Betting system for slot machines
Quote: MoscaResults that have already happened are no longer probabilities, and cannot be counted in probability distributions. What happened prior to you walking into the casino? It doesn't matter, does it? And the reason is that you are looking forward, not backward. So as soon as you get a result, you can no longer use it to make probability distribution calculations.
I never said it did. The probability distribution of winnings is measured at the time you being playing, and the observed results occur when you either walk away broke or press the cash out button. In between, you are just playing the game.
If you need to go pee, hit cash out, put the voucher in your pocket, use the restroom, and then put the voucher back in the machine and pick up where you left off. You could cash out, go home, return three months later, and put the same amount of cash in the machine and pick up where you left off (hopefully it's $18.00, a ten, a five, and three ones, not $18.26, but that's a minor thing). The probability distribution of winnings from the point that you begin playing has nothing to do with how much time elapses between spins. It can be a second, 5 seconds, 10 minutes, or 3 months. It matters not.
When you're done playing, you could write down the results, and then do it again, over and over and over, until you have lots and lots of data points, and then plot them on a graph, with winnings on the x-axis and frequency on the y-axis. That's a probability distribution. It tells you the probability of winning a certain amount or within a certain range.
Obviously playing a slot machine with a +EV is ideal but I have no idea how to identify those machines. I can still win on a -EV machine as long as I'm on the right side of the probability distribution curve. Likewise, at a +EV machine, you can still lose if you're on the left side of the probability distribution curve (unless you play long enough to get into law of large numbers land). The same applies to BJ AP. Even with perfect counting and changing your bet from $5 to $50 (and a dumbass pit boss apparently), you can be unlucky and still lose. Likewise, with flat betting, you can still win by being lucky and landing on the right side of the probability distribution curve for blackjack.
Just so everyone knows... I never win on reels. It's all been a sham. All the jackpot pictures I have posted aren't even mine. I found them on the internet. I don't even live in Vegas... I was only vacationing when I met AxelWolf and ZK.
"God damn alligator bit my hand off! ...cut me down in ma prime!"Quote: monet0412..I was wrong you were right. I'm stupid ... your smart. Your good looking... I'm not so attractive...
Quote: gamerfreakI have a question for you, and it goes right along with the topic of the OP, stop loss!
I understand that a significant amount of your knowledge on slot AP has been acquired from banging away on these machines for several years over millions of coin-in. You must have quite a few -EV pulls under your belt while scouting profitable plays. Do you budget a certain percentage of your winnings to go towards "research and development", so to speak? At what point do you realize a particular game/jackpot/slot club/promotion just isn't beatable and move on?
I didn't realize that it was you who posted this question... since it is you I will help you understand somewhat. I've been in town a long time. Over 25 years on and off but mostly on. Some of the information is passed down or by word of mouth. Other information is through Employees. I don't just go around looking at machines and testing. Although like today I was at a Casino because my wife's card got locked out. So low and behold I was looking at these Double Jackpot 777 Machines last night at the same place and I noticed that they had three machines. 2200... 2700... and 5800. I am not sure what the Jackpot starts at but I was thinking 1000 and after talking to a slot attendant they said it was 2000 but I still am not sure. What I can tell you is all of a sudden the meters were something like 2700... 11,750... and 5800. This kind of thing sparks my interest. Obviously they moved some money from one machine to that one. Most likely because it isn't very common to hit the jackpot or those machines aren't getting any play. I didn't investigate any further but I did fire off 1000 dollars at it and it is 5 dollars a spin and they are the newer reels that you can stop immediately. They kinda seem like video reels but look like mechanical reels. That doesn't matter. On average will I be able to spin off the top jackpot of 11,750 before I lose 12,000 is the question I ask myself? If the jackpot starts at 1k I would without a doubt believe I can. If it starts at 2k I still like my chances. I really didn't have the time to hammer it long. I ended up losing the 1k and had to do other things but it is on my radar now. I most likely will take 10k and see what happens. This is an example of pure speculation and scouting that I might do.
Most of what I do is on machines I have known for many years. I know the hold not only from Employees but over time I have played so much that I know that I lose so much per hour or per how much coin I put it. I am not out there testing machines. I do what I can to find out what the hold is. I stay away from new machines... I like the older type of reels and it is a smaller loop than you might think. I'm not out there in every casino testing every machine. I think I have said enough. The information is free and you can either understand what I am saying and choose to believe it or not. I am just sharing some of what or how I do things.
Quote: KevinAAIf you have $10 or $20 or even $100 to put into a slot machine, my system works great. If you want to have a 99+% chance of losing your entire bankroll instead of just 1/3, go with monet0412's system where you shove in the cash and keep hitting spin until you win the jackpot. Obviously the more cash you shove in, the better your chances of winning the jackpot. $100 is low chances, $10 is even worse, but $1000 is better. $10,000 better still. Personally I don't like that system, because a) I don't have thousands of dollars laying around for this; and b) I'm perfectly happy with an even-steven win of zero (net zero), or a small win, and I still have a chance to win the jackpot. Jackpot or nothing is extremely risky. Your money will last much longer with a stop-loss/stop-win method. If you have an unlimited amount of money and time to throw at slot machines, then ignore my method and go with monet0412's method.
Honestly if you do not have a large Bankroll you should not even think about messing with Reels. A player should play Video Poker with smaller Bankrolls. You need to be able to put massive amount of time and money through Reels for it to pay off in the end and you need to know what reels to play and what number the jackpots have to be to turn the game into a positive. Even though you don't have to lock a machine down till you spin off the jackpot... I find that it is the best way to play. You only have to play that Reel machine when the Progressive is over a certain number but if you don't take the time to spin them off you shouldn't even bother. Some Vision Machines are different like Rock around the Clock or Aladdin or that Zombie game yelling play play play at you ever two seconds. Many others but why even bother explaining all this to everyone. Play VP... much less headache and you really can't lose.
I like to mix Reels into my play because it looks like I'm a maniac :)
Quote: monet0412Honestly if you do not have a large Bankroll you should not even think about messing with Reels. A player should play Video Poker with smaller Bankrolls. You need to be able to put massive amount of time and money through Reels for it to pay off in the end and you need to know what reels to play and what number the jackpots have to be to turn the game into a positive. Some Vision Machines are different like Rock around the Clock or Aladdin or that Zombie game yelling play play play at you ever two seconds. Many others but why even bother explaining all this to everyone. Play VP... much less headache and you really can't lose.
I usually play video poker, but after a while I get bored and want to do something else. I don't have thousands of dollars laying around, and the nearest casino is 5 hours away. I really do not care if a slot machine takes 8% of my bet, because the amount I'm wagering is something like $500 a YEAR.
A couple of months ago I put $60 into a Double Diamond $1 5 line slot machine with a jackpot of 5,000 coins, and my balance fell to $47 and then I got jackpot symbols on line 5 -- $5,000! That was great! Of course the IRS got 25% of that, leaving me with $3,750, but given how much I've gambled at slot machines my entire life, I'm pretty sure I'm up now (by at least $1,000).
I'm not going to stop just to say "I'm up, life-to-date, on slot machines". I'm still going to play occasionally just like I did before. Losing $100 a year to the casino at the slot machines isn't going to break me. It provides many hours of entertainment.
Quote: MoscaResults that have already happened are no longer probabilities, and cannot be counted in probability distributions. What happened prior to you walking into the casino? It doesn't matter, does it? And the reason is that you are looking forward, not backward. So as soon as you get a result, you can no longer use it to make probability distribution calculations.
TWEEEEET! (Referee's whistle stopping play)
Is that true also from the view of Bayesian statistics? Where your assumed "prior" is refined by data as you collect it?
For example, at Lucky's Casino there is one game. You dip your hand into a large container holding red and green marbles. It costs $1 each time you retrieve a marble. Red marbles pay you nothing. Geen marbles pay $100.
On your first visit, you buy 1000 "plays," and you get 2 green marbles.
On your next visit you buy 1000 "plays," and you get 5 green marbles.
Others who do this kind of analysis for a living may disagree. However, I think those results -- if they were mine -- would affect my probability calculations going forward. I'm not sure that differs significantly from earlier discussions about the OP's suggested play. Just my 2 cents...
Quote: LuckyPhowTWEEEEET! (Referee's whistle stopping play)
Is that true also from the view of Bayesian statistics? Where your assumed "prior" is refined by data as you collect it?
For example, at Lucky's Casino there is one game. You dip your hand into a large container holding red and green marbles. It costs $1 each time you retrieve a marble. Red marbles pay you nothing. Geen marbles pay $100.
On your first visit, you buy 1000 "plays," and you get 2 green marbles.
On your next visit you buy 1000 "plays," and you get 5 green marbles.
Others who do this kind of analysis for a living may disagree. However, I think those results -- if they were mine -- would affect my probability calculations going forward. I'm not sure that differs significantly from earlier discussions about the OP's suggested play. Just my 2 cents...
If you know how many green marbles there are, then you know the probability of winning, and your results of 2 and 5 are just data points.
But if you don't know how many green marbles there are, then you need those results in order to estimate the probability of winning. The estimated probability of winning would be 7/2000 (really bad since a zero house edge probability would be 20 in 2000).
Either way, once you have an estimated or exactly right probability of winning, you can construct a probability distribution of winning based on how many plays you buy.
Quote: LuckyPhowTWEEEEET! (Referee's whistle stopping play)
Is that true also from the view of Bayesian statistics? Where your assumed "prior" is refined by data as you collect it?
For example, at Lucky's Casino there is one game. You dip your hand into a large container holding red and green marbles. It costs $1 each time you retrieve a marble. Red marbles pay you nothing. Geen marbles pay $100.
On your first visit, you buy 1000 "plays," and you get 2 green marbles.
On your next visit you buy 1000 "plays," and you get 5 green marbles.
Others who do this kind of analysis for a living may disagree. However, I think those results -- if they were mine -- would affect my probability calculations going forward. I'm not sure that differs significantly from earlier discussions about the OP's suggested play. Just my 2 cents...
Oh hell, I don't know. My honest opinion is:
1) Too much math for $1-$3 bets on slot machines.
2) If I wanted to make money, I'd go to work instead of to the casino. (I recognize that APing is a living for some, and I respect that. It's not work I'm interested in.)
3) I went back and re-read KevinAA's original post. I understand how varying the "floor" affects the amount won and lost, but it still doesn't matter. If you stop at (lose half), then walk back into the casino a week later and lose the same amount, it is the same as losing all the week before. It appears to me to be just a game to make pushing the button interesting. There's nothing wrong with that, but it is an illusion that you're winning, unless you stop when you're ahead.
KevinAA, yes you said that there is a better chance of losing than winning. And I see how you are trading "a better chance of winning" for the possibility of losing half your bankroll. But I still don't see how it is anything more than artificial stop loss. In the end it is still mashing buttons into the teeth of the house edge. (Unless you have done your research, like others here have tried to communicate.)
as far as i last heard he is giving it all back trying to win again. Also after he won he stared to play roulette with some of the money at 250 per spin.
i doubt he has much left by now.
before he won the 15.5k he was approx 12k in debt having lost the money playing slots/roulette, therefore he is not in profit at all since prior to the 12k debt he had lost other monies.
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another person i know went to play slots, changed machines a few times, didn't play more than 30 spins and won 16.3k, that was about 3 years ago, she is a regular slots players, plays almost every day with approx 100 budget. She has not won a jackpot since, and no doubt has given back that 16.3k win!
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a slot engineer i spoke with in a casino told me 110% the payouts are random, he said you could win a jackpot one min, change machines and when another jackpot.
I'm not so sure, i think they control all machines externally, they watch ppl on cameras and decide who they want to win. also they want to create a buzz so ppl tend to win when the casino is busy so a lot of ppl notice. but i can't prove this.
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another time i remember that all at the same time 14 machines paid the same jackpot. casino manager said it was an error and no one got paid!
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I'm not a slot expert, far from it just hear things, see things.
Quote: Tomfish
a slot engineer i spoke with in a casino told me 110% the payouts are random, he said you could win a jackpot one min, change machines and when another jackpot.
I'm not so sure, i think they control all machines externally, they watch ppl on cameras and decide who they want to win. also they want to create a buzz so ppl tend to win when the casino is busy so a lot of ppl notice. but i can't prove this.
Let me understand this: Rather than just hold 10% (sometimes more) with minimum surveillance effort, you think that they watch from the eye of the sky and deciding who gets to win and who gets to lose that day? They then transmit some sort of signal to the machine that it should hit a jackpot?
Let's pretend for a second that never in the history of every casino in the country there has been a disgruntled former employee that would go public with that kind of information...and have proof. Having stipulated that, what possible advantage would deciding who wins and who loses have for the casino? I mean, I don't know why you are even conceiving that this is a sensible notion, so I don't have a counter argument at the ready, I would have to understand why you even postulate that this is a possibility first, which I don't.
Secondly, when it comes to jackpots, does it not make sense that jackpots would correlate to busier times for the casino simply by virtue of the fact that there are more people playing at the time? If you have a full slot floor as opposed to a largely empty one, in general terms, would one not expect that a full slot floor would be more likely to have at least one machine hit a jackpot at any given time?
Quote: Tomfishsix weeks ago someone i know won 15.5k on the slots, a week after that he won 11k =over 26k
as far as i last heard he is giving it all back trying to win again. Also after he won he stared to play roulette with some of the money at 250 per spin.
i doubt he has much left by now.
before he won the 15.5k he was approx 12k in debt having lost the money playing slots/roulette, therefore he is not in profit at all since prior to the 12k debt he had lost other monies.
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another person i know went to play slots, changed machines a few times, didn't play more than 30 spins and won 16.3k, that was about 3 years ago, she is a regular slots players, plays almost every day with approx 100 budget. She has not won a jackpot since, and no doubt has given back that 16.3k win!
......................
a slot engineer i spoke with in a casino told me 110% the payouts are random, he said you could win a jackpot one min, change machines and when another jackpot.
I'm not so sure, i think they control all machines externally, they watch ppl on cameras and decide who they want to win. also they want to create a buzz so ppl tend to win when the casino is busy so a lot of ppl notice. but i can't prove this.
.............................
another time i remember that all at the same time 14 machines paid the same jackpot. casino manager said it was an error and no one got paid!
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I'm not a slot expert, far from it just hear things, see things.
wow. I can't even.....
Quote: Mission146Let me understand this: Rather than just hold 10% (sometimes more) with minimum surveillance effort, you think that they watch from the eye of the sky and deciding who gets to win and who gets to lose that day? They then transmit some sort of signal to the machine that it should hit a jackpot?
Let's pretend for a second that never in the history of every casino in the country there has been a disgruntled former employee that would go public with that kind of information...and have proof. Having stipulated that, what possible advantage would deciding who wins and who loses have for the casino? I mean, I don't know why you are even conceiving that this is a sensible notion, so I don't have a counter argument at the ready, I would have to understand why you even postulate that this is a possibility first, which I don't.
Secondly, when it comes to jackpots, does it not make sense that jackpots would correlate to busier times for the casino simply by virtue of the fact that there are more people playing at the time? If you have a full slot floor as opposed to a largely empty one, in general terms, would one not expect that a full slot floor would be more likely to have at least one machine hit a jackpot at any given time?
Oh... you better believe this!! Tomfish has leaked out the truth that some of us have known for a very long time. Didn't you all watch that Flintstone Movie with John Goodman?? Old Fred was killing the Casino until the owner pulled the "Lose" switch. MtherF'ers!! I remember the whole strip was in an uproar because you can't show real life truth like that on any type of media platform.
I just wonder if Tomfish likes Fish?? I mean I love Fish!! I think Fish are my favorite thing to eat when I play poker! If Tomfish ever comes to Vegas I would love to meet up and play any limit or any freeze out of his/her choice!!
Quote: monet0412
I just wonder if Tomfish likes Fish?? I mean I love Fish!! I think Fish are my favorite thing to eat when I play poker! If Tomfish ever comes to Vegas I would love to meet up and play any limit or any freeze out of his/her choice!!
The good news for you is, if he actually believes any of this, he might already be fried.
Quote: Mission146The good news for you is, if he actually believes any of this, he might already be fried.
I love fish, fish for tomfish
One line x max bet . I only play once per day usually,
on a 1cent machine buy in is $5 , 2cent is $10 ie 500 to 1 . I only play a machine that pays scatter symbols for free spin trigger never play a reel 3,4,5 etc activates feature/ free spin. The substitute symbol must appear any reel as well ie cleopatra or bats n hats etc. this is my reasoning behind what I’m listing here
Many years ago I played all lines on slot machine I have posted here in a previous post (another thread )that I won 60free spins consecutively on$1 machine and was payed less than $60 returns. No joy .
Also to continue reasoning , many times in the past I would be on my last credit on that machine press one line to use it up and three things would happen
1) lose last credit (mostly)
2) get a free spin of 15 games or so
3) get 5 of a kind , 4 of a kind or 3 of a kind plus a substitute = a pay out.
It became a joke ha ha typical last credit win ha ha , then I started thinking that I should just max bet one line.
Instead of hundreds of $ for small or no return I went small amount to get max return.
When I hit at max one line I can earn $80 plus for 20crnt outlay, drives people sitting next to me nuts they bet$3/$4 per spin nothing me 20/30cents jackpots. I’ve won more minor jackpot that way than playing all lines max.
If someone can let me know how to post a photo from iPhone to this thread I will post a screenshot of today’s play. I put in $5 on a 2 cent machine and bet 10x 2 cent credits ( max bet ) by one line. If I had burnt the first$5 on that machine ie nil return l would put in the next $5 ( as l had said 500to 1 on that machine @ 2 cents = $10 outlay = 50 spins x one line. ) in that machine or may decide not to continue.
Yes if big win ie mini jackpot l may have a shot at another machine at the same rules etc.
Oh if I lose that initial $5 /10$ I put in machine for no return that’s it for the day as far as slots is concern, comes back tomorrow do again.
As I’ve stated re sports betting posts you do get to the stage you are using casino/ bookies money to play the next day bet , stay with in budget and you can do same re slots.
Oh but $80 I hear you say is not much, others say it slow and boring, I like boring , it’s not my money yesterday yesterday’s is paying for today and today’s tomorrow.
It really adds up , as I use a bankroll for gambling , pay myself end of week etc.
kind regards.
