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vegas
vegas
Joined: Apr 27, 2012
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September 14th, 2019 at 5:40:13 AM permalink
Quote: prozema

I thought he was just betting professional sports.



You could be right. Even if he was betting college I think those odds would be a bit much.
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
UP84
UP84
Joined: May 22, 2012
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September 14th, 2019 at 7:58:53 AM permalink
Quote: es330td

Balance: $34.24
Running Total: +0.36

Sport: MLB
Game: Oakland @ Houston 9/12/19
Pick: Houston - 259
Wager: $0.89


The accounting is a little off here. You shortchanged yourself. It should be:

Balance: $34.28
Running Total: +0.66

Quote: es330td

Last Result: ($0.89)
Balance: $33.35
Running Total: ($.57)
Record: 2-2

No wager 9/13/2019


The .34 difference (.04 in the Balance and 0.30 in the Running Total) was carried over to your most recent tally, which should be:

Last Result ($0.89)
Balance: $34.28 -.0.89 = $33.69
Running Total: 0.66 - 0.89 = ($0.23)
Record: 3-2

This agrees with 7craps totals (although I think the 9/9 bet of 0.96 on NO-289 might have paid 0.33 instead of 0.34. Not sure)
es330td
es330td
Joined: Mar 19, 2019
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September 15th, 2019 at 5:14:26 AM permalink
No wagers fit my requirements today. No action.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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September 15th, 2019 at 7:08:12 AM permalink
As far as MS claims..... She alleged that she found in game lines that were + EV. That she might lay 50-1 when fair odds were 80-1. It is not inconceivable that she was telling the truth, and also certainly possible she was not being honest.

As far as Georgis laying 146-1 yesterday. I'd say that was + EV. I would have lost a bridge jumper on Manchester City versus Norwich. MC had a long win streak against teams recently promoted to EPL. Not any more....
es330td
es330td
Joined: Mar 19, 2019
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September 15th, 2019 at 10:21:26 AM permalink
Quote: prozema

I thought he was just betting professional sports.



I am not going anywhere near college sports, especially college football. Too high a chance of a Michigan- Appalacian State.
es330td
es330td
Joined: Mar 19, 2019
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September 15th, 2019 at 10:33:16 AM permalink
Thanks for catching my math error. I use a spreadsheet to track my wager progression and hadnít been tracking the running total. I will add a sheet.

Overlooked a candidate:

Last Result ($0.89)
Balance: $34.28 -.0.89 = $33.69
Running Total: 0.66 - 0.89 = ($0.23)
Record: 3-2

Sport: MLB
Game: Pirates @ Cubs 9/15/19
Pick: Cubs-254
Wager: $2.09

I also add I donít like wagering MLB towards the end of the regular season. Picks in MLB are much more dependable when the season is competitive.
vegas
vegas
Joined: Apr 27, 2012
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September 15th, 2019 at 1:03:19 PM permalink
It really does look like marty betting. Your wagers go up to cover your previous loss. Usually works for awhile
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
es330td
es330td
Joined: Mar 19, 2019
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September 15th, 2019 at 4:38:16 PM permalink
In any system wagers have to increase to cover losses. That is a given. Martingale works if a person has an unlimited bankroll and a casino will accept a big enough wager.

While this is not an official Wizard of Odds system challenge, in my testing I followed his conditions and could not get the strategy to break. As I have said in previous posts, I have devised a methodology that combines game selection, bet sizing and bankroll management. That is what I am testing.
kubikulann
kubikulann
Joined: Jun 28, 2011
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September 16th, 2019 at 2:42:15 AM permalink
Quote: es330td

<Ö> Martingale works if a person has an unlimited bankroll and a casino will accept a big enough wager.

Wrong.

First off, infinity does not exist in the concrete world. Neither unlimited bankroll, nor infinite time.
Hence, saying « this proposition is valid iff that impossible condition is true » is equivalent to saying « this proposition is false ». That is the basis of an argument ab absurdo.

But even then... Spending too long a time wagering too big amounts just to win ONE unit is not what I would call « working ». Your time has more value than that one unit, and the amounts have an opportunity cost much larger also.
And whatís the utility of winning one unit when you have infinite bankroll? One divided by infinity is zero.
Last edited by: kubikulann on Sep 16, 2019
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
prozema
prozema
Joined: Oct 24, 2016
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Thanks for this post from:
beachbumbabs
September 16th, 2019 at 4:38:18 AM permalink
Now we will have the infinity police and the random police here. That's the equivalent of having 4 stars on grand theft auto. Just turn yourself in. There is no escaping now.
"A little luck never hurt any fisherman, that's all I know." - Sig Hansen

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