DRAGON 7 e-z baccarat

Question about e-z commission free baccarat where third card 7 win 40 to 1. Looking at the house edge on the website, it looks like you are supposed to get 1 dragon in about 45 hands. Assuming that the shoe averages 80 hands, what is the chance of you not hitting a single dragon for a whole shoe and what is the chance of you not hitting a single dragon for two whole shoes?

Quote: kiho0297

Question about e-z commission free baccarat where third card 7 win 40 to 1. Looking at the house edge on the website, it looks like you are supposed to get 1 dragon in about 45 hands. Assuming that the shoe averages 80 hands, what is the chance of you not hitting a single dragon for a whole shoe and what is the chance of you not hitting a single dragon for two whole shoes?

Regarding the Dragon 7 side bet, the probability of its not winning even once in 80 hands is about: ( 1 - 1/45 )^80 = 17%.

And for 160 hands, the probability of not winning even once is about: ( 1 - 1/45 )^160 = 3%.

Quote: kiho0297

what is the chance of you not hitting a single dragon for a whole shoe and what is the chance of you not hitting a single dragon for two whole shoes?

interesting question as you must have seen those events?
the probability is closer to 1/44.38 (and matches 2 large simulations)

so here is a table for 1 and 2 shoes with NO dragon 7
depending on the average number of rounds per shoe
(I have seen now between 14 and 52 cards cutoff at casinos, maybe trying to put a dent in counting the dragon 7)
74 rounds about right for 52 cards cutoff

rounds	no 1 shoe	1 in	no 2 shoes	1 in
81	0.157863684	6.335	0.024920943	40.127
80	0.161502773	6.192	0.026083146	38.339
79	0.16522575	6.052	0.027299549	36.631
78	0.16903455	5.916	0.028572679	34.998
77	0.172931151	5.783	0.029905183	33.439
76	0.176917577	5.652	0.031299829	31.949
75	0.180995899	5.525	0.032759515	30.525
74	0.185168234	5.400	0.034287275	29.165

I ve been playing the way that I will break even if I hit one dragon in 80 hands shoe. Devided 80 hands into 4 different betting sizes. Depend on which point of shoe I hit, I make different amount and i have not lost yet in about 4 sessions I tried which I stopped playing after about $400 profit. I tried $10 x 34hands, $20 x 23hands, $30 x 12hands and $40 x 11hands with $1600. So in numbers, how often am I supposed to lose and what outcome am I supposed to expect?

Quote: kiho0297

So in numbers, how often am I supposed to lose and what outcome am I supposed to expect?

just about 1 in 6 shoes on average have NO Dragon 7

Are you aware that you can count for the Dragon 7 bet
and done correctly have an edge over that bet?

your method of shoe play looks fun and adds some thrill.

I have yet to see how the Dragon 7 is distributed through a shoe
(I know about the 1.8 times on average per shoe it hits)

think I run a simulation for fun and get the Dragon 7 hand Index distribution
so all can see it
(i guess all rounds are equal, not 100% sure with card removal)

and as expected
here is data (1 million shoes sampled - 8 deck 14 cards cutoff)

hand	count	prob
1	22716	0.012401513
2	22474	0.012269396
3	22656	0.012368757
4	22254	0.01214929
5	22343	0.012197878
6	22568	0.012320714
7	22727	0.012407518
8	22390	0.012223537
9	22599	0.012337638
10	22679	0.012381313
11	22615	0.012346373
12	22569	0.01232126
13	22539	0.012304882
14	22492	0.012279223
15	22750	0.012420075
16	22485	0.012275401
17	22307	0.012178225
18	22360	0.012207159
19	22676	0.012379675
20	22609	0.012343098
21	22475	0.012269942
22	22415	0.012237186
23	22386	0.012221354
24	22471	0.012267758
25	22504	0.012285774
26	22531	0.012300514
27	22333	0.012192419
28	22895	0.012499236
29	22380	0.012218078
30	22366	0.012210435
31	22614	0.012345827
32	22377	0.01221644
33	22536	0.012303244
34	22436	0.01224865
35	22669	0.012375854
36	22472	0.012268304
37	22572	0.012322898
38	22548	0.012309795
39	22231	0.012136733
40	22539	0.012304882
41	22668	0.012375308
42	22449	0.012255748
43	22408	0.012233364
44	22638	0.01235893
45	22653	0.012367119
46	22534	0.012302152
47	22525	0.012297239
48	22791	0.012442458
49	22490	0.012278131
50	22677	0.012380221
51	22629	0.012354016
52	22463	0.012263391
53	22627	0.012352924
54	22724	0.01240588
55	22476	0.012270488
56	22224	0.012132912
57	22622	0.012350195
58	22565	0.012319076
59	22688	0.012386227
60	22630	0.012354562
61	22546	0.012308704
62	22531	0.012300514
63	22456	0.012259569
64	22722	0.012404789
65	22717	0.012402059
66	22471	0.012267758
67	22875	0.012488317
68	22424	0.012242099
69	22321	0.012185868
70	22442	0.012251926
71	22584	0.012329449
72	22452	0.012257385
73	22653	0.012367119
74	22479	0.012272126
75	22433	0.012247013
76	22434	0.012247559
77	22565	0.012319076
78	22155	0.012095242
79	21694	0.011843565
80	19497	0.010644141
81	15455	0.008437462
82	10067	0.005495951
83	5141	0.002806664
84	1914	0.001044924
85	516	0.000281704
86	109	5.95072E-05
87	19	1.03728E-05
88	1	5.45937E-07

So if you are supposed to have no Dragon 1 out 6 shoes and assumming that i am gonna lose $1600 one out of six shoes avg, then I need 5 dragons total out of 6 shoes to not lose money? It seems too easy to hit 5 dragons in 6 shoes where you see more than one dragon each shoes too. Looks like i need to make $320 and up for 5 sessions, and lose one to break even. You think is it easier to win $320 or more each session for 5 times or is it easier to lose $1600 in 6 sessions?

Quote: kiho0297

So if you are supposed to have no Dragon 1 out 6 shoes and assumming that i am gonna lose $1600 one out of six shoes avg,

exactly

Quote: kiho0297

then I need 5 dragons total out of 6 shoes to not lose money?

LOL. the Dragon 7 bet would have been taken away if that was 100% true.
when you only get 1 D7 per shoe, well over 50% of the time you still show a LOSS for that shoe.
45% of shoes have 0 or 1 D7.
this is very easily seen in a simple simulation
and about 25% of the shoes when you get 2 D7s still ends in a loss for that shoe.
and you still have not hit your target of $400 to stop. that might have to be reconsidered.

Quote: kiho0297

It seems too easy to hit 5 dragons in 6 shoes where you see more than one dragon each shoes too.

remember you will have a cumulative LOSS at the time you hit a D7.

question is can you overcome the 7+% house edge?
that is a loss of about $112 per shoe over $1600 wagered, on average.

I think you need to work this through or just keep playing
until you lose more.

you have won so far by luck alone and the house edge never goes away

Learn to count the Dragon 7, then only bet when the conditions are ripe. The casino will also entice you to bet the Panda 8 and Tie, so there are lots of other ways in this game to separate you from your money.

Quote: Ayecarumba

Learn to count the Dragon 7,

yes

Quote: Ayecarumba

then only bet when the conditions are ripe.

super boring Play could cause a 'no having fun' moment, no matter winning or losing

maybe a combination as the OP may want to bet more than 6 times on average per shoe

excitement every hand, eyes glued to the cards looking for that Dragon 7
and variance high enough for that rush!

have fun no matter what you do
just remember, you only win by luck, without counting, no matter
how much you bet and how you feel at the time you play
the cards do not care about you

Quote: 7craps

...no matter...how you feel at the time you play
the cards do not care about you

These are words to live by.

If anyone is interested work on a strategy for the Dragon Bonus, DM me. I have been working and testing out my own strategy for couple years now and would love to discuss it with others who understand.

Quote: Goldendragon

If anyone is interested work on a strategy for the Dragon Bonus, DM me. I have been working and testing out my own strategy for couple years now and would love to discuss it with others who understand.

Or just read Eliot's book.

Quote: DRich

Or just read Eliot's book.

Even easier ...

https://www.888casino.com/blog/side-bets/card-counting-the-dragon-bonus-baccarat-side-bet

It can get more complicated and detailed then that, but my strategy has worked.

Quote: Goldendragon

It can get more complicated and detailed then that, but my strategy has worked.

I suppose you could edge sort this side bet or key card it if you knew something about the shuffle. But as far as counting the side bet, it's nearly worthless and I hope that's not what you are suggesting.

Hi

I got below results from my simulator for Dragon-7 side bet. I ran for 1 Million games per session. Even for 100000 games per session also, Dragon-7 bet is returning positive EV for every session.

If any one has done similar analysis, Kindly share the details

Session-id: 1 Total-Shoes: 17908 Total-Games: 1000000 Player-Games: 493197 Banker-Games: 506803
Dragon-Count: 25170 Total-Dragon-Bet-Amount: 1000000 Dragon-Win-Amount: 1031970 Final-Dragon-Win-Loss-Amount: 31970

Session-id: 2 Total-Shoes: 17918 Total-Games: 1000000 Player-Games: 492954 Banker-Games: 507046
Dragon-Count: 25097 Total-Dragon-Bet-Amount: 1000000 Dragon-Win-Amount: 1028977 Final-Dragon-Win-Loss-Amount: 28977

Session-id: 3 Total-Shoes: 17925 Total-Games: 1000000 Player-Games: 492862 Banker-Games: 507138
Dragon-Count: 25118 Total-Dragon-Bet-Amount: 1000000 Dragon-Win-Amount: 1029838 Final-Dragon-Win-Loss-Amount: 29838

Session-id: 4 Total-Shoes: 17917 Total-Games: 1000000 Player-Games: 493594 Banker-Games: 506406
Dragon-Count: 25087 Total-Dragon-Bet-Amount: 1000000 Dragon-Win-Amount: 1028567 Final-Dragon-Win-Loss-Amount: 28567

Session-id: 5 Total-Shoes: 17919 Total-Games: 1000000 Player-Games: 492977 Banker-Games: 507023
Dragon-Count: 25267 Total-Dragon-Bet-Amount: 1000000 Dragon-Win-Amount: 1035947 Final-Dragon-Win-Loss-Amount: 35947

Session-id: 6 Total-Shoes: 17917 Total-Games: 1000000 Player-Games: 493002 Banker-Games: 506998
Dragon-Count: 25071 Total-Dragon-Bet-Amount: 1000000 Dragon-Win-Amount: 1027911 Final-Dragon-Win-Loss-Amount: 27911

Session-id: 7 Total-Shoes: 17924 Total-Games: 1000000 Player-Games: 492607 Banker-Games: 507393
Dragon-Count: 25144 Total-Dragon-Bet-Amount: 1000000 Dragon-Win-Amount: 1030904 Final-Dragon-Win-Loss-Amount: 30904

Session-id: 8 Total-Shoes: 17917 Total-Games: 1000000 Player-Games: 493901 Banker-Games: 506099
Dragon-Count: 25326 Total-Dragon-Bet-Amount: 1000000 Dragon-Win-Amount: 1038366 Final-Dragon-Win-Loss-Amount: 38366

Session-id: 9 Total-Shoes: 17913 Total-Games: 1000000 Player-Games: 493812 Banker-Games: 506188
Dragon-Count: 25060 Total-Dragon-Bet-Amount: 1000000 Dragon-Win-Amount: 1027460 Final-Dragon-Win-Loss-Amount: 27460

Session-id: 10 Total-Shoes: 17919 Total-Games: 1000000 Player-Games: 492620 Banker-Games: 507380
Dragon-Count: 25284 Total-Dragon-Bet-Amount: 1000000 Dragon-Win-Amount: 1036644 Final-Dragon-Win-Loss-Amount: 36644

I have excluded Ties in the final data, no card counting also.

Quote: manoharmd

I have excluded Ties in the final data, no card counting also.

The dragon sidebet is documented link here to have an EV of about -0.076 without card counting. Yet you are calculating that the dragon sidebet is positive EV without card counting on every simulation?

Normally, when an analyst gets that kind of result, they start searching for the error in their spreadsheet/program. May I suggest that you do the same?

Thank you very much for the reply.

I actually printed the game logs [Actual Cards] for the first session and cross checked few thousand games manually. I understood Dragon 7 bet is a -ve expectation bet. HenceI thought of asking whether any one else has programmed it before.

I will recheck one more time.

I have collected all side bet stats, Tie, SuperSix, LowTie, Any Pair, Specific Pair and Dragon-7. I was a little amused with the Dragon result.

As you said, there may be some hidden issue in my program

Thank you for your response

Hi

Could you please let me know where Ez-Baccarat variant? [Dragon 7 bet and No-commission on Banker win except it is a push iin case of Dragon-7 for Banker]

I searched many online sites that I have access from my location, India and none of them offering this baccarat variant

Thanks in Advance