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Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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January 7th, 2020 at 1:36:15 PM permalink
Es, I have been a fan of your posts. You seem refreshingly honest and humble, and hopefully willing to learn. Read the Wizards section on "why no betting system can work". This applies to all -EV BETS.

Then ask yourself, are my bets -EV or+ EV? Not, are my bets more likely to win or lose? I think that is where you get fooled. All of your bets were more likely to win than lose, but each individual bet was a bad bet. If you were just betting even money events (NFL lines, Over/Unders, NBA lines, over/Unders, etc., it would have been clearer to you why bookies win and players lose, THE VIG.
But it is hard for us to see that laying 320 to win 100 on a given game is a bad bet, while if you magically could have laid 280 to win 100 it would have been a good bet.
If you find some formula that can take advantage of bad lines, then your bets would be + EV. But I don't think you are even trying to do that.
Read the lottery betting thread. Wizard and ksds have identified lines which often overestimate the chances of someone winning the lottery for a given drawing. Their bets are +EV. Once establishing that you actually are making + EV bets, they use Kelly formula to size their bets. It's a really interesting thread.
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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January 7th, 2020 at 5:05:06 PM permalink

You seem refreshingly honest and humble, and hopefully willing to learn.

I was thinking the same thing before.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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