kubikulann
Joined: Jun 28, 2011
• Posts: 905
September 16th, 2019 at 4:40:01 AM permalink

Were they such idiots that they couldn’t see what our beloved Wizard teaches us at the front of this forum: «betting systems are worthless» ?

I don’t think so. d’Alembert was one of the leading mathematical minds of his time. He contributed to the solution of Bernoulli’s St-Petersbourg paradox, which can be seen as a variation of the ‘doubling’ martingale.

OK, I didn’t research it. Just my free thinking process. But why did such an outstanding connoisseur of the laws of probability produce a well-known betting system and incur the late wrathful condemnation of the Wizard of Odds (and all the sane players out here)?

My personal hypothetical explanation is the following.
What Wiz and others (and I) condemn is the idea that a betting system (understand: a bet size and bankroll management based on previous wins and losses) can transform a negative EV game into a positive EV experience. That is mathematically impossible.

But I’m convinced people like d’Alembert and other smart proponents of systems to the marquises of their time, did not intend to create a +EV situation. If you look into these systems, what they actually do is define rules for stopping a gambling session.

Marquises were not playing for winning. They were just asking for a thrill, a method to follow that would guarantee a pleasurably long evening around the tables.
So what d’Al and others were proposing is a history -dependent strategy that signaled when it was time to stop losing (or winning). It also made the game more interesting than just flat-betting.

What do you think?
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 22434
September 16th, 2019 at 5:50:33 AM permalink
Quote: kubikulann

They were just asking for a thrill, a method to follow that would guarantee a pleasurably long evening around the tables.

If you want a long time at the tables with minimal risk, then flat bet.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
• Posts: 6763
September 16th, 2019 at 6:00:07 AM permalink
I think players have always been greedy and have always been looking for a way to win big. It's not just the environment, since they could be in the room and not wager; it's the rush of risk and reward.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
• Posts: 14484
September 16th, 2019 at 6:32:15 AM permalink
Quote: kubikulann

Were they such idiots

No. Very few people with their names in history books were idiots and likewise probably few were the geniuses we now consider them.
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
• Posts: 3158
Thanks for this post from:
September 16th, 2019 at 6:41:25 AM permalink
d'Alembert was a genius but he made a mistake that became famous

"While he made great strides in mathematics and physics, d'Alembert is also famously known for incorrectly arguing in Croix ou Pile that the probability of a coin landing heads increased for every time that it came up tails. "

he wasn't proposing a gambling system - he was speculating about probability

a detailed explanation of his misstep is documented in the 2 links:

https://www.oreilly.com/library/view/classic-problems-of/9781118314333/chapter12.html

https://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/dAlembert.shtml
𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘵: 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳 𝘭𝘰𝘶𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵............. ᴍᴀʀᴋ ᴛᴡᴀɪɴ
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
• Posts: 14484
Thanks for this post from:
September 16th, 2019 at 6:42:59 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

If you want a long time at the tables with minimal risk, then flat bet.

Yes, but this is rather boring and definitely not what a gentleman did when life consisted of gaming parties. What would you think of someone who showed up at a Spring Fling but told no jokes, played no trivia, toasted no one, but merely flat bet all night long?
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
• Posts: 1599
September 16th, 2019 at 6:44:46 AM permalink
If it's possible to get 50 bets ahead, the best way to do it is to get as far ahead with it as possible, then lower my bets. If I think getting 100 bets ahead is likely, I could stretch that out. A lower HA game will make it more likely to get further ahead, and a 1.5% HA might be the max I should tolerate.
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
• Posts: 3158
Thanks for this post from:
September 16th, 2019 at 6:48:30 AM permalink
In Edward Thorp's classic "Beat the Dealer" he recommends the martingale but not as a winning system but to impress a hot babe

tell her you've got a sure winner and do a 5 step marty (if necessary) on Player at baccarat and you are very likely to win a hand in one of the steps and if she's not an experienced, knowledgeable gambler she might be impressed

𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘵: 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳 𝘭𝘰𝘶𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵............. ᴍᴀʀᴋ ᴛᴡᴀɪɴ
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 18628
Thanks for this post from:
September 16th, 2019 at 7:39:11 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

In Edward Thorp's classic "Beat the Dealer" he recommends the martingale but not as a winning system but to impress a hot babe

tell her you've got a sure winner and do a 5 step marty (if necessary) on Player at baccarat and you are very likely to win a hand in one of the steps and if she's not an experienced, knowledgeable gambler she might be impressed

I was sent \$150 match-play offer and some comps recently.
I just happened to walk up to a table with three attractive young women who are playing nickels. Of course, they have to stop the game and called The Pit Boss over ask for my card and whatnot. Now all the attention is on me and what I'm doing. Now that we got that all over with, I pop down the \$150 and promptly receive a blackjack. A little excitement ensues among the ladies and some whispers, "how did he know".

+\$450, of course, I'm chill, because I'm just that good 😉
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012