Question about e-z commission free baccarat where third card 7 win 40 to 1. Looking at the house edge on the website, it looks like you are supposed to get 1 dragon in about 45 hands. Assuming that the shoe averages 80 hands, what is the chance of you not hitting a single dragon for a whole shoe and what is the chance of you not hitting a single dragon for two whole shoes?
Regarding the Dragon 7 side bet, the probability of its not winning even once in 80 hands is about: ( 1 - 1/45 )^80 = 17%.
And for 160 hands, the probability of not winning even once is about: ( 1 - 1/45 )^160 = 3%.
interesting question as you must have seen those events?Quote: kiho0297
what is the chance of you not hitting a single dragon for a whole shoe and what is the chance of you not hitting a single dragon for two whole shoes?
the probability is closer to 1/44.38 (and matches 2 large simulations)
so here is a table for 1 and 2 shoes with NO dragon 7
depending on the average number of rounds per shoe
(I have seen now between 14 and 52 cards cutoff at casinos, maybe trying to put a dent in counting the dragon 7)
74 rounds about right for 52 cards cutoff
|rounds||no 1 shoe||1 in||no 2 shoes||1 in|
just about 1 in 6 shoes on average have NO Dragon 7Quote: kiho0297
So in numbers, how often am I supposed to lose and what outcome am I supposed to expect?
Are you aware that you can count for the Dragon 7 bet
and done correctly have an edge over that bet?
your method of shoe play looks fun and adds some thrill.
I have yet to see how the Dragon 7 is distributed through a shoe
(I know about the 1.8 times on average per shoe it hits)
think I run a simulation for fun and get the Dragon 7 hand Index distribution
so all can see it
(i guess all rounds are equal, not 100% sure with card removal)
and as expected
here is data (1 million shoes sampled - 8 deck 14 cards cutoff)
So if you are supposed to have no Dragon 1 out 6 shoes and assumming that i am gonna lose $1600 one out of six shoes avg,
LOL. the Dragon 7 bet would have been taken away if that was 100% true.Quote: kiho0297
then I need 5 dragons total out of 6 shoes to not lose money?
when you only get 1 D7 per shoe, well over 50% of the time you still show a LOSS for that shoe.
45% of shoes have 0 or 1 D7.
this is very easily seen in a simple simulation
and about 25% of the shoes when you get 2 D7s still ends in a loss for that shoe.
and you still have not hit your target of $400 to stop. that might have to be reconsidered.
remember you will have a cumulative LOSS at the time you hit a D7.Quote: kiho0297
It seems too easy to hit 5 dragons in 6 shoes where you see more than one dragon each shoes too.
question is can you overcome the 7+% house edge?
that is a loss of about $112 per shoe over $1600 wagered, on average.
I think you need to work this through or just keep playing
until you lose more.
you have won so far by luck alone and the house edge never goes away
Learn to count the Dragon 7,
super boring Play could cause a 'no having fun' moment, no matter winning or losingQuote: Ayecarumba
then only bet when the conditions are ripe.
maybe a combination as the OP may want to bet more than 6 times on average per shoe
excitement every hand, eyes glued to the cards looking for that Dragon 7
and variance high enough for that rush!
have fun no matter what you do
just remember, you only win by luck, without counting, no matter
how much you bet and how you feel at the time you play
the cards do not care about you