Shoot Holes in My Craps Game

For me, having a strategy and sticking to it is the only way for ME to play craps. I've heard it all before that no system in history is a constant winner......and yes, I've done the math any my system falls right about in line with what I'd expect. I lose it all sometimes, and double and triple up others. This is due to the roll of the dice and not any wizardry in my system.

What I'm asking for is opinions and suggestions to my strategy. I'm going to lay it out, explain why I do it, and then give a couple questions at the bottom that I've been considering. I've done a lot of "thought" on all of this and have played craps this way for 4 years or so, but haven't really taken the time to get it down to an exact mathematical calculation.

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Most of my tables are $15 minimum (so all bets here are using this assumption)
Usually anywhere from a $400-$700 buy in.

The entire idea/premise here is that there is a good possibility of someone hitting two numbers on any given roll before "Seven Out". If a minimum of two inside numbers are hit, I'm guaranteed a profit.
Combined, the 5, 6, 8, 9 have 18 dice combinations to win vs 6 combination ways to lose and 12 ways that are neutral.

Bets are as follows:
Minimum on the pass line and double the table minimum to place $132 inside "off on the come out roll"

When the point is set if it is the 5/6/8/9, I take that place bet and slide it back to my pass line odds. (I understand that max odds behind the pass line is the best way to play, but I don't really have the bankroll to 3-4-5x's a $15 bet. So I'm usually sitting at 2x odds.)

From the established point, I hit any two numbers and take all bets (including pass line odds) down to the table minimum.
*Assuming the point is 5 - I have $15 pass, $30 odds and $102 placed for a total of $147.
*Two hits on any number (lets say one is the 6 and one is the 5) would get me $42 and $15/$45 for a total of $102 winnings.
**Assume 5 comes out again as the next point. I now go down to table minimum $18(6), $18(8), $15(9), $15 pass, $15 odds. $81 on the table.

If the next number is a "seven out" I will have won $21 ($102 winnings minus the $81 laying on the table). And move on to the next roll.
*If the point is NOT one of the two numbers hit, the strategy stays the same coming down to the table minimum, but I will have netted only $3 profit.
*Conversely, if the point is hit on both numbers I will net a $39 profit.

If the point is 4 or 10 either on the initial come out roll, or on any subsequent rolls, I stay exactly the same (I don't like this happening) and throw a $5 chip as odds behind the pass line.....just because I feel like I need to lay some odds.

From the table minimum bets, I will take one complete winning for my tray and then fully press the next number (with no maximum to the place amount, I have hit the table max bet a few times)


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Yes this can be a "slow" system, but it can also be extremely quick to rack up your tray.
People call me stupid for coming down after the second hit. But that usually follows by the third roll "seven out". Yes, I cringe when 5-6-7 numbers are rolled wondering "what if I just kept it up". But again, it's a system and I've decided this is the way that "I" play, so I shrug it off.

Things that I have struggled with:
1) Playing the pass line at all. I'd almost rather just place the inside bets and forget about the pass line because I don't usually do max odds. I feel like I get burned more often than not when the point is 4 or 10, because to me, it's just another $20 out on the table that potentially messes up my two hits and down strategy.

2) Understanding that placing the 5 and 9 aren't really all that advantageous, I have thought about moving over to come bets, but three things keep me from doing this.
A) Not having control over where the come bet goes (I hate the 4 and 10)
B) "Giving away" that first hit of a number. I'd rather get paid on every hit (yes, I fully understand the advantage of the 7/11 on the come bet's come out roll). and C) I don't fully understand what happens when a come bet hits on a number you've already placed, where does the place bet go I assume you just take it down?

3) I've seriously thought about having my place bets "working" on the come out roll. More often than not, it seems that the come out roll is one of the inside numbers, and I'm practically giving away $42 every time I'm not working. Has someone done the math on place bets working vs not working on the come out roll?

Again, EVERY THROW OF THE DICE I have played craps this way for about 4 years, so changing anything would probably confuse the hell out of me, but I'm willing to listen to suggestions. Anything other than "you're stupid, stop doing what you're doing and go home!"

Cheers!

The only way that I ever deviate from my strategy, is that I will initially go $154 inside, not working on the come out roll. This pays $49 (or two greens for a white). And still after two hits, I come back down to $66 inside, or the combination that equates to minimum bets on each inside, and then cash in/press from there.

Your strategy is just as good as every other. You will lose in the long run, but if you're having fun doing it, then it's great.

Play what you can afford to lose and have fun.


ZCore13

Quote: DialedN07

3) I've seriously thought about having my place bets "working" on the come out roll. More often than not, it seems that the come out roll is one of the inside numbers, and I'm practically giving away $42 every time I'm not working. Has someone done the math on place bets working vs not working on the come out roll?

I have done the math and it favors calling place bets off on every roll, including the come out roll.

Quote: sodawater

I have done the math and it favors calling place bets off on every roll, including the come out roll.

Lol. I hear ya! Or in other words "don't place bets"
Is that what you're saying? Or it actually sounds like "don't play craps"

Some dealers will give you shit for constantly taking your bets down, it's a decent amount of work for them especially at a crowded table. If you've been playing it this long, then fine, I've seen much worse, but it is worth mentioning. I, personally, couldn't miss out on that long roll, but there's nothing inherently stupid about this strategy. If it keeps your variance in a place you're comfortable with, continue doing so.

Keep betting the pass line. And max your damn odds. This is the best bet you'll be getting all day.

Keep your bets off on the come out. If you're getting any kind of comp, this is free money (come bets would be a different story).

What do you hate about the 4 and 10? You lose 1/3 of the money vs placing the 5 and 9. This is something worth getting over. Yes, it will increase your variance and doesn't play as well with your coming down strategy... but I seriously urge you to reconsider if you can buy it for 20-25 and only pay $1 on a win.

Instead of regressing the place bets and odds to minimum, consider taking everything down after two hits until the point is resolved.

you could always go 2 units (30,36,36,30)
two hits would pay $84 pull back to (15,18,18,15) $66 leaving $18 profit
next hit pick up the 4 or 10 and then press, take, press, take. Then press 1 unit etc keeps it going up Keeps all the numbers covered cash coming in and you don't miss a long roll

If you must play craps and you live in a location with lots of different casinos, I suggest casino hopping and learning who gives what for what kind of action. I know SLS was giving some good free bets(50 to 100 a week for a while) I was mostly bet green action for about an hour. I did make one big bet at the end.

This was a while ago so I have no clue what they are up to on craps nowadays.

Tropicana LV sent good offers, mostly in the form of slot tournaments with guaranteed free play and they rated odds at one time.

I have no doubt if done right it would be REAL +EV in AC and Vegas.

I'm surprised there isn't a group of craps players who share how much action they are giving and what kind of offers they are getting. Actully, I'm not surprised, since most craps players are not looking for real value, they are just trying to find some fancy system that can outperform the math.

Quote: ahiromu

Some dealers will give you shit for constantly taking your bets down, it's a decent amount of work for them especially at a crowded table. If you've been playing it this long, then fine, I've seen much worse, but it is worth mentioning. I, personally, couldn't miss out on that long roll, but there's nothing inherently stupid about this strategy. If it keeps your variance in a place you're comfortable with, continue doing so.

Keep betting the pass line. And max your damn odds. This is the best bet you'll be getting all day.

Keep your bets off on the come out. If you're getting any kind of comp, this is free money (come bets would be a different story).

What do you hate about the 4 and 10? You lose 1/3 of the money vs placing the 5 and 9. This is something worth getting over. Yes, it will increase your variance and doesn't play as well with your coming down strategy... but I seriously urge you to reconsider if you can buy it for 20-25 and only pay $1 on a win.

All good points. Thanks!

Dealers- I don't constantly take bets down. Only once per shooter. From there I only press up.
I also ALWAYS place dealer bets after the third number hits. Sometimes before. Since I do EXACTLY the same thing on every shooters, the crew usually figures it out really quick.

Agree with the pass line and max odds. I'm just not really rolling in cash and getting it up to over $200 of my own money on the first roll of the dice makes me a bit uncomfortable. (This is where I wish I was in Vegas or AC with a $5 or $10 table.)

As far as place bets off on the come out, I still don't get the logic of why I can risk it on the point roll, but it's no longer a good bet on the come out? Odds stay the same. (Just playing devils advocate)

I hate the 4 and 10 mostly because it ruins my "double the minimum and then come down strategy. The math no longer works, and youd have to stay up 3 or 4 hits before coming down to guarantee a profit. Also due to the likelihood of them actually being rolled. Sure the payout is better, but it still tilts my overall bet average more-so to the house.

Quote: MrV

Instead of regressing the place bets and odds to minimum, consider taking everything down after two hits until the point is resolved.

I can certainly understand this logic, but I get antsy when there is zero action on the table. And a few non point inside hits would make me want to walk out. I feel better staying up, even if it means giving some $ back on a seven.

Quote: troopscott

you could always go 2 units (30,36,36,30)
two hits would pay $84 pull back to (15,18,18,15) $66 leaving $18 profit
next hit pick up the 4 or 10 and then press, take, press, take. Then press 1 unit etc keeps it going up Keeps all the numbers covered cash coming in and you don't miss a long roll

I'm just as superstitious as the next guy and even though there is ZERO TRUTH to it, I feel like anytime I get a wild hair and up the odds on the 4 or 10 or get drunk and place it for a few bucks I lose everything.

Again, does not make sense, but I stay away if I can.

It's Awesome. I Love It

Just reading your few posts it seems like you have fun with your system. You have it figured out that you will more likely lose than win. But do not fear the loss. When I play I generally play pass line with some odds, and continuous come bets also with odds. I love the long rolls with the repeated "off and on" calls by the dealer. I play at a slight disadvantage considering my total amount wagered. The price is worth the fun.

Quote: DialedN07

As far as place bets off on the come out, I still don't get the logic of why I can risk it on the point roll, but it's no longer a good bet on the come out? Odds stay the same. (Just playing devils advocate)

The core concept is that every minute you are at the table, you are earning comps and losing to the HE (your expected loss). If you leave your bets off on the come out, the house doesn't record this fact (yet). So let's say 10% of your time involves a come out roll. If you leave your bets on, your expected loss remains during this 10% of time. If you take your bets off during this time, they still track you as betting $100/hr or whatever, but you aren't actually risking money. One could argue that during the come out, you are actually making money. Does that make sense? Truth be told, I wouldn't be surprised if many places consider this fact when making their rolls/hr figure for comp reasons.

Nothing you are doing is a "good bet" (in this narrow diatribe, I'm defining "good bet" as having an advantage since that's how you seem to have used it there). You never have an advantage except, maybe, when your bets are turned off on the come out and you're still earning comps. Some places will track bathroom breaks for this reason, because people will "go to the bathroom" for a half an hour and try to milk comps. Same concept, but turning off your bets on the come out is something that they won't worry about. This isn't a do or die thing and I think 10% is generous with regards to time waiting for a point to be established.

It's also better for variance reasons (decreasing variance in craps is usually a positive imo).

Quote: AxelWolf

If you must play craps

Disdainful, are we?

so first roll is point, seven out....then second roll is point seven out......then the third roll you get your two hits and down and watch the guy rolls for 45 minutes and this is a good strategy?????????

Quote: ahiromu

.. Same concept, but turning off your bets on the come out is something that they won't worry about. ..

Don't most places automatically turn off place bets for the co?

Quote: MrV

Disdainful, are we?

Ya, it seems that way. Probably due to all the sockpuppets who come up with all kinds of nonsense regarding craps and other non-beatable games. It always starts off with the same spiel "I know ______ is -EV BUT.."

It almost always progresses into more than, "I'm just playing to have fun and I know you can't beat the game."

Nothing wrong with playing -EV games, assuming you can afford to do so, even if you can't, I guess it's your business.

I just can't figure out why it's so hard for people to understand you can't beat the games straight up. You can get lucky for a long time but that's all it is...luck/variance.

I could/should just ignore it all, but there are many things I could/should do, but I don't.

Quote: petroglyph

Don't most places automatically turn off place bets for the co?

By "they wont worry about [it]" I meant that they won't give you derogatory marks on your rating. Yes, as far as I know all of those bets are turned off aside from lays (little experience with that).

Quote: ontariodealer

so first roll is point, seven en second roll is point seven en the third roll you get your two hits and down and watch the guy rolls for 45 minutes and this is a good strategy?????????

I would be participating in the 45 minute roll.
I'm not two hits and down. I'm two hits and down to table min, then press up from there. Every single roll of the dice I'm giving action. 45 min roll is the best thing that could happen here.

Axel, thanks for clarifying; I had assumed you were "looking down your nose" at craps players.

You know, the old "AP vs. Ploppy" thing.

Most of us gamble for fun; any profit is a bonus.

Question: I wonder whether you are able to enjoy gambling as much as a recreational player can?

Me, I'm just pissing away pin money; for you it's your livelihood.

Big difference, methinks.

Can you explain your system again in simpler terms? I think I kinda understand it, but a refresher would be most helpful. Thanks.

Quote: RS

Can you explain your system again in simpler terms? I think I kinda understand it, but a refresher would be most helpful. Thanks.

Sarcasm?

Quote: DialedN07

Sarcasm?

What? No. Your posts just seem fairly long and a bit all over the place, IMO. I have a grasp on what you’re trying to do but doesn’t make complete sense.

Quote: RS

What? No. Your posts just seem fairly long and a bit all over the place, IMO. I have a grasp on what you’re trying to do but doesn’t make complete sense.

I have a tendency to turn 20 seconds into 2 minutes. Sorry about that.

Pass line bet at table minimum

Inside bets at double table minimum

If point is an inside number, that amt goes to pass line odds

Hit any of MY two numbers, then take all bets down to minimums (after 2 numbers, there is no way to "lose")

From here, keep one winning, and fully press the next.

Keep going until seven out, or you reach table max.

Playing this way, have you ever reached table max while pressing?

Quote: MrV

Axel, thanks for clarifying; I had assumed you were "looking down your nose" at craps players.

You know, the old "AP vs. Ploppy" thing.

Most of us gamble for fun; any profit is a bonus.

Question: I wonder whether you are able to enjoy gambling as much as a recreational player can?

Me, I'm just pissing away pin money; for you it's your livelihood.

Big difference, methinks.

Sure I can, It depends on the situation. If there is a juicy promotion or something, I love it.
Some VP games can be fun to play. If I have to play for a long while running coin, stuck on a progressive, on the basic games I just want to get done with it. Even games like super times pay boar me.

Since just about everyone knows about the Plaza promotion, I will use that as an example. I was there the entire time and then some, and I enjoyed every second of that play.

Whenever there's a good slot promo or slot bonus game I enjoy playing.

About the only time I like to watch sports is if I have a bet on it.

You should see me on some of the skill games, I'm like a kid playing a Video game whenever I lose a turn or win a level.

I enjoy playing poker for fun and end up drinking too much.

I will play -EV games from time to time, especially if there's a social thing.

I don't ever think to myself, I wish I was at the casino playing. If there was suddenly no way to AP anything, I would rarely ever go to a casino.

I hate losing way more than I enjoy winning.

Varmenti?

If you're taking only 2x odds behind the pass line then, I think it would be better to not play the pass line at all. Take that $15+$30odds and buy the 4 and 10 for $20.

Speaking of buying the 4 and the 10:

At the tables I play at I can buy either of them for $25 by paying a buck up front.

I wonder whether casinos will allow a player to buy both numbers for $15 each by paying only a buck up front, total?

Quote: DialedN07

For me, having a strategy and sticking to it is the only way for ME to play craps!

Same here, but I seem to have trouble explaining my strategy to the dice,.

Your comment has two components. Having a strategy and sticking to it. Having a strategy is good; sticking to it can be expensive.

The cheapest bet on the table is the Odds Bet, its price is having a line bet at 1.44 percent or something like that.

The next cheapest bet is a line bet.

If you want to CHOOSE the number then that's a Place Bet and you have to PAY for the right to choose.

If you do choose a number but want True Odds, that is a Buy Bet and you have to PAY for that right also.

Come bets are cheaper than place bets. Always have been, always will be. Can you make money on solely place bets? Heck you can make money solely on Big Red if you are lucky. Just don't plan on it too often.

Quote: FleaStiff

Same here, but I seem to have trouble explaining my strategy to the dice,.

Your comment has two components. Having a strategy and sticking to it. Having a strategy is good; sticking to it can be expensive.

The cheapest bet on the table is the Odds Bet, its price is having a line bet at 1.44 percent or something like that.

The next cheapest bet is a line bet.

If you want to CHOOSE the number then that's a Place Bet and you have to PAY for the right to choose.

If you do choose a number but want True Odds, that is a Buy Bet and you have to PAY for that right also.

Come bets are cheaper than place bets. Always have been, always will be. Can you make money on solely place bets? Heck you can make money solely on Big Red if you are lucky. Just don't plan on it too often.

the problem with come bets is the shooter has to hit it twice for you to get paid and I can hit it first time and be at a profit point and press or keep and be ahead if the 7 comes before the 2nd hit

Quote: troopscott

the problem with come bets is the shooter has to hit it twice for you to get paid and I can hit it first time and be at a profit point and press or keep and be ahead if the 7 comes before the 2nd hit

Yes, those are the rules and that is how the game is played.
Your Place Bet CAN pay off right out of the gate and perhaps it can KEEP paying off and maybe, just maybe you will do well. Ofcourse there can be Point/SevenOut too wherein your place bet falls immediately.
The differences are small... so you can play any bet you truly LIKE to play.

That is the beauty of choosing either Right Side or Wrong Side: Math types split hairs but in reality one tip to the waitress and any financial difference evaporates. A few sips of that drink she brought you and and you don't really notice any difference.

That is why it is the old carney call " You pays your money and you takes your chance". If you like place bets, go for it.

Quote: rainman

Varmenti?

That was my first thought too.

Quote: OnceDear

That was my first thought too.

it's everybody's first thought when we get a new member posting about Craps. If Varmenti it is , he is cleverly changing his persona somewhat with each new manifestation. Although there is reason to suspect Varmenti is up to just that, the system that is advocated here is not very Varmeni-like so I am voting for "not Varmenti"

Quote: troopscott

the problem with come bets is the shooter has to hit it twice

same as the pass line

Quote:

... I can hit it first time and be at a profit point and press or keep ...

You can skip the pass line and essentially play Craps just by betting on the numbers you like and not get stuck with any you don't like. But only the 6 and 8 have a similar HE, and only line and come bets allow free odds bets to be added.

So I would say your best use of your bankroll from the perspective of "bets placed simultaneously" is to first bet on the pass line [or DP], then add odds, then make come bets [or DCs] [although this takes steps and is not exactly simultaneous]. If you still need more in action at that point then place the 6 and 8 too [only].

Quote: odiousgambit

the system that is advocated here is not very Varmeni-like so I am voting for "not Varmenti"

Tee Hee. I'm thinking side bet :o)

Zero to do with my strategy and all to do with the rolls of the dice. But went to MGM National Harbor last night and left with $1675 on a $500 buy in ($25 table).

Hit a $50 on black on roulette table on the way out just to test the luck. Was a pretty good 2 hrs 20 minutes.

Quote: FleaStiff

Come bets are cheaper than place bets. Always have been, always will be. Can you make money on solely place bets? Heck you can make money solely on Big Red if you are lucky. Just don't plan on it too often.

This is what I keep trying to convince myself..

Scenario
Avg says seven comes out once per 6 rolls.

So random. Roll is
4 8 8 6 11 6

In this case, I'm still ahead by my strategy. It takes a huge roll to bridge the gap between missing out on that first number not getting paid and true odds being paid on a come bet.

Unless I bet more than i'm comfortable by maxing come bet odds, I can't get it to make sense for me

I don't think $700 buy in would cut it. Probably needs to buy in at $2000.

Quote: alphastorm

I don't think $700 buy in would cut it. Probably needs to buy in at $2000.

I normally won't carry that much with me in the casino. But I usually have my ATM card, but have helped myself by making my max withdrawal per day to limit fraud (and casino withdrawals! lol)
I'm going back this week (Thursday and Friday).
I'm pretty sure I'm going to TRY place 6 and 8, and then do two come bets with odds going up to what my bets normally are (not even close to max odds). When I say "pretty sure" it might mean, maybe not. But I've been tossing the idea around for awhile, and it's about time I try it. I just wish I could find a $5 table to try out a new strategy on instead of a 15 or 25!

Where are you from that only has $15 tables. I've traveled throughout the U.S. and I find $10 tables easily.

So here is my simple minded thinking on the place vs the come bet.

Lets look at the 5 or 9.
If I'm only betting double the table minimum (lets say $25 table for easier math).

PlaceBets:
Hit 5 $50 pays $70
Hit 9 $50 pays $70
(come down to $25 bets)
Hit 5 pays $35
Hit 8 pays $35 but I full press, so only rack $5
SEVEN OUT
*I racked $180, but lost $110 on the seven out. Profit $70
**I'd say this constitutes a common roll**
(you can also assume that some 2,4,10,11's were rolled, but since they don't affect my play, I didn't put them in my example)

Same roll with Come Bet Assuming only a place 6 and 8 to start.
Hit 5 ($25 come bet goes to the 5) Take $26 odds on the 5
Hit 9 ($25 come bet goes to the 9) Take $26 odds on the 9
Hit 5 pays even money on the $25 and true odds on the odds. $25 + $39 = $64 (odds come down, but go back up once point is established)
Hit 6 pays $70 (because I haven't taken down the bets yet)
Take my place 6/8 bets down to $30 each
SEVEN OUT
I racked $134 and lost $162 on the seven out, because it doesn't make sense to take down the odds on the Come Bet 5 and 9.
Here I'm Down $32 even though 4 numbers hit.


Can someone show me at what point the come bets actually start making sense for my general type of play?
I'm willing to adjust my play slightly for a slight fraction of a % decrease in HE, but I don't have the bankroll to go triple odds.

Quote: alphastorm

Where are you from that only has $15 tables. I've traveled throughout the U.S. and I find $10 tables easily.

I live in central North Carolina. Closest casino is MGM National Harbor (Washington DC). PS. There are NO $15 TABLES THERE except on Sunday afternoons.
Next closest is in Baltimore, MD Horseshoe. $15 is the lowest I've ever seen there. They ALWAYS have a $15 table, but it's always slammed packed, elbow to elbow, and is usually a rowdy group.
I've heard they have a bubble machine at Maryland Live! (don't know the minimums) but usually go to Horseshoe because I have a Total Rewards Card.

Cherokee is in NC, but is 6.5 hours away from me which is actually longer than DC and Baltimore if you can believe it. I haven't been there in a very long time, and last I heard, I don't know if they even had craps. They had an electronic version of blackjack with a live dealer the last time I went (maybe 4-5 years ago).

Quote: DialedN07

I live in central North Carolina. Closest casino is MGM National Harbor (Washington DC). PS. There are NO $15 TABLES THERE except on Sunday afternoons.
Next closest is in Baltimore, MD Horeshoe. $15 is the lowest I've ever seen there. They ALWAYS have a $15 table, but it's always slammed packed, elbow to elbow, and is usually a rowdy group.
I've heard they have a bubble machine at Maryland Live! (don't know the minimums) but usually go to Horseshoe because I have a Total Rewards Card.

Cherokee is in NC, but is 6.5 hours away from me which is actually longer than DC and Baltimore if you can believe it. I haven't been there in a very long time, and last I heard, I don't know if they even had craps. They had an electronic version of blackjack with a live dealer.

Cherokee has a very nice craps game, several tables of it. The new one, a little closer to Atlanta, does as well. We played at both in August. Mins were $10 at night, $5 during the day. Both places have hotels as well.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Cherokee has a very nice craps game, several tables of it. The new one, a little closer to Atlanta, does as well. We played at both in August. Mins were $10 at night, $5 during the day. Both places have hotels as well.

Sounds appealing! I'd have to make a special trip up that way. I travel for business and have a contract in DC and one in Baltimore, but get occasional promos for bus trips to and from Cherokee.

When you say closer to Atlanta, are you still talking in NC? Or is it in GA?

I've seen $5 tables at MD live.

Quote: DialedN07

Sounds appealing! I'd have to make a special trip up that way. I travel for business and have a contract in DC and one in Baltimore, but get occasional promos for bus trips to and from Cherokee.

When you say closer to Atlanta, are you still talking in NC? Or is it in GA?

Cherokee is in NC.