Mosca
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
• Posts: 3380
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July 18th, 2017 at 4:29:41 PM permalink
Quote: LuckyPhow

TWEEEEET! (Referee's whistle stopping play)

Is that true also from the view of Bayesian statistics? Where your assumed "prior" is refined by data as you collect it?

For example, at Lucky's Casino there is one game. You dip your hand into a large container holding red and green marbles. It costs \$1 each time you retrieve a marble. Red marbles pay you nothing. Geen marbles pay \$100.

On your first visit, you buy 1000 "plays," and you get 2 green marbles.
On your next visit you buy 1000 "plays," and you get 5 green marbles.

Others who do this kind of analysis for a living may disagree. However, I think those results -- if they were mine -- would affect my probability calculations going forward. I'm not sure that differs significantly from earlier discussions about the OP's suggested play. Just my 2 cents...

Oh hell, I don't know. My honest opinion is:

1) Too much math for \$1-\$3 bets on slot machines.

2) If I wanted to make money, I'd go to work instead of to the casino. (I recognize that APing is a living for some, and I respect that. It's not work I'm interested in.)

3) I went back and re-read KevinAA's original post. I understand how varying the "floor" affects the amount won and lost, but it still doesn't matter. If you stop at (lose half), then walk back into the casino a week later and lose the same amount, it is the same as losing all the week before. It appears to me to be just a game to make pushing the button interesting. There's nothing wrong with that, but it is an illusion that you're winning, unless you stop when you're ahead.

KevinAA, yes you said that there is a better chance of losing than winning. And I see how you are trading "a better chance of winning" for the possibility of losing half your bankroll. But I still don't see how it is anything more than artificial stop loss. In the end it is still mashing buttons into the teeth of the house edge. (Unless you have done your research, like others here have tried to communicate.)
NO KILL I
Tomfish
Joined: Aug 22, 2017
• Posts: 11
August 23rd, 2017 at 3:25:16 AM permalink
six weeks ago someone i know won 15.5k on the slots, a week after that he won 11k =over 26k

as far as i last heard he is giving it all back trying to win again. Also after he won he stared to play roulette with some of the money at 250 per spin.

i doubt he has much left by now.

before he won the 15.5k he was approx 12k in debt having lost the money playing slots/roulette, therefore he is not in profit at all since prior to the 12k debt he had lost other monies.

......................

another person i know went to play slots, changed machines a few times, didn't play more than 30 spins and won 16.3k, that was about 3 years ago, she is a regular slots players, plays almost every day with approx 100 budget. She has not won a jackpot since, and no doubt has given back that 16.3k win!

......................

a slot engineer i spoke with in a casino told me 110% the payouts are random, he said you could win a jackpot one min, change machines and when another jackpot.

I'm not so sure, i think they control all machines externally, they watch ppl on cameras and decide who they want to win. also they want to create a buzz so ppl tend to win when the casino is busy so a lot of ppl notice. but i can't prove this.

.............................

another time i remember that all at the same time 14 machines paid the same jackpot. casino manager said it was an error and no one got paid!

..........................................

I'm not a slot expert, far from it just hear things, see things.
I like hearing about betting advice, how to win, how to avoid losing etc. Like all the stories people I meet in casinos tell me.
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
• Posts: 9425
August 23rd, 2017 at 7:46:33 AM permalink
Quote: Tomfish

a slot engineer i spoke with in a casino told me 110% the payouts are random, he said you could win a jackpot one min, change machines and when another jackpot.

I'm not so sure, i think they control all machines externally, they watch ppl on cameras and decide who they want to win. also they want to create a buzz so ppl tend to win when the casino is busy so a lot of ppl notice. but i can't prove this.

Let me understand this: Rather than just hold 10% (sometimes more) with minimum surveillance effort, you think that they watch from the eye of the sky and deciding who gets to win and who gets to lose that day? They then transmit some sort of signal to the machine that it should hit a jackpot?

Let's pretend for a second that never in the history of every casino in the country there has been a disgruntled former employee that would go public with that kind of information...and have proof. Having stipulated that, what possible advantage would deciding who wins and who loses have for the casino? I mean, I don't know why you are even conceiving that this is a sensible notion, so I don't have a counter argument at the ready, I would have to understand why you even postulate that this is a possibility first, which I don't.

Secondly, when it comes to jackpots, does it not make sense that jackpots would correlate to busier times for the casino simply by virtue of the fact that there are more people playing at the time? If you have a full slot floor as opposed to a largely empty one, in general terms, would one not expect that a full slot floor would be more likely to have at least one machine hit a jackpot at any given time?
Vultures can't be choosers.
rsactuary
Joined: Sep 6, 2014
• Posts: 811
August 23rd, 2017 at 9:52:26 AM permalink
Quote: Tomfish

six weeks ago someone i know won 15.5k on the slots, a week after that he won 11k =over 26k

as far as i last heard he is giving it all back trying to win again. Also after he won he stared to play roulette with some of the money at 250 per spin.

i doubt he has much left by now.

before he won the 15.5k he was approx 12k in debt having lost the money playing slots/roulette, therefore he is not in profit at all since prior to the 12k debt he had lost other monies.

......................

another person i know went to play slots, changed machines a few times, didn't play more than 30 spins and won 16.3k, that was about 3 years ago, she is a regular slots players, plays almost every day with approx 100 budget. She has not won a jackpot since, and no doubt has given back that 16.3k win!

......................

a slot engineer i spoke with in a casino told me 110% the payouts are random, he said you could win a jackpot one min, change machines and when another jackpot.

I'm not so sure, i think they control all machines externally, they watch ppl on cameras and decide who they want to win. also they want to create a buzz so ppl tend to win when the casino is busy so a lot of ppl notice. but i can't prove this.

.............................

another time i remember that all at the same time 14 machines paid the same jackpot. casino manager said it was an error and no one got paid!

..........................................

I'm not a slot expert, far from it just hear things, see things.

wow. I can't even.....
monet0412
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
• Posts: 604
August 23rd, 2017 at 11:56:23 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Let me understand this: Rather than just hold 10% (sometimes more) with minimum surveillance effort, you think that they watch from the eye of the sky and deciding who gets to win and who gets to lose that day? They then transmit some sort of signal to the machine that it should hit a jackpot?

Let's pretend for a second that never in the history of every casino in the country there has been a disgruntled former employee that would go public with that kind of information...and have proof. Having stipulated that, what possible advantage would deciding who wins and who loses have for the casino? I mean, I don't know why you are even conceiving that this is a sensible notion, so I don't have a counter argument at the ready, I would have to understand why you even postulate that this is a possibility first, which I don't.

Secondly, when it comes to jackpots, does it not make sense that jackpots would correlate to busier times for the casino simply by virtue of the fact that there are more people playing at the time? If you have a full slot floor as opposed to a largely empty one, in general terms, would one not expect that a full slot floor would be more likely to have at least one machine hit a jackpot at any given time?

Oh... you better believe this!! Tomfish has leaked out the truth that some of us have known for a very long time. Didn't you all watch that Flintstone Movie with John Goodman?? Old Fred was killing the Casino until the owner pulled the "Lose" switch. MtherF'ers!! I remember the whole strip was in an uproar because you can't show real life truth like that on any type of media platform.

I just wonder if Tomfish likes Fish?? I mean I love Fish!! I think Fish are my favorite thing to eat when I play poker! If Tomfish ever comes to Vegas I would love to meet up and play any limit or any freeze out of his/her choice!!
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
• Posts: 9425
Thanks for this post from:
August 23rd, 2017 at 4:47:05 PM permalink
Quote: monet0412

I just wonder if Tomfish likes Fish?? I mean I love Fish!! I think Fish are my favorite thing to eat when I play poker! If Tomfish ever comes to Vegas I would love to meet up and play any limit or any freeze out of his/her choice!!

The good news for you is, if he actually believes any of this, he might already be fried.
Vultures can't be choosers.