Goldendragon
Goldendragon
Joined: Mar 13, 2021
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March 13th, 2021 at 1:56:33 AM permalink
If anyone is interested work on a strategy for the Dragon Bonus, DM me. I have been working and testing out my own strategy for couple years now and would love to discuss it with others who understand.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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March 13th, 2021 at 7:43:03 AM permalink
Quote: Goldendragon

If anyone is interested work on a strategy for the Dragon Bonus, DM me. I have been working and testing out my own strategy for couple years now and would love to discuss it with others who understand.



Or just read Eliot's book.

Order from chaos
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
OnceDearcharliepatrick
March 13th, 2021 at 12:29:19 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Or just read Eliot's book.

Even easier ...

https://www.888casino.com/blog/side-bets/card-counting-the-dragon-bonus-baccarat-side-bet
Poetry website: www.totallydisconnected.com
Goldendragon
Goldendragon
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March 13th, 2021 at 1:00:46 PM permalink
It can get more complicated and detailed then that, but my strategy has worked.
teliot
teliot
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March 13th, 2021 at 2:28:23 PM permalink
Quote: Goldendragon

It can get more complicated and detailed then that, but my strategy has worked.

I suppose you could edge sort this side bet or key card it if you knew something about the shuffle. But as far as counting the side bet, it's nearly worthless and I hope that's not what you are suggesting.
Poetry website: www.totallydisconnected.com
manoharmd
manoharmd
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June 11th, 2021 at 8:53:12 AM permalink
Hi

I got below results from my simulator for Dragon-7 side bet. I ran for 1 Million games per session. Even for 100000 games per session also, Dragon-7 bet is returning positive EV for every session.

If any one has done similar analysis, Kindly share the details

Session-id: 1 Total-Shoes: 17908 Total-Games: 1000000 Player-Games: 493197 Banker-Games: 506803
Dragon-Count: 25170 Total-Dragon-Bet-Amount: 1000000 Dragon-Win-Amount: 1031970 Final-Dragon-Win-Loss-Amount: 31970

Session-id: 2 Total-Shoes: 17918 Total-Games: 1000000 Player-Games: 492954 Banker-Games: 507046
Dragon-Count: 25097 Total-Dragon-Bet-Amount: 1000000 Dragon-Win-Amount: 1028977 Final-Dragon-Win-Loss-Amount: 28977

Session-id: 3 Total-Shoes: 17925 Total-Games: 1000000 Player-Games: 492862 Banker-Games: 507138
Dragon-Count: 25118 Total-Dragon-Bet-Amount: 1000000 Dragon-Win-Amount: 1029838 Final-Dragon-Win-Loss-Amount: 29838

Session-id: 4 Total-Shoes: 17917 Total-Games: 1000000 Player-Games: 493594 Banker-Games: 506406
Dragon-Count: 25087 Total-Dragon-Bet-Amount: 1000000 Dragon-Win-Amount: 1028567 Final-Dragon-Win-Loss-Amount: 28567

Session-id: 5 Total-Shoes: 17919 Total-Games: 1000000 Player-Games: 492977 Banker-Games: 507023
Dragon-Count: 25267 Total-Dragon-Bet-Amount: 1000000 Dragon-Win-Amount: 1035947 Final-Dragon-Win-Loss-Amount: 35947

Session-id: 6 Total-Shoes: 17917 Total-Games: 1000000 Player-Games: 493002 Banker-Games: 506998
Dragon-Count: 25071 Total-Dragon-Bet-Amount: 1000000 Dragon-Win-Amount: 1027911 Final-Dragon-Win-Loss-Amount: 27911

Session-id: 7 Total-Shoes: 17924 Total-Games: 1000000 Player-Games: 492607 Banker-Games: 507393
Dragon-Count: 25144 Total-Dragon-Bet-Amount: 1000000 Dragon-Win-Amount: 1030904 Final-Dragon-Win-Loss-Amount: 30904

Session-id: 8 Total-Shoes: 17917 Total-Games: 1000000 Player-Games: 493901 Banker-Games: 506099
Dragon-Count: 25326 Total-Dragon-Bet-Amount: 1000000 Dragon-Win-Amount: 1038366 Final-Dragon-Win-Loss-Amount: 38366

Session-id: 9 Total-Shoes: 17913 Total-Games: 1000000 Player-Games: 493812 Banker-Games: 506188
Dragon-Count: 25060 Total-Dragon-Bet-Amount: 1000000 Dragon-Win-Amount: 1027460 Final-Dragon-Win-Loss-Amount: 27460

Session-id: 10 Total-Shoes: 17919 Total-Games: 1000000 Player-Games: 492620 Banker-Games: 507380
Dragon-Count: 25284 Total-Dragon-Bet-Amount: 1000000 Dragon-Win-Amount: 1036644 Final-Dragon-Win-Loss-Amount: 36644
manoharmd
manoharmd
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June 11th, 2021 at 8:56:30 AM permalink
I have excluded Ties in the final data, no card counting also.
gordonm888
gordonm888
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June 11th, 2021 at 5:02:02 PM permalink
Quote: manoharmd

I have excluded Ties in the final data, no card counting also.



The dragon sidebet is documented link here to have an EV of about -0.076 without card counting. Yet you are calculating that the dragon sidebet is positive EV without card counting on every simulation?

Normally, when an analyst gets that kind of result, they start searching for the error in their spreadsheet/program. May I suggest that you do the same?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
manoharmd
manoharmd
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June 11th, 2021 at 6:56:52 PM permalink
Thank you very much for the reply.

I actually printed the game logs [Actual Cards] for the first session and cross checked few thousand games manually. I understood Dragon 7 bet is a -ve expectation bet. HenceI thought of asking whether any one else has programmed it before.

I will recheck one more time.

I have collected all side bet stats, Tie, SuperSix, LowTie, Any Pair, Specific Pair and Dragon-7. I was a little amused with the Dragon result.

As you said, there may be some hidden issue in my program

Thank you for your response
manoharmd
manoharmd
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June 12th, 2021 at 10:13:38 PM permalink
Hi

Could you please let me know where Ez-Baccarat variant? [Dragon 7 bet and No-commission on Banker win except it is a push iin case of Dragon-7 for Banker]

I searched many online sites that I have access from my location, India and none of them offering this baccarat variant

Thanks in Advance

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