Guy claims to have invented a BJ betting system

Right, 777, but when that statement is made the math people state (and this is in one of the posts on this thread) "but it could happen tomorrow."

And that's when the insults start getting thrown.

So because a meteorite could hit tomorrow, no one should plan anything further, we may all be dead within 24 hours.

Quote: 1BB

Quote: Exoter175

Quote: MathExtremist

You've spent nearly a decade honing your skills, you're far better than the average AP, and your average profit is $33/hour. Just a factoid for anyone out there considering the AP lifestyle.

Or maybe you're just blowing smoke and can't make up a consistent story. In another thread, you report preternatural dice throwing profits:

So a guy with the ability to average $3.25/roll when shooting dice would rather make $33/hour hustling slots?

I call B.S. If you could win $3.25/roll as an AP, why on Earth are you playing blackjack or slots? Stand at a dice table for an hour, roll 100 times, make an expected $325/hour. Or double your bet, make an expected $650/hour. But you're busy "expanding into every possible niche that we can find"? Give me a break. That doesn't even have a veneer of credibility.

Actually, that's the first time you've said it correctly. "When the cycle on the martingale completes, it returns a minimum of +1 unit" is an accurate statement and I agree with it.

Of course, that's the same irrelevant tautology you presented before because you've defined "the martingale cycle" as "when the martingale series of bets wins at least +1 unit." That's fabulously circular logic, arguing that a definition is true by relying on that definition. When you ignore the times the martingale cycle doesn't complete, all that's left are the times it does.

I think we're done here.

We're "done" because you have a seriously bad case of misinterpretation, misrepresentation of facts, and a penchant for avoiding answering questions you don't like the answer to.

Also, I fucking "LOL" at your throw the dice 100 times per hour comment, that's how I know you're just trolling your heart out.

Exoter, I have to ask. "Registering in the top .2% of the world in intelligence quotients" makes you one of the smartest people in the world, past, present or future. As one of the smartest people in the world why do you feel the need to be confrontational, use vulgarity and resort to personal insults to present your arguments? Is it simply because you are being allowed to? Surely one of the smartest people in the world can hold his own with us mere mortals without those tactics.

Surely you know this conversation has long since been over, and was over long before the majority of this thread came into existence.

I hope you're also aware at the fact that profanity and vulgarity have little to do with intelligence quotients, and have actually shown a correlation in several research studies to a persons level of honesty.

Beyond that, you do realize I'm expressing frustration at the continuance of these arguments where the person attempting to make his case, is ignoring facts and deflecting questions. In fact, I don't believe I've made a single personal "insult" in this thread, and certainly not from the position of making an argument, considering this argument ended long, long ago when ME kept deflecting my question which he would later answer "yes" rendering the entirety of his argument moot.

Lastly, as I hope you are aware, ME is simply trolling and has been for about 10 pages of this thread, and he's doing it from the level of frustration because he couldn't validate his argument and 'win". In fact, there's more proof here that he's been the one making insults at me, rather than myself towards him.

Quote: darkoz

My experience with people on the top is that they are very confrontational, lol.

It's frustrating when people get into these arguments as they tend to become circular. Even I was losing my temper. Everyone has their boiling point and its not always 100 C.

This is certainly also the case.

Quote: darkoz

Right, 777, but when that statement is made the math people state (and this is in one of the posts on this thread) "but it could happen tomorrow."

And that's when the insults start getting thrown.

So because a meteorite could hit tomorrow, no one should plan anything further, we may all be dead within 24 hours.

That's where I think you're not quite seeing the "sides" to the argument.

I am a "math" guy, the only difference between myself and ME, is that I'm rational enough, realistic enough, and experienced enough to be able to boil this thing down to reality, while accepting the fact that purely in theory, something adverse could happen like an "endless loss". Unfortunately I'm wise enough to know that will never happen in my lifetime, and that's where the topic shifts, because there's a huge difference between Intelligence and Wisdom, and I believe this thread has done a wonderful job at exposing that to those that read it.

Quote: Exoter175

I am a "math" guy, the only difference between myself and ME, is that I'm rational enough, realistic enough, and experienced enough to be able to boil this thing down to reality, while accepting the fact that purely in theory, something adverse could happen like an "endless loss". Unfortunately I'm wise enough to know that will never happen in my lifetime, and that's where the topic shifts, because there's a huge difference between Intelligence and Wisdom, and I believe this thread has done a wonderful job at exposing that to those that read it.

So, you're rational and realistic enough to realize that an "endless loss" could theoretically happen, but not rational or wise enough to understand that the event could, by extension, start immediately? Well, keep learning, I guess. You'll get there someday.

Exoter, perhaps you aren't as smart as you think or say you are.

I don't know if I really want to get back into this argument (hey, I can't even edit my answers if I change my mind but that's a different thread.)

I am wondering if the theoretical loss of 10k in a row could have some odds attached to it. I have no idea what that would be.

And if you made a side-bet in a casino (at double zero roulette if black loses 10k spins straight the bettor wins 1 million dollars a week for life) for a wager of $5 per spin, would anyone here consider this a good bet?

Because it could happen anytime?

the odds are about 1:2^10000 against that happening. Let's look at smaller numbers for a minute: 2^50 is about 1.1 quadrillion, which is about 10 times the size of the global economy. Sustaining a 50 loss streak would require one person to control 10 times the sum of the world's wealth. For a 50 loss streak, a fair payment would be about $1 trillion/week for life, depending on age and discount rates.

Odds should be considered in game design and regulation/policy. You can tell your casino clients that the endless long (is the “long” redundant in this sentence?) streaks of double zero hits in roulette, non-7 rolls in craps, banker/player runs in baccarat, and players BJs could occur any minutes and advice them to get out the gaming business.

Quote: Exoter175

[re: bonafides as an AP]

KewlJ can attest to this

Let's hear from Kewlj on this matter if we may.

I have no doubt that he is and that he makes the income he says he does. If you're determined and disciplined enough, you'll make it happen.

Quote: Exoter175

I am a "math" guy, the only difference between myself and ME, is that I'm rational enough, realistic enough, and experienced enough to be able to boil this thing down to reality, while accepting the fact that purely in theory, something adverse could happen like an "endless loss".

Oh, there are many differences between us besides my dispute with your impossible construct of an "endless loss."[1] I can't stand at a dice table and have a theoretical win of over $50/hour, nor would I choose to hustle slot machines if I could. I also can't string together a series of independent wagers, call it a betting system, and have that system alter the house edge of those independent wagers (actually, neither can you, but we differ in our beliefs on that). I also don't need to put the word "math" in quotes when I refer to myself as a math guy, nor do I need to invoke profanity or dubious proclamations of intelligence when I engage in spirited debate.

(1BB, to your point, 1 in 500 is genius-level but not nearly "smartest person in the world." There are 14 million people on the planet with better than 1 in 500 intelligence.)

[1] There is a meaningful distinction between the non-zero possibility of an endless string of heads while flipping a coin, and the concept of an "endless loss." The former only requires a coin and infinite time in which to flip it, but latter also requires the concept of "infinite money" which is an impossible construct -- and which in any event renders invalid the concept of winning or losing a finite amount.

Quote: darkoz

I don't know if I really want to get back into this argument (hey, I can't even edit my answers if I change my mind but that's a different thread.)

I am wondering if the theoretical loss of 10k in a row could have some odds attached to it. I have no idea what that would be.

And if you made a side-bet in a casino (at double zero roulette if black loses 10k spins straight the bettor wins 1 million dollars a week for life) for a wager of $5 per spin, would anyone here consider this a good bet?

Because it could happen anytime?

In theoretical/analytical world, your consecutive losses or wins are limitless. However, in the real world, your consecutive losses are limited by your bank roll, and conversely your consecutive wins are limited by the house's bank roll.

Quote: rdw4potus

So, you're rational and realistic enough to realize that an "endless loss" could theoretically happen, but not rational or wise enough to understand that the event could, by extension, start immediately? Well, keep learning, I guess. You'll get there someday.

No, I'm wise enough to know the rarity of such an occurrence, and know that I'll never be there to experience it.

Its really, really simple guys, lets not try to run this thing out on the theory of an infinite loss against, since its never been proven and only exists in a purely theoretical world, after ME has admitted to the fact that once the cycle completes the yield is a minimum of +1.

Quote: RS

Exoter, perhaps you aren't as smart as you think or say you are.

That's certainly possible, I won't dispute that.

Quote: MathExtremist

Oh, there are many differences between us besides my dispute with your impossible construct of an "endless loss."[1] I can't stand at a dice table and have a theoretical win of over $50/hour, nor would I choose to hustle slot machines if I could. I also can't string together a series of independent wagers, call it a betting system, and have that system alter the house edge of those independent wagers (actually, neither can you, but we differ in our beliefs on that). I also don't need to put the word "math" in quotes when I refer to myself as a math guy, nor do I need to invoke profanity or dubious proclamations of intelligence when I engage in spirited debate.

(1BB, to your point, 1 in 500 is genius-level but not nearly "smartest person in the world." There are 14 million people on the planet with better than 1 in 500 intelligence.)

[1] There is a meaningful distinction between the non-zero possibility of an endless string of heads while flipping a coin, and the concept of an "endless loss." The former only requires a coin and infinite time in which to flip it, but latter also requires the concept of "infinite money" which is an impossible construct -- and which in any event renders invalid the concept of winning or losing a finite amount.

BS arguments aside, lets get back to the top of your post and discuss that, the differences between us.

1. I'm capable of acknowledging the fact that the martingale system by its completion would yield +1 unit minimum, you've now since admitted this with hesitation and a rebuttal.
2. I'm capable of acknowledging the fact that a theoretical loss of endless proportions is mathematically possible, however unlikely, unrealistic, and not capable of being proven. You are not.
3. I'm capable of looking at the reality of this argument and proclaiming that an infinite loss is impossible in the way that you've tried to wield it as a "godwin" against my argument, of which I didn't even make an argument to begin with, I corrected a few comments about the system itself, and then YOU created the argument against me by using such fallacies as an "infinite loss".
4. I'm obviously far more capable of taking this discussion less seriously than you, as you are continuing to make post after post with silly responses about mathematics that either have nothing to do with the current conversation, or you're just returning it to its loop, in the continuance of a cyclical debate. I don't do this.



So again, lecture me on how there are far more intelligent people out there than myself ( a topic not brought up by myself, by the way ), or how an infinite loss would negate the effects of a martingale ( to which I agreed, except in the fact that it could not be proven, and thus was a weak argument from a person clearly attempting to derail the point of a martingale system ).

And while we are at it, continue to compare this argument to that of a clipping coin where the probability dictates that the odds are 50/50 when the reality of the discussion isn't based on a structure of a 50/50 probability.

And lastly, point out my "profanity" and its use, as well as myself bringing up the bits about intelligence as a case to make an argument, rather than a reminder of the fact that whatever you write here, isn't going to go over my head, but rather I express frustration (the profanity) at your inability to comprehend the discussion, while deflecting (countlessly) the questions and arguments I pose to you.


At the end of the day, the martingale yields +1 minimum units by its completion. There is no possible way to dispute this. It is a very simple design that a 5th grader could figure out by himself, without aid.

However, he we are, self proclaimed "math extremist" where your only argument is that an "infinite loss" could happen, and make it so that the martingale does not complete its cycle. It is the only possibility, only occurrence that could ever "break" the system, however, the issue is that it is impossible to prove, and therefore impossible to exist.

In "theory" it can exist, and I've admitted that many times, but I'm at least intelligent enough, or maybe just wise enough to know that it won't happen in reality, and that basing my argument off of a theory isn't sound enough evidence to continue.

Yet here you are.

Meanwhile, you'll have the audacity to argue an aside, that an "infinite bankroll" could not exist, rather than viewing "infinite bankroll" as a mode in which the next bet could always be placed.

Literally, every argument you've brought up in this thread, has had a foundation built loosely from theories and unproven metrics, while almost the entire time, you've sat there and refused to answer my questions and propositions.

Yet somehow I'm the bad guy in all of this? Give me a break.

I'm less intelligent because I used profanity? Please, are we five? I'm just expressing frustration at your annoyance and continuance of this topic. Like a pesky fly fly landing on my arm.

When did you start APing again, Exoter?

Quote: RS

When did you start APing again, Exoter?

Right around 8-9 years ago, why?

I don't exactly have an exact date to give you, which ME would almost assuredly ask for.

I have a system where I bet following the streaks.

I raise my bets with each win. So if the roulette ball has landed on red, I bet red.

I usually lose my money but I am shooting for the unlimited streak that is possible and due to happen any day now.

You are full of B.S.

Where does the house get the money to pay you in the event of your unlimited winning streak, which according to your dream, will occurred within the next few days? As rightly pointed out by ME and RS, all the money in this entire Milky Way galaxy will not be enough to pay for your winning. So please stop the B.S. and stay out of this discussion like you originally had intended. But in the event that you are serious, I want to know which casino you plan place your roulette bet so that I’ll short that casino stock tomorrow.

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Exoter175

[re: bonafides as an AP]

KewlJ can attest to this

Let's hear from Kewlj on this matter if we may.

Although his name has been brought up numerous times, KewlJ's silence on this has been deafening and I don't blame him. It's not fair for him to be put on the spot, to validate someone that he doesn't know. I seriously doubt that they know each other outside of this forum or the other one that they're on.

If I'm wrong I'll happily eat crow, just before I call the helicopter to evacuate me from the roof of the casino. :-)

Quote: Exoter175

2. I'm capable of acknowledging the fact that a theoretical loss of endless proportions is mathematically possible,

It's not. Read again what I wrote:

Quote: MathExtremist

There is a meaningful distinction between the non-zero possibility of an endless string of heads while flipping a coin, and the concept of an "endless loss." The former only requires a coin and infinite time in which to flip it, but latter also requires the concept of "infinite money" which is an impossible construct -- and which in any event renders invalid the concept of winning or losing a finite amount.

The definition of wager is to stake something of value on an uncertain outcome. The notion of "infinite money" renders the concept of "wager" meaningless: you cannot lose a finite stake if you have infinite money. Money itself -- as a medium of exchange for scarce resources -- becomes meaningless if it is infinite. Infinite money has zero value, and that in turn means you have nothing with which to wager.

It seems you don't appreciate the difference between really big and infinite, nor the related difference between really small and zero. That's okay, you don't have to, and this isn't the kind of forum where I'm being paid to explain such things so I'm not going to keep wasting my breath. Just don't wager as if really big and infinite were the same and you'll be fine. The casino doesn't care whether you think the Martingale system works.

Quote: 777

You are full of B.S.

Where does the house get the money to pay you in the event of your unlimited winning streak, which according to your dream, will occurred within the next few days? As rightly pointed out by ME and RS, all the money in this entire Milky Way galaxy will not be enough to pay for your winning. So please stop the B.S. and stay out of this discussion like you originally had intended. But in the event that you are serious, I want to know which casino you plan place your roulette bet so that I’ll short that casino stock tomorrow.

I think most of the people on here get that I had no intention of using such a system. It's in response to earlier posts. I have been in this discussion almost from the beginning. It's a long thread, but I think you need to read it in its entirety before posting.

EDIT: btw, I did win $3500 once using that system although I had no expectation it would go on for infinity or even 10K wins. I actually went for 15 spins before the first loss. Here is the link to that thread: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/trip-reports/18987-caesars-ac-trip-report/

Quote: 1BB

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Exoter175

[re: bonafides as an AP]

KewlJ can attest to this

Let's hear from Kewlj on this matter if we may.

Although his name has been brought up numerous times, KewlJ's silence on this has been deafening and I don't blame him. It's not fair for him to be put on the spot, to validate someone that he doesn't know. I seriously doubt that they know each other outside of this forum or the other one that they're on.

If I'm wrong I'll happily eat crow, just before I call the helicopter to evacuate me from the roof of the casino. :-)

(-;

Pass the popcorn.

Does anyone know what Ex does for a living? I'm not sure I think he may have mentioned something about being an AP once or twice.

Quote: 1BB

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Exoter175

[re: bonafides as an AP]

KewlJ can attest to this

Let's hear from Kewlj on this matter if we may.

Although his name has been brought up numerous times, KewlJ's silence on this has been deafening and I don't blame him. It's not fair for him to be put on the spot, to validate someone that he doesn't know. I seriously doubt that they know each other outside of this forum or the other one that they're on.

If I'm wrong I'll happily eat crow, just before I call the helicopter to evacuate me from the roof of the casino. :-)

His silence? You mean the fact that KJ probably hasn't read this thread all over again? Maybe the fact that he doesn't want to get involved?

Ask RS (RollingStoned) on the other forum if he's ever read anything on the "other" forum from me, his answer will be yes, he'll also likely point out that I would often butt heads with ZK (forum troll) and T3 (forum's version of MathExtremist). The interesting part over there, is that we'll talk about +EV and I'll every once in a while offer up machine plays, VUXing etc. and it all gets shot down much in the same way that "systems" get shot down here, though we also shoot down "systems" over there. KJ and I, while not "knowing" each other, and perhaps not even being "friends" on an internet forum, share a similar career path and often offer up very opposing views of what we think are the best ways to "AP" for a career, and he'll often be far too modest, and I'll often be far too ambitious. Though I haven't posted over there in quite a while in large part due to the annoyance i have for ZK (who insists that penny stocks are the greatest thing ever, and we're all fools for not buying into ELTP, though everything that I claimed would happen to that stock, has happened). RS might be able to remember that one and confirm that as well.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: 1BB

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Exoter175

[re: bonafides as an AP]

KewlJ can attest to this

Let's hear from Kewlj on this matter if we may.

Although his name has been brought up numerous times, KewlJ's silence on this has been deafening and I don't blame him. It's not fair for him to be put on the spot, to validate someone that he doesn't know. I seriously doubt that they know each other outside of this forum or the other one that they're on.

If I'm wrong I'll happily eat crow, just before I call the helicopter to evacuate me from the roof of the casino. :-)

(-;

Pass the popcorn.

Does anyone know what Ex does for a living? I'm not sure I think he may have mentioned something about being an AP once or twice.

You mean, aside from ruffling the feathers of all of the naysayers on a forum that believes APing is impossible? Apparently I'm just some fool with a really good "lucky" streak, and by lucky streak I mean something like 95 weeks in a row in the black, which should be around 450is weeks if not for one really bad session of blackjack where I lost max bet after max bet after max bet in a "unicorn" of a count.

While not a member, I do read BJTF and I believe ZK got a permanent boot. And I don't think T3 leaves his computer long enough to even play a hand of bj, ever.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

While not a member, I do read BJTF and I believe ZK got a permanent boot. And I don't think T3 leaves his computer long enough to even play a hand of bj, ever.

That guy has always been on and off banned for as long as I've been a member, and I don't believe he's been permabanned unless something recently happened. Its nice to see that we might have a similar viewpoint on T3, though :P.

Well, that's their business over there...

Well, I did stop reading this thread because it really didn't interest me.  But seeing it remaining in the top threads, I decided to take a look and see what I am (not) missing.  Seeing my name mentioned a couple times, I went back and read.

Exoter, did you really ask me to vouch for you 3 pages back? ("Kewlj can attest to that").  

I don't know you other than from another forum.  Did you participate on that forum for a while?  Yes, I can attest to that. But that's about all I can and will attest to.  In all honesty, it seemed like you were a newb at the time (maybe I read that wrong) and I don't remember a lot of talk about other AP techniques, but to be fair, I often tune out subjects that don't interest me.   Maybe you are who you say you are....I don't know.

I also haven't met MathExtremist.   I am not even sure what ME's claims are as far as profession.  He is one of those Math 'heavy' guys, worthy of his name, that I have a hard time relating to and usually don't like.  But, I don't get that 'don't like' vibe about him....I just have a hard time keeping up and relating.  :/ But I do feel comfortable saying he is NOT a troll as you stated earlier.

This IS the internet.  And some people troll and make all sorts of claims (not saying anyone in particular). I don't get it. I guess it's entertainment for them, I don't know.  But the thing is on the few forums that I have participated on, all related to blackjack, gambling or Vegas, it doesn't take long to figure out who knows what they are talking about and who is just talking. There's no sense in getting too worked up about it.

Quote: Exoter175

Quote: 1BB

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Exoter175

[re: bonafides as an AP]

KewlJ can attest to this

Let's hear from Kewlj on this matter if we may.

Although his name has been brought up numerous times, KewlJ's silence on this has been deafening and I don't blame him. It's not fair for him to be put on the spot, to validate someone that he doesn't know.  I seriously doubt that they know each other outside of this forum or the other one that they're on.

If I'm wrong I'll happily eat crow, just before I call the helicopter to evacuate me from the roof of the casino. :-)

His silence? You mean the fact that KJ probably hasn't read this thread all over again? Maybe the fact that he doesn't want to get involved?

Ask RS (RollingStoned) on the other forum if he's ever read anything on the "other" forum from me, his answer will be yes, he'll also likely point out that I would often butt heads with ZK (forum troll) and T3 (forum's version of MathExtremist). The interesting part over there, is that we'll talk about +EV and I'll every once in a while offer up machine plays, VUXing etc. and it all gets shot down much in the same way that "systems" get shot down here, though we also shoot down "systems" over there. KJ and I, while not "knowing" each other, and perhaps not even being "friends" on an internet forum, share a similar career path and often offer up very opposing views of what we think are the best ways to "AP" for a career, and he'll often be far too modest, and I'll often be far too ambitious. Though I haven't posted over there in quite a while in large part due to the annoyance i have for ZK (who insists that penny stocks are the greatest thing ever, and we're all fools for not buying into ELTP, though everything that I claimed would happen to that stock, has happened). RS might be able to remember that one and confirm that as well.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: 1BB

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Exoter175

[re: bonafides as an AP]

KewlJ can attest to this

Let's hear from Kewlj on this matter if we may.

Although his name has been brought up numerous times, KewlJ's silence on this has been deafening and I don't blame him. It's not fair for him to be put on the spot, to validate someone that he doesn't know.  I seriously doubt that they know each other outside of this forum or the other one that they're on.

If I'm wrong I'll happily eat crow, just before I call the helicopter to evacuate me from the roof of the casino. :-)

(-;

Pass the popcorn.

Does  anyone  know what Ex does for a living? I'm not sure I think he may have mentioned  something  about being an AP once or twice.

You mean, aside from ruffling the feathers of all of the naysayers on a forum that believes APing is impossible? Apparently I'm just some fool with a really good "lucky" streak, and by lucky streak I mean something like 95 weeks in a row in the black, which should be around 450is weeks if not for one really bad session of blackjack where I lost max bet after max bet after max bet in a "unicorn" of a count.

I don't think you got the Joke. Of course most of us know very good and well AP absolutely works and can be very profitable, we are not questioning that. You have made sure to boastfully mention you're an AP many times, you've successfully pounded that in our heads.

It's almost certain that KJ has read this thread.

It seems you have mentioned a few members names. Someone may read more into that IE they are vouching for the fact you're an AP, possibly a very successful and knowledgeable one for 8 years+. Perhaps that all needs to be cleared up. You have come off as an experienced exceptional  AP expert.

TBH I have been skeptical a bit, not that you're an AP but just the actual real experience we have been lead to believe. I also had a few members ask about you. Especially since you've been doing this 8 or 9 years and work with a team.  Someone said they know you've been a poster on another forum for a few years but that's about it.

Can I ask a few questions?

1) How and where do they know you from? (Just as a member from a another forum?)
2) Have they ever worked with you?
3) Have you ever meet them in person or even talked with you on the phone?
4) 8 or 9 years in AP, doing mostly what?  Card counting?(what limits?)  UX hustler? Must hit hustler?
5) When did you actually become  proficient at AP?  (Technically I AP'ed something once when I was only 19 6) using free play Coins at 4 Queens)  
7) How long have you relied solely on AP as you're income? Where did you learn counting and bonus hunting?
8) What's your main focus and average limits?
9) Has KJ or RS  ever even  seen you in a casino or know anyone that has?
10) Have you come up with methods or plays yourself that you developed ?
11 Other than Vulture type plays , small promos and  card counting, what kind of plays do you do
12) Can anyone known and credible verify anything?


EDIT sorry I didn't see that KJ responded  before I submitted this. ill leave any asked and awnserd questions

To be honest, I am not crazy about this exercise AW.  It's feels like the guy is on trial.  A bit like a 'witch hunt'.  There is something to be said for 'outing' a phony (not speaking of anyone in particular) but, my concern that it will discourage other legit member from joining or those many that are already be lurking, from participating.  Being that AP's are generally very private and secretive by nature what legitimate AP would want to put himself through this? 

And really, I don't see where it is even necessary because like I said, it doesn't take long for any of us to figure out who is legit and knows what they are talking about and who is just talking. Plus we always have private communications to share thoughts. I don't need a public examination and shaming of anyone.  And when I decide someone is not legit, I just tune the person out.

Quote: Exoter175

Quote: MathExtremist

You've spent nearly a decade honing your skills, you're far better than the average AP, and your average profit is $33/hour. Just a factoid for anyone out there considering the AP lifestyle.

Or maybe you're just blowing smoke and can't make up a consistent story. In another thread, you report preternatural dice throwing profits:

So a guy with the ability to average $3.25/roll when shooting dice would rather make $33/hour hustling slots?

I call B.S. If you could win $3.25/roll as an AP, why on Earth are you playing blackjack or slots? Stand at a dice table for an hour, roll 100 times, make an expected $325/hour. Or double your bet, make an expected $650/hour. But you're busy "expanding into every possible niche that we can find"? Give me a break. That doesn't even have a veneer of credibility.

Actually, that's the first time you've said it correctly. "When the cycle on the martingale completes, it returns a minimum of +1 unit" is an accurate statement and I agree with it.

Of course, that's the same irrelevant tautology you presented before because you've defined "the martingale cycle" as "when the martingale series of bets wins at least +1 unit." That's fabulously circular logic, arguing that a definition is true by relying on that definition. When you ignore the times the martingale cycle doesn't complete, all that's left are the times it does.

I think we're done here.

We're "done" because you have a seriously bad case of misinterpretation, misrepresentation of facts, and a penchant for avoiding answering questions you don't like the answer to.

Also, I fucking "LOL" at your throw the dice 100 times per hour comment, that's how I know you're just trolling your heart out.

Exoter175 suspended 3 days for excessive profanity. See Rule 6. This post and many others previous.

In before 1BB

Quote: RS

In before 1BB

Maybe 1BB will get him off the suspension list in 5 or six days while I am just using your little jumping Avatar for target practice on my computer screen ;-) .. (Joke)

Quote: RS

In before 1BB

Go ahead and ask me what I would have done.

Quote: 1BB

Go ahead and ask me what I would have done.

What would you have done?

Quote: kewlj

I also haven't met MathExtremist.   I am not even sure what ME's claims are as far as profession.  He is one of those Math 'heavy' guys, worthy of his name, that I have a hard time relating to and usually don't like.  But, I don't get that 'don't like' vibe about him....I just have a hard time keeping up and relating.  :/ But I do feel comfortable saying he is NOT a troll as you stated earlier.

I'm a gaming consultant -- mostly I get paid to sit and type. In my past life I was a software engineer, when I also got paid to sit and type, just with less English and more parentheses. :)

Also, if I wanted to troll a forum, it'd be with something more interesting than a rehash of a centuries-old innumeracy.

Quote: RS

What would you have done?

Sounded like a challenge, one you asked for, one you got, one your up for.
I'm in, what would you have done?

Quote: kewlj

To be honest, I am not crazy about this exercise AW.  It's feels like the guy is on trial.  A bit like a 'witch hunt'.  There is something to be said for 'outing' a phony (not speaking of anyone in particular) but, my concern that it will discourage other legit member from joining or those many that are already be lurking, from participating.  Being that AP's are generally very private and secretive by nature what legitimate AP would want to put himself through this? 

And really, I don't see where it is even necessary because like I said, it doesn't take long for any of us to figure out who is legit and knows what they are talking about and who is just talking. Plus we always have private communications to share thoughts. I don't need a public examination and shaming of anyone.  And when I decide someone is not legit, I just tune the person out.

Yes you have a kind heart like 1BB.

He doesn't have to answer anything at all, I was just curious. He seems to want everyone to know he's a knowledge AP, he burst on the scene making sure we were aware of this fact. He kinda suggested members would vouch for him. I don't think there's anything wrong with asking a few general questions, especially since he's obviously wanting the attention and notoriety of being a believable and knowledgeable AP. No one is forcing him to answer anything and would respect his decision either way.

Quote: AxelWolf

he's obviously wanting the attention and notoriety of being a believable and knowledgeable AP.

I don't comprehend this -- why would any AP want attention and notoriety? It's not like you'd walk up to a blackjack table, buy in for $1000, and then yell to the floor supervisor "Hey, I'm going to count down your game using Hi-Opt II with an ace side count. Can you send over a cocktail waitress?"

I thought the longevity of an AP's career was dependent on staying under the radar and *avoiding* notoriety...

Quote: RS

What would you have done?

I would have taken action at the very first offense with a warning rather than wait and give him enough rope to hang himself. There's a good chance that that's all it would have taken. My concern is not for the offender but for the members on the receiving end of the personal insults that were never addressed. Yes, calling another member a troll has been determined to be a personal insult here and a suspendable offense - unless, of course, it's directed at me. Waiting all this time only allowed the insults to continue and that's not fair to those who were attempting to have a good faith discussion.

A minor point if I may. The reason given for this suspension was excessive profanity. Rule 6 does not read excessive. It says profanity is prohibited, especially the F word. That's why I would have addressed it immediately. Who knows if that could have nipped it in the bud, saved members from insults and saved Exoter from a suspension?

Now who wants to go fishing? I need someone to teach me how to bait.

'Now who wants to go fishing? I need someone to teach me how to bait. i assume you only want to be an apprentice baiter, and not a master baiter ?

Quote: redjohn

'Now who wants to go fishing? I need someone to teach me how to bait. i assume you only want to be an apprentice baiter, and not a master baiter ?

Ha ha. I don't bait and tell. :-)

Quote: MathExtremist

I don't comprehend this -- why would any AP want attention and notoriety? It's not like you'd walk up to a blackjack table, buy in for $1000, and then yell to the floor supervisor "Hey, I'm going to count down your game using Hi-Opt II with an ace side count. Can you send over a cocktail waitress?"

I thought the longevity of an AP's career was dependent on staying under the radar and *avoiding* notoriety...

One human failing is to assume that the way you feel is the way everyone feels. search Amazon books for gambling memoirs and you will find plenty of AP stories. Clearly, there are people who are excited and thrilled about telling their/sharing their exploits.

I personally am writing a memoir and yet have sought no publishing deal because as much as I want to share my adventures with the world (and I should point out I attempted to break into Hollywood with screenplays - unsuccessfully - for many years so I have a penchant for wanting to tell stories) nonetheless I recognize it could damage my ability to AP by exposure.

So, I probably am guilty myself of braggadocio on this forum as an AP because inside I am screaming out "YES, I AM DOING IT" while outwardly I remain quiet for the most part.

This may tend to look like trolling in fact to some, who say claims are being made without backup but such is the catch-22 of being a lonely AP craving some company and audience.

Quote: MathExtremist

I don't comprehend this -- why would any AP want attention and notoriety? It's not like you'd walk up to a blackjack table, buy in for $1000, and then yell to the floor supervisor "Hey, I'm going to count down your game using Hi-Opt II with an ace side count. Can you send over a cocktail waitress?"

I thought the longevity of an AP's career was dependent on staying under the radar and *avoiding* notoriety...

Well that's an interesting conversation in and of itself. Obviously everyone has a different personality. Everyone has different reasons they want to talk about it. I'm certain its all self serving, some innocent hey look what I found, some hey look at me I'm the best.

I will say this... I noticed the more someone shouts out and brags online I'm an AP, I make this and that, I know this and that, I do this and that etc etc. The less successful they actually are.

Sometimes they want to be writers(we have a few of those guys here), consultants or have some other motivation. Sometimes they are even trying to con people, troll or don't even actually gamble very often, IE wannabe AP's, we have seen that often, especially when people claim to beat high house edge games with no extra promotions, angles or anything(system players).

Take guys like Bob Dancer, obviously he has a reason for talking about AP.
I remember Mickey Crimm saying something about leaving a legacy.

It's just a simple fact most people want to be acknowledged for their accomplishments or what they know. Perhaps they get that feeling as if they just pulled off the biggest most brilliant heist, but now they can't talk about it. They are just bursting to tell someone. That's natural for certain personalities and most people.

Obviously there's exceptions to every rule.

Some things are probably ok to talk about , sometimes I cringe when I read something, especially if I think the information may get back to the casinos and hurt plays or even get back to other retarded AP's who are not discreet and kill stuff .

Someone was talking about Plaza slots VS keno and what's better> Someone said( Djatc?), it doesn't matter because it's only eligible on slots. I posted there were 3 or 4 machines it actually worked on keno. I really didn't think that was a big deal, but soon after it was taken off. I wrote about the Sams Town free Ace thing (IIRC. KJ mentioned he never played one like that) I believe the Next day it ended. Who knows why probably coincidence , but I have to wonder.

YES keeping under the radar especially information is absolutely the smartest thing. There's tons of past plays and promotions I could talk about, but casinos oftentimes make the same mistakes(even 20 years later) Choosing what is ok or not ok to talk about is difficult at best. I honestly believe because of the internet and easily obtained AP information has cost guy's who started before the AP information boom millions of dollars.

Quote: kewlj

I also haven't met MathExtremist.   I am not even sure what ME's claims are as far as profession.  

I've "known" of him for years, i.e. I've read his postings on another board (now moribund) which was devoted to craps.

He had a different handle then but the same persona: smart, probing, intellectually relentless.

He doesn't suffer fools gladly and enjoys hoisting them on their own petard.

An asset to any forum.

It's very hard to be a lone wolf in this business so it's in most AP's that post here to be discreet and actually meet other AP's in private. Exotar sounds like a very knowledgeable person, so it's in our best interest to talk and see what we can do for each other.

I'm not big on exposing myself for fame and notoriety, just want to make some money, and more without anyone knowing what I did. AP books don't sell anyway lol.

And yet I would love to write the Great American AP Book.

Who knows?

Won't be for many years from now though. Oh well!

Grossjean already wrote it!

Quote: DeMango

Grossjean already wrote it!

Grosjean's book is about card counting Blackjack, right?

I'm writing the non-card-counting Great American AP book.

Quote: darkoz

Grosjean's book is about card counting Blackjack, right?

Nope, far from it.

Quote: DeMango

Nope, far from it.

Far from it indeed. Chapter eight covers several carnival games including, of all things, the Big Six Wheel.

What is the title of this book again? Only Counting? Primarily Counting? No, that's not it...hmmm... :-)

It's called "Beyond Basic Strategy", if I remember correctly. So it basically only talks about card counting and nothing beyond that!