I now believe Baccarat to be beatable

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September 10th, 2015 at 7:17:56 AM permalink

What is your chosen method or system of baccarat play?

It is one thing to come to this board and claim to be ahead; it is another thing to explain specifically what you did.

"What, me worry?"

DeMango

DeMango

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September 10th, 2015 at 3:22:06 PM permalink

I was the agree vote. I just wanted to see what color would pop up! In the absence of "I am a bigot" choice.

When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.

ontariodealer

ontariodealer

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September 10th, 2015 at 5:18:24 PM permalink

so you discover how to beat an unbeatable game and instead of becoming a zillionaire and buying your own island and stocking it with a truck load of hookers, you instead come to a website and proclaim your success.

get second you pig

Wizard
Administrator

Wizard

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September 10th, 2015 at 8:39:06 PM permalink

Thou shalt not believe in betting systems -- Gambling Commandment #6

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

Randombacplay12

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September 10th, 2015 at 11:25:40 PM permalink

Slow and steady boys

Right now I'm only betting $200 hands until I have a bigger bankroll

Right now only up 16,000 because I won another 5 units today

I was playing $100, but have now gone to $200

Now I'm aiming for 6 units and locking in 5

Randombacplay12

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September 10th, 2015 at 11:29:09 PM permalink

Also I need to mention I have not paid a cent in commission to the casino all week

MaxPen

MaxPen

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September 10th, 2015 at 11:29:56 PM permalink

Straight up?

I believe in unicorns and living pterodactyls.

MrV

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September 10th, 2015 at 11:35:14 PM permalink

Quote: MaxPen
Straight up?

I believe in unicorns and living pterodactyls.

Yes, and I am god.

Oops, I meant "I am dog"; danged dyslexia.

"What, me worry?"

RS

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September 10th, 2015 at 11:43:23 PM permalink

Congrats. You should do $1,000 units instead. Don't worry, you're sure to keep winning long term!

PlayYourCardsRight

PlayYourCardsRight

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September 10th, 2015 at 11:56:06 PM permalink

Do you have any lucky charms? Like maybe a monkey?

Randombacplay12

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September 10th, 2015 at 11:56:14 PM permalink

Lol I know your taking the piss but in due time

Randombacplay12

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September 10th, 2015 at 11:57:33 PM permalink

I'm actually thinking about hitting up cruise ships

I hear they have single deck blackjack

Randombacplay12

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September 11th, 2015 at 12:03:46 AM permalink

Keep this post in mind all the haters.

I expect to reach my target in 2.5-3 months until I have the bankroll for 1k bets

So I'll post then

OnceDear

OnceDear

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September 11th, 2015 at 4:54:54 AM permalink

Quote: Randombacplay12
Keep this post in mind all the haters.

I expect to reach my target in 2.5-3 months until I have the bankroll for 1k bets

So I'll post then

Yeah, whatever :)

Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.

AlanMendelson

AlanMendelson

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September 11th, 2015 at 6:45:25 AM permalink

Never played and don't know or understand. But recently I watched a table of high rollers in the Palace Court at Caesars. There was like five minutes of talking before one player would peak at the cards by bending and damaging the corners. WTF was going on? I got a kick out of watching players win 5k on one play then losing it on the next. Maybe there were two winners in a row.

Randombacplay12

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September 11th, 2015 at 7:37:27 AM permalink

By far best odds in casino.
You should learn.

One question to all the downers.

If I haven't paid any commission to the house in the past week, does that not mean I was playing a 50/50 game all week?

House edge on baccarat is so small it's barely there.

Romes

Romes

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September 11th, 2015 at 7:43:00 AM permalink

Quote: Randombacplay12
By far best odds in casino.
You should learn.

One question to all the downers.

If I haven't paid any commission to the house in the past week, does that not mean I was playing a 50/50 game all week?

House edge on baccarat is so small it's barely there.

Is this serious? Bac normally carries over a 1% edge. Any "No Commission" games, such as "EZ Baccarat" come with a 1% edge all the same (here's the Wiz's link to show the math). These no commission games change the rules "just slightly" so that the odds are still slightly over 1% HE and they don't have to deal with commissions.

Next, while Baccarat is one of the better games in a casino to play, it's by far NOT the best odds. Even a crappy-ish game of blackjack (8D H17) is .66%, almost half of the house edge of your precious baccarat game. Any DECENT game of blackjack will be around .35% and magnitudes of 2x-3x better than playing baccarat. This all also doesn't include card counting where you can actually get a PLAYER advantage. Then there's also craps, etc. Again, baccarat is one of the better games to play, but it's "by far" NOT the best odds in the casino.

Funny how once a month it seems someone shows up claiming to be able to beat Baccarat... Yet it's always the same:
1) They never provide any math to back up their claims.
2) They never provide their playing strategy so the math minds on here can do the math FOR THEM to back up their claims.
3) They always say they're up X, and they're going to take the casino down and they'll post about their winnings 'soon'... and then we never hear from them again and next month a new name pops up saying they too can win.

Playing it correctly means you've already won.

Ibeatyouraces

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September 11th, 2015 at 7:47:40 AM permalink

And it's not 50/50. How many times does this need to be repeated??

DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!

Ibeatyouraces

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September 11th, 2015 at 7:50:12 AM permalink

Quote: AlanMendelson
Never played and don't know or understand...

No offense Alan, but you don't understand 99% of what's going on in a casino.

DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!

boymimbo

boymimbo

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September 11th, 2015 at 8:24:58 AM permalink

Now how could one NOT take offense to that.

----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!

AlanMendelson

AlanMendelson

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September 11th, 2015 at 8:25:47 AM permalink

Quote: Ibeatyouraces
No offense Alan, but you don't understand 99% of what's going on in a casino.

Correct. But it's the 1% that I know that is what I play.

On the other hand, I don't pretend to know and play and be an expert on all 100%.

boymimbo

boymimbo

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September 11th, 2015 at 8:40:31 AM permalink

Ah, the smell of fresh blood. A new baccarat player with an unpublished system where they win every day, working their way up to the $1,000 level claiming that the math of Baccarat has miraculously changed at this one table, in this one casino, where the cards aren't distributed at random and the mathematical axioms and theories that make up our physical understanding of the universe have changed, at this table, at this place, for this player.

Wow.

ALL casino games are beatable short term. As exposure to the game increases, your variance decreases and your actual results get closer to your expected value, which all casinos have set to a loss under "fair" conditions. Fair conditions are those where collusion or cheating are not present and counting is not being utilized and the deck of cards are being given a fair shuffle. There will be even a few who play the game for a long time and still come out ahead. The person who won megamillions can likely play $1 slots for the rest of their life and be ahead. The person who wins a seven card straight flush on Fortune Pai Gow will likely be ahead for a very very long time. Bacarrat, however, carries a low house edge AND low variance, meaning that someone who is ahead won't be ahead for that long.

We have yet to see a long term ANYBODY on this forum beat anything unless they are counting, cheating (hole carding, colluding, etc), or taking advantage of a short-term advantage play (point promotions, progressive, bad sports odds, finding multipliers active in Ultimate X, etc).

Let us know how you're doing three months from now.

----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!

TwoFeathersATL

TwoFeathersATL

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September 11th, 2015 at 9:22:41 AM permalink

It's still fun to hear of a new/old Bac player that can't be beat, at least long term.
Better than slogging thru the 2016 election thread..

Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F

Wonko33

Wonko33

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September 11th, 2015 at 10:14:52 AM permalink

Guys, you don't get it! He said he looks at the board where it says which side has won the previous hands!!!

Somewhere a retired math teacher threw his hands in the air and said" well I tried, I tried"

So Wizard, still no basic strategy for strip poker huh?

MrV

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September 11th, 2015 at 10:14:52 AM permalink

Upon further review, the OP sort of described his system in his first post on the board: here

"What, me worry?"

PlayYourCardsRight

PlayYourCardsRight

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September 11th, 2015 at 10:23:46 AM permalink

I guess I owe the original poster an apology, for clearly the game is 50 - 50.

Either the banker wins or the player wins. See, two choices and I only have to pick one.

#endsarcasm

Ibeatyouraces

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September 11th, 2015 at 10:25:59 AM permalink

Quote: PlayYourCardsRight
I guess I owe the original poster an apology, for clearly the game is 50 - 50.

Either the banker wins or the player wins. See, two choices and I only have to pick one.

#endsarcasm

Does that make the lottery 50/50 also? You either win or lose there too.

DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!

RS

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September 11th, 2015 at 10:47:11 AM permalink

I smell a reincarnation of bacfag69

*Raindance for non-BBB admin*

Romes

Romes

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September 11th, 2015 at 11:20:18 AM permalink

Quote: MrV
Upon further review, the OP sort of described his system in his first post on the board: here

Good find...

So he uses a "quasi-Martingale" approach. Partial or full, it's a know, mathematically losing system. Can we close the thread now?

Playing it correctly means you've already won.

Ibeatyouraces

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September 11th, 2015 at 11:24:47 AM permalink

Quote: Romes
...Can we close the thread now?

And ruin our fun?...

DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!

beachbumbabs

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September 11th, 2015 at 12:31:38 PM permalink

Quote: RS
I smell a reincarnation of bacfag69

*Raindance for non-BBB admin*

That's unnecessarily insulting. I would wager I've banned more of B79's aliases than the rest of the mods combined at this point. I've been watching this one; so far it's just another deluded system-player, not a monkey-buggerer. Since there's both an educational and entertainment factor to this thread, I've left it to run. As, I might note, have all the other mods, who are no doubt watching as well.

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

FleaStiff

FleaStiff

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September 11th, 2015 at 12:44:45 PM permalink

We all thank the dedicated and tireless efforts of the "Green Inkers" who keep this board on a relatively even keel.

all 'systems' work under some circumstances for some amount of time. this is the allure of beating the game. In the end, we all know that tiny little ping pong ball is going to win in the end, but we want to have some fun and some free drinks first.

MrV

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September 11th, 2015 at 12:50:39 PM permalink

Only if you play recreationally.

Pity the AP's: sorry, but being serious, focused, and sober as a judge in a casino just seems "wrong."

"What, me worry?"

Romes

Romes

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September 11th, 2015 at 12:53:12 PM permalink

Quote: MrV
Only if you play recreationally.

Pity the AP's: sorry, but being serious, focused, and sober as a judge in a casino just seems "wrong."

Who says we have to be sober to be focused or implement something that's been muscle memory for years and years? =D

Playing it correctly means you've already won.

Randombacplay12

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September 11th, 2015 at 1:48:01 PM permalink

The commission is so barely there why would you want to calculated it?

I pay more commission in karma lol

I've made this deal with myself (and I have been true to my word)

If I win at least 15 units a week I will give 5% to charity

Your all hearing it wrong, I'm not aiming to win everyday

Not possible, I'm aiming to maximise my short term winnings and decreasing my loses. Hence only going in with 5 units

Randombacplay12

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September 11th, 2015 at 1:50:44 PM permalink

But serious question this time

What's every ones thoughts on single deck bj?

Cheapest here is a $300 hand but on a cruise ship it's like $10-$20

Randombacplay12

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September 11th, 2015 at 2:16:35 PM permalink

And someone talking about a mathematical loosing system

Yes that's fine and your correct, it's common sense.

But again you fail to see that I ONLY walk in with 5 units

I do not cash back in and chance my loses.

I wait for tomorrow

It's really not rocket science.

I'm not claiming a have a lose proof system here, I'm saying I like my mode of play very much and plus I explain to so many ppl in the cas when they wonder what the f I'm actually doing and they still don't click on anyways.

I never expected a 16 day win in a row, in hind sight it would be nice betting 1k a hand but unfortunately it's all about bankroll percentage
I will stay in 200 for 50 units then 400,500 then eventually that 1k

But that's just dreaming right now

Hey I could go in next week and lose two days in a row then I'm right back to start at $100 again

Only go mon-fri

Weekends are a death trap
Too many drunks and poorly (obviously on purpose) pre-shuffled cards.

Yes believe it or not I was a dealer for three years

Those pro- master shufflers are worth $40,000 each
They need to pay for themselves somehow (nothing is a purchase in the casino industry, just an investment)

The cards have chips in them, I've ran through those cards multiple times at the start of the shift and that machine will tell me who's missing (ace of spades etc.)

Those cards are placed in order, random shuffle my ass.

Depending on if dealer going to be nice I will try my best for a manual shuffle

RS

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September 11th, 2015 at 2:28:28 PM permalink

Quote: beachbumbabs
That's unnecessarily insulting. I would wager I've banned more of B79's aliases than the rest of the mods combined at this point. I've been watching this one; so far it's just another deluded system-player, not a monkey-buggerer. Since there's both an educational and entertainment factor to this thread, I've left it to run. As, I might note, have all the other mods, who are no doubt watching as well.

You always wait until the damage is done then wait a little longer before banning bacfag69.

waasnoday

waasnoday

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September 11th, 2015 at 2:32:05 PM permalink

Quote: Randombacplay12

Yes believe it or not I was a dealer for three years

Those pro- master shufflers are worth $40,000 each
They need to pay for themselves somehow (nothing is a purchase in the casino industry, just an investment)

The cards have chips in them, I've ran through those cards multiple times at the start of the shift and that machine will tell me who's missing (ace of spades etc.)

Those cards are placed in order, random shuffle my ass.

Depending on if dealer going to be nice I will try my best for a manual shuffle

Are you saying you think those shufflers arrange the cards so that the casino wins all the time? So how is it you have won anything at all if that is the case? I mean if the casino has the ability to preset the order of the cards then why have they not arranged for you to lose after seeing how much you have won? These machines do have the ability to determine if a card is missing but I have not seen any that can be set to order the cards in any way that would benefit the casino anymore than the player.

OnceDear

OnceDear

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September 11th, 2015 at 2:46:55 PM permalink

Quote: Randombacplay12
... loosing system ...

Gggggaaaahhhhhh. That alone should be grounds for a ban.

Quote: Randombacplay12
...I wait for tomorrow ...

And that! how many times must we say that sessions mean zilch?

Quote: Randombacplay12
... It's really not rocket science....

An insult to 3 year old rocket scientists

Quote: Randombacplay12
... I explain to so many ppl in the cas when they wonder what the f I'm actually doing and they still don't click on anyways.

An insult to ploppies.

Quote: Randombacplay12
... But that's just dreaming right now ...

Snore.... Dream on Randy.

Quote: Randombacplay12
... Yes believe it or not I was a dealer for three years...

Not!

Quote: Randombacplay12
... The cards have chips in them, I've ran through those cards multiple times at the start of the shift and that machine will tell me who's missing (ace of spades etc.)...

Never heard of OCR. It's not rocket science.

Quote: Randombacplay12
... Those cards are placed in order, random shuffle my ass.

Why? Why take random which gives a house edge, destroy it and give non-random which can be interpreted by geniuses by you? Is the house so stupid? And how stupid would you be to reject non-random and insist on random?

Why the hell are we still reading this nonsense? I hope the OP is not B79 and that he's really playing this way. I want to see him lose as an object lesson to all who would follow.

Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.

beachbumbabs

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September 11th, 2015 at 2:49:36 PM permalink

Quote: RS
You always wait until the damage is done then wait a little longer before banning bacfag69.

Untrue. I've banned him 6 times before he could/did post, 5 times on a single post that I then deleted, and 4 times when he'd posted multiple times and I had to go back and clean those off. 1 time I banned him but did not delete because of too many responses that carried a discussion of its own merit before I saw the thread/ID, and 3 times after he'd run for a couple days unproven as a B79 account, as well as the 3 day and the nuking of the original account. I've been keeping a score card, in case you're wondering, but hadn't wanted to discuss numbers as it's some kind of sicko badge of honor for him. However, I resent your aspersions, so there's some facts for you. Now it's on your head if he starts attacking again in response to your bringing it up, which has been a past pattern.

Face has popped him several times, including a couple where I had suspicions but no proof, and very likely Mission or Wizard has popped him at least once. I don't know their numbers.

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

beachbumbabs

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September 11th, 2015 at 2:59:54 PM permalink

Quote: OnceDear
Gggggaaaahhhhhh. ....

...Why the hell are we still reading this nonsense? I hope the OP is not B79 and that he's really playing this way. I want to see him lose as an object lesson to all who would follow.

We are still reading this in part because several people are finding it entertaining, but mostly because it's pervasive nonsense that needs to be refuted from time to time as new people are constantly joining the board.

This particular person is not B79, unless he's living and posting from a far, different continent these days. Whether he's a previously banned member at all is not indicated at this time, but also not beyond possibility.

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

Randombacplay12

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September 11th, 2015 at 3:03:47 PM permalink

Wow someone lost big haha.

I started out as a blackjack dealer for a year counting cards for all the weekend warriors (back in the day when you could count cards on $10 tables)

Then spent last of 2 of my 3 years dealing baccarat.

I seen it everyday.

I swear they switch them to be either less or more favourable.

(So I can actually check win/loss of the table)

I've seen a table down over 1 million when I log in.

Dude when the casino was quiet my job used to be in the card room feeding the cards into this weird, different more expensive shuffler.

What purpose do I have if I'm not trying to sell anything, for boasting about a winning system

Which mind you wouldn't be a winning system if I didn't exploit the win/loss and just walk in with the 5 units

But hey you better than me, your the rocket scientist.

Really?

Who cares.

But hey, I'm not boasting about my life style nooo

That would be arrogant as all f***

Wow, I really get annoyed at arrogant ppl.
It's amazing that we still have ppl like that in this world.

Lol I was almost dumb enough to post what I do for a living, had to delete that bit.
Not hard to find out who I am.

All i wanna say is arrogance is a funny thing and I actually pitty those that have it.

As life is obviously not too kind

Randombacplay12

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September 11th, 2015 at 3:07:16 PM permalink

Nah never been a member before beach

P.s- yes I do like to stir the pot abit

After all I don't do much anyway, only in cas 1-2 hrs a day

I got a few hours up my sleeve to f with ya

1BB

1BB

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September 11th, 2015 at 3:13:39 PM permalink

Quote: Randombacplay12
But serious question this time

What's every ones thoughts on single deck bj?

Cheapest here is a $300 hand but on a cruise ship it's like $10-$20

You've started this thread exactly where you should have in a forum established by the Wizard himself.

I'll answer your blackjack question without ridiculing you, without saying I'm watching you, without calling you "just another deluded systems-player", and without calling your posts "pervasive nonsense".

Single deck blackjack can be very profitable under the right conditions. I'm not sure a cruise ship is where those conditions can be found. If you'd like to explore single deck, post something under blackjack.

Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi

beachbumbabs

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September 11th, 2015 at 3:14:19 PM permalink

Quote: Randombacplay12
Nah never been a member before beach

P.s- yes I do like to stir the pot abit

After all I don't do much anyway, only in cas 1-2 hrs a day

I got a few hours up my sleeve to f with ya

Yeah, I noticed. lol...

Careful you don't turn into a troll.

The point of this site and forum, and its sister site, Wizard of Odds, is to provide true odds and risk evaluation of various casino games, debunk systems and system sellers based on the math, and provide strategies for maximizing people's chances on various games.

You're claiming a vague winning system for baccarat. The mathematicians and pro players here know there isn't one. So far, you've failed to provide any details or proof of any advantage you have beyond sheer dumb luck, so you're not going to be getting a lot of love. Maybe you'll have something of value to offer, maybe not, but something of substance would be good at this point.

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

Randombacplay12

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September 11th, 2015 at 3:22:23 PM permalink

It's not the system that's the winner here.

Yes luck has a lot to do with it.
Gambling is gambling.

I don't like calling it a system mind you, just a mode of play

So this particular mode of play will only let me bet 10-15 hands per shoe.
Thus me only playing half on 6 not commission.

Very rarely do I hit a six, so there is almost no commission.

If this mode of play is going to payout for the day I will know by the third hand. Because I will obviously be out.

5 unit bank roll

1-2-2 right

Then when I win

1-2-3

Then eventually win again and can afford the
1-2-4

It's more about exploiting wins/losses

Theres no point worrying about commissions/maths

We can't help that, they are not going to change so why stress about that in which you can't help.

Randombacplay12