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michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
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December 29th, 2019 at 9:28:42 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I don't much about RAS, however, if a multitude of people are signed up and only a few people can get down action before the line moves to where a large majority of the people no longer have an advantage it seems a little scammy to me.



The line they say to bet it at is available , you just have to get your bet in very quickly.
CASGamble2
CASGamble2
Joined: Dec 30, 2019
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December 30th, 2019 at 4:51:46 AM permalink
Have found some myself that have helped for sure.
es330td
es330td
Joined: Mar 19, 2019
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Thanks for this post from:
IndyJeffrey
January 6th, 2020 at 3:25:59 PM permalink
Just letting everyone know that despite my losses I have not disappeared. I am looking at my process and methodology and deciding if I need to make any changes.

To those ready to say “I told you so” I said from the beginning that I know systems should not work. If I fail when the money is trivial, I save myself real losses if I put a bankroll behind it. SportsPlays numbers were not faked, I can screenshot a 216-86-3 record over the last calendar year. (They only show the past year’s record.) Maybe I got lucky picking 71% winners. Maybe I got unlucky with this recent losing streak. Maybe the free bonus money skewed the results. As posted previously, I was testing publicly to ensure I wasn’t in some way influencing the process.

I will be back. As promised I will see this to the end.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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January 6th, 2020 at 3:57:59 PM permalink
Quote: es330td

I am looking at my process and methodology and deciding if I need to make any changes.

And therein lies the rub. Just keep tweaking and testing until you just happened to go on a lucky run and now you think you have something again. You'll feel the need to test that, but eventually that will fail too.
Rinse and repeat.

Meanwhile you could be using that time on legitimate methods that actually work.

Do yourself a favor, don't get stuck on these pipe dreams, it's a slippery slope.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
  • Threads: 39
  • Posts: 3564
January 6th, 2020 at 4:02:35 PM permalink
Quote: es330td



As promised I will see this to the end.



You already did.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2112
January 6th, 2020 at 4:17:12 PM permalink
Quote: es330td

Maybe I got lucky picking 71% winners.



Looking over your bet history documented on this thread, it looks like the average odds you layed on a game was around -275.

A $100/game bettor picking 71% winners would be down $875. So I wouldn’t say picking 71% was lucky at the juice you were laying.

I think the problem is, if you’re sticking to a heavy juice chase, there’s no tweaking you can do that’s going to help you avoid the 4 straight losing bets that it takes to wipe you out.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux 
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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January 6th, 2020 at 4:32:30 PM permalink
Whatever you do, take out the marty/chase piece. That's no good.
IndyJeffrey
IndyJeffrey
Joined: Feb 10, 2013
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January 6th, 2020 at 7:35:05 PM permalink
So...can wagering on sports be profitable over the long run? Let's assume micro-bets so we take the 'you win too much, so we're banning you' out of the equation. Thoughts?
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 108
  • Posts: 7224
January 7th, 2020 at 4:53:12 AM permalink
Quote: IndyJeffrey

So...can wagering on sports be profitable over the long run? Let's assume micro-bets so we take the 'you win too much, so we're banning you' out of the equation. Thoughts?



In theory of course! Remember, the books establish a line hoping to get half the money on each side. NOT to make the outcome of the event an even bet.
The problem is do you have enough information and ability to determine when a line gives value OVER the vig on one side? Supposedly there are those that do have that skill.
If you are just a guy who watches a lot of sports and 'is sure' team x will beat team y because of blah blah blah, you will likely fail.
If you are a guy who noticed that over the last 1000 NFL games where the second wide receiver was injured and didn't play that team only covered 45% of the time, you may have the ability.
vegas
vegas
Joined: Apr 27, 2012
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 474
January 7th, 2020 at 10:17:58 AM permalink
Quote: es330td

Just letting everyone know that despite my losses I have not disappeared. I am looking at my process and methodology and deciding if I need to make any changes.

To those ready to say “I told you so” I said from the beginning that I know systems should not work. If I fail when the money is trivial, I save myself real losses if I put a bankroll behind it. SportsPlays numbers were not faked, I can screenshot a 216-86-3 record over the last calendar year. (They only show the past year’s record.) Maybe I got lucky picking 71% winners. Maybe I got unlucky with this recent losing streak. Maybe the free bonus money skewed the results. As posted previously, I was testing publicly to ensure I wasn’t in some way influencing the process.

I will be back. As promised I will see this to the end.




I don't think you will change anything. The way you bet now is the way you will continue to do so. I believe in your mind you still feel the big favourites are the way to go. It worked on paper so it will work again or so you think. I will be interested in seeing if you do in fact change things up, but I don't think so. Good luck in your future bets.
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong

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