Theoretical "Cap" on profits
Does anyone else have this "cap" which they know they cant really win more than that in a period of a day?
Quote: RSYes I have the problem of this I think but not sure I do understand this entirely. Can you explain more what you mean by 'cap'?
I only bet the minimum and I reach a specific amount of money of which normally is anywhere from 100 to 300 dollars where I cant win any more than that. I spend alot of the time being even as well but have been lucky enough to most of the time walk away up. The thing is after a certain amount of time ill go up to lets say 150 for the day and go down and go back up and it will not go past the 150 for the day no matter how many times i attempt. So i have come to accept this as my daily "cap" or limit as to where I know that I should walk away. I normally stop at incrments of 100 so ill either walk away at 100, 200, or 300 for the day. This isnt always my rule, because I have had days where it is more profit. My best day was 800 playing minimum bets, going to different tables, ranging from 15-25 dollar tables. But this cap is kind of like a signal, where if i go down and come back up to a certain amount more than once, such as that $150, i will walk away for the day.
Quote: heatmapI only bet the minimum and I reach a specific amount of money of which normally is anywhere from 100 to 300 dollars where I cant win any more than that. I spend alot of the time being even as well but have been lucky enough to most of the time walk away up. The thing is after a certain amount of time ill go up to lets say 150 for the day and go down and go back up and it will not go past the 150 for the day no matter how many times i attempt. So i have come to accept this as my daily "cap" or limit as to where I know that I should walk away. I normally stop at incrments of 100 so ill either walk away at 100, 200, or 300 for the day. This isnt always my rule, because I have had days where it is more profit. My best day was 800 playing minimum bets, going to different tables, ranging from 15-25 dollar tables. But this cap is kind of like a signal, where if i go down and come back up to a certain amount more than once, such as that $150, i will walk away for the day.
Oh yeah, that makes more sense now. Thx. I try to keep my sessions short, just like you. Almost every session I’m up at least one unit at some point in time, although usually more than just one. The casino wins in the long run, which is why I don’t play longer than an hour. If I keep sessions short and follow strict discipline, I will usually win. The sessions where I just get slaughtered, if I just leave before I get slaughtered, I think that’ll work. Still tweaking my system though.
What do you think?
Quote: RSOh yeah, that makes more sense now. Thx. I try to keep my sessions short, just like you. Almost every session I’m up at least one unit at some point in time, although usually more than just one. The casino wins in the long run, which is why I don’t play longer than an hour. If I keep sessions short and follow strict discipline, I will usually win. The sessions where I just get slaughtered, if I just leave before I get slaughtered, I think that’ll work. Still tweaking my system though.
What do you think?
thats the only way ive ever been able to win. i love gambling though. walking away, when im up is the hardest part because I always assume im going to continue to profit because i just did it a moment ago right? wrong obviously on my part. my biggest hurdle is that i love the game so much that i lose track of time and the tables i play at usually contain fun people or people who want to have fun and just gamble and it usually works out. But it only takes a quick hit before I can lose my profits for the day which is why ive had to keep them short. its just not fun to walk away when you have just had the time of your life making more money than you ever will compared to my current job and all previous jobs ive ever had. walking away is paramount to winning because Ive gone to the casino and have ALWAYS been up at least one unit but i never walked away. when i started playing blackjack i decided to focus on walking away when i am up as the number one technique i wanted to practice.
If this money management works for you, I don't want to sway you away from it. If you're making more profits than loses, I'm genuinely happy for you and keep doing what you're doing (no sarcasm here)! However, I don't want you to believe in this fairy-tale cap because the very next set of hands may be very favorable (or very unfavorable) for you. As they say..."yesterday is history, and tomorrow(your next hands, shoes, or sessions) is a mystery."
ZCore13
Quote: RSOh yeah, that makes more sense now. Thx. I try to keep my sessions short, just like you. Almost every session I’m up at least one unit at some point in time, although usually more than just one. The casino wins in the long run, which is why I don’t play longer than an hour. If I keep sessions short and follow strict discipline, I will usually win. The sessions where I just get slaughtered, if I just leave before I get slaughtered, I think that’ll work. Still tweaking my system though.
What do you think?
Keep a calender of your wins and losses. Six or seven sessions should suffice. Mark winning sessions in blue, losing in red.
Stare at the calender, emptying your mind of all thoughts. Soon, an almost imperceptible pattern will emerge. On the days you are scheduled to get slaughtered, reduce your bankroll by 20%. More than that and they will know you are on to them and change the pattern
Also, and almost as important, always gamble on Tuesdays. Few things will console you after a losing session like two for one Tacos., and tacos after a winning session is simply like capturing a small slice of heaven.
Most casinos have unsophisticated video surveillance. You can fool them by walking backwards through an exit only door. This sometimes prevents them from hitting " the switch".
Lastly, as soon as you are $20 ahead, take a break, visit the gift shop and buy a hat or a t-shirt. Spending the money locks in a win as you can't lose what you already spent. Steve Bucsemi taught me that after a week-long drinking binge in Sayersville. The man knows his stuff. Most people are unaware that Steve once ran Atlantic City. HBO supposedly did a documentary about it but who can afford premium cable.
Each of these tidbits adds about one percent value to your game.
Quote: MaxPenInstead of min betting at 25, sounds like you should up your number of units bet. 100 per bet should allow you to win 400 to 1200 per day. You can have a better than expected day everyday. Imagine the possibilities. What do you think heatmap?
ive considered this. but i did it in the wrong way. i went to the high roller room and got completely killed. Now i know that if im having that type of success outside of the high roller room i should take the chances because of how much confidence i have in my winning but i usually speak of two issues, one is people who come into the games willy nilly and two is variance.
Quote: heatmapive considered this. but i did it in the wrong way. i went to the high roller room and got completely killed. Now i know that if im having that type of success outside of the high roller room i should take the chances because of how much confidence i have in my winning but i usually speak of two issues, one is people who come into the games willy nilly and two is variance.
Confidence is really important in blackjack. I believe it's right up there with keeping hydrated.
ZCore13
Quote: billryanKeep a calender of your wins and losses. Six or seven sessions should suffice. Mark winning sessions in blue, losing in red.
Stare at the calender, emptying your mind of all thoughts. Soon, an almost imperceptible pattern will emerge. On the days you are scheduled to get slaughtered, reduce your bankroll by 20%. More than that and they will know you are on to them and change the pattern
Also, and almost as important, always gamble on Tuesdays. Few things will console you after a losing session like two for one Tacos., and tacos after a winning session is simply like capturing a small slice of heaven.
Most casinos have unsophisticated video surveillance. You can fool them by walking backwards through an exit only door. This sometimes prevents them from hitting " the switch".
Lastly, as soon as you are $20 ahead, take a break, visit the gift shop and buy a hat or a t-shirt. Spending the money locks in a win as you can't lose what you already spent. Steve Bucsemi taught me that after a week-long drinking binge in Sayersville. The man knows his stuff.
Each of these tidbits adds about one percent value to your game.
youve got the schedule alllll wrong ;-) its monday through sunday 6am to 8 am.
i only get killed on the weekend to be honest. saturdays are my worst days. early mornings i thrive.
Quote: Zcore13Confidence is really important in blackjack. I believe it's right up there with keeping hydrated.
ZCore13
i absolutely agree. if you dont take the card you were "supposed" to around here - aka play BS - the next guy who has the same hand score as you gets the card you should have and it normally benefits that guy. If you have no confidence you will never take a chance past the score 16, and ive seen it happen - and it screwed the entire table. (playing out hands that should have been is always something i do and its crazy how many people who surrender when they should have hit).
I dont know if you read my article about 50-1 freebet, but there was 1 asain guy at our table who couldnt win. everyone and i mean everyone else at the table was pulling blackjacks, 21, 20, and the dealer was flailing, except for this guy and it is because he kept doing stupid stuff. Surrender on a 14 and the entire table pulls ahead, he was even in the second position as well. Mostly surrendering on things around the sands gets you no where in my opinion.
Quote: heatmapyouve got the schedule alllll wrong ;-) its monday through sunday 6am to 8 am.
i only get killed on the weekend to be honest. saturdays are my worst days. early mornings i thrive.
Patient: Doc, it hurts when I do this.
Doctor: So stop doing that.
The obvious solution seems don't play on Saturdays and play more in the morning.
Quote: Zcore13Confidence is really important in blackjack. I believe it's right up there with keeping hydrated.
ZCore13
F.I.D.O.!
Quote: Zcore13Confidence is really important in blackjack. I believe it's right up there with keeping hydrated.
ZCore13
^ Zcore works a a casino he knows whats up
Actually, a win limit can be understandable if you won't gamble again or you will take a long break after reaching your goal, but I don't understand the concept of loss limits at all. If you set your loss limit at $100, why don't you make that amount your bankroll? In other words, the loss limit should always be your bankroll.
I can't make every gambling day a winner, but if I can win just the gas money, I've just been wasting my time.
Quote: ChumpChangeIf you play 100 hands, you may be hitting a boundary of win 10 hands or lose 10 hands; play 400 hands the boundary increases to +/- 20 hands; play 900 hands the boundary increases to +/- 30 hands, etc.
It doesn't matter. What is the difference between playing 900 rounds in 1 day and playing 100 rounds per day for 9 days? Nothing. You always take a break between rounds. How does taking a 1-second break make your chance better or worse than taking a 1-day break?
If I'm running a multi-day progression, I'll have to buy-in the next day where I left off with the risk of losing all I won on the previous days leading up to this point in the progression, but I could win way more with 10 hands ahead midway through a multi-day progression than if I just restarted the progression each day. If I can scrape together 10 days where I won 10 hands each day, on a multi-day progression that could add up to 5 figures whereas if I buy-in with the same $200 each day I may only win $200 or so each day.
Quote: ChumpChangeSay I win $200 in my 1st session, lose the next 2 sessions and I'm down $200, then I win 1 session and I'm back to even. I've played 4 sessions (4 hours maybe) and just spun my wheels. If I quit while ahead on the first hour I could mark a win for the day.
You can replace hours with days. Also, if you play for 4 units of time, which can be 4 hours or 4 days or 4 weeks, etc, you may win $800 or more or you may lose $800 or more. Let's say your target is $200, and your loss limit is $200. You can lose $200 each day for 4 days or you can lose $200 each hour for 4 hours. You can also win $200 each day for 4 days or win $200 each hour for 4 hours. I fail to see the difference.
Quote: ChumpChangeSay I win $200 in my 1st session, lose the next 2 sessions and I'm down $200, then I win 1 session and I'm back to even. I've played 4 sessions (4 hours maybe) and just spun my wheels. If I quit while ahead on the first hour I could mark a win for the day. Some states don't allow you to deduct losing days on your taxes, so it's better to quit while ahead if possible for the day.
If I'm running a multi-day progression, I'll have to buy-in the next day where I left off with the risk of losing all I won on the previous days leading up to this point in the progression, but I could win way more with 10 hands ahead midway through a multi-day progression than if I just restarted the progression each day. If I can scrape together 10 days where I won 10 hands each day, on a multi-day progression that could add up to 5 figures whereas if I buy-in with the same $200 each day I may only win $200 or so each day.
It's probably fun for you to think that way, but it makes absolutely no difference. If you quit while you are ahead, you might be stopping right before you lose, but you also might be quitting before a win. When you return, whether it's a minute, hour or days, the odds have not changed from your previous session. You might win, you might lose. In all situation, you're more likely to lose, but starting and stopping does not affect it at all.
ZCore13
Quote: ChumpChangeIt might be easier to win 10 hands a day than it is to win 30 hands a day. You walk into a casino, play 100 hands and you're up 10 hands. Yay for you! Going home is an option. If you lost 10 hands, you'll just have to battle it out until you get to 10 hands ahead. It's a simple daily win goal. You could spend the next 3 hours trying to get out from under to get to your daily win goal.
"Day" is merely a unit of time. How does the unit of time you use for taking a break affect the expected value? I don't see how taking a break and going home after reaching your goal can affect the future. You may be ahead today, but you may be ruined tomorrow. You may be ahead this hour, but you may be ruined the next hour. What's the difference?
As for your example, if you go home after you are ahead 10 units today, you may lose 10 units tomorrow. If you don't quit, you could spend 3 hours trying to achieve your goal. In the end, it doesn't change anything. You just defer the event.
Quote: ChumpChangeIf you buy-in for $4000 for 10 bets of $400, and your win goal is to win 10 hands to get you to $8000, you don't have to go much further before you're filling out CTR's and maybe that isn't your cup of tea. Just an odd example of how game days matter.
.....and? That doesn't make it any easier or harder to win any amount.
Do you think it's easier to win 10 units a day over 3 days or winning 30 units in one day? Why leave when you're ahead 10 units if you can keep playing?
Quote: ChumpChangeIf you buy-in for $4000 for 10 bets of $400, and your win goal is to win 10 hands to get you to $8000, you don't have to go much further before you're filling out CTR's and maybe that isn't your cup of tea. Just an odd example of how game days matter.
I don't understand your point. How is this related to what we have discussed?
Quote: ChumpChangeI also said some states would prefer you win on every table because they won't count losses in the tax code. If I was only playing one table per day, that should be clear.
In that case, it's better to play 400 rounds a day and break even than play 100 rounds per day for 4 days and break even (win 2 days and lose 2 days). When you say that they don't count losses, do you mean that they don't count net losses each day?
Quote: BlackjackLoverWhen you say that they don't count losses, do you mean that they don't count net losses each day?
They check your gambling diary, if you have one, and from what I've read on here the profit/loss statements from the casino on table games can hardly be trusted. So you're supposed to write down the table number you're at, how much your buy-in was, what your color-up was, and the net win/loss on that table (session/daily). So I'm guessing they just add up every table you won on, disregard every table you lost on, and tax you on the winning total if it's high enough. So you win $100K on the winning tables, lose $120K on the losing tables, but the state charges you tax on the $100K you won on the winning tables and tells you they won't hear about your losses.
Was the chiropractor who won & lost a million dollars a year a professional gambler?
Who cares what you told the Feds, they didn't audit you, we did!
https://www.dta.ny.gov/pdf/decisions/825935.dec.pdf
Quote: ChumpChangeThey check your gambling diary, if you have one, and from what I've read on here the profit/loss statements from the casino on table games can hardly be trusted. So you're supposed to write down the table number you're at, how much your buy-in was, what your color-up was, and the net win/loss on that table (session/daily). So I'm guessing they just add up every table you won on, disregard every table you lost on, and tax you on the winning total if it's high enough. So you win $100K on the winning tables, lose $120K on the losing tables, but the state charges you tax on the $100K you won on the winning tables and tells you they won't hear about your losses.
I don't know what's funnier: Reading about win goals and stop losses or reading that you guys have to account for tax on your winnings. $;o)
