Strategy for Baccarat Tournament?

Right I mean I knew #3 was going to go all in, and right after I presented the secret wager I even remarked that the only way was going to beat me (surpass my chip total) was with a blackjack, but I should have taken that into the account with my bet, not just a comment.

It was interesting though the way things happened. Not only (1) did #3 get a blackjack, but (2) #2 got a double down (on a 12!), (3) survived the hit, and (4) there was a dealer bust. All four of those things had to happen (combined with my improper 1000 versus 6500 bet) for me to lose out on the #1 or #2 position.

I would have bet $20K in hopes of getting 4 hands to double down on. /s

I won another Baccarat tournament - so that makes two in the past year or so.

On this one, I placed a couple of large bets early on on hands that I knew no one would mirror, which happened to hit, and got comfortably ahead. From there, I more or less followed the Wizard suggested strategy of mirroring the bets of my enemies, because I knew that then, they could not touch me win or lose, including because my bankroll was so far ahead. I cruised into the winning spot with well over double the next runner up player's chip stack for the final secret bet hand.

At a recent winner takes all million dollar Blackjack tournament (free entry for high rollers), there was a Mulligan rule. For $500. you may have withdrawn your 2nd or 3rd dealt card, and get a replacement. This option was available up to twice per round. In the early rounds of these tournaments, about a third of the people at the table advance, then in higher rounds, only 1 person advances. There are typically 5 or 6 players participating in each round.

I don't put up a penny in any of these tournaments (not to buy extra chips, not to rebuy into the next round, not for anything), so I never did a Mulligan, but I did see people doing it occasionally.

In tournament play, especially when you're behind, there might be situations where you want to make aggressive bets to catch up or surpass opponents. Betting a significant portion of your stack on a high-payout bet, like a tie, can be a calculated risk to gain an early advantage. However, this strategy carries a high risk of losing your stack quickly.

Congratulations on receiving an invitation to a $100K Baccarat invitational tournament! That's quite an achievement.

Indeed, luck plays a significant role in Baccarat tournaments, especially since each player's performance is influenced by the random distribution of cards. But, there are some strategic considerations you can keep in mind to maximize your chances of success.

Firstly, it's essential to understand that Baccarat tournaments often feature a unique set of rules compared to regular Baccarat games. These variations can include altered payout structures, modified gameplay mechanics, and different betting limits. Familiarizing yourself with the specific rules of the tournament you're entering is crucial to making informed decisions.

Secondly, managing your bankroll effectively is critical. Since luck plays a significant role, it's important to pace yourself and avoid reckless betting. Set a budget for yourself and stick to it, rather than trying to win big early on and risking elimination due to running out of chips.

Thirdly, pay attention to the dynamics of the tournament. Observe how other players are performing, identify potential weaknesses in their strategies, and adjust your own approach accordingly. For instance, if you notice a player consistently placing large bets on a particular side, you might want to focus on the opposite side to increase your chances of winning.

Fourthly, consider adopting a contrarian strategy. In Baccarat, the banker's hand has a slight advantage over the player's hand in terms of probability. Therefore, when everyone else is betting on the banker, you could consider placing a larger bet on the player's hand to gain an edge. If most players are betting on the player's hand, you might want to shift your focus to the banker's hand.

Lastly, stay focused and alert throughout the tournament. Fatigue and emotions can cloud your judgment, leading to impulsive decisions that can cost you dearly. Take breaks when needed, and maintain a clear head to optimize your performance.

Regarding your question about calculating the odds of winning, it's certainly possible to do so using probability theory and statistical analysis. But, keep in mind that the outcome of each hand is independent, meaning past results won't influence future outcomes. With a large number of players, like the hundred you mentioned, the variance increases significantly, making accurate predictions even harder.

To give you an idea of the odds, let's simplify the calculation for a single hand with two players. Assuming a 50-50 chance of winning for each player, the probability of winning a single hand is 0.5. To calculate the probability of winning a tournament with n players, you would use the formula:

(1/n) \* (1 - (1/n))^(n-1)

This formula calculates the likelihood of winning a single hand against n-1 opponents, considering each player has a 50% chance of winning. Plugging in values for n, we get:

* For n = 50 (as per your example): 0.0276 (or approximately 2.76%)
* For n = 100 (as per your updated example): 0.0135 (or approximately 1.35%)

Keep in mind that these calculations oversimplify the situation, as they assume every player has an equal chance of winning and ignores factors like varying skill levels, betting patterns, and luck. Nonetheless, they offer a rough estimate of the difficulty involved in winning a Baccarat tournament with a large number of participants.

Remember, a Baccarat tournament is a combination of skill, luck, and psychology. While you cannot control luck, you can refine your skills and mental preparation to improve your overall performance. Best of luck in your upcoming tournament!

Chat gpt

Quote: Hunterhill

Chat gpt
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I agree. These AI posts are getting very good. I won't mention how they reveal themselves, but they do.

Quote: MDawg

At a recent winner takes all million dollar Blackjack tournament (free entry for high rollers), there was a Mulligan rule. For $500. you may have withdrawn your 2nd or 3rd dealt card, and get a replacement. This option was available up to twice per round. In the early rounds of these tournaments, about a third of the people at the table advance, then in higher rounds, only 1 person advances. There are typically 5 or 6 players participating in each round.

I don't put up a penny in any of these tournaments (not to buy extra chips, not to rebuy into the next round, not for anything), so I never did a Mulligan, but I did see people doing it occasionally.

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Classic. I remember that night well…I had to stand firm on the $10k marker. Nicky’s strategy was to keep wins and not pay losses. He’d have lost $50k and never paid it. What are you gonna do…muscle Nicky ?

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: Hunterhill

Chat gpt
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I agree. These AI posts are getting very good. I won't mention how they reveal themselves, but they do.
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They are an improvement over the usual gibberish.

Quote: billryan

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: Hunterhill

Chat gpt
link to original post

I agree. These AI posts are getting very good. I won't mention how they reveal themselves, but they do.
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They are an improvement over the usual gibberish.
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One of the recent AI bots read about this great way of making enough money to pay his bills. He signed up with a virtual casino and bought in with his crypto bankroll and was last seen sleeping in the virtual doorway of an online store, with a virtual coffee cup with the words : 'Thank you' written on with a virtual sharpie.

Quote: Ace2

Classic. I remember that night well…I had to stand firm on the $10k marker. Nicky’s strategy was to keep wins and not pay losses. He’d have lost $50k and never paid it. What are you gonna do…muscle Nicky ?
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If Nicky had taken out a marker, and lost, he would not have paid it back, obviously.

But in this instance, he had played with his own money ("out of his own kick"), ten grand, and lost it.

He's over at the 21 table
with his nose wide open.

He took money out of his own kick.
His nose is open for about 10,000.

and now you okayed the little guy for ten to get him even.

Obviously, he lost the ten before he started taking repeated mulligans on draws.

he had
a foolproof scheme, all right.

It wasn't very scientific,
but it worked.

When he won, he collected;

when he lost, he told the bookies
to go f themselves.

What doesn't make a lot of sense, is why he wouldn't just take the ten grand marker and walk right then. At that point he already was even.

I'm gonna okay you ten to get you even and that's it.

Then you gotta get out
before the cops and the newspapers are all over you.

Ten and that's it.

This implies that Nicky wanted to pay the marker back, once he was ahead ten grand and even. So, even though he was cheating, switched to "can't lose mulligan mode," he still must have felt some sense of responsibility to pay back the house's marker.

Yeah that’s the scene I was paraphrasing. At the sportsbook…

“You got that thing for me?”

“What thing. Nicky I thought you was layin’ “

“No I was takin’ it”

So many classic scenes in that movie

Agreed. Definitely one of those movies I could watch once a year and still not get tired of it.

As far as the mulligan thing, that would be awesome in actual play. Still, can you put a price on that feeling of having max bet out there, getting a hard 16 with dealer face card up, hitting because it's the right thing to do, and getting a 5?