KevinAA
• Posts: 283
Joined: Jul 6, 2017
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July 10th, 2017 at 12:05:39 PM permalink
Using free on-line slot machines as a guide, I came up with a betting system that provides a decent probability of winning. If you play slot machines and insist that you either win something or lose all of it, the probability of losing is quite high. This strategy increases the probability of winning in exchange for accepting the possibility of losing half or 20% of your bankroll. What you do with that is up to you (take the cash and go home, play something else with it, it doesn't matter).

Obviously you cannot guarantee a win. This "betting system" is a way to guide you in a completely objective manner as to when to press the cash out button (rather than relying on emotions which favor the casino), so that you don't give back winnings too often, but also don't give up too soon and walk away with a very small win.

Here is the way it works is:

1) pick a slot machine

2) decide how much you wish to bet per spin (the minimum, the maximum, anything in between, it's doesn't matter, but pick one and stick with it for simplicity's sake)

3) decide on a bankroll amount

Let X be equal to bankroll

Let N=X divided by bet amount (doesn't have to an integer, if not then round off)

N should be between 10 and 100. You can do less than 10, in fact I've done as little as 1 (put in \$5 into a \$5 machine and do one spin), but with less than 10, don't bother with all this complication, just play it "emotionally" so to speak. If you go over 100, then you're starting to get into "law of large numbers land" where the probability of winning drops.

Because there are three variables, bet, N and X, you'll need to decide how much X should be which determines N, or decide how much N should be which determines X, and of course you could go back to step 2 and pick a different bet and again figure out N and X.

For example, bet 40c per spin, N=50 and X=\$20.00

Or bet \$2.00 per spin, N=25, and X=\$50.00

Or bet 25c per spin, N=60 and X=\$15.00

4) Proceed to playing. If at any time, you win enough for the account balance to climb to 2X (congratulations, you've doubled your money), cash out. If not, after N spins have been completed, if your account balance >= X, cash out.

Counting spins gets tedious, but if the player's club card will easily tell you how much you've wagered, this is much easier (i.e., 1 point per dollar wagered, then simply take your starting points balance and add X, and that is when you stop.)

5) If you are down after N spins, then you are in one of three categories:

balance<0.5X (the worst type of loser)
balance>=0.5X but <0.8X (middle category of loser)
balance>=0.8X but <X (best category of loser)

Continue to play, don't bother counting spins, and if you are in the middle or best category of loser, set a floor equal to 50% of X or 80% of X, respectively. There is a built-in floor of zero for the lowest category of loser LOL.

If you win enough for the account balance to promote you up to the next category of loser (but not winner), move the floor up accordingly. If you lose and are at the floor (or the difference between floor and account balance is less than one bet), cash out.

For example, suppose you are betting 40c per spin, N=50, and X=20, and after 50 spins, you have \$12.52 left. The floor is \$10.00. 80% of \$20.00 is \$16.00. Should you win and the balance goes up to \$17.24, raise the floor to \$16.00.

If you can get the account balance back to X at any time, cash out.

The result of all this is that you will be in one of four categories at the end:

biggest loser: lost everything
middle loser: lost 50%
best loser: lose 20%
winner

I did 1,000 trials using this method playing 50 lions at a free play site. The results are as follows:

`prob(lose all)     23%prob(lose half)    32%prob(lose 20%)     11%prob(win)          35%prob(double your money)   10%avg net win for winners	        107.5% of bankroll median net win for winners	 32.4% of bankroll avg net win for double winners	  318% of bankrollmedian net win for dbl winners	  197% of bankroll`

Breaking even is counted as a "win". The probability of breaking even on a slot machine doing more than a handful of spins, especially a penny machine, is very very small.

"Double winners" refers to those who were able to cash out with a balance at least double the bankroll.

Note that even though a win can be as little as zero by the rules of the game (e.g., start with \$20, do 50 spins, then cash out \$22, for a 10% profit), that average includes a few very large wins, making the average just over double, but the median only a 1/3 profit. Slot machines have a pretty high variance!

Prob(win)=35% and prob(double)=10% implies that the probability of winning something less than 100% of bankroll is 25%.

Granted, this was only one type of slot machine, so in real life the probabilities and averages will differ, but this is a general guide. The average payback for this test was 97.1%, so in real life you can expect a bit less, but at least this gives you a pretty good idea of what to expect.

Basically, the probability of winning is 1 in 3, the probability of losing half your bankroll is 1/3, the probability of losing everything is 1 in 4, and the probability of losing 20% is 1 in 12.

Because the probability of losing 20% is the smallest, by quite a lot, I ran the test again eliminating the 80% threshhold, but what happens is about 80% of the time, you go from losing 20% to losing 50%. I figure losing only 20% is not such a bad thing and should not be re-wagered. The median loss on a slot machine doing 50 spins is around 20% anyway, so if you lose 20%, you're in the middle of the curve of outcomes and should stop and not risk losing more.

edited to add... if you decided on a bet of 40c and N=whatever, if you wanted to, you could bet 80c but then you have to count 2 towards the total of N, or if you bet 1.20, then count 3 towards the total
Mosca
• Posts: 4141
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
July 10th, 2017 at 12:15:07 PM permalink
So, I can do this, and if I win, stop... what, like forever? Or, can I stop for a week, and then come back and do it again?

How about I stop for a second, cash out and then immediately cash back in again? Does that mean I can start counting all over again?

What if I don't cash out? Can I arbitrarily decide that one session has ended and another begun?

The machine doesn't know how much time there is between spins, and doesn't count what we consider "sessions" as discrete calculations. It simply collects its edge. I'd say it collects it ruthlessly, but it doesn't care, it doesn't know anyone named Ruth. The only way to win on a slot machine is to get lucky, get ahead (by a penny, a dollar, whatever), and then never play another slot machine ever again.
A falling knife has no handle.
KevinAA
• Posts: 283
Joined: Jul 6, 2017
July 10th, 2017 at 12:18:21 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

So, I can do this, and if I win, stop... what, like forever? Or, can I stop for a week, and then come back and do it again?

How about I stop for a second, cash out and then immediately cash back in again? Does that mean I can start counting all over again?

What if I don't cash out? Can I arbitrarily decide that one session has ended and another begun?

The machine doesn't know how much time there is between spins, and doesn't count what we consider "sessions" as discrete calculations. It simply collects its edge. I'd say it collects it ruthlessly, but it doesn't care, it doesn't know anyone named Ruth. The only way to win on a slot machine is to get lucky, get ahead (by a penny, a dollar, whatever), and then never play another slot machine ever again.

It's one session. If you win, or lose, it doesn't matter, you can do it again at the same machine or a different machine, with any amount of time in between. It's all the same because each time you start all over again at step 1.
OnceDear
• Posts: 7496
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
July 10th, 2017 at 1:08:59 PM permalink
Quote: KevinAA

It's one session. If you win, or lose, it doesn't matter, you can do it again at the same machine or a different machine, with any amount of time in between. It's all the same because each time you start all over again at step 1.

Ah, but it's step 1 with a personal wealth which has been subjected to the wins or losses of the previous sessions.
There are so many ways that you can change the ratio of winning sessions to losing sessions. For example, you could use Martingale and a fair coin toss game to give you an average of 9 winning sessions to each 1 where you lose. These systems all come with commensurate cost in that the amount you stand to lose will be massively larger than the amount you stand to win. . . And that's even before you get whacked by house edge.
Kevin, you may enjoy this. . .
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/2/#post1370
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
Mosca
• Posts: 4141
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
July 10th, 2017 at 5:05:39 PM permalink
Quote: KevinAA

It's one session. If you win, or lose, it doesn't matter, you can do it again at the same machine or a different machine, with any amount of time in between. It's all the same because each time you start all over again at step 1.

Following that to its logical conclusion, then each spin is an independent decision, and there is no system at all.
A falling knife has no handle.
QFIT
• Posts: 315
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
July 10th, 2017 at 5:09:33 PM permalink
My free Craps simulator also works for slots: https://www.qfit.com/calccrap.htm
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
KevinAA
• Posts: 283
Joined: Jul 6, 2017
July 10th, 2017 at 6:10:24 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

Following that to its logical conclusion, then each spin is an independent decision, and there is no system at all.

Yes, each spin is independent of one another, but the probability distribution of prizes for one spin is not the same as the probability distribution of resulting win (or account balance, however you wish to call it) using this system (or any system, such as "put in \$20 and do 20 spins of \$1 each"). That is the key here.... I have created a betting system which produces a probability distribution of prizes that is A) lose 100% B) lose 50% C) lose 20% D) win something (and the "something" has its own probability distribution of wins which depends on the slot machine; some have more variance than others)

For example, if you loss a coin and say that heads=0 and tails=1, then for one coin toss the probability distribution is 50% 0 and 50% 1. But if you do 100 coin tosses and add them together, the probability distribution ranges from 0 to 100, with a mean of 50 and standard deviation 5 (if I did that math correctly). Graph the results and you see a bell curve rather than just two points with the single coin toss.
michael99000
• Posts: 2113
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
July 10th, 2017 at 10:53:39 PM permalink
Quote: KevinAA

It's one session. If you win, or lose, it doesn't matter, you can do it again at the same machine or a different machine, with any amount of time in between. It's all the same because each time you start all over again at step 1.

I'm gonna try your system out. One question , if I stop playing and walk a lap around the casino floor and then play again , does that count as a new session ? Or do I need to actually go home and come back to the casino another day ?
KevinAA
• Posts: 283
Joined: Jul 6, 2017
July 11th, 2017 at 2:31:56 AM permalink
Is this a serious question or am I wasting my time trying to contribute to this forum?
FinsRule
• Posts: 3918
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
July 11th, 2017 at 4:18:38 AM permalink
gamerfreak
• Posts: 3540
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
July 11th, 2017 at 5:42:59 AM permalink
Quote: KevinAA

Is this a serious question or am I wasting my time trying to contribute to this forum?

Betting systems do not get a great response as most people contributing here are looking for strategies that change the House Edge of a game. Betting systems and money management can change variance, but cannot change a -EV game into a +EV game.
OnceDear
• Posts: 7496
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
July 11th, 2017 at 6:07:54 AM permalink
Quote: KevinAA

Is this a serious question or am I wasting my time trying to contribute to this forum?

thanks for trying to contribute.
Please don't be offended that regulars here do not give any credence to 'systems'. This is largely a maths based forum and we know that no such system will, on balance, have merit apart from making the process of chucking money away a bit more fun.
Systems, stop losses, win goals, etc etc will all be derided. It's a free service provided to keep the unwise from believing in the cr4p that gets peddled.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
monet0412
• Posts: 627
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
July 11th, 2017 at 7:15:48 AM permalink
Yes Yes... but that comment about taking laps inside the Casino was pretty funny. I laugh every time thinking about it. What's even more funny is if you take a lap or bathroom break you have to start at step one again when you get back to the machine!

NXNXNX XxOOxxX NXNxxNnX
QFIT
• Posts: 315
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
July 11th, 2017 at 7:18:30 AM permalink
Yes, but how do you calculate the optimal number of laps?
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
KevinAA
• Posts: 283
Joined: Jul 6, 2017
July 11th, 2017 at 10:03:03 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

thanks for trying to contribute.
Please don't be offended that regulars here do not give any credence to 'systems'. This is largely a maths based forum and we know that no such system will, on balance, have merit apart from making the process of chucking money away a bit more fun.
Systems, stop losses, win goals, etc etc will all be derided. It's a free service provided to keep the unwise from believing in the cr4p that gets peddled.

It would help if people would read the contents of the post rather than just the title with the bad words "betting system" and then post a snarky reply. Would it have been better had I titled it "objective method of deciding when to press the cash out button on slot machines"? That's more wordy, and the content is exactly the same.

Here is a copy of what I wrote in my initial post, with emphasis added:

Quote: KevinAA

Using free on-line slot machines as a guide, I came up with a betting system that provides a decent probability of winning. If you play slot machines and insist that you either win something or lose all of it, the probability of losing is quite high. This strategy increases the probability of winning in exchange for accepting the possibility of losing half or 20% of your bankroll. What you do with that is up to you (take the cash and go home, play something else with it, it doesn't matter).

Obviously you cannot guarantee a win. This "betting system" is a way to guide you in a completely objective manner as to when to press the cash out button (rather than relying on emotions which favor the casino), so that you don't give back winnings too often, but also don't give up too soon and walk away with a very small win.

I know I've only recently joined, but I've read at least 100 times as many posts as what I've made. It seems to be that the asshole-to-population ratio on this forum is quite high. That's sad.

I have compiled the following statistics of replies in this thread:

`user       descriptionMosca         okayOnceDear      okayQFIT          assholemicheal99000  pretentious jerkFinsRule      dumbassgamerfreak    didn't readOnceDear      okaymonet0412     dickheadQFIT          asshole again`

Only 1 in 3 replies were not asshole replies. 2/3rds of the replies are useless and indicate a high level of idiocy. Sad.
beachbumbabs
• Posts: 14268
Joined: May 21, 2013
July 11th, 2017 at 10:56:46 AM permalink
Quote: KevinAA

It would help if people would read the contents of the post rather than just the title with the bad words "betting system" and then post a snarky reply. Would it have been better had I titled it "objective method of deciding when to press the cash out button on slot machines"? That's more wordy, and the content is exactly the same.

Here is a copy of what I wrote in my initial post, with emphasis added:

Quote: KevinAA

Using free on-line slot machines as a guide, I came up with a betting system that provides a decent probability of winning. If you play slot machines and insist that you either win something or lose all of it, the probability of losing is quite high. This strategy increases the probability of winning in exchange for accepting the possibility of losing half or 20% of your bankroll. What you do with that is up to you (take the cash and go home, play something else with it, it doesn't matter).

Obviously you cannot guarantee a win. This "betting system" is a way to guide you in a completely objective manner as to when to press the cash out button (rather than relying on emotions which favor the casino), so that you don't give back winnings too often, but also don't give up too soon and walk away with a very small win.

I know I've only recently joined, but I've read at least 100 times as many posts as what I've made. It seems to be that the asshole-to-population ratio on this forum is quite high. That's sad.

I have compiled the following statistics of replies in this thread:

`user       descriptionMosca         okayOnceDear      okayQFIT          assholemicheal99000  pretentious jerkFinsRule      dumbassgamerfreak    didn't readOnceDear      okaymonet0412     dickheadQFIT          asshole again`

Only 1 in 3 replies were not asshole replies. 2/3rds of the replies are useless and indicate a high level of idiocy. Sad.

What's sad is that you can't tell you're promoting a system, even though you yourself called it one.

What's even sadder is that you don't know the difference between a personal insult and a reasonable defense of your system.

Here's a learning opportunity. If I did a strict Martingale (system), as is the disciplinary standard here, you'd be nuked for, oh, 6, no, 7 separate personal insults. But I'm going to give you a chance and make it 7 days, as a single offense with special circumstances. Edit: "special" is not a good thing: normal 1st offense is 3 days, but you earned a harsher penalty.

As it happens, I agree there is merit in setting stop-loss points when playing slots. But there are several logical fallacies in your, or anyone's, suggestion that this can lead to overall winning, by any arbitrary cutoff point or interval, any percentage per session cutoff with more sessions anticipated, or any dollar figure.

You also have at least one directly wrong statement in your system, in saying that it doesn't matter how much you bet. The large majority of machines only pay their full RTP with maximum bet on maximum lines. There are various ways of programming this: some pay progressive amounts only on max bet, some pay a premium on symbols hit on the last line, some add more high-value symbols for higher bets, some add features for extra fees beyond the per - line bet, some have patterns that favor the higher numbered lines, some hit more frequently at max bet, etc.

So generally speaking, the best payoff on any machine occurs at max bet. If you can't afford it, you need to move down to a denomination where you can.

Another contention you made was that the Law of Large Numbers kicks in around 100 bets. Oh, if only. 100 spins is laughable. 100 million, maybe. On slots, variance can be your friend (it has been, if you're seeing 97.2x return on anything, even a free slot). It has to be, because nobody's going to get enough spins in a lifetime to approach the LoLN amount. But some people still win.

Look forward to hearing from you on the other side.
Last edited by: beachbumbabs on Jul 11, 2017
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Mission146
• Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
July 11th, 2017 at 11:47:15 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

What's sad is that you can't tell you're promoting a system, even though you yourself called it one.

What's even sadder is that you don't know the difference between a personal insult and a reasonable defense of your system.

Here's a learning opportunity. If I did a strict Martingale (system), as is the disciplinary standard here, you'd be nuked for, oh, 6, no, 7 separate personal insults. But I'm going to give you a chance and make it 7 days, as a single offense with special circumstances.

As it happens, I agree there is merit in setting stop-loss points when playing slots. But there are several logical fallacies in your, or anyone's, suggestion that this can lead to overall winning, by any arbitrary cutoff point or interval, any percentage per session cutoff with more sessions anticipated, or any dollar figure.

You also have at least one directly wrong statement in your system, in saying that it doesn't matter how much you bet. The large majority of machines only pay their full RTP with maximum bet on maximum lines. There are various ways of programming this: some pay progressive amounts only on max bet, some pay a premium on symbols hit on the last line, some add more high-value symbols for higher bets, some add features for extra fees beyond the per - line bet, some have patterns that favor the higher numbered lines, some hit more frequently at max bet, etc.

So generally speaking, the best payoff on any machine occurs at max bet. If you can't afford it, you need to move down to a denomination where you can.

Another contention you made was that the Law of Large Numbers kicks in around 100 bets. Oh, if only. 100 spins is laughable. 100 million, maybe. On slots, variance can be your friend (it has been, if you're seeing 97.2x return on anything, even a free slot). It has to be, because nobody's going to get enough spins in a lifetime to approach the LoLN amount. But some people still win.

Look forward to hearing from you on the other side.

Wait a minute, I thought I was the merciful one! J/K

With respect to the slots, what I can say is that this thread has generated some good conversation in that regard, so I kind of want to add a few of my own observations to the remainder of BBB's post.

1.) The idea of a, 'Stop Loss,' on slots for any other than pragmatic reasons (you simply do not want to lose more than x amount of money) is nonsense. The long-term expectation never changes regardless of what you do and is simply a function of dollars bet by the percentage house edge of the machine expressed as a decimal. Thus, if a machine holds 10% and you bet a total of \$100, you have an expectation of -\$10. If you bet a total of \$1,000, your expectation is -\$100.

When it comes to expectation v. what actually happens it becomes irrelevant in the long run because what actually happens will increasingly become more and more likely to not deviate too far (in percentage terms) from your overall expectation. That doesn't even necessarily have to come way of, 'Running bad,' for a prolonged period of time or as long as you may have, 'Run good.'

For example, if you run at +200% on \$1,000 in total bets, you will be up 2k at the end of that run. Again, let's say the slot has a 10% hold. Now, let's say you run \$100,000 more coin-in but you hit 90% just on that, your total will be:

-\$10,000 on \$100,000 coin-in.

AND

\$2,000 on \$1,000 coin-in.

For a total of -\$8,000 on \$101,000 coin-in. That's a return of \$93,000/\$101000, or 92.08%.

If you run more coin in at expectation, your overall return percentage will get lower and lower until it is virtually indistinguishable from the 90% long-term return of the machine, to wit, even if you don't fall below expectation for any sustained period of time, your initial, 'Good run,' will comprise an infinitesimal percentage over 90%.

So, you don't even need to run bad to balance out a good run, the mere running at expectation from there on out will almost entirely balance that out given enough trials.

The point is: Actual results only matter to your wallet, mathematically, the only thing that will matter in the long run is expectation.

There are a few exceptions, you could hit the MegaBucks jackpot, or something along those lines, but the only reason that won't balance out is because the hit will likely be so huge that (one would hope) you would never end up playing enough coin-in for it to be balanced out by running at expectation.

2.) I mostly agree with BBB's contention that it can matter how much you bet, but I'm not sure that is the case on the majority of slot machines. It's almost always the case with Video Poker.

I kind of say that for four reasons:

A.) There are a number of machines upon which it truly doesn't matter, and I would suggest that number is more than most people would think. This is because the payouts are what I term, "Perfectly Graduated," and also the reels don't change. There are a few examples of physical reel machines that operate this way...but they are DEFINITELY in the minority when it comes to physical reels.

B.) There are a large number of Progressive machines upon which the meter moves based on coin-in. However, some of these Progressives ARE winnable with a minimum bet, or certainly a bet that is less than the maximum. On some of these machines, betting up will often add to the BASE amount of the progressive(s) in question, (for example, \$0.40 could have a base of \$20, \$0.80 could have a base of \$40, \$1.20 could have a base of \$60...etc) but the amount added by way of the Progressive contribution is unchanged.

When that happens, you end up with a base that is relative to the bet amount, but say the \$0.40 bet has a Progressive that is at \$37.22, well, that's \$17.22 in contribution by way of coin-in. The \$0.80 bet level may have a base of \$40, but with the contribution, the total progressive is \$57.22.

IF all other things are equal on that device, and sometimes they are, then you are getting better value with the minimum bet. The \$37.22 is 93.05x the bet amount whereas the \$57.22 is only 71.525x the bet amount, so all else equal, the lower bet amount is going to have a better overall return.

C.) There are also a few progressive games, though not too many, where there is no change in the Progressive amount at all regardless of the amount bet once you have bet the minimum amount that qualifies you for the Progressive. Once again, only the base pays will change. Bell Fever (and very similar variants) is one example of a game that works this way, and it also works that way for a number of Keno Progressives, most notably on Spielo Pick 'N Play machines. Your best return will generally come from betting the least that still qualifies you for the Progressive. Since an increased bet will win only the SAME amount on the Progressive, your percentage return from that result will not be as high, and therefore, the house edge will be greater.

EXCEPTIONS:

There are several exceptions to this rule, so it is important to understand what machine you are playing. One notable exception is Quick Hit PRO which has Progressives for 5-9 Quick Hit symbols. The game has three games which are all essentially played as completely separate games, but Free Games for one is Free Games for all three screens.

On the version I am semi-familiar with, you can bet either \$1, \$2 or \$3. Interestingly, betting more than \$1 does not change the return of the Progressives AT ALL (the base is the same) but in order to get Free Games, you have to light up three money bags that are off to the right of each screen. The Rules screen states that doing this is more likely when you are betting MAX, but it does not quantify that in any way.

Because of that, one would assume that betting Max would be best in terms of return percentage, but there essentially MUST be a point where betting the minimum is better for an individual Progressive Jackpot point, or combination of multiple ones. I don't know where that point is. I don't think the machine is worth studying in order to figure that out.

D.) What is Better?

I mean, we understand that there are many machines that have a better return percentage (lower house edge) when one is betting Max, but what does that really mean? How does the minimum bet compare to the max bet?

Let's say you have a machine that pays 2500 on a three-coin bet for the top result whereas it is 800 on a single coin bet and 1600 on a two-coin bet. Okay, we know that 2500/3 is 833.33 per coin, so objectively, we know the return must be better with the max bet. How much better, though?

Let's imagine the probability of hitting that result is 1/4000, so now that result at 800 coins is worth:

1/4000 * 800 = 0.2 or 20% of the return of the game.

AND:

1/4000 * 833.33 = 0.2083325 or 20.83325% of the return of the game.

Terrific, so the overall return increases by 0.833325%, but what does that do to the expected loss per play?

Let's say that the machine has a 70% return on all other results, so with a one-coin bet, you get a 90% overall return. With a two-coin bet, it is the same, 90%. With a three coin bet, you get a 90.83325% return. Let's look at expected dollars lost per spin:

1 * .1 = \$0.10 (per \$1 spin)

2 * .1 = \$0.20 (per \$2 spin)

3 * .0916675 = \$0.2750025 (\$0.27.5 per \$3 spin)

The machine is negative expectation no matter what, and then you take a look at how much you are expected to lose per spin. Betting \$3 is definitely the better percentage return, but betting \$1 would have the lowest expected dollars lost per spin, in this case.

The \$1 bet is better in every way EXCEPT percentage return and winning potential. You lose less \$\$\$ per spin, you'll generally play much longer, if you consider that a worthy goal, etc.

There are probably circumstances, and certainly with progressives, where a Max bet is for the best in both percentage AND expected dollars and cents loss. All progressives (uncapped) have an expected win at a certain point, the likelihood of the machine ever reaching that point varies. But, the point is, on the example above, the machine would have to have a house edge of 3.3333% (or less) for you to be losing the LEAST money per spin by way of the \$3 bet. In other words, that changed top payout would have to make a hell of a difference. Specifically, it would have to pay (based on the probability of 1/4000) 1,067 per coin bet (70% + 26.675% = 96.675% (House Edge 3.325%) for you to have a lesser \$\$\$ expected loss per \$3 spin, which means the progressive would have to pay about 3,201.

See, 3200 would be perfectly even:

(3200/3/4000) + .7 = 0.96666666666 (House Edge: 3.3333%, expected loss per \$3 bet, \$0.09999999999

---Anyway, my point is machines vary too much these days to really make a generalization.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
billryan
• Posts: 16472
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
July 11th, 2017 at 12:52:57 PM permalink
Quote: KevinAA

Is this a serious question or am I wasting my time trying to contribute to this forum?

I'm not sure, but I just wasted two minutes of mine reading it, although I do appreciate the happy ending.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
monet0412
• Posts: 627
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
July 11th, 2017 at 2:44:51 PM permalink
I can't believe I just typed all that information out on Reels and what I thought about this Stop Loss BS and reread it and deleted it lol... anyways... forget it... WTF do I know?!
beachbumbabs
• Posts: 14268
Joined: May 21, 2013
July 12th, 2017 at 12:22:16 AM permalink
Quote: monet0412

I can't believe I just typed all that information out on Reels and what I thought about this Stop Loss BS and reread it and deleted it lol... anyways... forget it... WTF do I know?!

Post of the year, your dissection, mission. I don't think we disagree except for what constitutes "the majority" these days, and I'll cede the argument to you, as you see many more machines than I do. Really appreciate your making the calculation relatively simple.

Should quote it below so you can't delete it. Lol...thanks for taking the time.

Fwiw, my take on Stop Loss is it keeps me from going on tilt, especially if I'm losing early in a trip. I have a \$1000 towel from Atlantis (never used, hanging in a place of honor 20 years), and a 2am trip down the Black Horse Parkway because I didn't have enough cash left to pay the NJ Turnpike toll. Tilts from 20+ and 15 years ago. I don't kid myself that it will have any effect on whether I win.

Learning experiences all around.

monet, I wish you had left what you said about stop loss posted. Damn, man, you're an encyclopedia, and we could really use the perspective.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
monet0412
• Posts: 627
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
July 12th, 2017 at 1:39:42 AM permalink
Actually I typed out and deleted information on how I consistently beat Reels. I deleted it because most likely nobody will believe or use the information. The reason I post or talk to people about it is because nobody ever takes my advice or if they do believe what I'm saying they don't use the information. I can understand though because let's say I put you on a play and after 4 days you end up losing 1500 after hitting a 4500 dollar jackpot. Your not going to enjoy that struggle and most likely going to think I made a huge error. However if you have the time to keep playing these machines over and over for years your gonna make sbout 15-20k a year and eat for free forever. The other problem for me is I can't show anyone the math on reel machines. I can only tell you that I've put millions upon millions of coin and spins through and I know what can be done. Also some inside information about theoretical return from management that I tip so sometimes tipping can be profitable. Of course I'm not certain they have the correct Theo... but like I said... I really don't know much I'm just a pinball banging around in the Casinos playing games all day and night just firing torpedoes!!

Stop/Loss is ridiculous because gambling or AP is a lifelong session. Just because you quit today up or down doesn't mean your never going to be back in action. I clump all my AP together anyway... I don't see any separation.. I only see in my mind is the return going to be + or - in the long run. Like I say though I'm a Neanderthal.
Mission146
• Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
July 12th, 2017 at 5:40:46 AM permalink
Quote: monet0412

I can't believe I just typed all that information out on Reels and what I thought about this Stop Loss BS and reread it and deleted it lol... anyways... forget it... WTF do I know?!

For what it's worth, I am listening and probably taking notes!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
• Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
July 12th, 2017 at 5:59:58 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Post of the year, your dissection, mission. I don't think we disagree except for what constitutes "the majority" these days, and I'll cede the argument to you, as you see many more machines than I do. Really appreciate your making the calculation relatively simple.

Thanks for the compliment, you might even be right about what is actually the majority as I imagine mileage is going to vary from person to person. Also, I'm mainly only looking for machines where an advantage can be had, anyway, so there are a ton of machines I ignore completely. I've probably said this before, but there are probably fewer than ten machines that I find fun to play, in general, and probably only two or three that I think can be fun whether one is at an advantage or not.

Speaking of, will whoever created, 'Diamond Hunt,' please make a progressive version? That game is awesome. There's literally no way to ever justify playing it, though.

Quote:

Should quote it below so you can't delete it. Lol...thanks for taking the time.

I wouldn't delete it, I really don't specifically discuss any machines in it. Further, on the few machines I did mention, I didn't say what the play point is or otherwise admitted to not knowing it.

Also, I think the one I called, 'Quick Hit PRO,' might not actually be that. Quick Hit PRO might be something else, I'll try to remember to look next time.

Quote:

Fwiw, my take on Stop Loss is it keeps me from going on tilt, especially if I'm losing early in a trip. I have a \$1000 towel from Atlantis (never used, hanging in a place of honor 20 years), and a 2am trip down the Black Horse Parkway because I didn't have enough cash left to pay the NJ Turnpike toll. Tilts from 20+ and 15 years ago. I don't kid myself that it will have any effect on whether I win.

Learning experiences all around.

Exactly, I agree with Monet that life is all one big session, but that has little bearing on pragmatic concerns for people who are playing negative EV games.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
gamerfreak
• Posts: 3540
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
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July 12th, 2017 at 7:50:57 AM permalink
Quote: monet0412

Actually I typed out and deleted information on how I consistently beat Reels. I deleted it because most likely nobody will believe or use the information. The reason I post or talk to people about it is because nobody ever takes my advice or if they do believe what I'm saying they don't use the information. I can understand though because let's say I put you on a play and after 4 days you end up losing 1500 after hitting a 4500 dollar jackpot. Your not going to enjoy that struggle and most likely going to think I made a huge error. However if you have the time to keep playing these machines over and over for years your gonna make sbout 15-20k a year and eat for free forever. The other problem for me is I can't show anyone the math on reel machines. I can only tell you that I've put millions upon millions of coin and spins through and I know what can be done. Also some inside information about theoretical return from management that I tip so sometimes tipping can be profitable. Of course I'm not certain they have the correct Theo... but like I said... I really don't know much I'm just a pinball banging around in the Casinos playing games all day and night just firing torpedoes!!

I'll second that I'll eat up any information you're willing to share about slots, because there is a serious lack of good info out there.

I think AP's and gambling writers/mathematicians are mistaken in ignoring a game that covers 90% of the casino floor. Part of the problem is that there are so many damn games, and they're so hard to analyze without a Par Sheet. I think another part of the problem is that they're often dismissed as ploppy games by serious players/writers, when in reality there are plenty of profitable slot plays out there.
monet0412
• Posts: 627
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
July 12th, 2017 at 8:03:16 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Exactly, I agree with Monet that life is all one big session, but that has little bearing on pragmatic concerns for people who are playing negative EV games.

I understand what you two are doing and saying... well sorta... When you all start talking .033 and N=32 to the X power of E ... I just kinda glaze over and move on. If people are going to play -EV games and they know they are -EV games and they know they can't win... well they are just having fun or they have a gambling problem and are doomed anyway. You can't reach those people. They are going to do what they are going to do and that is fine. Those people aren't quitting anyway. Stop Loss or Stop Win... blah and BS they are going to get back in action soon enough. I guess you could make an argument for someone trying to play MegaBucks or some other large payoff game that they are taking 100 dollar or 1000 dollar shot at. Take this poker game I sat down to the other night at the Golden Nugget. I was up around 450 in the first 45 mins and left 95 dollars up total after about an hour of play. I don't even know my point anymore lol. I think I have told you all this before... I get home many mornings and my wife will ask how I did? Sometimes I say something like I was up 12 grand but I ended up losing 3 grand total so I gave back the 12 + 3. She will tell me how stupid I was and why didn't I leave with 10k up or 5k up. I tell her... that makes no difference I'm just gonna play the same game tomorrow or some other game. Don't give me trouble. I'm always smart when I win but when I lose she thinks I am greedy or stupid. I tell her don't worry about it they are gonna send me x amount of mail and I made x amount of cash back and we can always eat our way even :)

Anyways...I'm rambling and I clearly don't understand the OPs Slot System or the Stop Win/Loss strategy either. The only way it makes sense to me is if your never going to be in action ever again after you implement your Stop Win/Loss.
Mission146
• Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
July 12th, 2017 at 8:10:41 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

I'll second that I'll eat up any information you're willing to share about slots, because there is a serious lack of good info out there.

I think AP's and gambling writers/mathematicians are mistaken in ignoring a game that covers 90% of the casino floor. Part of the problem is that there are so many damn games, and they're so hard to analyze without a Par Sheet. I think another part of the problem is that they're often dismissed as ploppy games by serious players/writers, when in reality there are plenty of profitable slot plays out there.

Those are some interesting points.

A.) I don't know that they, 'Ignore,' them, per se, in the sense of not caring about them at all. I just think that they don't enjoy them as much as other games, if at all.

I believe that one characteristic that most AP's share is the fact that most of them still genuinely enjoy what they are doing. I wouldn't presume to speak for Bob Dancer, but I imagine he is certainly aware that machines other than VP can be played at an advantage, my guess is just that he genuinely enjoys VP and would rather focus entirely on that.

I also think that some AP's who generally don't play or talk about slots would recognize obvious opportunities, usually in conjunction with some kind of promotion.

B.) You're right, it's a PITA to analyze just ONE slot machine without a PAR Sheet. In fact, you're not so much analyzing it as you are making a very educated guess, because it's still usually going to be based on a largely limited sample size. I suppose that's one nice thing about must-hits, other than the fact that you rarely find them in a good position, they are easy to understand and don't require too much by way of analysis. It's really just a matter of what assumptions you want to make about an individual play.

C.) The other thing is, I don't think there is a ton of money in it for most people if you are looking at JUST the machines and not considering other factors. You could try to analyze some sort of Progressive machine only to find that it would have to miss fifteen cycles, or so, before you're ever at the point where you have an advantage!

I mean, VP and VK (Progressives) are pretty easy, the paytable pays a fixed amount depending on playing perfect strategy. You could just play Basic Strategy and you know what that costs you.

That's the point. The time cost of learning a VP game (or just using a strategy sheet) is minimal compared to breaking down an entire slot machine. It also bears reiterating that you could break down a machine just to find it's almost never positive. Certainly playing VP correctly is more difficult than just mashing a button on a slot machine, but identifying an advantage on a slot machine is arguably much more difficult.

So, if you're going to look at just beating the machines, absent any mail, points, promotions or other factors...I think you really need to enjoy doing it just for the sake of doing it for it to really be worth the time cost.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
• Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
July 12th, 2017 at 8:16:05 AM permalink
Quote: monet0412

I understand what you two are doing and saying... well sorta... well they are just having fun or they have a gambling problem and are doomed anyway. You can't reach those people. They are going to do what they are going to do and that is fine. Those people aren't quitting anyway. Stop Loss or Stop Win... blah and BS they are going to get back in action soon enough.

I would grant that in many cases, but I do want to try to disseminate information that may actually help truly, 'Recreational Players,' the kind of people for whom gambling is just an annual pilgrimage, or something along those lines. I can't save anyone with a gambling problem, to start, I'm not a Psychologist so there's no way I'd ever be able to get to the root problem.

I can definitely identify with the rest of your post! Fortunately, my significant other tries to understand the specifics of what I'm doing and is gradually getting better at not being a, 'Fair Weather Fan.'
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Ibeatyouraces
• Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
July 12th, 2017 at 8:49:17 AM permalink
The Wizard on slots from American Casino Guide...

https://youtu.be/DtDldt47Dts

https://youtu.be/GNlCLpEI2mc
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Mosca
• Posts: 4141
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
July 12th, 2017 at 1:06:29 PM permalink
Quote: KevinAA

I have compiled the following statistics of replies in this thread:

`user       descriptionMosca         okayOnceDear      okayQFIT          assholemicheal99000  pretentious jerkFinsRule      dumbassgamerfreak    didn't readOnceDear      okaymonet0412     dickheadQFIT          asshole again`

Only 1 in 3 replies were not asshole replies. 2/3rds of the replies are useless and indicate a high level of idiocy. Sad.

Aw man. I can't be a decent asshole even when I'm trying. I need to work at it more.
A falling knife has no handle.
monet0412
• Posts: 627
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
July 12th, 2017 at 1:43:19 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

The Wizard on slots from American Casino Guide...

https://youtu.be/DtDldt47Dts

https://youtu.be/GNlCLpEI2mc

Very Sad Face Emoji after watching these videos.

#1 Don't Play Slots... #10 watch out for Trolls credit hustling... He called them Trolls like they are less human :(
Not my fault some guy left five hundred in the machine and I cashed it out or 2 dollars or whatever I found.

#9 Don't Leave a Machine in a High State but it's ok to AP High State Machines but not ok to Credit Hustle... Oh and don't tip more than 0.5% lol

I've literally seen fist fights break out over Cherry Pies, Boom Machines, Star Wars, Indiana Jones, Hurricane, Must Hits, Blazing Sevens... Etc Etc

Reminds me of the guy in my hotel room on the T.V. telling me that the only way to beat slots is to get lucky. (Very Sad Face Emoji)

Oh well, this is why these machines get very little heat so it's good to have all this misinformation out there.
monet0412
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July 12th, 2017 at 9:01:42 PM permalink
Here is one interesting example. In 2001 I found a 10 machine bank of Blazing 7's that were set to 100% return. The players card was .25 and on point days... well you get the point. I may have played this bank a little bit :) ... Not long after they did change the return to 99.2% and they stayed like that for years upon years. One time my wife had some promotion that offered a weekend of unlimited 3% back on as many points as she wanted with a Free Play Bounce Back. I didn't fully understand it but it seems that some outside entity was sponsoring the promotion. When I talked to the people at the club I was surprised that they didn't cap the points and it was for only Reel Machines they warned and not VP. I said sounds good. Needless to say I was playing 3 machines all day and night... mostly night. At one point I was running up and down the row playing 5 at a time. Later I called a friend who helped me play 6 machines at once. Around noon on the last day of the promotion some lady came up to me and asked me who the girls name was on the players card I was using. I told her that is my wife. She took all my cards and told me to wait. She came back explaining that I needed to combine our accounts if I wanted to play on her card and that she tried to get all the play to transfer to my account but was denied that request. The day after the promotion I had over 17k of free play on her card. I never seen that outside company offer another promotion :(

Years later they did move that bank around a few times and it seems they changed the return to either 98.5% or 97.5% ... I could never get conformation but I could figure it out by my massive amount of play. Needless to say they had more promotions in this place but the best was about 6 months of a promotion on these machines where I was getting around 105% return. Once again I was hammering these machines. So on certain days I was making an easy 120 dollars an hour per machine to just push the button. I only ever seen one other professional hammering these during that time and he played the day shift. I told a couple of professionals about them who I talk to but don't hang with... they either didn't care or didn't believe me. One of them did decide to mess with them at the end of the promotions and realized it was pretty sweet but he was too late to the party. Oh but don't play Reels because you have no shot!!

EDIT: I just want to clarify that I never used a system where I had to use N or X or cash out when I was up or down on this bank! Oh but at times I was doing laps around the bank of machines :) I think about that sometimes... I would love to have the security tapes of those nights. I wonder if security ever seen me doing that and laughed or enjoyed the show I was providing?
Last edited by: monet0412 on Jul 12, 2017
LuckyPhow
• Posts: 698
Joined: May 19, 2016
July 13th, 2017 at 7:02:32 AM permalink
monet,

I often find your posts both entertaining and educational. This post is certainly entertaining. Thank you. But, sometimes your credulity crosses a line:

Quote: monet0412

Years later they did move that bank around a few times and it seems they changed the return to either 98.5% or 97.5% ... I could never get conformation but I could figure it out by my massive amount of play.

Ummm... How much \$\$\$ does it take for you to determine a slot machine's payback to the tenths decimal point?

Also, among the hundreds of different slot machines, how do you find the one with the good payback without losing your shirt testing all the others?

OK, you said it, so it could be true. OTOH, you just might be a rascal if...
monet0412
• Posts: 627
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
July 13th, 2017 at 7:14:55 AM permalink
Quote: LuckyPhow

monet,

I often find your posts both entertaining and educational. This post is certainly entertaining. Thank you. But, sometimes your credulity crosses a line:

Ummm... How much \$\$\$ does it take for you to determine a slot machine's payback to the tenths decimal point?

Also, among the hundreds of different slot machines, how do you find the one with the good payback without losing your shirt testing all the others?

OK, you said it, so it could be true. OTOH, you just might be a rascal if...

I suppose I could be wrong. Sometimes I talk to people that work in the Casinos that work on these machines or have par sheets. I buy them expensive dinners with comps or give them envelopes on holidays and birthdays and such. Perhaps they lied to me but when I have 3 to 6 sources in the Casino from separate departments telling me the same numbers I tend to trust them. After spinning the reels and seeing how much I'm up or down after 100k or 1 million coin in it's kinda simple to me... like I say, maybe I'm wrong and making all this up. I always wanted to be a writer. It does also help when you see other known APs playing the same machines for long hours and your talking and sharing the same information.

Interesting note... sometimes I see an AP in the Casino and I talk to them awhile and I'll mention a slot play like this. They shake their head up and down and enjoy the information but I never see them spin the reels. They either don't believe me or don't have the bank or don't want the headache because sometimes the swings are not fun but nowhere near the brutal swings of Ultimate X and the Casinos like to send the Limousine to Reel Players.
monet0412
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July 13th, 2017 at 10:47:34 AM permalink
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22312
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
July 13th, 2017 at 11:05:48 AM permalink
Generally, a host will be on your side until their job is on the line.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
monet0412
• Posts: 627
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
July 13th, 2017 at 11:57:27 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Generally, a host will be on your side until their job is on the line.

Honestly I've never had any problems with hosts. I like hosts the best out of all Casino Employees but the story was about either the Head Manager of the Slots Department or he was the Day Shift Casino Manager... it was a much different experience and conversation compared to talking to a host.
gamerfreak
• Posts: 3540
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
July 13th, 2017 at 1:34:24 PM permalink
My TR account says "host available", does that mean a specific host was assigned to me? Wouldn't they be different for each CET property?

Either way I kinda don't want to talk to them.

I've only earned a few thousand TC this year, I can't imagine they'd be assigning me a host.

monet0412
• Posts: 627
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
July 14th, 2017 at 7:37:17 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

monet, I wish you had left what you said about stop loss posted. Damn, man, you're an encyclopedia, and we could really use the perspective.

This quote has been eating at me for a few days. At first I was flattered. After a minute or two I was thinking this was a really clever way of saying that Monet is just a know it all lol. I understand that I probably do come off like a know it all in a variety of subjects on this site. I have never liked to dance or understood dancing in real life and I don't dance very good on this site as well. If I did go to a dance I was usually the guy sitting in the back with sunglasses on looking for some sort of a weak spot or angle. I always think of myself as a Jack of All Trades and Master of None. If anyone who is young around 18-22 you should learn one thing and do it as well or better than anyone else. At least that is what I would do if I could do it over again. It seems that it is better all around in the long run to either be the best or one of the best at whatever field you are into you.

Months ago I actually left posting on this site. I thought I had found the cure for the addiction to posting. I felt like this site was beating me in some way. This is because I put out way too much free information that is honest to the best of my knowledge and I rarely find anything that I use from threads. I suppose the main thing I get is the entertainment value which is high and it is kind of a safe place where I can write pretty much whatever I want and like minded individuals understand what I am saying or have to say.

Sometimes I type out a large amount of information and reread it and realize this is probably not wise. Afterwards I make a joke about it and I probably shouldn't do that since it brings attention to what I was trying to avoid in the first place. I may never fully understand how to dance on this site but it certainly is difficult not to put my two cents in on a daily basis recently. On another thread I only wrote two small sentences but I got some serious PM Backlash about it lol. It seems it is better to put out general or basic information and keep advanced information to ones self but it is tough to read or watch you tube videos of general information and not say something about it. I'll keep trying to keep my mouth closed in the future. I guess this is why some people ask to be deleted lol !?
beachbumbabs
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July 14th, 2017 at 7:57:28 PM permalink
Quote: monet0412

This quote has been eating at me for a few days. At first I was flattered. After a minute or two I was thinking this was a really clever way of saying that Monet is just a know it all lol. I understand that I probably do come off like a know it all in a variety of subjects on this site. I have never liked to dance or understood dancing in real life and I don't dance very good on this site as well. If I did go to a dance I was usually the guy sitting in the back with sunglasses on looking for some sort of a weak spot or angle. I always think of myself as a Jack of All Trades and Master of None. If anyone who is young around 18-22 you should learn one thing and do it as well or better than anyone else. At least that is what I would do if I could do it over again. It seems that it is better all around in the long run to either be the best or one of the best at whatever field you are into you.

Months ago I actually left posting on this site. I thought I had found the cure for the addiction to posting. I felt like this site was beating me in some way. This is because I put out way too much free information that is honest to the best of my knowledge and I rarely find anything that I use from threads. I suppose the main thing I get is the entertainment value which is high and it is kind of a safe place where I can write pretty much whatever I want and like minded individuals understand what I am saying or have to say.

Sometimes I type out a large amount of information and reread it and realize this is probably not wise. Afterwards I make a joke about it and I probably shouldn't do that since it brings attention to what I was trying to avoid in the first place. I may never fully understand how to dance on this site but it certainly is difficult not to put my two cents in on a daily basis recently. On another thread I only wrote two small sentences but I got some serious PM Backlash about it lol. It seems it is better to put out general or basic information and keep advanced information to ones self but it is tough to read or watch you tube videos of general information and not say something about it. I'll keep trying to keep my mouth closed in the future. I guess this is why some people ask to be deleted lol !?

I guess I see your point, but it's a loss. I think it's a combination of the AP life, your preference to work alone, and some peer pressure. You're successful on a level most people never reach, to the point that some folks have doubted your stories or amounts.

So you can justifiably take some pride in your skill, and where else are you so appreciated? Where do you pass it on? Here is where people look to play smarter and better, so anything you care to discuss is of value.

What weighs most heavily against that is, anything you discuss has the potential to cost you and other APs money in the long run. If you give up specific machines or techniques, you're just giving yourself competition the next time you try to make that play, in a cynical sense. Either other people try it, or you clue in a casino.and they might shut it down.

Looking at it strictly from content value of this site, I have been saying keep it coming. But that doesn't necessarily serve your best interests, though I think you've done a pretty good job on discretion all along.

Do as you need to, but i hope you'll keep posting; just don't cost yourself money.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
monet0412
• Posts: 627
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
July 14th, 2017 at 8:35:27 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I think it's a combination of the AP life, your preference to work alone, and some peer pressure. You're successful on a level most people never reach, to the point that some folks have doubted your stories or amounts.

I was surprised nobody questioned that I found a bank of machines that were Reels and set to 100% return. I certainly had a hard time believing it when I first was told about it. I guess everyone figured that was BS and had no reason to comment such an absurd claim. I found this out from the techs and other employees. I am not sure why they did it. Perhaps it was a mistake or they were going to advertise that they had the only 100% slot machines. Later the same people told me they decided to drop them to 99.2%. I never seen the par sheets or got confirmation from a gaming agent or anything like that. What I can tell you is that I played the machines and spun the reels over and over and usually at the 100k point my money came out to 1% or .5% loss. At times it would be over 100% return depending on when I started on the progressive but for the most part it was close to an average of a 1% loss when playing the game flat. Understand this was 16 years ago but the machines stayed at that high 99% return for years. These machines have been moved once again and the bank is smaller. I haven't been able to get any information on the payback and I haven't played them enough to know what is going on now and the card and promotions have been cut to the point where it isn't worth a test as of yet but you never know when that will change... it always seems the Casino will do something crazy down the road to draw people in. Actually they have other plays currently that are good so it is a wait and see situation. They certainly do seem to enjoy me and my families action because they send us some really good mail.

I do understand the skepticism though but in my defense I only post information that I have done directly. I try to post things that help APs in general. I do not work both sides of the fence and I don't want to be associated with anyone that does. I am on the side that is against the Casino. I've also been honest in my dishonesty and I think that has to count for something. It is always my hope to help anyone and everyone to beat the Casino in any means available. If I have typed out something that seems off or far fetched I would suggest that the individual just dismiss it. On the other hand if I type out something that seems plausible it is my hope that it can be used to make some cash in the long run.
Last edited by: monet0412 on Jul 14, 2017
djatc
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July 14th, 2017 at 9:33:05 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

So you can justifiably take some pride in your skill, and where else are you so appreciated? Where do you pass it on? Here is where people look to play smarter and better, so anything you care to discuss is of value.

I was just going to write that if you are solo or a duo it's tough to resist the temptation to share more then we would like to. How awesome is it when you make \$5k in your sleep, while a bunch of APs you took action with hit the progressive? What about driving down to the casino, to have someone else you had action with take it down? How about hitting a crazy +ev sports parlay?

All these things you want to share. You want people to see what you're accomplishing. You want people to be jealous. You want the fame that comes with being a professional gambler. Not you in particular, but generally we want to see some acknowledgement for our actions.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
monet0412
• Posts: 627
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
July 14th, 2017 at 9:49:45 PM permalink
Quote: djatc

I was just going to write that if you are solo or a duo it's tough to resist the temptation to share more then we would like to. How awesome is it when you make \$5k in your sleep, while a bunch of APs you took action with hit the progressive? What about driving down to the casino, to have someone else you had action with take it down? How about hitting a crazy +ev sports parlay?

All these things you want to share. You want people to see what you're accomplishing. You want people to be jealous. You want the fame that comes with being a professional gambler. Not you in particular, but generally we want to see some acknowledgement for our actions.

Well I resign my position because that is definitely checkmate! Nicely done... written simple and clear enough for me to get clarity and closure. Definitely outclassed and a bit jealous since I've never made 5k while sleeping. Depressed now... time for a nap!
djatc
• Posts: 4477
Joined: Jan 15, 2013
July 15th, 2017 at 3:32:41 AM permalink
Quote: monet0412

Well I resign my position because that is definitely checkmate! Nicely done... written simple and clear enough for me to get clarity and closure. Definitely outclassed and a bit jealous since I've never made 5k while sleeping. Depressed now... time for a nap!

Waking up to the last game of a half point parlay is pretty fun when every other leg has won. Someone you took action on hitting a progressive that would take hours upon hours while you're driving to the casino is fun. Hitting a royal when picking up FP is pretty fun. Charging your dead phone and seeing messages of people with +\$\$\$ totals on a play is fun too.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Arennwen
• Posts: 5
Joined: Jul 14, 2017
July 15th, 2017 at 4:05:13 AM permalink
Very interesting is what you wrote, try your system at game)
KevinAA
• Posts: 283
Joined: Jul 6, 2017
July 18th, 2017 at 10:51:23 AM permalink
So apparently no one is interested in probability distribution of winnings over a single session. The only thing that matters is expected value. Variance means nothing! It's either ignore the machine completely, or shove as much cash into it as needed and continue to press buttons until you win the jackpot.

I will be happy to explain what "probability distribution" means if people want to hear, but only after getting an apology for being attacked. I am not going to waste my time trying to explain something to people who have their ears closed. If people are going to be rude to me, then I'll be rude back. If people are civil, I'll be civil. It's that simple.

I never said that my system GUARANTEES a win. In fact, I made it explicitly clear that it doesn't. Look at the results... only 1/3 of the time do you win!
Mosca
• Posts: 4141
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
July 18th, 2017 at 11:58:20 AM permalink
Quote: KevinAA

So apparently no one is interested in probability distribution of winnings over a single session. The only thing that matters is expected value. Variance means nothing! It's either ignore the machine completely, or shove as much cash into it as needed and continue to press buttons until you win the jackpot.

I will be happy to explain what "probability distribution" means if people want to hear, but only after getting an apology for being attacked. I am not going to waste my time trying to explain something to people who have their ears closed. If people are going to be rude to me, then I'll be rude back. If people are civil, I'll be civil. It's that simple.

I never said that my system GUARANTEES a win. In fact, I made it explicitly clear that it doesn't. Look at the results... only 1/3 of the time do you win!

Quote: KevinAA

This "betting system" is a way to guide you in a completely objective manner as to when to press the cash out button (rather than relying on emotions which favor the casino), so that you don't give back winnings too often, but also don't give up too soon and walk away with a very small win.

I just don't see how it is any different from mashing the button and then randomly deciding to leave, whether by following the system, or having to pee, or being hungry, or the game is on, or the bus is leaving, or whatever. Probability distributions don't take past results into account when describing possible future outcomes: previous results are no longer probabilities.
A falling knife has no handle.
KevinAA
• Posts: 283
Joined: Jul 6, 2017
July 18th, 2017 at 12:16:02 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

I just don't see how it is any different from mashing the button and then randomly deciding to leave, whether by following the system, or having to pee, or being hungry, or the game is on, or the bus is leaving, or whatever. Probability distributions don't take past results into account when describing possible future outcomes: previous results are no longer probabilities.

If you decide to leave at some random time, then the probability distribution of winnings will be different. What it is will depend on the probability density of your "walk away" function. Let's say that it is exponential. That is, the probability of still being there at time t (in hours) is exp(-t*k) where k is some constant. If your "walk away" function is a 75% chance of still being there one hour from now, it means k is such that exp(-1*k)=0.75 ==> k=0.287682. If your "walk away" function is faster, say a 25% chance of still being there one hour from now, it means k is such that exp(-1*k)=0.25 ==> k=1.386294. Higher k ==> walk away sooner. Higher k ==> probability distribution of winnings from playing the slot machine will be more spread out. Lower k ==> play longer. Lower k ==> probability distribution of winnings from playing the slot machine will be more concentrated. If you sit there 'forever', where k is approaching 0, then the probability distribution of winnings from playing the slot machine will be very narrowly centered around the mean, making it almost impossible to win if the payback percentage is less than 100%.

The purpose of my system is to make a decision as to when to stop (call it "stop loss/stop win" if you will) that will result in a particular probability distribution of winnings, rather than an unknown probability distribution of winnings. It has nothing to do with past results.

For example, the probability of winning a roulette single spot (American version) is 1/38. That is a known probability even though you don't know if you're going to win or not before the spin. The equivalent of playing a slot machine for some random amount of time at the roulette table is to put on a blindfold and throw your chips at the board, then after the spin starts, take off your blindfold and watch. The house edge doesn't change, of course, but the probability distribution of winnings is different (unknown to you because you bet blindfolded) rather than choosing what bets to make. The probability distribution of winnings at roulette depends on what bets you make -- red/black vs 2 spots vs 6 spots vs 1 spot etc.
monet0412
• Posts: 627
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
July 18th, 2017 at 12:38:35 PM permalink
Quote: KevinAA

So apparently no one is interested in probability distribution of winnings over a single session. The only thing that matters is expected value. Variance means nothing! It's either ignore the machine completely, or shove as much cash into it as needed and continue to press buttons until you win the jackpot.

I will be happy to explain what "probability distribution" means if people want to hear, but only after getting an apology for being attacked. I am not going to waste my time trying to explain something to people who have their ears closed. If people are going to be rude to me, then I'll be rude back. If people are civil, I'll be civil. It's that simple.

I never said that my system GUARANTEES a win. In fact, I made it explicitly clear that it doesn't. Look at the results... only 1/3 of the time do you win!

The difference between you and I is that if you play the machines I tell you to when the jackpots are at a certain number you will always win over time. I would guarantee your in the positive every year.
Mosca
• Posts: 4141
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
July 18th, 2017 at 12:50:54 PM permalink
Quote: KevinAA

If you decide to leave at some random time, then the probability distribution of winnings will be different. What it is will depend on the probability density of your "walk away" function. Let's say that it is exponential. That is, the probability of still being there at time t (in hours) is exp(-t*k) where k is some constant. If your "walk away" function is a 75% chance of still being there one hour from now, it means k is such that exp(-1*k)=0.75 ==> k=0.287682. If your "walk away" function is faster, say a 25% chance of still being there one hour from now, it means k is such that exp(-1*k)=0.25 ==> k=1.386294. Higher k ==> walk away sooner. Higher k ==> probability distribution of winnings from playing the slot machine will be more spread out. Lower k ==> play longer. Lower k ==> probability distribution of winnings from playing the slot machine will be more concentrated. If you sit there 'forever', where k is approaching 0, then the probability distribution of winnings from playing the slot machine will be very narrowly centered around the mean, making it almost impossible to win if the payback percentage is less than 100%.

The purpose of my system is to make a decision as to when to stop (call it "stop loss/stop win" if you will) that will result in a particular probability distribution of winnings, rather than an unknown probability distribution of winnings. It has nothing to do with past results.

For example, the probability of winning a roulette single spot (American version) is 1/38. That is a known probability even though you don't know if you're going to win or not before the spin. The equivalent of playing a slot machine for some random amount of time at the roulette table is to put on a blindfold and throw your chips at the board, then after the spin starts, take off your blindfold and watch. The house edge doesn't change, of course, but the probability distribution of winnings is different (unknown to you because you bet blindfolded) rather than choosing what bets to make. The probability distribution of winnings at roulette depends on what bets you make -- red/black vs 2 spots vs 6 spots vs 1 spot etc.

Results that have already happened are no longer probabilities, and cannot be counted in probability distributions. What happened prior to you walking into the casino? It doesn't matter, does it? And the reason is that you are looking forward, not backward. So as soon as you get a result, you can no longer use it to make probability distribution calculations.
A falling knife has no handle.
gamerfreak
• Posts: 3540
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
July 18th, 2017 at 1:13:00 PM permalink
Quote: monet0412

The difference between you and I is that if you play the machines I tell you to when the jackpots are at a certain number you will always win over time. I would guarantee your in the positive every year.

Quote: monet0412

The other problem for me is I can't show anyone the math on reel machines. I can only tell you that I've put millions upon millions of coin and spins through and I know what can be done. Also some inside information about theoretical return from management that I tip so sometimes tipping can be profitable. Of course I'm not certain they have the correct Theo... but like I said... I really don't know much I'm just a pinball banging around in the Casinos playing games all day and night just firing torpedoes!!

I have a question for you, and it goes right along with the topic of the OP, stop loss!

I understand that a significant amount of your knowledge on slot AP has been acquired from banging away on these machines for several years over millions of coin-in. You must have quite a few -EV pulls under your belt while scouting profitable plays. Do you budget a certain percentage of your winnings to go towards "research and development", so to speak? At what point do you realize a particular game/jackpot/slot club/promotion just isn't beatable and move on?