My Baccarat Win Streak

Hi,

I'm new here but have been gambling for a long time now and have been lurking here for quite some time. I just want to share my 20th Baccarat win streak today. I just choose what shoe to play, and the moment I win one unit from that shoe I stand up. So far I have left the casino a winner 20x in a row now. I just choose a streaky shoe that's all. As I am playing in Macau and Philippines there are tons of Baccarat tables here!!!

I know sooner or later my streak will end but for now I celebrate. What is the probability my streak will last a life time thou? haha.
Happy gambling to everyone!

If you quit now then you can tell people you have never lost at Baccarat in your life!

Do you ever play Pai Gow tiles there in Macau?

Quote: onebac

...What is the probability my streak will last a life time...

If you never gamble again : 1.

Seriously it sounds as if you're trying a martingale type of system that gains 1 unit most the time but loses a bundle once in a blue moon. To see 20 consecutive wins is actually fairly likely.

If you only went bust if you lost 10 hands in a row, then you'd expect to win about 600 times before having a 50% chance of going bust. That's the fallacy of Martingale systems, they sound as if they work until you hit the big out.

Quote: TigerWu

If you quit now then you can tell people you have never lost at Baccarat in your life!

Do you ever play Pai Gow tiles there in Macau?

Well I lost before as I am not a new gambler, its just that this has been the longest streak I had ever. :)
I only play baccarat, roulette(before) and blackjack. But now I only play bac, its so easy and fast.

Quote: charliepatrick

If you never gamble again : 1.

Seriously it sounds as if you're trying a martingale type of system that gains 1 unit most the time but loses a bundle once in a blue moon. To see 20 consecutive wins is actually fairly likely.

If you only went bust if you lost 10 hands in a row, then you'd expect to win about 600 times before having a 50% chance of going bust. That's the fallacy of Martingale systems, they sound as if they work until you hit the big out.

I know Martingale, and have been burned before using it..
I'm not new to gambling. I just decided one day I'll quit my casino session every time I go up even if its one unit of my bank roll, if I won't be up even once then that means I blew up my whole bankroll. The biggest bet I make is 2 units of my bank roll and that's it. My bankroll is 20units(2k, so 1 unit is 100.)For now, lady luck is on my side, I hope it stays with me for much long thou. I'm not counting on it much.

Effectively you're betting 20 units to win 1. Someone will know the exact chances but suppose it's similar to playing double-zero roulette and making 1 unit every time there isn't either zero - probability of losing is 1/19th. You could play for hours and never see either zero. Your chances of winning 20 spins at is about 1/3.

Quitting while you're ahead as being a way to win at gambling is maybe the most long lived myth about how to win in a casino. It would work if you happened to win a very small amount on your first outing and then quit. But only if you never came back. What guarantee is there that you will ever get ahead? No guarantee. What guarantee is there that you will ever hit your target? No guarantee. You imagine that a gambling clock has stopped when you leave the casino ahead. But the clock is artificial. It never really stopped if you come back. If you had $1 million bankroll and were betting only $5.00 it's very possible you could lose the whole million without ever getting ahead if you're playing a negative expectation game.

I'm going for 21st and 22nd straight casino session win this weekend. If I blew up my 2k bank roll that's fine as the 20th straight wins I had I already have about 2.5k$ win, so it will cover that. And if I blew all the 2k I won't go above it and I'll quit when that happens, but for this year only. :) I knew I got lucky and there's no guarantees so wish me luck guys.

Quote: onebac

I'm going for 21st and 22nd straight casino session win this weekend. If I blew up my 2k bank roll that's fine as the 20th straight wins I had I already have about 2.5k$ win, so it will cover that. And if I blew all the 2k I won't go above it and I'll quit when that happens, but for this year only. :) I knew I got lucky and there's no guarantees so wish me luck guys.

sounds like you're having fun. good luck

Thank you for sharing your experience.

Quote: onebac

I know Martingale, and have been burned before using it..
I'm not new to gambling. I just decided one day I'll quit my casino session every time I go up even if its one unit of my bank roll, if I won't be up even once then that means I blew up my whole bankroll. The biggest bet I make is 2 units of my bank roll and that's it. My bankroll is 20units(2k, so 1 unit is 100.)For now, lady luck is on my side, I hope it stays with me for much long thou. I'm not counting on it much.

Welcome to the forum. Enjoy the variance and I wish you good luck for the future.
If for each session you put at risk 20 units and always restrict your win to 1 units, by leaving at that point, then each session has a win probability of about 95% and the chances of winning 20 consecutive sessions is very roughly 0.95^20 = 35%

https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/2/#post1370

Your best chance of being a lifetime winner is to kill yourself now :) ( only kidding). As others have recommended: Stop playing, or curtail your betting with unit size much much smaller.

bac has low enough HE that yes some people if lucky will be lifetime winners

yeah, the people that run the games.

Quote: Confessor

bac has low enough HE that yes some people if lucky will be lifetime winners

Disagree entirely. Take a look at blackjack. There are plenty of games with HALF the house edge of baccarat, yet it can be proven that a regular "basic strategy" player WILL LOSE within their lifetime. Now double the house edge...

Quote: Confessor

bac has low enough HE that yes some people if lucky will be lifetime winners

really depends on how many bets R made over a lifetime.

say 1 million of them (bets and people)
or team play
(40 bets each day for 70 years)

pass line at craps
baccarat Banker, player
Blackjack basic player

we expect not even 1 to still be even or ahead
(flat betting)

but
craps pass line with odds
345x odds
2,000 still even or ahead

10x odds
expect 1 in 10 to be even or ahead or about
95,390

20X odds
248,301
still even or ahead

and best part
no strategy to ever remember
just flat bet and take the odds

Oh, the don't pass players would do even better
*****
but most have no clue on what house edge is
the take all when lose and short pay on a win

so it is fun to watch those
that think they can win, but don,t

and those told they can't win
but do
funny
Sally

no math used as all say math is dumb and never required

every Bacc player (including my Mom)
think after 20 days of winning (they R greaT)
they can win forever

now that is funny
LOL

So let's take the math reply =P...

Average number of cards is ~4.94 (from the Wiz Q/A), so let's say 5 per hand (player + banker).

If they burn 10 cards on average (over estimating), in an 8 deck shoe that would leave 406 cards. They put the cut card at 13 cards and deal 1 hand after that. So that removes an additional 8 cards on average, leaving 398 cards to play... 398/5 = 79.6, so let's say 80, hands to play per shoe.

Say you play ONE baccarat shoe once per week, with an average bet of $25.... that's 80 hands per week. Say you do this from the time you're 40-60... 52 weeks per year... 52*20 = 1040 weeks, which you're playing 80 hands per week... 1040*80 = 83,200 hands in your 20 year span (if you're younger you'd play even longer, but alas, let's again ROUND DOWN for our estimations).

So what's your EV/SD's for 83,200 hands (with a $25 avg bet)? Let's even pretend you ALWAYS bet banker for better odds!

EV(83,200 hands) = (83,200*25)*(.01064) = -$22,131.20

more importantly let's look at the Standard Deviations! As this will tell us with X% certainty what your possible upswings/downswings over this time period could be...

OriginalSD = .94*AvgBet = .94*25 = 23.5

SD(83,200 hands) = Sqrt(83,200)*23.5 = $6,778.44... one SD = 68% confidence, 2 = 95% and 3 = 99%... thus, to be 99% confident... 3SD = $20,335.31


So what does it all mean????
Well, with ROUNDING DOWN every step of the way, after 20 years, playing one shoe per week, with an average bet of $25, always betting the banker, one could expect to LOSE $22,131.20 +/- $20,335.31.

Absolute best case "luck" scenario = -22,131.20 + 20,335.31 = -$1,795.89
Absolute worst case "luck" scenario = -22,131.20 - 20,335.31 = -$42,466.51

With your average being just your EV of -$22,131.20.... and all of that is with 99% certainty, mathematically.

It's easy to calculate the odds by throwing the variance and house edge into a table and calculating the odds of being ahead or behind after n trials.

People who claim to have working systems are just lucky. The math can never support it. There is no way to take a game that has a negative house advantage and make it positive. Basic rules of math (you can't turn a negative into a positive) unless you claim you have power over the dice, are counting cards, or are performing some sort of advantage play.

Martingales will always after time run into its ginormous loss where you hit your table limit.

Quote: Confessor

bac has low enough HE that yes some people if lucky will be lifetime winners

Define "lifetime".

I was under the impression that variance (or maybe max win?) was a better determination of how likely a game is to produce a lifetime winner.

Lifetime winner is sort of a loaded term, but for example, I think there's more lifetime winners on slot machines with a 10% HE that has the possibility to hit a $30k progressive, as opposed to a game like baccarat/BJ with a much lower house edge, but no one will ever win $30k playing green chips for even money (sans a side bet, maybe).

Romes, 99% certainty is not good enough. In fact 99.9% certainty is not enough.

Example: If you can land a plane without crashing 99.9% of the time, you would have about a thousand crashes a day at O'Hare . 99.9% becomes "only" 99.9%. Not good enough.

Although that is a cautionary fact about necessary degrees in the realm of public safety, 99% certainty means something to a single person but allows a substantial number for the 1% in the thousands of people who must play BJ regularly. Nobody has the odds stacked worse against them than those who play the state lotteries, yet still there are winners.

Quote: odiousgambit

Example: If you can land a plane without crashing 99.9% of the time, you would have about a thousand crashes a day at O'Hare . 99.9% becomes "only" 99.9%. Not good enough.

One thousand crashes a day at a 1/1000 crash rate = 1 million landings/day.
O'Hare has 8 active runways.

So that's 1.44 planes landing per second per runway.

Damn that's a busy airport.

Quote: odiousgambit

Romes, 99% certainty is not good enough. In fact 99.9% certainty is not enough.

Example: If you can land a plane without crashing 99.9% of the time, you would have about a thousand crashes a day at O'Hare . 99.9% becomes "only" 99.9%. Not good enough.

Although that is a cautionary fact about necessary degrees in the realm of public safety, 99% certainty means something to a single person but allows a substantial number for the 1% in the thousands of people who must play BJ regularly. Nobody has the odds stacked worse against them than those who play the state lotteries, yet still there are winners.

Apples and oranges when comparing 99.9% of losers in state lotteries and checking the probability someone will lose in their lifetime of baccarat.

The only thing they have in common: I'll be you as much as you want on both the 99.9% holding up to a test =). aka I'll bet you that you lose if you get a lottery ticket, and I'll bet you'll be a loser if you play baccarat for 83,200+ hands.

99.7% (3SD) is beyond good enough to make an accurate assessment of claims that people can be long term winners in Baccarat. It's also beyond good enough to run figures for other AP (.3% RoR is absolutely professionally acceptable). Do you think everyone goes PAST 3SD in AP? Some do, but many do not. Hole carding UTH has ~13% HE, but the variance is wild beyond belief. How many people out there have more than 3SD worth of a bankroll to play that game? answer: lol.. variance = 24.28, SD = 4.9 (more than 4x blackjack and your average bet will be ~4x your ante bet, and for AP's betting decent money, that's a lot).

Quote: sabre

One thousand crashes a day at a 1/1000 crash rate = 1 million landings/day.
O'Hare has 8 active runways.

So that's 1.44 planes landing per second per runway.

Damn that's a busy airport.

I was being careful not to screw that up but probably did. Must be 1000 crashes a year or so - several a day.

Quote: Romes

Apples and oranges when comparing 99.9% of losers in state lotteries and checking the probability someone will lose in their lifetime of baccarat.

The only thing they have in common: I'll be you as much as you want on both the 99.9% holding up to a test =). aka I'll bet you that you lose if you get a lottery ticket, and I'll bet you'll be a loser if you play baccarat for 83,200+ hands.

99.7% (3SD) is beyond good enough to make an accurate assessment of claims that people can be long term winners in Baccarat. It's also beyond good enough to run figures for other AP (.3% RoR is absolutely professionally acceptable). Do you think everyone goes PAST 3SD in AP? Some do, but many do not. Hole carding UTH has ~13% HE, but the variance is wild beyond belief. How many people out there have more than 3SD worth of a bankroll to play that game? answer: lol.. variance = 24.28, SD = 4.9 (more than 4x blackjack and your average bet will be ~4x your ante bet, and for AP's betting decent money, that's a lot).

well, you know, there's the way of the world, which says if you need the money you can forget it.

99.9% [ or 99.7%] is roughly 1 in a thousand. I don't know about 1000 people but I can say that for 1000 trials, which doesn't seem like a lot, you wind up with an integer. 99%, quoted before, is definitely not excluding whole numbers out of medium-size numbers.

Risk of ruin for a given bankroll is what comes into play when we expect everyone to go bottom up? Not sure myself how to relate these two things.

btw I thought we were asking if there couldn't just be a handful of players who wind up ahead out of a large number. Not the odds of any one person.

So, maybe that's the thing. I've run Craps simulations with Wincraps using 20x to 100x free odds. Like Sally posted, large percentages of theoretical players who only make line bets with full odds in those simulations were lifetime winners. No matter how exaggeratedly you want to define lifetime, they are there.

There's plenty of people playing Craps, so where are these winners who did it this way? Maybe some of them just keep quiet, maybe some who write screwy betting system books etc. are such people, but you know what? I'm going to say these guys do not exist. We'd hear about them somehow; and the book writers of the type would write something different than the screwy, complicated, and flawed nonsense that they do.

One of the other things that stands out when you do these simulations is the absolutely terrifying bankroll swings. A player trying to come out ahead by playing 10x, 20x or more free odds is going to need not only a huge bankroll but a set of nerves like nobody has ever seen. It's been a while since I've looked at these simulations, but I want to say there were no exceptions - no player escaped the huge swings.

Whales do not have nerves like that. They seem to want to just gamble, gambling at reasonable variance; the luxury suites and the comps, the pampering hosts, and all that. Maybe some give some attention to Craps played strictly with line bets and big odds, but I have to think a taste of these swings is soon enough.

Lastly, you just would not want to be some of the players in these simulations who wound up losers. The slaughter was terrible to behold.

Can you explain your strategy do you wait to bet or double up after loss?

Quote: OscarDelgado11

Can you explain your strategy do you wait to bet or double up after loss?

The strategy which yields the most variance and thus a chance to get lucky and be up, even after a while... is to bet the pass or don't pass and take FULL odds (20x or higher). Doubling up after a loss is called the Martingale and it will leave you broke, eventually.

do you add more to your unit stake when you're winning or flat bet?
and when do you start betting for a banker or player streak from the first outcome?

I read a system book on baccarat, ultimate silver bullet proof 2.1, by tabone, that has certain rules to follow, i have seen that streaks of opposites can be long too. the problem is when to start for a streak or get out if risking the wins onto the next result.

though i'm not a system man after reading when and when not to bet i can see that it's better to have a game plan than not to.

Quote: Tomfish

I read a system book on baccarat, ultimate silver bullet proof 2.1, by tabone, that has certain rules to follow, ...

Tabone and his aliases were recently kicked off a baccarat forum after he threatened lawsuits when a few members of that forum tried his ‘system’ and severely criticized it.

One member of that forum posted another baccarat system for free, that is being sold for $700.

All gambling systems have 'certain rules to follow’, and they are all equally useless.

Some are just more expensive than others.

Quote: Tanko

Tabone and his aliases were recently kicked off a baccarat forum after he threatened lawsuits when a few members of that forum tried his ‘system’ and severely criticized it.

One member of that forum posted another baccarat system for free, that is being sold for $700.

All gambling systems have 'certain rules to follow’, and they are all equally useless.

Some are just more expensive than others.

but in most forums it's against the rules to post systems for free. $700 seems like a lot of money for a system.what forum was the free $700 system posted?
I bought tabone's book only $40 after emailing him, i use it all the time and it works. I never had any problems with him on email. and he has another book out now that i also want to buy. i'll email him again because he offers discounts from amazon prices.

i tried a few systems in the past but am going to use tabone's one always i think because i can't see any other system being better than it. A few people in the casino i go asked me what system i was using because i make profit but i don't want to give anything away, i'm trying to keep a low profile and stick to his advice as close as i can to get as much profit as i can. the last thing i need is for the casino to see that i'm playing a system and kick me out or for people to replicate my winning bets. let them lose and i win so far as i'm concerned.