kiho0297
Joined: Dec 5, 2018
• Posts: 3
December 6th, 2018 at 12:00:56 AM permalink
Question about e-z commission free baccarat where third card 7 win 40 to 1. Looking at the house edge on the website, it looks like you are supposed to get 1 dragon in about 45 hands. Assuming that the shoe averages 80 hands, what is the chance of you not hitting a single dragon for a whole shoe and what is the chance of you not hitting a single dragon for two whole shoes?
ChesterDog
Joined: Jul 26, 2010
• Posts: 986
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December 6th, 2018 at 5:01:05 AM permalink
Quote: kiho0297

Question about e-z commission free baccarat where third card 7 win 40 to 1. Looking at the house edge on the website, it looks like you are supposed to get 1 dragon in about 45 hands. Assuming that the shoe averages 80 hands, what is the chance of you not hitting a single dragon for a whole shoe and what is the chance of you not hitting a single dragon for two whole shoes?

Regarding the Dragon 7 side bet, the probability of its not winning even once in 80 hands is about: ( 1 - 1/45 )^80 = 17%.

And for 160 hands, the probability of not winning even once is about: ( 1 - 1/45 )^160 = 3%.
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
• Posts: 1977
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December 6th, 2018 at 11:46:58 AM permalink
Quote: kiho0297

what is the chance of you not hitting a single dragon for a whole shoe and what is the chance of you not hitting a single dragon for two whole shoes?

interesting question as you must have seen those events?
the probability is closer to 1/44.38 (and matches 2 large simulations)

so here is a table for 1 and 2 shoes with NO dragon 7
depending on the average number of rounds per shoe
(I have seen now between 14 and 52 cards cutoff at casinos, maybe trying to put a dent in counting the dragon 7)
74 rounds about right for 52 cards cutoff
roundsno 1 shoe1 inno 2 shoes1 in
810.1578636846.3350.02492094340.127
800.1615027736.1920.02608314638.339
790.165225756.0520.02729954936.631
780.169034555.9160.02857267934.998
770.1729311515.7830.02990518333.439
760.1769175775.6520.03129982931.949
750.1809958995.5250.03275951530.525
740.1851682345.4000.03428727529.165
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
kiho0297
Joined: Dec 5, 2018
• Posts: 3
December 6th, 2018 at 12:44:56 PM permalink
I ve been playing the way that I will break even if I hit one dragon in 80 hands shoe. Devided 80 hands into 4 different betting sizes. Depend on which point of shoe I hit, I make different amount and i have not lost yet in about 4 sessions I tried which I stopped playing after about \$400 profit. I tried \$10 x 34hands, \$20 x 23hands, \$30 x 12hands and \$40 x 11hands with \$1600. So in numbers, how often am I supposed to lose and what outcome am I supposed to expect?
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
• Posts: 1977
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December 6th, 2018 at 1:10:03 PM permalink
Quote: kiho0297

So in numbers, how often am I supposed to lose and what outcome am I supposed to expect?

just about 1 in 6 shoes on average have NO Dragon 7

Are you aware that you can count for the Dragon 7 bet
and done correctly have an edge over that bet?

I have yet to see how the Dragon 7 is distributed through a shoe
(I know about the 1.8 times on average per shoe it hits)

think I run a simulation for fun and get the Dragon 7 hand Index distribution
so all can see it
(i guess all rounds are equal, not 100% sure with card removal)

and as expected
here is data (1 million shoes sampled - 8 deck 14 cards cutoff)
handcountprob
1227160.012401513
2224740.012269396
3226560.012368757
4222540.01214929
5223430.012197878
6225680.012320714
7227270.012407518
8223900.012223537
9225990.012337638
10226790.012381313
11226150.012346373
12225690.01232126
13225390.012304882
14224920.012279223
15227500.012420075
16224850.012275401
17223070.012178225
18223600.012207159
19226760.012379675
20226090.012343098
21224750.012269942
22224150.012237186
23223860.012221354
24224710.012267758
25225040.012285774
26225310.012300514
27223330.012192419
28228950.012499236
29223800.012218078
30223660.012210435
31226140.012345827
32223770.01221644
33225360.012303244
34224360.01224865
35226690.012375854
36224720.012268304
37225720.012322898
38225480.012309795
39222310.012136733
40225390.012304882
41226680.012375308
42224490.012255748
43224080.012233364
44226380.01235893
45226530.012367119
46225340.012302152
47225250.012297239
48227910.012442458
49224900.012278131
50226770.012380221
51226290.012354016
52224630.012263391
53226270.012352924
54227240.01240588
55224760.012270488
56222240.012132912
57226220.012350195
58225650.012319076
59226880.012386227
60226300.012354562
61225460.012308704
62225310.012300514
63224560.012259569
64227220.012404789
65227170.012402059
66224710.012267758
67228750.012488317
68224240.012242099
69223210.012185868
70224420.012251926
71225840.012329449
72224520.012257385
73226530.012367119
74224790.012272126
75224330.012247013
76224340.012247559
77225650.012319076
78221550.012095242
79216940.011843565
80194970.010644141
81154550.008437462
82100670.005495951
8351410.002806664
8419140.001044924
855160.000281704
861095.95072E-05
87191.03728E-05
8815.45937E-07
Last edited by: 7craps on Dec 6, 2018
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
kiho0297
Joined: Dec 5, 2018
• Posts: 3
December 6th, 2018 at 3:19:36 PM permalink
So if you are supposed to have no Dragon 1 out 6 shoes and assumming that i am gonna lose \$1600 one out of six shoes avg, then I need 5 dragons total out of 6 shoes to not lose money? It seems too easy to hit 5 dragons in 6 shoes where you see more than one dragon each shoes too. Looks like i need to make \$320 and up for 5 sessions, and lose one to break even. You think is it easier to win \$320 or more each session for 5 times or is it easier to lose \$1600 in 6 sessions?
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
• Posts: 1977
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December 7th, 2018 at 9:11:06 AM permalink
Quote: kiho0297

So if you are supposed to have no Dragon 1 out 6 shoes and assumming that i am gonna lose \$1600 one out of six shoes avg,

exactly
Quote: kiho0297

then I need 5 dragons total out of 6 shoes to not lose money?

LOL. the Dragon 7 bet would have been taken away if that was 100% true.
when you only get 1 D7 per shoe, well over 50% of the time you still show a LOSS for that shoe.
45% of shoes have 0 or 1 D7.
this is very easily seen in a simple simulation
and about 25% of the shoes when you get 2 D7s still ends in a loss for that shoe.
and you still have not hit your target of \$400 to stop. that might have to be reconsidered.
Quote: kiho0297

It seems too easy to hit 5 dragons in 6 shoes where you see more than one dragon each shoes too.

remember you will have a cumulative LOSS at the time you hit a D7.

question is can you overcome the 7+% house edge?
that is a loss of about \$112 per shoe over \$1600 wagered, on average.

I think you need to work this through or just keep playing
until you lose more.

you have won so far by luck alone and the house edge never goes away
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
• Posts: 6763
December 7th, 2018 at 9:26:02 AM permalink
Learn to count the Dragon 7, then only bet when the conditions are ripe. The casino will also entice you to bet the Panda 8 and Tie, so there are lots of other ways in this game to separate you from your money.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
• Posts: 1977
December 7th, 2018 at 9:52:40 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Learn to count the Dragon 7,

yes
Quote: Ayecarumba

then only bet when the conditions are ripe.

super boring Play could cause a 'no having fun' moment, no matter winning or losing

maybe a combination as the OP may want to bet more than 6 times on average per shoe

excitement every hand, eyes glued to the cards looking for that Dragon 7
and variance high enough for that rush!

have fun no matter what you do
just remember, you only win by luck, without counting, no matter
how much you bet and how you feel at the time you play
the cards do not care about you
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009