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lovetosing2011
lovetosing2011
Joined: Oct 21, 2016
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October 21st, 2016 at 11:18:51 PM permalink
I always read how betting systems cannot be profitable in the long run, how long do you think it would take to prove this to be true for the best of systems?
In craps: 1 hour = 15 shooters = 150 - 200 dice rolls
RS
RS
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October 22nd, 2016 at 1:16:39 AM permalink
Not sure how you would "prove" a system to not work in real life.

Much easier and quicker to use math and/or simulation.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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October 22nd, 2016 at 1:29:21 AM permalink
Quote: lovetosing2011

I always read how betting systems cannot be profitable in the long run, how long do you think it would take to prove this to be true for the best of systems?
In craps: 1 hour = 15 shooters = 150 - 200 dice rolls

How long would it take to prove a system doesn't work? It's already been proven that they don't work many, many times over. People have been trying for hundreds of years and they will be trying until the end of time.

There's no such thing as the "best system", it's all just a matter of taste.

You should research gambler's falicy.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
lovetosing2011
lovetosing2011
Joined: Oct 21, 2016
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October 22nd, 2016 at 3:38:40 AM permalink
I guess I'm trying to figure out how long it takes before its safe to say it's not just luck anymore.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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October 22nd, 2016 at 3:52:44 AM permalink
Quote: lovetosing2011

I guess I'm trying to figure out how long it takes before its safe to say it's not just luck anymore.

When you can show the math and it adds up to a positive number.

It's possible to get lucky for a very long time.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
lovetosing2011
lovetosing2011
Joined: Oct 21, 2016
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October 22nd, 2016 at 3:54:17 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

When you can show the math and it adds up to a positive number.

It's possible to get lucky for a very long time.



So how long is a long time?
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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October 22nd, 2016 at 3:58:02 AM permalink
Quote: lovetosing2011

So how long is a long time?

When all the casinos ban you for wining to much to often.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
RS
RS
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October 22nd, 2016 at 4:16:39 AM permalink
Quote: lovetosing2011

So how long is a long time?



Depends on the variance, the way the system plays out, and the degree of certainty.

If you're unsure, do the math or run a sim. If you wanna know how many rounds to test for, I'd start at at least 500,000 rounds, and run the sim several times. If the results aren't strikingly obvious, then run 10B round sim.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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October 22nd, 2016 at 4:36:41 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Depends on the variance, the way the system plays out, and the degree of certainty.

If you're unsure, do the math or run a sim. If you wanna know how many rounds to test for, I'd start at at least 500,000 rounds, and run the sim several times. If the results aren't strikingly obvious, then run 10B round sim.

I have a feeling he wants to test it in a casino?

Let's pretend that you thought a roulette wheel or dice were slightly biased. Then how many rolls or spins would you want before you were were 100% confidante it was?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
lovetosing2011
lovetosing2011
Joined: Oct 21, 2016
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October 24th, 2016 at 1:13:53 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Depends on the variance, the way the system plays out, and the degree of certainty.

If you're unsure, do the math or run a sim. If you wanna know how many rounds to test for, I'd start at at least 500,000 rounds, and run the sim several times. If the results aren't strikingly obvious, then run 10B round sim.



The math is super complicated...I need to talk to a statistician. And I would run a simulator, but I'm having trouble with the coding. Know anything about coding with WinCraps?

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