Craps Place Bet Maximum

Greetings everyone! I joined this forum since it seems to attract students of the bettor world. I welcome all feedback. I just got off the phone with presumably a pit boss from a local casino. I asked him what the table maximum would be if I wanted to place a place bet. He said as long as the payout doesn't exceed $5000 then it's a legal bet. In this scenario, the highest bet for a single place 6 or 8 that pays $7 to $6 wager pays $4998 to $4284 wager. Nevertheless, that figure is off of the progression track with a $5 minimum ($6, $12, $24, $48, $96, $192, $384, $768, $1536, $3072).

I ran a simulation to find out how far I would be able to Martingale the 6, working every roll including come outs. I used Excel's randbetween function: =randbetween(1,6)+randbetween(1,6), to simulate a pair of dice. It took me 722 rolls for my wager to extend to $3072. (see below) However, it won and I was one exactly roll away from gambler's ruin with the next roll being another 7. Nine (9) 7s appeared before I would see a 6 in that situation.



My own simulation let's me know that this is a loser's proposition over time. What's the likelihood of nine (9) 7s rolling before a 6 appears? I'm sure the answer is 16% or so. Any thoughts?

Quote: crapsrelapse

My own simulation let's me know that this is a loser's proposition over time. What's the likelihood of nine (9) 7s rolling before a 6 appears? I'm sure the answer is 16% or so. Any thoughts?

That's easy, only the sevens and sixes count for anything, so you have six sevens and five different sixes.

The probability of nine sevens coming before a six is, therefore:

(6/11)^9 = 0.00427392687

Which is 0.427392687% or approximately 1 in 233.976862594 initial series starts.

unless there is a stick change....then the odds of seven greatly increases.

Quote: ontariodealer

unless there is a stick change....then the odds of seven greatly increases.

That's funny, I wish it were true because my "wrong" bets would resolve greatly in my favor; I'd hunt down tables that are close to a stick change lol.

I do hear a lot of people grown at the table when it happens.

Quote: NYSith

That's funny, I wish it were true because my "wrong" bets would resolve greatly in my favor;

of course it is true

being that the last roll was not a 7

that makes the probability of the last roll a 7 to B 0.0%

now with a stick change the chance of a 7 goes from 0% (the last roll was not a 7) to 16.67%
so i guess it does increase greatly

of course,
given that the last roll WAS a 7, the probability = 100% that the last roll was a 7
so given a stick change, i say the chance the next roll is a 7 now has greatly decreased to 16.67% from 100%

Quote: NYSith

I'd hunt down tables that are close to a stick change lol.

does not they change stick every 20 minutes?
no hunting required (unless you paid for a hunting licence... you better get your moneys worth and hunt)


Lay Bets Rule!

Go Sally Go!

for the OP
you should get abouts 1,678 rolls , on average, to see at least 9 7s B4 one (1) 6
it happened 20 times in the Zumma Actual Casino Dice Roll Collection (35,097 casino dice rolls)

i bet you thought it would not happen that often?
lots of small increasing wins with a few LARGE bankroll killing losses (losing events)

Seek out a table with a woman shooter who is playing craps for the first time: "virgins" always light it up.

Beware if one or both dice bounce off the table during her shoot as the odds of seeing a seven out increase exponentially.

:)

Quote: MrV

Seek out a table with a woman shooter who is playing craps for the first time: "virgins" always light it up.

This seems to be true?

I always like to bet on newlywed brides, grooms not so much. Notice the phallic stack of chips in front of the brunette on the don't. Subliminal. I noticed the rock with the fur with the rack, lucky lucky lucky. The hook has a hook.

I guess the alligator board has been around since people dressed up, to go down? Also, looks like double on the field on both ends?

How about a caption for the guy on the end? Is that the "puck" on the five? Maybe, before "odds behind"?

Quote: mustangsally

now with a stick change the chance of a 7 goes from 0% (the last roll was not a 7) to 16.67%
so i guess it does increase greatly

Cool observation

Quote: mustangsally

Lay Bets Rule!

lots of small increasing wins with a few LARGE bankroll killing losses (losing events)

I agree, Lay Bets do rule. Unfortunately I get some dirty looks from the other players when I set the money down and tell the dealer to lay against the point or whatever number I choose. Easier to go under the radar from the DP and not catch as much heat. Lay bets haven't delivered me any bankroll killing losses, but I'm not playing at a high roller level either. I usually squeak out a series of small wins more frequently than loses.