Hit 18 loss losing streak multiple times at 40 percent win chance.

I was recently using a martingale type strategy on a site where I had a 40 percent chance of winning each bet.

Overall I placed about 5000 bets. The loss streaks were normally 8 or below, with it rising to 10 to 12, and occasionally you would see a 13 or 14, and rarely anything higher than that.

Toward the end of the 5000 bet run, I hit an 18 loss streak 4 times pretty much back to back to back to back.

What are the odds of hitting this with a 40/60 chance to win/lose ? What are the odds of hitting this more than once in close succession? Four times ? Seems a bit like I was playing a rigged site. This only happened when I increased my wagers by 10x towards the end, then suddenly hit 4 18 loss streaks and lost everything.

Seems rigged, but I don't know how to figure out the actual numbers.

Can anyone help ?

Thanks

It's not rigged, this happens all the time even in casinos. While it's not "every day" I've seen a roulette board entirely red or black plenty of times to believe 24 numbers in a row can come up the same on an almost "50/50."

Not to say an online casino couldn't be rigged, but this is what you get when you martingale (or use anything similar to it). You're not actually affecting the house edge with your betting and you WILL eventually succumb to the natural EV of the game and how much you've bet thus far. If you've gotten lucky and are up a ton, that just means eventually you'll get massively unlucky to lose it all and get to your EV.

RE: See my post on your other thread where I basically said that would happen.

Well, unfortunately this is not a rare occurence on this particular gambling site. (moneypot) I've played on serveral of their casinos over the course of several months, using different user names and spacing the sessions weeks apart. Every time, I get the "most unlucky day of my life" variance and get busted out very quickly. (Even when not using a betting system and just wagering like normal). I even emailed the guy who runs moneypot and he told me I must have just had the most unlucky steak possible. He stopped responding when I told him it happened to me like 6 times over the course of 3 months and multiple sessions and multiple different accounts.

Still wondering what the odds are to hit 18 loss losing streak in 40/60 win/lose situation. Also hitting it multiple times very close to each other, three times, four times, five times. The odds have to be like winning the lottery while getting hit by lightning twice at the same time while being attacked by great white sharks in a swimming pool full of leprechauns and gamblers who have won at online casinos riding unicorns.

Also, just to be clear, I was not using the system I described in my other post, I took my winnings from that and was doing straight martingale but when I hit 18 in a row with a starting bet of 1000, I had to stop and start over, but then right away hit 18 in a row again, and reset, then soon after 18 in a row again and was pretty much bust. Bought in for more money out of frustration, and then right away hit another 18 in a row and then threw my computer at the wall.

I would encourage anyone with interest to check out that site and see if they have the same kind of "unreal" bad luck every time they play on there. I don't see how every time I play on moneypot it just so happens to be the unluckiest day of my life.

Also, you say an online site cannot be rigged? I'm sorry? What? Maybe I read that wrong. Any site can be rigged by whoever programmed it to do whatever they want.

Quote: techsavant

Seems rigged, but I don't know how to figure out the actual numbers.

Can anyone help ?

Thanks

Starting anew... you would hit an 18 loss streak around 1 in 10,000 times. So 4 times in a 5000 sample is rare, but not impossible. Given you seem to notice the streaks occur when you up your bet, I would guess you are probably playing a cheating site. But certainly not enough evidence to count as 'proof'.

Quote: techsavant

Still wondering what the odds are to hit 18 loss losing streak in 40/60 win/lose situation. Also hitting it multiple times very close to each other, three times, four times, five times. The odds have to be like winning the lottery while getting hit by lightning twice at the same time while being attacked by great white sharks in a swimming pool full of leprechauns and gamblers who have won at online casinos riding unicorns.

That's pretty easy math to figure out. You have a 60% chance of losing... so the odds of losing 18 in a row are .6^18 = .0001 = 1 in 10,000... Still think it's lottery/unicorns/leprechauns/etc?

THIS is why Martingaling DOES NOT WORK. People constantly underestimate how frequently they'll run in to a large losing streak and dump everything.

Quote: techsavant

Also, just to be clear, I was not using the system I described in my other post, I took my winnings from that and was doing straight martingale

So you massively upped your bet and were just straight Martingaling, a known losing system...

Quote: techsavant

I would encourage anyone with interest to check out that site and see if they have the same kind of "unreal" bad luck every time they play on there. I don't see how every time I play on moneypot it just so happens to be the unluckiest day of my life.

So you personally think this site is rigged and you're encouraging people to go "try their luck" and report back? If you believe the site is rigged usually you provide math proof or video evidence (thousands of events) that they are and then they are added to the blacklist.

Quote: techsavant

Also, you say an online site cannot be rigged? I'm sorry? What? Maybe I read that wrong. Any site can be rigged by whoever programmed it to do whatever they want.

Not only did I say "Not to say a casino couldn't be rigged, but..." but I'm also a programmer. I'm well aware things can be programmed to do absolutely anything. Most online sites are misleading, but there are several that have even been found by this site, to be "rigged" in some fashion or another. Remember this very easy hint when it comes to online gambling... Don't do it unless you're willing to be cheated.

Quote: SOOPOO

Starting anew... you would hit an 18 loss streak around 1 in 10,000 times. So 4 times in a 5000 sample is rare, but not impossible.

i think the answer here is very incomplete and shows only one side of the coin

the chance of winning 1-time-in-a-row
is equal to
1 - ((0.60)^18) =
1- 0.000101559956668416 = 0.999898440043331584 = A
a very high probability for one attempt

to win 5000 times in a row =
A^5000 =
0.60180273436641420426351956685123 (rounded)
ONLY 60%, ugly i due say so
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
that means
0.39819726563358579573648043314877
is the probability of at least 1 such losing streak

time for a new laptop
easy come
easy go
Mully

Quote: Romes

That's pretty easy math to figure out. You have a 60% chance of losing... so the odds of losing 18 in a row are .6^18 = .0001 = 1 in 10,000... Still think it's lottery/unicorns/leprechauns/etc?

THIS is why Martingaling DOES NOT WORK.

the Marty DOES work.
It does just as well as any other betting system, sometimes even better

Quote: Romes

People constantly underestimate how frequently they'll run in to a large losing streak and dump everything.

the reason is they try to win 5000 times-in-a-row or more
that is simple grade-school math

and thank you for sharing
Sally

Quote: SOOPOO

...Given you seem to notice the streaks occur when you up your bet, I would guess you are probably playing a cheating site. But certainly not enough evidence to count as 'proof'.

Seconded.

This is interesting
https://www.moneypot.com/provably-fair

Strikes me as odd that they would ( see fit to ) trumpet this.

Roll up, roll up, come see the provably fair game.

Quote: techsavant

I was recently using a martingale type strategy on a site where I had a 40 percent chance of winning each bet.

Overall I placed about 5000 bets. The loss streaks were normally 8 or below, with it rising to 10 to 12, and occasionally you would see a 13 or 14, and rarely anything higher than that.

Toward the end of the 5000 bet run, I hit an 18 loss streak 4 times pretty much back to back to back to back.

What are the odds of hitting this with a 40/60 chance to win/lose ? What are the odds of hitting this more than once in close succession? Four times ? Seems a bit like I was playing a rigged site. This only happened when I increased my wagers by 10x towards the end, then suddenly hit 4 18 loss streaks and lost everything.

Seems rigged, but I don't know how to figure out the actual numbers.

Can anyone help ?

Thanks

You have 2 major things against you. 1. martingale isn't a winning system. 2. MANY online casinos are rigged, even ones with "good reputations".

Can you obtain a hand history? What's the Casino name?

I don't understand why if someone is going to spend a significant amount of time playing online they don't get a FREE simple screen recording app/program that records play? There are many youtube video program suggestions that include intrusions.

Right now we have to take you're word for it that you hit an 18 loss streak 4 times pretty much back to back to back to back. Honestly I think that's highly exaggerated(If true, I would be happy to eat crow).

I suggest anyone wanting to play online, sign up at Bovada from the this or the odds site (RECORD PLAY). If anything seems strange post the video. If enough evidence is gathered suggesting rigged software I believe a settlement is possible.


I assume you were winning until the "take down mode" kicked in?(people claim there's a take down mode, I believe this is possible at some online casinos) If you had a video you could possibly go back and recreate everything and then just stop prior to the "take down mode" Its the Holy grail, if you find a casino that pays out.

Hitting 18 losses in a row 4 times in quick succession within the span of 5000 bets (and as soon as you increase your bet sizes) is within the realm of possibility. BUT: the chances of this happening is so unlikely, that the exponentially more likely possibility of the online casino being rigged is almost certain by comparison.