Little report using a don't like system or maybe its a stradegy
Thread Rating:
January 21st, 2016 at 9:00:49 PM
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TRIP REPORT:
Hollywood
St Louis (Maryland Heights)
BR=900
CASHOUT=989
BEERS=$20 (this came out in chips and is counted in the WIN column)
COUPONS=2x25 (score both)
WIN=59/109 with coupons
TIME=2Hrs (1.3 sessions of 1.5 hours each)
TABLE=$5
TIP=$5 (counted in WIN)
Big Bet=$54
Hollywood
St Louis (Maryland Heights)
BR=900
CASHOUT=989
BEERS=$20 (this came out in chips and is counted in the WIN column)
COUPONS=2x25 (score both)
WIN=59/109 with coupons
TIME=2Hrs (1.3 sessions of 1.5 hours each)
TABLE=$5
TIP=$5 (counted in WIN)
Big Bet=$54
5:45 cash in 900 plus (2) $25 coupons
POSITION= stick Righ#2
Shooter Stick Left 1 I did not bet, just watching still
He makes point of 6
I place a coupon on the dont pass line and a 25 on the pass line
Shooter hits 7 on comeout - instant break even but get my coupon cashed
+25
repeat same setup with coupon on dont and 25 on pass
point of 4 is set
Add odds of 6 to my 25 dont pass (the coupon)
no more than 2 rolls then we see patron 7 out
Got my 25 coupon redeemed and plus 3 dollar win
+53TOT
I found out that my strategy is perfect for redeeming coupons.
dude shoots and I sit out
He 7s out very fast, darn missed it but im still learning the table
Come around to the hook my side, he passes, next hook passes, then the lady, no bet from me first throw
She sets a point of 6 and gets it very fast. I like that a lot
Now I place 5 on pass and 5 on dontpass for the comeout (preparing for her second point)
Point of 9 is set
I place 6 dollar odds on the dontpass
She throws lots of 6-8-5 then gets point of 9, i lose $6
-$6 now (+47TOT)
Now I place 5 on pass and 5 on dontpass for the comeout (preparing for her third point)
She throws 3 sevens in a row (im still tight)
she sets point of 8
I come up with 18 odds on the dontpass
she 7s out pretty quick
+15 win -6 earlier=$9 win on this shooter
+9shooter
+62TOT
MY SHOT
5 on pass and 5 on dontpass
SET DICE to HRDWS 4up and 2 facing me
Im dropping these babies so they just roll to the chamfer and dont quite hit the gater. In my mind, anyway.
4 is the point and I see a dont better down there, I usually send these guys packing.
I do not bet agains myself and leave the push bets out on pass and dont pass
I throw about 6 nice numbers and the place bets come out from everywhere like all of them were 5 counting
I hit the hard 4 eventually still setting my hardways. The dont better down there huffs. I Made good pass money for the table.
I setup 5 on pass and 5 on dontpass ready for my second point attempt
Here I get a point of 9
I go up with $6 odds on the dont
I throw a couple numbers and seven out ( I stopped setting the dice and started going random) OK OK, in my mind, i went "random" and got the seven
+4NOW +66TOT
DICE MOVE stick Left...
This first session (1.5 hours) can be summed up as such, the best shooter only got two points so the most I had to put out was 42 odds on the dont to collect 35, for an $11 profit for that roller (I make more money if they get a couple
points, or if its a 6/8)
Start next session: I swear the tides turned right here a touch but nothing major, Im staying. (literally shoud have left)
Things were going well and I was drinking and then maybe ten minutes in I screwed up by forgetting to put another chip on the pass and the dont pass (should have had 10 on each) because this shooter was on his 4th point, requiring me to
bet 108 odds to win 72 or...6 bucks on the shooter Well my max was only 75 and when the dealer pointed that out I snatched up my odds bet and started sulking and getting ready to put the 75 back out when the 7 came. I lost 66 dollars
on that shooter. Big mistake.
After the 66 dollar loss I felt like playng my turbo mode, it went like this:
Playing my regular strategy then simultaneously
5 on the DC, gets moved to 5, place odds of 12
5 more on the DC, gets moved to the 8, then add 12 odds to that one
5 more on the DC, 5 gets rolled so I place 18 odds on that
5 more on the DC, 7 out
I only did this turbo mode twice, the second time got up (2) 12 dollar odds bets and got the seven. decided I was happy, not greedy.
Then, for the next 10 minutes, No more shooters got more than one point, so I picked up between 3 and 5 dollars per shooter for about 10 minutes, with simple 6/18 odds structured bets, then went for some of the food at Phat Thai.
POSITION= stick Righ#2
Shooter Stick Left 1 I did not bet, just watching still
He makes point of 6
I place a coupon on the dont pass line and a 25 on the pass line
Shooter hits 7 on comeout - instant break even but get my coupon cashed
+25
repeat same setup with coupon on dont and 25 on pass
point of 4 is set
Add odds of 6 to my 25 dont pass (the coupon)
no more than 2 rolls then we see patron 7 out
Got my 25 coupon redeemed and plus 3 dollar win
+53TOT
I found out that my strategy is perfect for redeeming coupons.
dude shoots and I sit out
He 7s out very fast, darn missed it but im still learning the table
Come around to the hook my side, he passes, next hook passes, then the lady, no bet from me first throw
She sets a point of 6 and gets it very fast. I like that a lot
Now I place 5 on pass and 5 on dontpass for the comeout (preparing for her second point)
Point of 9 is set
I place 6 dollar odds on the dontpass
She throws lots of 6-8-5 then gets point of 9, i lose $6
-$6 now (+47TOT)
Now I place 5 on pass and 5 on dontpass for the comeout (preparing for her third point)
She throws 3 sevens in a row (im still tight)
she sets point of 8
I come up with 18 odds on the dontpass
she 7s out pretty quick
+15 win -6 earlier=$9 win on this shooter
+9shooter
+62TOT
MY SHOT
5 on pass and 5 on dontpass
SET DICE to HRDWS 4up and 2 facing me
Im dropping these babies so they just roll to the chamfer and dont quite hit the gater. In my mind, anyway.
4 is the point and I see a dont better down there, I usually send these guys packing.
I do not bet agains myself and leave the push bets out on pass and dont pass
I throw about 6 nice numbers and the place bets come out from everywhere like all of them were 5 counting
I hit the hard 4 eventually still setting my hardways. The dont better down there huffs. I Made good pass money for the table.
I setup 5 on pass and 5 on dontpass ready for my second point attempt
Here I get a point of 9
I go up with $6 odds on the dont
I throw a couple numbers and seven out ( I stopped setting the dice and started going random) OK OK, in my mind, i went "random" and got the seven
+4NOW +66TOT
DICE MOVE stick Left...
This first session (1.5 hours) can be summed up as such, the best shooter only got two points so the most I had to put out was 42 odds on the dont to collect 35, for an $11 profit for that roller (I make more money if they get a couple
points, or if its a 6/8)
Start next session: I swear the tides turned right here a touch but nothing major, Im staying. (literally shoud have left)
Things were going well and I was drinking and then maybe ten minutes in I screwed up by forgetting to put another chip on the pass and the dont pass (should have had 10 on each) because this shooter was on his 4th point, requiring me to
bet 108 odds to win 72 or...6 bucks on the shooter Well my max was only 75 and when the dealer pointed that out I snatched up my odds bet and started sulking and getting ready to put the 75 back out when the 7 came. I lost 66 dollars
on that shooter. Big mistake.
After the 66 dollar loss I felt like playng my turbo mode, it went like this:
Playing my regular strategy then simultaneously
5 on the DC, gets moved to 5, place odds of 12
5 more on the DC, gets moved to the 8, then add 12 odds to that one
5 more on the DC, 5 gets rolled so I place 18 odds on that
5 more on the DC, 7 out
I only did this turbo mode twice, the second time got up (2) 12 dollar odds bets and got the seven. decided I was happy, not greedy.
Then, for the next 10 minutes, No more shooters got more than one point, so I picked up between 3 and 5 dollars per shooter for about 10 minutes, with simple 6/18 odds structured bets, then went for some of the food at Phat Thai.
January 24th, 2016 at 1:26:34 AM
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Great night out at Hollywood. I did 3 sessions under system constraints and had loads of fun doing it. The best shooter tonight got five points. Tonight the casino gave me 3x points and $50 in free bets. They "kind of" Rock out here.
Session-1 (1.5 hours)
BR=1000
CASHOUT=1080
COUPONS=2x25
WIN=30/80 with coupons
BigBet=375
+80/1080/BB375/2C25
Session-2 (1.5 hours)
BR=1080
CASHOUT=1147
WIN=67
BigBet=45
+67/1147/BB45
Session-3 (1.5 hours)
BR=1147
CASHOUT=1258
WIN=111
BigBet=45
+111/1258/BB45
Session-1 (1.5 hours)
BR=1000
CASHOUT=1080
COUPONS=2x25
WIN=30/80 with coupons
BigBet=375
+80/1080/BB375/2C25
Session-2 (1.5 hours)
BR=1080
CASHOUT=1147
WIN=67
BigBet=45
+67/1147/BB45
Session-3 (1.5 hours)
BR=1147
CASHOUT=1258
WIN=111
BigBet=45
+111/1258/BB45
February 11th, 2016 at 2:16:03 PM
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No more updates on these sessions. There is no point to continue. My objectives have been met. Thank you Mr. Wizard for your math help.
Trying to add some value, The best thing that I can share and want to share with you at this time to be totally honest here, is that my "variance" showed up as it does with all systems. Its early identification, recognition and disengagement simply put, did save a ton of cash. Or about 800 anyway. It happens to me (variance)about every three months (may change) so this is my first one in St Louis. If I am using the word variant/variance incorrectly I apologize. My definition of Variance is something that, when using a system that performs positively, causes negative results. Variant/Variance. I think its also known as the house edge, and probability, which eventually renders all systems broke and useless. So far... not me. But it can and does bite. My deal was to manage the bankroll, and identify the variance and disengage.
So entering the week I had 1258 BR and deposited 700 into Ameritrade leaving a $550 BR. Was really happy but in retro this new BR was too small. Well, the bottom line is that I put 6-7 benjis away every month to incorporate the BR management that I just made up the limits and used them. My new minimum BR will be around 1K.
How did I see the variant coming and when? I never step up and start wagering immediately. When I got there a shooter was on his 4th point. So I watched. This is sort of rare at the Hollywood. So yeah it was easy to get a clue. Then he got it and proceeded to point 5 and 6. Now There was no mistake that this was a variant night. Most shooters getting 2-3 points, any many doing better yet including me. So I played the low risk version, and still had to wager over $300 twice to get my wins. I should have left. Then I threw from my favorite spot, stick-1 right and got 6 points, rare as heck, betting against myself after 2 points and having to ride out my own success though the next 4. Well I won my few dollars on myself but the next round I lost 400 on myself after the 5th point and left with $150 (did not even try to get the 6th, just decided to keep $150 "scared money" and leave). I was not too ticked off because well, I knew why.
That was Thursday the 28th.
I Went back Saturday the 30th to inspect the variance (was not sure what to expect but I had to see) and she was still there handing out 5 pointers and all/tall/smalls like some dream. I used this knowledge to lay back and drink lightly and chat with the help, while gambling my system in low risk mode and won a little bit but drank that away. Ended up with $125. Bumped my BR up to $250 with some pocket change and returned Monday night to see lady luck still treating everyone to some great point action. 4 and 5 pointers abound. Cashed in my 2 coupons, completely lost one to a 12 on the come-out, then went home, down another $50. I said to myself well stop coming back give it a whole week. So I did.
I Returned on Sunday the 7th and the party was over. Easily noticed the lack of winners and constant zero point shooters. I engaged the system and won $169 in 3 hours. Went turbo twice, cant explain what that is its just a code word for wins more. So that went well and in order to cash in more coupons I went back on ash Wednesday the 10th, and everything was as expected crappy dice and crappy betters. Took away $95 after 2 hours of grinding. Funny thing, when I took a week off to let my variance evaporate, Hollywood sent me $100 Bonus bet FBs (4x25). That brings February FBs (Free Bets) to $460. I don't know why they keep sending these.
Lastly, I had such a great time talking to the players that I began letting one gentleman take my Pass Line odds if he wanted. And he did several times enjoying a win about half the time. I told him literally it doesn't bother me, odds are odds and dice are dice. Pretty soon Id get a point and he'd hand me a nickel or 2 for odds on the pass and there we were, me system betting and him thinking his odds on the 4 and 10 were awesome. Quite a pair.
Any comments, advice or recommendations always enjoyed,
Thanks all,
D
Trying to add some value, The best thing that I can share and want to share with you at this time to be totally honest here, is that my "variance" showed up as it does with all systems. Its early identification, recognition and disengagement simply put, did save a ton of cash. Or about 800 anyway. It happens to me (variance)about every three months (may change) so this is my first one in St Louis. If I am using the word variant/variance incorrectly I apologize. My definition of Variance is something that, when using a system that performs positively, causes negative results. Variant/Variance. I think its also known as the house edge, and probability, which eventually renders all systems broke and useless. So far... not me. But it can and does bite. My deal was to manage the bankroll, and identify the variance and disengage.
So entering the week I had 1258 BR and deposited 700 into Ameritrade leaving a $550 BR. Was really happy but in retro this new BR was too small. Well, the bottom line is that I put 6-7 benjis away every month to incorporate the BR management that I just made up the limits and used them. My new minimum BR will be around 1K.
How did I see the variant coming and when? I never step up and start wagering immediately. When I got there a shooter was on his 4th point. So I watched. This is sort of rare at the Hollywood. So yeah it was easy to get a clue. Then he got it and proceeded to point 5 and 6. Now There was no mistake that this was a variant night. Most shooters getting 2-3 points, any many doing better yet including me. So I played the low risk version, and still had to wager over $300 twice to get my wins. I should have left. Then I threw from my favorite spot, stick-1 right and got 6 points, rare as heck, betting against myself after 2 points and having to ride out my own success though the next 4. Well I won my few dollars on myself but the next round I lost 400 on myself after the 5th point and left with $150 (did not even try to get the 6th, just decided to keep $150 "scared money" and leave). I was not too ticked off because well, I knew why.
That was Thursday the 28th.
I Went back Saturday the 30th to inspect the variance (was not sure what to expect but I had to see) and she was still there handing out 5 pointers and all/tall/smalls like some dream. I used this knowledge to lay back and drink lightly and chat with the help, while gambling my system in low risk mode and won a little bit but drank that away. Ended up with $125. Bumped my BR up to $250 with some pocket change and returned Monday night to see lady luck still treating everyone to some great point action. 4 and 5 pointers abound. Cashed in my 2 coupons, completely lost one to a 12 on the come-out, then went home, down another $50. I said to myself well stop coming back give it a whole week. So I did.
I Returned on Sunday the 7th and the party was over. Easily noticed the lack of winners and constant zero point shooters. I engaged the system and won $169 in 3 hours. Went turbo twice, cant explain what that is its just a code word for wins more. So that went well and in order to cash in more coupons I went back on ash Wednesday the 10th, and everything was as expected crappy dice and crappy betters. Took away $95 after 2 hours of grinding. Funny thing, when I took a week off to let my variance evaporate, Hollywood sent me $100 Bonus bet FBs (4x25). That brings February FBs (Free Bets) to $460. I don't know why they keep sending these.
Lastly, I had such a great time talking to the players that I began letting one gentleman take my Pass Line odds if he wanted. And he did several times enjoying a win about half the time. I told him literally it doesn't bother me, odds are odds and dice are dice. Pretty soon Id get a point and he'd hand me a nickel or 2 for odds on the pass and there we were, me system betting and him thinking his odds on the 4 and 10 were awesome. Quite a pair.
Any comments, advice or recommendations always enjoyed,
Thanks all,
D
February 15th, 2016 at 7:35:15 AM
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So it sounds like your system did okay? I hope I'm not missing it in black/white but I don't see nor understand your system?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
February 15th, 2016 at 12:03:55 PM
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Wow romes - you resurrected this one lol
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
February 15th, 2016 at 12:56:43 PM
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Quote: RomesSo it sounds like your system did okay? I hope I'm not missing it in black/white but I don't see nor understand your system?
Yes I've done better than Okay with this system. The lack of details was sort of intentional.
Because I am satisfied with the hard rules of play as defined by this system, my focus right now is on learning good bankroll management and discipline. I still need to hire a programmer too.
February 15th, 2016 at 1:46:07 PM
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He just posted yesterday to bring it back =p.Quote: WizardofnothingWow romes - you resurrected this one lol
I guess I was confused because you said you had help from Mike with the math, etc. So basically at this point the thread is "I've got a great system, that is all!" ?Quote: rushdlYes I've done better than Okay with this system. The lack of details was sort of intentional.
Because I am satisfied with the hard rules of play as defined by this system, my focus right now is on learning good bankroll management and discipline. I still need to hire a programmer too.
If it's craps, without knowing your system, I'd be more than likely willing to wager you have not found a way to beat the game, and that money management can't beat the game either (this has been proven and stated by Mike). So if it is indeed about craps, and it's not a way to beat the house in the long term (i.e. you're on the good side of variance in the short term) I guess I'm confused as to why not share the "system" so it can get a proper "mathing." By all means though if you thought you really had something I wouldn't share it either, but it's pretty well documented/known you're not going to beat craps with any combination of bets/money management.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
February 15th, 2016 at 3:05:30 PM
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Yes I thought that was all it was for. I do not poo-poo the math. So for this system to work, there is only one "odd" on the table that In my studies I find to be a (reverse) degenerating condition (predictable outcome). Those odds are the number of point wins during one shooter.
Do you know of any others like that on the table?
This I can always promise without failure... "You will see that seven and your roll will end." So I focused on this aspect of the game to write this system.
I also break the game into three pieces which have different rules, processes and progressions.
COME-OUT
POINT-MODE
TURBO-MODE
Also, the system can be tamed for lower risk betting, or ramped up for larger risk betting via the structure. I currently have 3 tiers and I use the middle tier normally.
I am happy to share with you or the Math guys any details if you are curious.
Do you know of any others like that on the table?
This I can always promise without failure... "You will see that seven and your roll will end." So I focused on this aspect of the game to write this system.
I also break the game into three pieces which have different rules, processes and progressions.
COME-OUT
POINT-MODE
TURBO-MODE
Also, the system can be tamed for lower risk betting, or ramped up for larger risk betting via the structure. I currently have 3 tiers and I use the middle tier normally.
I am happy to share with you or the Math guys any details if you are curious.
April 3rd, 2016 at 8:23:17 AM
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My system has been copied by 3 donters in St Louis! Im so humbled! So I came here to be super humble. Same thing happened in Omaha (Council Bluffs, 100x Horseshoe)! These aren't my crew, they just changed after watching my action enough times!
