xray
xray
Joined: Jan 28, 2019
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 4
January 28th, 2019 at 11:59:43 AM permalink
I live in NJ where online sports betting is legal. I started betting online recently, and I have a $500 bonus to be used on one bet by Feb 13.

I have a two part question.

I came with a plan for betting tonight that guarantees me a $295 win. I would like to know my plan will work (is my math correct) and also if there is a better way to guarantee more money.

The bet I am thinking of making is on tonight's Warriors vs Pacers game.

Money line bet. Warriors -315 Pacers +245

My plan is to place two bets. Bet $930 of my own real money on the Warriors and the free $500 bonus on the Pacers.

If the Warriors win, I profit $295 and lose my bonus.

If the Pacers win, the bonus money makes me $1225 but I lose $930 that I bet on the Warriors for a total profit of $295.

Either way, I'm up $295.

Am I missing something? Does this sound like a good plan? Is there a better plan where I can be guaranteed more than $295 or make more with a slight risk?
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 2100
Thanks for this post from:
Chuckleberry
January 28th, 2019 at 12:26:41 PM permalink
They usually wonít let you take both sides of a game if one of the sides is a free bet.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
jackmagic777
jackmagic777
Joined: Jan 11, 2019
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 161
January 28th, 2019 at 12:31:28 PM permalink
sure they will. Then impound your account.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 148
  • Posts: 18652
January 28th, 2019 at 12:44:01 PM permalink
Quote: xray

I live in NJ where online sports betting is legal. I started betting online recently, and I have a $500 bonus to be used on one bet by Feb 13.

I have a two part question.

I came with a plan for betting tonight that guarantees me a $295 win. I would like to know my plan will work (is my math correct) and also if there is a better way to guarantee more money.

The bet I am thinking of making is on tonight's Warriors vs Pacers game.

Money line bet. Warriors -315 Pacers +245

My plan is to place two bets. Bet $930 of my own real money on the Warriors and the free $500 bonus on the Pacers.

If the Warriors win, I profit $295 and lose my bonus.

If the Pacers win, the bonus money makes me $1225 but I lose $930 that I bet on the Warriors for a total profit of $295.

Either way, I'm up $295.

Am I missing something? Does this sound like a good plan? Is there a better plan where I can be guaranteed more than $295 or make more with a slight risk?

bet the other side with someone who wants that bet and there's no vig.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 108
  • Posts: 7216
January 28th, 2019 at 3:35:57 PM permalink
Do you keep the $500 if you win? Or does it go away win or lose?
Aussie
Aussie
Joined: Dec 29, 2009
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 411
January 28th, 2019 at 5:04:31 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Do you keep the $500 if you win? Or does it go away win or lose?





Iím sure itís the same there but my experience is NO you do not get to keep the $500 if you win. Only the winnings.

I arb bonus bets every day and this market is not a good one to use anyway. Find one where the outsider is maybe +400. You will be able to lock in a much higher % of the bonus bet as profit. Even better if you can use different books and get better prices.

EG. One of my bets today is having a $60 bonus bet on the Knicks at +600 with one book & $316 cash bet on the Hornets with another book at -714. Guaranteed $44 profit.
xray
xray
Joined: Jan 28, 2019
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 4
January 28th, 2019 at 8:21:01 PM permalink
No, you only keep the winnings. The bet as I showed worked out to a guaranteed profit of $295 regardless of which team won. I don't think it's against the policy to bet against your bonus with real money; I've done experiments with $5 bonuses and had no trouble. Maybe I'll take Aussie's idea and use another book for the other side of the bet and hopefully even find better odds that way.
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 2108
January 29th, 2019 at 4:03:00 PM permalink
Quote: jackmagic777

sure they will. Then impound your account.



Any examples of American based sportsbooks doing this?
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 78
  • Posts: 902
January 29th, 2019 at 6:57:45 PM permalink
Quote: xray

... Maybe I'll take Aussie's idea and use another book for the other side of the bet and hopefully even find better odds that way.



I think this is a good idea, but I also have a few questions for the OP below:

Are there any turnover requirements if the bonus bet wins, if so what are they?

Is there a maximum win/payout for the bonus bet?
(If not, for the bonus bet I would generally go for something with high single digits or greater, for example odds of at least $8.00)

Are you allowed to split the bonus into smaller amounts, for example: 5 x $100 bonus bets?


Does Betfair USA^^^ have the same/similar betting structure as Betfair Australia***?

USA^^^: "Is Betfair Legal in the USA?
The answer is yes, it's legal to place bets using Betfair in USA. June 7, 2018 was the day when Betfair USA announced that the company teams up Meadowlands Racetrack in New Jersey, and that's for online and retail sports betting..."

https://azbookmakers.com/betfair-usa

Australia***: In a "two-outcome" market, basketball for example, Betfair usually has a "game-day" RTP of 99%-100% before commission. They currently charge a commission of 5% on the profit of your bet(s) in that market (so the shorter the price of the winner, the less effect it has on your overall RTP for that bet).

Note: I am from Australia so I can't access Betfair USA, so that is why I don't know if the betting markets and commission rules are the same.

------------------------

Here is a real life example of what I got a family member to do when he was offered a bonus:

Main Rules/Conditions:
(a) $500 "free play" bonus.
(b) "can only keep the winnings"
(c) $5000 maximum win on bonus
(d) "Turnover win at least once before you can cash-out".
(e) Bonus is canceled if it is not placed by a certain date.

Match Odds:

Team A was at odds of $10 with the sports book offering the bonus.
Team B was at odds of $1.095 with Betfair Australia (or $1.10 before the 5% commission on profits)

The betting method we used is below:

(1) Pick a "two-outcome" game with a low "house edge".
(2) Bet the $500 bonus on the Team A (odds $10)
(3) Bet about $4,110 real money on Team B (odds $1.095)
(4a) If the favorite wins, then the EV for the promotion was $390.45
(4b) If the underdog wins, then the EV for the promotion was $165^*^

$165^*^: If the underdog had won, then you would have made an average of $390 minus $225 ($4500 x 5% average house edge), since you had to "Turnover win at least once before you can cash-out".


----------------------

FYI: This happened 5 plus years ago, so all I can remember about the game was that it was an NBA match and that the favorite won the game.

Hope this was helpful and good luck.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 29, 2019
xray
xray
Joined: Jan 28, 2019
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 4
January 29th, 2019 at 7:27:25 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

I think this is a good idea, but I also have a few questions for the OP below:

Are there any turnover requirements if the bonus bet wins, if so what are they?

Are there maximum odds and/or maximum win for the bonus bet?
(If not, for the bonus bet I would generally go for something with high single digits or greater, for example odds of at least $8.00)

Are you allowed to split the bonus into smaller amounts, for example: 5 x $100 bonus bets?



I earned a $500 bet by betting $1000 on my first bet with DraftKings. I'm not sure what I needed to bet or win or what the max/min odds were, but I was free to do what I want with the $500 bonus bet, except with the limitation that it had to be placed in one bet.

I used the bonus $500 tonight. I placed the bonus $500 on the Sabres at +145.

Then I started an account with FanDuel and bet $500 with the Blue Jackets at -170.

The Sabres won. I won $775 on DraftKings and lost $500 on FanDuel for a $275 profit.

Had the Blue Jackets won, I would have won $294 with FanDuel and lost my $500 bonus from DraftKings for a $294 profit.

I did better losing on FanDuel as they had a bonus where if you lose your first bet, they will give you a $500 bonus bet, so now I can execute the same plan once again. :)

  • Jump to: