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SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 108
  • Posts: 6942
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IndyJeffrey
January 7th, 2020 at 1:36:15 PM permalink
Es, I have been a fan of your posts. You seem refreshingly honest and humble, and hopefully willing to learn. Read the Wizards section on "why no betting system can work". This applies to all -EV BETS.

Then ask yourself, are my bets -EV or+ EV? Not, are my bets more likely to win or lose? I think that is where you get fooled. All of your bets were more likely to win than lose, but each individual bet was a bad bet. If you were just betting even money events (NFL lines, Over/Unders, NBA lines, over/Unders, etc., it would have been clearer to you why bookies win and players lose, THE VIG.
But it is hard for us to see that laying 320 to win 100 on a given game is a bad bet, while if you magically could have laid 280 to win 100 it would have been a good bet.
If you find some formula that can take advantage of bad lines, then your bets would be + EV. But I don't think you are even trying to do that.
Read the lottery betting thread. Wizard and ksds have identified lines which often overestimate the chances of someone winning the lottery for a given drawing. Their bets are +EV. Once establishing that you actually are making + EV bets, they use Kelly formula to size their bets. It's a really interesting thread.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 146
  • Posts: 18249
January 7th, 2020 at 5:05:06 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

You seem refreshingly honest and humble, and hopefully willing to learn.
.

I was thinking the same thing before.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
es330td
es330td
Joined: Mar 19, 2019
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 151
August 26th, 2020 at 6:40:05 PM permalink
When I put my strategy together I based it upon baseball history. I thought that I could apply that to basketball, which clearly did not work. Baseball favors heavy favorites at home much more than basketball.

My plan in “tweaking” my system was to return to betting only on baseball. Unfortunately, COVID has completely changed that, and sports in general. Now that BLM and social justice has taken over sports I no longer feel that sports are a pure competition. There is a good chance I will simply quit this as no opportunities to bet will present themselves.

If this is the case, I will post my methodology and see what people think.

To those of you that respected my attempts to be honest, thank you.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 72
  • Posts: 6390
August 26th, 2020 at 7:27:22 PM permalink
Is your system not adaptable? Baseball is easy to handicap. Just bet all of the two touchdown underdogs.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
es330td
es330td
Joined: Mar 19, 2019
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 151
August 27th, 2020 at 6:43:02 AM permalink
I have decided to end this. I will post my strategy in a separate thread, including the python source code for the program I used to test it. I will try to do that this weekend.

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