Betting with a $500 bonus

I live in NJ where online sports betting is legal. I started betting online recently, and I have a $500 bonus to be used on one bet by Feb 13.

I have a two part question.

I came with a plan for betting tonight that guarantees me a $295 win. I would like to know my plan will work (is my math correct) and also if there is a better way to guarantee more money.

The bet I am thinking of making is on tonight's Warriors vs Pacers game.

Money line bet. Warriors -315 Pacers +245

My plan is to place two bets. Bet $930 of my own real money on the Warriors and the free $500 bonus on the Pacers.

If the Warriors win, I profit $295 and lose my bonus.

If the Pacers win, the bonus money makes me $1225 but I lose $930 that I bet on the Warriors for a total profit of $295.

Either way, I'm up $295.

Am I missing something? Does this sound like a good plan? Is there a better plan where I can be guaranteed more than $295 or make more with a slight risk?

They usually won’t let you take both sides of a game if one of the sides is a free bet.

sure they will. Then impound your account.

Quote: xray

I live in NJ where online sports betting is legal. I started betting online recently, and I have a $500 bonus to be used on one bet by Feb 13.

I have a two part question.

I came with a plan for betting tonight that guarantees me a $295 win. I would like to know my plan will work (is my math correct) and also if there is a better way to guarantee more money.

The bet I am thinking of making is on tonight's Warriors vs Pacers game.

Money line bet. Warriors -315 Pacers +245

My plan is to place two bets. Bet $930 of my own real money on the Warriors and the free $500 bonus on the Pacers.

If the Warriors win, I profit $295 and lose my bonus.

If the Pacers win, the bonus money makes me $1225 but I lose $930 that I bet on the Warriors for a total profit of $295.

Either way, I'm up $295.

Am I missing something? Does this sound like a good plan? Is there a better plan where I can be guaranteed more than $295 or make more with a slight risk?

bet the other side with someone who wants that bet and there's no vig.

Do you keep the $500 if you win? Or does it go away win or lose?

Quote: SOOPOO

Do you keep the $500 if you win? Or does it go away win or lose?

I’m sure it’s the same there but my experience is NO you do not get to keep the $500 if you win. Only the winnings.

I arb bonus bets every day and this market is not a good one to use anyway. Find one where the outsider is maybe +400. You will be able to lock in a much higher % of the bonus bet as profit. Even better if you can use different books and get better prices.

EG. One of my bets today is having a $60 bonus bet on the Knicks at +600 with one book & $316 cash bet on the Hornets with another book at -714. Guaranteed $44 profit.

No, you only keep the winnings. The bet as I showed worked out to a guaranteed profit of $295 regardless of which team won. I don't think it's against the policy to bet against your bonus with real money; I've done experiments with $5 bonuses and had no trouble. Maybe I'll take Aussie's idea and use another book for the other side of the bet and hopefully even find better odds that way.

Quote: jackmagic777

sure they will. Then impound your account.

Any examples of American based sportsbooks doing this?

Quote: xray

... Maybe I'll take Aussie's idea and use another book for the other side of the bet and hopefully even find better odds that way.

I think this is a good idea, but I also have a few questions for the OP below:

Are there any turnover requirements if the bonus bet wins, if so what are they?

Is there a maximum win/payout for the bonus bet?
(If not, for the bonus bet I would generally go for something with high single digits or greater, for example odds of at least $8.00)

Are you allowed to split the bonus into smaller amounts, for example: 5 x $100 bonus bets?


Does Betfair USA^^^ have the same/similar betting structure as Betfair Australia***?

USA^^^: "Is Betfair Legal in the USA?
The answer is yes, it's legal to place bets using Betfair in USA. June 7, 2018 was the day when Betfair USA announced that the company teams up Meadowlands Racetrack in New Jersey, and that's for online and retail sports betting..."

https://azbookmakers.com/betfair-usa

Australia***: In a "two-outcome" market, basketball for example, Betfair usually has a "game-day" RTP of 99%-100% before commission. They currently charge a commission of 5% on the profit of your bet(s) in that market (so the shorter the price of the winner, the less effect it has on your overall RTP for that bet).

Note: I am from Australia so I can't access Betfair USA, so that is why I don't know if the betting markets and commission rules are the same.

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Here is a real life example of what I got a family member to do when he was offered a bonus:

Main Rules/Conditions:
(a) $500 "free play" bonus.
(b) "can only keep the winnings"
(c) $5000 maximum win on bonus
(d) "Turnover win at least once before you can cash-out".
(e) Bonus is canceled if it is not placed by a certain date.

Match Odds:

Team A was at odds of $10 with the sports book offering the bonus.
Team B was at odds of $1.095 with Betfair Australia (or $1.10 before the 5% commission on profits)

The betting method we used is below:

(1) Pick a "two-outcome" game with a low "house edge".
(2) Bet the $500 bonus on the Team A (odds $10)
(3) Bet about $4,110 real money on Team B (odds $1.095)
(4a) If the favorite wins, then the EV for the promotion was $390.45
(4b) If the underdog wins, then the EV for the promotion was $165^*^

$165^*^: If the underdog had won, then you would have made an average of $390 minus $225 ($4500 x 5% average house edge), since you had to "Turnover win at least once before you can cash-out".


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FYI: This happened 5 plus years ago, so all I can remember about the game was that it was an NBA match and that the favorite won the game.

Hope this was helpful and good luck.

Quote: ksdjdj

I think this is a good idea, but I also have a few questions for the OP below:

Are there any turnover requirements if the bonus bet wins, if so what are they?

Are there maximum odds and/or maximum win for the bonus bet?
(If not, for the bonus bet I would generally go for something with high single digits or greater, for example odds of at least $8.00)

Are you allowed to split the bonus into smaller amounts, for example: 5 x $100 bonus bets?

I earned a $500 bet by betting $1000 on my first bet with DraftKings. I'm not sure what I needed to bet or win or what the max/min odds were, but I was free to do what I want with the $500 bonus bet, except with the limitation that it had to be placed in one bet.

I used the bonus $500 tonight. I placed the bonus $500 on the Sabres at +145.

Then I started an account with FanDuel and bet $500 with the Blue Jackets at -170.

The Sabres won. I won $775 on DraftKings and lost $500 on FanDuel for a $275 profit.

Had the Blue Jackets won, I would have won $294 with FanDuel and lost my $500 bonus from DraftKings for a $294 profit.

I did better losing on FanDuel as they had a bonus where if you lose your first bet, they will give you a $500 bonus bet, so now I can execute the same plan once again. :)

Quote: xray

...I did better losing on FanDuel as they had a bonus where if you lose your first bet, they will give you a $500 bonus bet, so now I can execute the same plan once again. :)

Good for you, glad you got another bonus.

The example/scenario I mention in my previous post will be a good way to use the bonus for, when you can't find anymore sites that will offer you a new bonus like the one you mentioned above.

Quote: xray

... but I was free to do what I want with the $500 bonus bet...

If this is true for the next bonus as well, then I would bet the bonus on one team at fairly big odds (say $8.00) and the "real money bet" on the other team at a different sportsbook in an attempt to find a lower combined house edge (again, only if you can't find anymore sites that will offer you another bonus).

Quote: xray

I... I have a $500 bonus to be used on one bet by Feb 13.

Also, sorry that I didn't read part of the OP properly and asked a "stupid question", : )
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Update (about 945 pm Pacific Time):

One reason why my method is only a "good" method is because, not hedging*** on an outcome with high odds^^^ would be the best method in the long run (it would probably be the best strategy in the case that you receive a "near unlimited number of bonuses", as well).

hedging*** See WoO below "commandment 7" for part of the reason why hedging is generally "no good" in a lot of situations.

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/ten-commandments/


high odds^^^: See hypothetical below

Note: To simplify the math in the hypothetical, the probability is equal to the reciprocal of the odds stated.

Note 2: the bonus is $500

Note 3: If the bet wins, the $500 bonus stake is not included in the players "winnings".

If given a choice of $10, $100 or $1000 odds on an outcome, I would personally pick the $1000 odds, because that is the one that maximizes the long term EV of the bonus, out of those three choices (If THEIR CHANCES are equally weighted)

Proof of why $1000 odds is best for the bonus in the above hypothetical

Odds of $10 (9/1) would be worth: $450 (500 x 9 x 10%)

Odds of $100 (99/1) would be worth: $495 (500 x 99 x 1%)

Odds of $1000 (999/1) would be worth: $499.5 (500 x 999 x 0.1%)

Therefore odds of $1000 is best, for this scenario.


IMPORTANT,. this is not how most people would bet in real life, because:
1) People may tend to prefer "Risk aversion", over "Maximizing Returns" (in other words would you rather win $400 guaranteed, or be in ONE draw to win $45,000 but only have a 1/100 chance of winning?)
2) Short or medium term RTP can vary significantly in "real life", compared to long term theoretical RTP.
3) House edge considerations.
4) The underdog may be poorly valued, for example the real chance of a bet winning with odds of $1000 may only be 0.05%.
5) No one that I know of gets an "unlimited number of sports betting bonuses".


I hope this update and hypothetical was helpful**^ explaining why "big odds are generally better" when betting a bonus like this one,

helpful**^: especially for anyone new to using bonuses for sports betting.

(The math has been checked, but the wording hasn't)

Quote: Aussie

I’m sure it’s the same there but my experience is NO you do not get to keep the $500 if you win. Only the winnings.

I arb bonus bets every day and this market is not a good one to use anyway. Find one where the outsider is maybe +400. You will be able to lock in a much higher % of the bonus bet as profit. Even better if you can use different books and get better prices. ...

After doing some spreadsheets and trial and error calculations***, I agree with the above post (if your goal is to "guarantee the same result no matter which team wins").

calculations***: see findings below:

If the combined bookmakers markets for the event are 105%: then having the bonus bet on a team that is about +350 is near the best price to "guarantee the same profit" on either team winning. For a bonus bet of $500, it will have an EV of about $301.39.

If the combined bookmakers markets for the event are 104%: then having the bonus bet on a team that is about +400 is near the best price to "guarantee the same profit" on either team winning. For a bonus bet of $500, it will have an EV of about $320.

If the combined bookmakers markets for the event are 103%: then having the bonus bet on a team that is about +480 is near the best price to "guarantee the same profit" on either team winning. For a bonus bet of $500, it will have an EV of about $341.79.

If the combined bookmakers markets for the event are 102%: then having the bonus bet on a team that is about +610 is near the best price to "guarantee the same profit" on either team winning. For a bonus bet of $500, it will have an EV of about $368.58.


If you can't find the prices above to have the bonus bet on, then It will generally be better to take something at slightly less odds than taking slightly more odds.
For example in the "102% market" scenario: if your two choices were to have the bonus on a +620 underdog or a +600 underdog, then the +600 would be the better choice by about $0.01 in EV.

If you must take something well away from the "near best odds", then it is generally better to take something at the higher odds than something at the lower odds for the bonus bet.
For example in the "102% market" scenario: if your two choices were to have the bonus on a +1010 underdog or a +210 underdog, then the +1010 would be the better choice by about $36.25 in EV.

Someone better at explaining things than me can probably tell you the reason why these two examples "contradict" each other.
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Update:

In a previous post where I give a "real life example" and the market was about 101.32%: the best odds for the bonus would have been about +770, the maximum EV of that bonus would have been about $391.55, instead of the $390.45 for the odds that I took (so I was about $1.1 "worse off" using the bonus bet on a $10 (+900) underdog)

I'm new at this, so although I tried, I'm not following all of the math above.

I'm thinking of using my second $500 bonus bet tonight on the following bet. If there's a better bet someone knows of, please let me know.

My $500 bonus bet is from FanDuel. I am going to bet real money on the opposing team with DraftKings. Teams are Grizzlies and Hornets.

I'm thinking of putting the bonus $500 on the Grizzlies at +250. Then $950 on the Hornets at -305.

If the Hornets win, I win $311.

If the Grizzles win, I profit $1,250 on that bet and after subtracting the $950 bet on the Hornets, my net profit is $300.

I'm guaranteed at least $300 regardless of who wins.

Any better options?

That is the best one on that day for the NBA (I haven't looked at anything else).

But, if you could find a game with odds of +400 on FanDuel (bonus), and about -525 at another sportsbook (real money), you would lock in a guaranteed profit of $320. That is only about $12 better (on average) than the game you picked (so, not a big difference).


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