Thread Rating:

GamecoxJax
GamecoxJax
Joined: Jan 5, 2016
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 22
March 1st, 2018 at 4:38:43 AM permalink
Ok, the title is perhaps leaning towards mis-leading. Call it click-bait if you will.

Of course it can lose. They all can lose. That said, with 2 different craps apps, and WOO's own craps simulator... I have had 0 sessions of 10 or more shooters end in a loss. I have had 100 sessions as of this morning. All have finished up 12+ units after 10 or more shooters.

Now, its no secret playing the Don't is the best statistical edge. Add odds, and you have one of the best bets in a casino.

So, what about doing it my way?

$10 DP

Point is 4/5/9/10 you place full odds of $60

Point is 6/8 no odds

Place $12 on 6 and 8, unless one is the point, then just place the other.

Don't Come bet for $5 every roll

Every DC that is 4/5/9/10 you place full odds of $30

You continue until a 7 out.

So DC with full odds unless its 6/8

Only place 6/8 once

If hit, it has been hit with a DC and you pull down your place and $14 winnings


Ok, throw me to the wolves.....

(Disclaimer: I know all systems are long term losers. I am just looking for feedback as to how the odds may creep further into a player's favor with the single place bet on 6/8 and never putting odds on DP and DC 6/8)
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 304
  • Posts: 8372
Thanks for this post from:
GamecoxJax
March 1st, 2018 at 5:08:48 AM permalink
get wincraps, not expensive, so you can do millions of rolls

hundreds of rolls are next to meaningless

the 6 and 8 rightside or darkside either one, placing or laying them that is, [edit] will perform worse instead of better due to the principle that hedging one negative expectation bet with another -EV bet, while perhaps lowering variance, adds to expected loss.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
GamecoxJax
GamecoxJax
Joined: Jan 5, 2016
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 22
March 1st, 2018 at 5:19:28 AM permalink
I don't consider the Place 6/8 as a hedge. Just an opportunity to create value from the 2nd most likely outcome of a roll while playing DC and DP.

I think that's what my non math brain can't get past. Lowering variance vs expected loss. I see the variance diminish, but fail to understand that expected loss will always win out.

That said, anything can win short term, we all understand that as well.

I guess my 100 sessions aren't the infinite rolls that odds are based on, true.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 304
  • Posts: 8372
March 1st, 2018 at 5:47:51 AM permalink
Quote: GamecoxJax

Just an opportunity to create value from the 2nd most likely outcome of a roll while playing DC and DP.



it's probably a better move than "taking no action" on those numbers, though I haven't crunched the numbers
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
  • Threads: 27
  • Posts: 5490
March 1st, 2018 at 8:45:29 AM permalink
Why wouldn't you take odds on the 6 and 8 for your DP or DC? Mathematically they pay out the exact same in the long run as the 4, 10, 5, and 9... If I ever play craps I play the DP/DC and I love taking max odds on the 6/8 because you can make really good money there ($60 to win $50 instead of $60 to win $30). It's all relative...

p.s. The more -EV bets you make the more you're going to lose. So yes, the system as a whole is a loser, and to boot a better system would be to just play 1 DP number with odds. Then again, not playing the game at all has the best return =P. It's not bad, but the place 6 & 8 are kinda hedging since if you 7 out you win all the other bets but still LOSE these. Winning and losing at the same time is essentially hedging.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 2463
March 1st, 2018 at 10:58:04 AM permalink
Quote: GamecoxJax

So, what about doing it my way?

you have had a few 'my ways' in the past too
good luck!
Quote: GamecoxJax

Ok, throw me to the wolves.....

that never putting odds on the 6&8 hurts.

It wins the most when it wins over the outside odds
but of course no dark side player really likes to lose
it does that more ways
*****
Here are the 1st 100 shooters in the Zumma dice rolls (actual casino dice rolls)
I used WinCraps Classic...
was doing well until a 'hot shooter' showed up.

what will you do about that.
lots of repeating box numbers hit B4 the 7out.
shooter #gain / losscumulative
18484
21195
338133
4-9241
55495
6-491
721112
818130
9-5674
10-767
11-76-9
12-616-625
1389-536
14-111-647
15-106-753
1639-714
17-6-720
18-216-936
1931-905
20-156-1061
2131-1030
22129-901
23-26-927
24-101-1028
2579-949
26-51-1000
2713-987
28-146-1133
2989-1044
30-181-1225
3123-1202
3261-1141
33-77-1218
34-7-1225
35-5-1230
36-2-1232
3719-1213
3838-1175
3950-1125
4011-1114
41-116-1230
4213-1217
4321-1196
4418-1178
4566-1112
46109-1003
4746-957
48-114-1071
4919-1052
50-11-1063
5129-1034
5284-950
5353-897
5421-876
5548-828
56-21-849
57-52-901
5850-851
59-57-908
6019-889
6184-805
62-141-946
6336-910
6424-886
659-877
6611-866
67-17-883
6859-824
6978-746
70-22-768
7111-757
72-126-883
7379-804
7421-783
7599-684
76-17-701
77-156-857
78-71-928
79-76-1004
8049-955
8121-934
8254-880
83-7-887
84-11-898
8579-819
866-813
87-14-827
8811-816
89-221-1037
90-96-1133
91109-1024
92104-920
9318-902
94-656-1558
95-21-1579
9646-1533
97-211-1744
9874-1670
9994-1576
10031-1545
total >>-1545.


thanks for sharing

one or two shooters can really do a lot of session damage to the dpass and dcome bets
Sally
Last edited by: mustangsally on Mar 1, 2018
I Heart Vi Hart
RogerKint
RogerKint
Joined: Dec 5, 2011
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 1881
March 1st, 2018 at 11:09:18 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Why wouldn't you take odds on the 6 and 8 for your DP or DC? Mathematically they pay out the exact same in the long run as the 4, 10, 5, and 9... If I ever play craps I play the DP/DC and I love taking max odds on the 6/8 because you can make really good money there ($60 to win $50 instead of $60 to win $30). It's all relative...



Lay odds.

There was this guy on a cruise ship who made close to 20 k making a big don't pass bet with full odds and placing the 6 and 8. He would set the dice with 7s showing. I don't believe in dice control but, when he'd 7-out, I'd always pass the dice back. Eventually, I started doing the MustangSally (laying the 4 and 10). It stayed cold for soooo long.
100% risk of ruin
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
  • Threads: 105
  • Posts: 1636
March 1st, 2018 at 12:13:08 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

Why wouldn't you take odds on the 6 and 8 for your DP or DC? Mathematically they pay out the exact same in the long run as the 4, 10, 5, and 9... If I ever play craps I play the DP/DC and I love taking max odds on the 6/8 because you can make really good money there ($60 to win $50 instead of $60 to win $30). It's all relative..



Yes , it is all relative... so why would you rather lay odds on 6,8 vs 4,10 (eg..$60 to win $50 instead of $60 to win $30) when the probabilities of them winning all correlate respectively to their payout odds. You would imply that you can make more money by laying 6 and 8 vs laying 4 and 10 and a risk/reward basis ? Flawed.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
GamecoxJax
GamecoxJax
Joined: Jan 5, 2016
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 22
March 1st, 2018 at 12:34:00 PM permalink
Generally, if I lose 4 Don't numbers (Don't Pass or Don't Come), I will stop adding more money to the table until the next shooter.

I know, each dice throw is independent............. No such thing as hot shooter......
BlackjackGuy123
BlackjackGuy123
Joined: Jul 27, 2017
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 164
March 1st, 2018 at 12:38:58 PM permalink
Why not just count cards?

  • Jump to: