulette. There's always some sort of streak going on: Red/black, High/low, Odd/even, Column, Dozen. Fools will always see and seize these streaks.
Quote: OnceDearYou missed a few words: Suckers, Marks, Losers
This is why casinos LOVE roulette. There's always some sort of streak going on: Red/black, High/low, Odd/even, Column, Dozen. Fools will always see and seize these streaks.
If I was one of the highly successful steak players that post here, I'd be insulted.
OK I'll rephrase that:-Quote: billryanIf I was one of the highly successful steak players that post here, I'd be insulted.
Fools and self proclaimed highly successful streak players will always see and seize these streaks. $:o)
However, anecdotes abound concerning emotional investments in streaks. Emotional investment is not rational. Control of one's own reactions to one's emotional investments is a useful skill. Rules of decision which support such skills are not without value. Mathematics is not the correct yardstick with which to measure skills of self-control.
For example, if I were to flip a coin 3 times and get 3 heads, would you think the result strange? Probably not. Now, suppose I flipped a coin 100 times and got 100 heads. Would you think that result was strange? Probably yes, and you'd likely consider the coin to be rigged. But suppose you were completely satisfied as to the fairness of the coin. How many heads in a row can you see before you conclude something weird is going on? 10 heads? 25? 40?
At some point we humans break down. We think that although something is mathematically possible, it just can't happen that way in real life. After 10, or 25, or 40 heads, the next result MUST be tails. Our minds feel that small samples must reflect large samples but, of course, they don't. Flip a coin 1 million times and you'll get an orderly result of approximately 50/50. Flip it 10 or 100 times and who knows? It's chaos.
"Hope springs eternal" so the saying goes and it seems to be a mantra for humanity. If you're having a bad run in life, if you didn't get that promotion, if your car breaks down, if your kid gets sick, we tend to take solace in the fact our luck is due to change for the better. But nothing is "due" and things can always get worse (a letter says the IRS wants to audit you, your doctor is concerned about that splotch on your skin). But what if things are going great? You got that promotion, your family is healthy and all your bills are paid. Suddenly, we tend to think of this state as normal, that the good times/winning streak can, should and will continue ... forever.
The writer (who specializes in human behavior and decision making in particular) decides to test her ideas out by entering a poker tournament. Confronted with stress and pressure, she knew how her mind would go wrong but, with her education, she also knew precisely what to do to counter it. She practiced several weeks for the tourney including with a poker expert and, although she obviously considered herself a novice, was good to go.
And she started off well. For the first few hours her stack grew. A voice in her head told her she was pretty good at this, that she might reach the final table and make her teacher proud. Then she got pocket jacks and bet big. With an ace and king showing on the flop, the Ivy League educated part of her brain screamed she was being overconfident. The part of her brain actually playing the game, however, didn't listen. After all, she hadn't won for the last several hands and she was due. She had pocket jacks for God's sake!
She lost half her stack. Then she chased her losses. Then ... well, you know how this story ends. So much for the Ivy League.
The interesting part of the article is when she talks to a video game designer who also loves to play poker. Although he considers poker bad game design according to modern-day conceptions of how video games are designed, he actually thinks it’s a better game design because it's so brutally honest about probability. Poker teaches that you aren't due for anything: good cards, good health, money, love ... nothing.
But what does he mean by "modern-day conceptions" for video games? To answer this, you have to go back to the question of, "Is it strange if you flip 3 heads in a row on a fair coin?"
Quote: Frank LantzIn video games where there are random events — things like dice rolls — they often skew the randomness so that it corresponds more closely to people’s incorrect intuition. If you flip heads twice in a row, you’re less likely to flip heads the third time. We know this isn’t actually true, but it feels like it should be true, because we have this weird intuition about large numbers and how randomness works. The resulting games actually accommodate that wrongness so that people don’t feel like the setup is “rigged” or “unfair.” So they actually make it so that you’re less likely to flip heads the third time. They jigger the probabilities.
In other words, if the designers don't cheat in the player's favor, the players will think that they're being cheated. What does that say about the human mind?
Full Story at FiveThirtyEight
Quote: MDawgBut in something like Baccarat, the cards are set in the shoe, and whatever happens in the next hand is fixed and may not change. Here is a shoe I recently played,
I respectfully disagree. Baccarat is just as random as a coin flip. Forget the technicalities of banker having a very slightly higher chance than player being dealt.
Do you somehow think that you would be able to predict a coin flip better if someone were to flip a coin 50 times, record it, then you had to guess heads or tails VS. you having to guess heads or tails before each flip? To me it's all the same unless you're psychic or something, so you can read the information that was written down or connect to it somehow.
Cards that were already used from the deck only affect the results so insignificantly, that it's still like a coin flip.
Quote: Ron44What determines when you start to bet on a streak and when to stop betting on the streak because it switches? What betting sequence do you recommend for pressing into a streak? Thanks a lot. I am trying to learn so that I can start winning at baccarat or at least limit my losses.
Thre are too many factors to give a simple solution. What is the game? Is the dealer a blond? Is he or she left-handed? Now we have to plug social distancing into the equation.
I , myself, use a modified Oscars' Grind, with a twist in such situations.
Not until July 29 when his current 4 month suspension ends.Quote: Ron44Does MDawg still post on this forum?
Quote: OnceDearNot until July 29 when his current 4 month suspension ends.
With declining active membership, you are assuming this site is still functional.
