Blackjack
Don't quote me, just sparking the convo, but I thought it was for a betting system / money management system, and against any HE casino game? i.e. something simple like counting cards doesn't qualify because it's not a betting/money system.Quote: dwight56Does the Wizard still have an offer for a system that can beat blackjack and if so how is it tested and what is the rules ect.?
I still remember maybe 9 or 10 years ago someone got to like the 800,000th hand in blackjack and his money management system was still profitable. I’ve always wondered what that system was. Eventually it failed but I still thought that was impressive
Quote: dwight56This is not card counting
If you lay out the details of what it IS we can give you an answer. Telling us what it is not doesn't help much.
Quote: dwight56I am still testing it just by playing it after 1500 hands which I know is nothing. betting min 10 max 50 it is up 2900, I figure it will fail, but works good thus far, do you know of a program that it could be tried on?
What is causing you to alter your bets? If it is what cards have been removed from the deck, then that is 'card counting'. The Wiz would agree that BJ can be beat by such a strategy, and there are many who post here who make a living doing so.
Quote: SOOPOOWhat is causing you to alter your bets? If it is what cards have been removed from the deck, then that is 'card counting'. The Wiz would agree that BJ can be beat by such a strategy, and there are many who post here who make a living doing so.
Well, up to you, but if you tell us the specifics we can usually just do the EV math and figure out where it would be in 500k hands, or whatever. IF needed a SIM could be done, but that's usually not necessary =).Quote: dwight56It is not based off the count, I have counted cards for over a year now, with winning results however pretty slim, I was just experimenting and trying different things and stumbled onto this, I am in no way saying it is a winner, just wish I could simulate it out over thousands of hands and see the results.
A simulation is always, and I repeat always, possible. If you want some preliminary math in regards to HE and EV then post what you're doing. Otherwise, have fun I suppose.Quote: dwight56well if you just do the math of HE vs. either a 10 dollar bet or a 50 it will come up a looser, and I am not sure it can be simulated either. Counting is not used and nor is it a progression, still testing it on a phone ap, with 6 deck game. now somehow up to +3100, just waiting for the crash.
Just off the top of my head, here's an alternative. We all know the EV for doubling hands with 9, 10 or 11 is massive, with EVs in the 50-60% against several dealer upcards and around 20-30% against other dealer upcards, so my theory is what if you only counted the middle cards such as the 4s, 5s, 6s as -1 and everything else as +1 or maybe even count the 10s as 0. Wouldnt this cause massive doubling opportunities and result in a much higher edge than 1 to 1.5%?
Can someone sim this and PM me?
A) Get very little more doubles.
B) Have to play all counts of the shoe in reference to something like Hi/Low.
C) A big part of our BJ edge even "regular" counting is from blackjacks, doubles, and splits...
Yeah, kinda forgot to mention that part too lol. You need face cards for your doubles and for dealers to bust =).Quote: IbeatyouracesDoubling with a shoe full of 4-6 sounds like disaster. You'll constantly get lame totals while dealers make good hands.
Having a TC of +5 or 6 with traditional counting doesnt exactly make the shoe as rich as you think anyway. You only have 5 or 6 bigger cards per deck and still get many 'lame' doubles.
You also would be counting the 10s and Aces as 0 so it doesnt exactly mean ill get 'lame' doubles with a pack rich in 4, 5s, and 6s because the 10s and Aces wont be counted. Dealers also dont bust much more than you think with a traditional high count. The reason being because they have many more 10s as their upcard. The bust rate only imcreases about 3% for each upcard with a TC of +5 and the bust rate maxes out at around 45% against the dealer upcard of 5. The rest of the bust rates with a TC of +5 is around 37-44%.
Id tag the cards something like this.
2= +1
3= +1
4= -1
5= -1
6= -1
7= +1
8= 0
9= 0
10s = 0
A = 0
You then would also have to generate different indices for your hit/stand decisions due to the surplus of 4s, 5s, and 6s.
Quote: dwight56Interesting how my thread has gone to a discussion on counting
Would you prefer it got no response?
Quote: ZenKinGIve always been of the mindset that there has to be and will eventually be a better way to play blackjack that yields a bigger edge.
Just off the top of my head, here's an alternative. We all know the EV for doubling hands with 9, 10 or 11 is massive, with EVs in the 50-60% against several dealer upcards and around 20-30% against other dealer upcards, so my theory is what if you only counted the middle cards such as the 4s, 5s, 6s as -1 and everything else as +1 or maybe even count the 10s as 0. Wouldnt this cause massive doubling opportunities and result in a much higher edge than 1 to 1.5%?
Can someone sim this and PM me?
There is poster on Norm's site called Tarzan,he basically keeps buckets of different groupings of cards I believe its' a 3 or 4 column count.
Anyeays they ran sims on it and it performed similar to hi opt 2.
You will not get bigger edges in bj by using a specialized count.
Its been tried by many before.
Quote: dwight56If I feel it is worth looking into I will post it, as for now I will keep my trial going and possibly save a lot of ridicule. Anyway I am not sure it can be done on a simulator. It has nothing at all to do with counting or progressing or the result of the previous hand whether won or lost. It is based entirely off the dealers hand.
??
If it can be done on a live game, it can simulated.
Quote: dwight56If I feel it is worth looking into I will post it, as for now I will keep my trial going and possibly save a lot of ridicule. Anyway I am not sure it can be done on a simulator. It has nothing at all to do with counting or progressing or the result of the previous hand whether won or lost. It is based entirely off the dealers hand.
How could something not be done on a simulator ?
Well, we tried to engage with you about your system, but you clearly don't want to share anything about your system... so we have nothing left to do. We can't run math, sims, nothing other than wait for your next post either saying "still up!" or "finally died!" but either way we have nothing else to discuss since we don't know what your system is.Quote: dwight56Interesting how my thread has gone to a discussion on counting
Quote: dwight56Well as we all know there is no system that can overcome the house edge (or that has been discovered). I can promise you that you can mathematically tear it apart in no time, it has just worked so far which I know means nothing, its just fun to experiment. I will say though that the stats as of yesterday were 1560 hands, win 44.4% loses 46.5% which is better than average BJ s 4.6% doubles won 57% also a little better than normal BR is plus 3100.00
Well...there is no such thing as alternative math. It either works or it doesn’t work.
I can almost guarantee that your results for 1560 hands not anything unusual.
Quote: HunterhillThere is poster on Norm's site called Tarzan,he basically keeps buckets of different groupings of cards I believe its' a 3 or 4 column count.
Anyeays they ran sims on it and it performed similar to hi opt 2.
You will not get bigger edges in bj by using a specialized count.
Its been tried by many before.
Im aware of the Tarzan Count and I criticized it years ago before any sims were run. I tried telling everyone that the Tarzan Count wont do anything in SHOE GAMES mainly because of the low frequency distribution of having a high surplus of a certain denomination as well as having a low deficit of a certain demomiation to make the results meaningful to increase the win rate. No one believed me until 2 years later when the sims proved my point.
What im talking about is completely different. Im not grouping or side counting any cards for playing efficiency. His count was created for playing efficiency and to make more accurate playing decisions. What Im trying to do is using these middle cards of 4,5, and 6 to take advantage of more doubling opportunities. As we know doubling 10 and 11 in blackjack has a massive EV of 20-60%, so my theory is to count the 4,5,6 as the main cards that you want in play and to count them as -1. This is just an idea off the top of my head. Not sure it would work, but in theory it makes sense.
Quote: ZenKinGWhat Im trying to do is using these middle cards of 4,5, and 6 to take advantage of more doubling opportunities. As we know doubling 10 and 11 in blackjack has a massive EV of 20-60%, so my theory is to count the 4,5,6 as the main cards that you want in play and to count them as -1. This is just an idea off the top of my head. Not sure it would work, but in theory it makes sense.
The 4s, 5s and 6s are no worse than the 2s and 3s when Doubling a 10 (or 11). The place where they are truly different is when you have a soft 18 and may want to Double or Split as opposed to STAND.
Quote: gordonm888The 4s, 5s and 6s are no worse than the 2s and 3s when Doubling a 10 (or 11). The place where they are truly different is when you have a soft 18 and may want to Double or Split as opposed to STAND.
My idea is because any combination total of 4, 5, or 6 will = 9, 10, or 11, which will create a lot more doubling opportunities.
Quote: ZenKinGIm aware of the Tarzan Count and I criticized it years ago before any sims were run. I tried telling everyone that the Tarzan Count wont do anything in SHOE GAMES mainly because of the low frequency distribution of having a high surplus of a certain denomination as well as having a low deficit of a certain demomiation to make the results meaningful to increase the win rate. No one believed me until 2 years later when the sims proved my point.
What im talking about is completely different. Im not grouping or side counting any cards for playing efficiency. His count was created for playing efficiency and to make more accurate playing decisions. What Im trying to do is using these middle cards of 4,5, and 6 to take advantage of more doubling opportunities. As we know doubling 10 and 11 in blackjack has a massive EV of 20-60%, so my theory is to count the 4,5,6 as the main cards that you want in play and to count them as -1. This is just an idea off the top of my head. Not sure it would work, but in theory it makes sense.
I have often thought a count such as you are describing could be useful to exploit Freebet BJ similar to the way one uses the HiLo for bet fluctuation. Do you have any thoughts on that?
Quote: ZenKinGMy idea is because any combination total of 4, 5, or 6 will = 9, 10, or 11, which will create a lot more doubling opportunities.
But then you will get more 4s,5s and6s on your double downs and and the dealer will not bust as often.
Quote: HunterhillBut then you will get more 4s,5s and6s on your double downs and and the dealer will not bust as often.
Dealer doesnt bust that often anyway contrary to popular belief. Without amy information regarding the count, the dealer busts 35-42% of the time. With a TC of +5 it goes up to around 37-45% of the time. 10 value cards also wouldnt be counted, it would be tagged as 0, so the 10s wouldnt always be depleted.
Quote: MaxPenI have often thought a count such as you are describing could be useful to exploit Freebet BJ similar to the way one uses the HiLo for bet fluctuation. Do you have any thoughts on that?
I never studied any other blackjack variant really. I dipped a bit into spanish 21 and i kno that game can be beat handidly with specialized counts due to the unique multiple card payoffs, but freebet blackjack, not sure would have to take a look.
Okay, let us know when you're at 3k hands then I guess =).Quote: dwight56I am still testing this system, only got to play one shoe last night after 1600 hands it is up 3695, it has its ups and downs of coarse and has backed up 1000 two times, I am going to play it on up to 3000 hands or so and see where it is and then make up my mind about posting it, then you guys can rip and tear away, laugh and hee haw, and I will take the ridicule
4-4? 6-6? These are good doubles?Quote: ZenKinGMy idea is because any combination total of 4, 5, or 6 will = 9, 10, or 11, which will create a lot more doubling opportunities.
Quote: Romes4-4? 6-6? These are good doubles?
Thought about that after posting that you could get the same card in your hand. Don't think it will happen that often though to make a difference. Besides those will turn into some good splitting opportunities that can lead to a good double.
It's set up to remove variance... which means you must actually having an edge in the game, or a "winning" system (which is yet to be seen). Any system that is a true "winner" would have no problem beating the challenge. For example, take card counting... over 200k you'll certainly reach N0 and prove that counting works. In fact, this has been simulated over and over and over and over and over again. It NEVER doesn't beat the game, because you have a REAL mathematical edge when counting properly.Quote: dwight56Thanks for that looks like they want to make it a bet and run 200,000 hands and give you a small bankroll and if you loose you pay them, believe I will continue to play with this and if it works it will make money anyway, thanks again.
I'm just trying to keep it so that anyone reading the forums that is uneducated in the field of gambling does not try something they read somewhere works for someone that one time. I'm not trying to be rude to you or your system... just wish you wouldn't have posted at all until you tested for 100k hands and had a proven winner or loser, only because you won't share any details for us to mathematically analyze it.Quote: dwight56... anyway not hear to argue about card counting and not saying I have a winning system just saying it works so far for me...
Martingale works great, until it doesn't... like most systems. So if someone read a thread about martingale saying "I'm up $X after 3k spins!!!" they'd probably go lose money because they read that and think it's a winning system, when it's not.
Quote: dwight56With a 5 dollar unit and a 5000 bankroll card counting could get knocked out. And that is the offer I saw. At least spreading 5-80 could, anyway not hear to argue about card counting and not saying I have a winning system just saying it works so far for me, and like I said it is not card counting nor progressive betting, and there is no mathematical reason for it to work, so thanks Romes
A man jumps off the Empire State Building. As he passes the 40th floor, his phone rings. As he passes the 20th floor, he answers. Asked how he is doing, he replies So far, So good as he passes the 3rd floor.
Quote: dwight56Thanks for your vode of confidence, I am not discrediting card counting at all, I have done it for the last year, and agree it will work in the loooong run, but 7,8 10 dollars an hour for the smaller player it is not worth the effort and heat, and for some they loose it all anyway.
Try a sign on the bridges. Why lie i need hookers and weed. Csn probably make more thsn $7 an hour
Quote: dwight56Thanks for your vode of confidence, I am not discrediting card counting at all, I have done it for the last year, and agree it will work in the loooong run, but 7,8 10 dollars an hour for the smaller player it is not worth the effort and heat, and for some they loose it all anyway.
It all depends on your circumstances. If you are retired, sitting around playing BJ or VP for $10 an hour isn't the worse way to spend ten or fifteen hours a week.
