falecf4
falecf4
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December 7th, 2014 at 7:23:54 PM permalink
Well, I didn't see a welcome thread for new members so I thought I'd make my own. Hey I'm Cody!

I've been gambling since before I was allowed to legally. I used to play strictly Texas Holdem, then tried slots, then found table games and finally I found this forum! It's been interesting this last few months learning how hopelessly bad I've had it over the last 10+ year gambling. I've been burning through tons of topics and 100's of pages of posts learning as much as I can as fast as I can. It makes me feel like I already know a bunch of you after reading so many of your replies on variety of topics. Haha, that's part of the reason I named my thread the way I did and I almost decided on a username of "gr8"something. I even contemplated touting a system of some sort just to get some of you riled up but I'm not good at keeping up those kinds of charades.

Anyway, the reason I'm posting in this particular area is because when I discovered baccarat and started understanding it I went on a mission to find a system for it. I'd like to ease some minds by saying up front by saying that I FULLY understand how the math plays out on all systems "over time", however one decides to define that. With that being said, I would still like to discuss some of the systems I've come up with and that others have posted about because I enjoy doing so. In sharing these "betting systems" and discussing them I hope to nail down something that I am comfortable with playing even if the result approaches HE eventually since flat betting is BORING! I also hope to educate others looking for systems that they are essentially useless but just maybe they can find something that suits them, and their bankroll, as a style for them to play personally.

Thanks for reading!
"I'm not superstitious but I am a little stitious." -Michael Scott
Gandler
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December 7th, 2014 at 7:32:30 PM permalink
I agree 100%, a lot of people on here say to do nothing but flatbet. But if the house has the same edge it is irrelevant in the long run, flatbetting has no advatnages over betting systems. If you are playing purely for entertainment then there is no problems with betting systems as it can make games more entertaining.

I don't know this for sure, but from my experience, betting systems seem to get you higher comp levels much faster than when I flatbet. Perhaps because the rater views you as an ammature or addicted player so they may try to temp you in more, but that's just a theory from my experience. In any case if you go with a set bankroll and are playing purely for entertainment, betting systems are good fun.
sodawater
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December 7th, 2014 at 7:35:09 PM permalink
OK, so you understand that no betting system can change the house edge, and that baccarat is a negative game that you must lose if you play long enough.

So why are you interested in a betting system?

Since baccarat costs money to play, the only reason to play it is fun.

For me at least, having to adhere to a system in a negative game would not be as fun. It would be like having a rigid system on when to go to the movies.

The optimal betting system for baccarat is to bet whatever maximizes your entertainment within your entertainment budget. Personally, I always bet on banker because it has a slightly better chance to win.

If somehow it's more fun for you to adhere to a system than to bet whatever you want any given hand, then have at it. But it seems that system adherents lose sight of the immutable fact that their system loses at exactly the same rate as any other system.
falecf4
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December 7th, 2014 at 8:32:42 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

OK, so you understand that no betting system can change the house edge, and that baccarat is a negative game that you must lose if you play long enough. yes

So why are you interested in a betting system? Why are you interested in my interest of a betting system?! J/K. I like to have rules to adhere to...keeps my gambling in check! Example, I will only play slots with free play or once a month with a small, specific amount of money set aside just for slots.

Since baccarat costs money to play, the only reason to play it is fun. It would seem so.

For me at least, having to adhere to a system in a negative game would not be as fun. It would be like having a rigid system on when to go to the movies. I'd say it's more like having a plan for snacks at the movies. If I'm going to the movies money is getting spent same as at the casino but why not have a plan for when I get there to get the most for my money?

The optimal betting system for baccarat is to bet whatever maximizes your entertainment within your entertainment budget. Personally, I always bet on banker because it has a slightly better chance to win. agreed

If somehow it's more fun for you to adhere to a system than to bet whatever you want any given hand, then have at it. But it seems that system adherents lose sight of the immutable fact that their system loses at exactly the same rate as any other system.I would consider a flat bet a system or at least a method. Allowing myself to randomly bet an amount, even if restricted to banker, seems reckless. A system will at least keep me in check. On that note I'd love to see a simulation over 1,000,000 or more hands putting a system up against a random bet at random times on banker.

"I'm not superstitious but I am a little stitious." -Michael Scott
AxelWolf
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December 7th, 2014 at 8:46:26 PM permalink
Quote: falecf4

Well, I didn't see a welcome thread for new members so I thought I'd make my own. Hey I'm Cody!

I've been gambling since before I was allowed to legally. I used to play strictly Texas Holdem, then tried slots, then found table games and finally I found this forum! It's been interesting this last few months learning how hopelessly bad I've had it over the last 10+ year gambling. I've been burning through tons of topics and 100's of pages of posts learning as much as I can as fast as I can. It makes me feel like I already know a bunch of you after reading so many of your replies on variety of topics. Haha, that's part of the reason I named my thread the way I did and I almost decided on a username of "gr8"something. I even contemplated touting a system of some sort just to get some of you riled up but I'm not good at keeping up those kinds of charades.

Anyway, the reason I'm posting in this particular area is because when I discovered baccarat and started understanding it I went on a mission to find a system for it. I'd like to ease some minds by saying up front by saying that I FULLY understand how the math plays out on all systems "over time", however one decides to define that. With that being said, I would still like to discuss some of the systems I've come up with and that others have posted about because I enjoy doing so. In sharing these "betting systems" and discussing them I hope to nail down something that I am comfortable with playing even if the result approaches HE eventually since flat betting is BORING! I also hope to educate others looking for systems that they are essentially useless but just maybe they can find something that suits them, and their bankroll, as a style for them to play personally.

Thanks for reading!

There's lots of sites that are Baccarat/system friendly. No matter how much you claim to understand Baccarat systems are useless. Most members probably are not convinced you actually believe they are worthless. Your post reads like a ploy or something with a hidden agenda. Obviously you tried a different approach in order to avoid being slammed. I still believe you will be meet with negativity on this forum talking about Baccarat systems period.

edited to to quote the intended person.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Dieter
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December 7th, 2014 at 9:00:43 PM permalink
Quote: Gandler

betting systems seem to get you higher comp levels much faster than when I flatbet.



You don't have to flat bet the minimum. Comps "should" be based on average bet * time... so the only reason I can imagine that comps build up higher playing a system is because your average bet is higher.
May the cards fall in your favor.
Gandler
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December 7th, 2014 at 9:03:06 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

There's lots of sites that are Baccarat/system friendly. No matter how much you claim to understand Baccarat systems are useless. Most members probably are not convinced you actually believe they are worthless. Your post reads like a ploy or something with a hidden agenda. Obviously you tried a different approach in order to avoid being slammed. I still believe you will be meet with negativity on this forum talking about Baccarat systems period.



Please elaborate? What hidden agenda can I possibly have? Also, when is even the last time I have even made a post or question about systems?

Also, almost all of my opinions are unpopular, everywhere in real life as well as here, I am not somebody who cares about being popular (that is probably abundantly obvious by now). But I don't mind standing for what I know is right.

But I really want to know what "hidden agenda" I can possibly have by agreeing with somebody on the entertainment value of ways to play? I always enjoy conspiracy theories.
Gandler
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December 7th, 2014 at 9:16:35 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

You don't have to flat bet the minimum. Comps "should" be based on average bet * time... so the only reason I can imagine that comps build up higher playing a system is because your average bet is higher.



I know. Its been over 6 months since I've been in a casino so I can't repeat the exact math. But based on my calculations compared to a Comp calc. I found online (again no clue how reputable it was), even factoring in the average of my range, I found I made drastically more comp points than I should with sporadically different size bets (than had I flat betted the average of my range). I suppose that it is possible the raters were not watching carefully. But I usually play late at night when it is really quiet (I am often the only person at the table, sometimes in the group of tables), so unless he was very oblivious I don't think that was the issue.
AxelWolf
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December 7th, 2014 at 9:27:24 PM permalink
Quote: Gandler

Please elaborate? What hidden agenda can I possibly have? Also, when is even the last time I have even made a post or question about systems?

Also, almost all of my opinions are unpopular, everywhere in real life as well as here, I am not somebody who cares about being popular (that is probably abundantly obvious by now). But I don't mind standing for what I know is right.

But I really want to know what "hidden agenda" I can possibly have by agreeing with somebody on the entertainment value of ways to play? I always enjoy conspiracy theories.

QUOTED WRONG PERSON sorry
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Gandler
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December 7th, 2014 at 9:32:26 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

QUOTED WRONG PERSON sorry



fair enough, its all good.
falecf4
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December 7th, 2014 at 11:56:28 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

There's lots of sites that are Baccarat/system friendly. No matter how much you claim to understand Baccarat systems are useless. Most members probably are not convinced you actually believe they are worthless. Your post reads like a ploy or something with a hidden agenda. Obviously you tried a different approach in order to avoid being slammed. I still believe you will be meet with negativity on this forum talking about Baccarat systems period.

edited to to quote the intended person.



I believe there are but, at least from my searching, this site shows up first in searches and seems to have the best resources. The math is what matters anyway isn't it? If you want to link some of those other sites for me I'm sure they'd be an interesting read. I've watched the members here tear apart anything that doesn't make sense so I am under no illusion that betting systems work. I'm sure there are people that think that somehow some way they will find the magical combination of numbers that will make their system work but it isn't me.

Like I said in my original post, I found baccarat and went to looking for a system. Honestly I've only played the game a hand full of times in the casino with small bets on banker. I came up with a system which ended up being a martingale but at that point I didn't even know that's what it was. I went through two variations before I really started searching online. When I found this forum, wizard of odds and ImSpirit's blog I got a quick lesson in the effectiveness of systems.

So more than anything in this thread I'm basically going to be going through systems I came up with and where they fail. I'll also have pictures for those newbies who cant quite understand the math but should be able to handle my score sheets. So once again, this thread was an introduction of myself and will be a place that I will post systems I came up with, what seems like their benefits and how they ultimately fail.

AxelWolf I was going to give you a shout out in my original post but decided to wait. If I were in Vegas I'd jump at the opportunity to learn from you and the AP plays and you have going on. I hope to learn more from you anyway because you seem to be one of the most experienced members here.
"I'm not superstitious but I am a little stitious." -Michael Scott
odiousgambit
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December 8th, 2014 at 2:44:11 AM permalink
Quote: falecf4

I'm sure there are people that think that somehow some way they will find the magical combination of numbers that will make their system work but it isn't me.



Quote: falecf4

this thread was an introduction of myself and will be a place that I will post systems I came up with, what seems like their benefits and how they ultimately fail



I'm having trouble reconciling these two things. There's nothing worse for me than trying to figure out what some complicated system is about knowing all along it is just 'some system'. Go ahead, I won't stop you but will not be reading
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Dieter
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December 8th, 2014 at 11:44:55 AM permalink
Quote: Gandler

I suppose that it is possible the raters were not watching carefully.



Now that's a real possibility. They could have put in your max bet as your average... so don't count on earning at that rate again. :)
May the cards fall in your favor.
Canyonero
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December 8th, 2014 at 12:13:58 PM permalink
Welcome to the forum falecf, you seem like a sane person. Your fresh input is appreciated.

I agree that betting systems are fun. I usually have a game plan (e.g. press 3 times or lose, then restart at min bet) and stick to it for a while, then maybe switch to a different approach. Just betting "what I feel like" doesn't do it for me.

Concerning complevels: If you play it right, you will get higher comp levels if you bet "erratically" vs. just flatbetting. Your complevel at tablegames depends on the average bet as perceived by the pitboss. If you "go crazy" while they are close, more often than not you will benefit.
falecf4
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December 8th, 2014 at 3:00:56 PM permalink
Quote: Canyonero

Welcome to the forum falecf, you seem like a sane person. Your fresh input is appreciated.



Thank you for the welcome Canyonero!
"I'm not superstitious but I am a little stitious." -Michael Scott
ThatDonGuy
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December 8th, 2014 at 4:27:18 PM permalink
Quote: falecf4

Anyway, the reason I'm posting in this particular area is because when I discovered baccarat and started understanding it I went on a mission to find a system for it. I'd like to ease some minds by saying up front by saying that I FULLY understand how the math plays out on all systems "over time", however one decides to define that. With that being said, I would still like to discuss some of the systems I've come up with and that others have posted about because I enjoy doing so. In sharing these "betting systems" and discussing them I hope to nail down something that I am comfortable with playing even if the result approaches HE eventually since flat betting is BORING! I also hope to educate others looking for systems that they are essentially useless but just maybe they can find something that suits them, and their bankroll, as a style for them to play personally.


Pardon me for asking, but what are you trying to achieve with your systems? Maximum time at the table? Maximum excitement? Maximum profit? Greatest likelihood of making money? What you want to do should dictate what your system should be. For example, flat betting would appear to be best for maximum time at the table.
falecf4
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December 8th, 2014 at 6:03:37 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Pardon me for asking, but what are you trying to achieve with your systems? Maximum time at the table? Maximum excitement? Maximum profit? Greatest likelihood of making money? What you want to do should dictate what your system should be. For example, flat betting would appear to be best for maximum time at the table.



When I first started my quest for a system it was to WIN. So a "winning" system, in my mind, would fulfill all of the above with the exception of maximum excitement. If I wanted maximum excitement I would probably randomly bet with large bets but that is also scary to me. According to every thread and chart on the subject of systems vs. flat betting they all clearly show flat betting being the best option in the long run which would seem to also meet all of the above except excitement. Some systems may show a better result for a small period of time due to some variance but they fall hard in the long run.

So I will talk systems and show some because its still fun for me at the moment but I am even more interested in learning from the APs here. Winning is my end game/goal.
"I'm not superstitious but I am a little stitious." -Michael Scott
sodawater
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December 8th, 2014 at 6:11:51 PM permalink
If winning is your goal I encourage you to learn games other than baccarat.

AP opportunities at baccarat are rare unless you are Phil Ivey.
Dieter
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December 8th, 2014 at 8:55:35 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

AP opportunities at baccarat are rare unless you are Phil Ivey.



... just guessing that a fair number of his have dried up now, too.
May the cards fall in your favor.
falecf4
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December 8th, 2014 at 11:49:04 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I'm having trouble reconciling these two things. There's nothing worse for me than trying to figure out what some complicated system is about knowing all along it is just 'some system'.



A soon as you see it is a system shouldn't it automatically register as "some system" every time? Therefore, no need to figure out the "complicated system". However, I have seen many of the systems posted here being attempted by members maybe just out of curiosity as to how they look on paper or when programed and played out.


Quote: odiousgambit

Go ahead, I won't stop you but will not be reading.



Thanks for the info... I haven't seen many posts by you in these types of threads so I'm not surprised but I noticed you do post on a bunch of other interesting topics so I WILL be reading.
"I'm not superstitious but I am a little stitious." -Michael Scott
thecesspit
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December 9th, 2014 at 12:37:05 AM permalink
Quote: falecf4

When I first started my quest for a system it was to WIN. So a "winning" system, in my mind, would fulfill all of the above with the exception of maximum excitement. If I wanted maximum excitement I would probably randomly bet with large bets but that is also scary to me. According to every thread and chart on the subject of systems vs. flat betting they all clearly show flat betting being the best option in the long run which would seem to also meet all of the above except excitement. Some systems may show a better result for a small period of time due to some variance but they fall hard in the long run.

So I will talk systems and show some because its still fun for me at the moment but I am even more interested in learning from the APs here. Winning is my end game/goal.



Win more sessions than you lose, or win more money than you lose, overall? The first is easy enough to do. The latter is possible, just not probable, but with a couple of caveats you might not like...

Theres many ways to bet to alter the probabilty distrubution curve over time. All end up with the same %ev for the game... while the $ev can vary, the Actual Value is over a curve of values.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
falecf4
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December 9th, 2014 at 12:58:13 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Win more sessions than you lose, or win more money than you lose, overall? The first is easy enough to do. The latter is possible, just not probable, but with a couple of caveats you might not like...

Theres many ways to bet to alter the probabilty distrubution curve over time. All end up with the same %ev for the game... while the $ev can vary, the Actual Value is over a curve of values.



Winning sessions is great and all but winning money is what matters! Winning 100 sessions with 5 units each and 1 losing session of 1000 units is still losing.

With the different betting methods are you truly altering the "probability distribution curve" or are simply managing to take advantage of it with the different betting styles?
"I'm not superstitious but I am a little stitious." -Michael Scott
AxelWolf
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December 9th, 2014 at 2:41:21 AM permalink
Quote: falecf4

A soon as you see it is a system shouldn't it automatically register as "some system" every time? Therefore, no need to figure out the "complicated system"..

EXACTLY RIGHT 100% TRUE. THAT'S A VERY SIMPLE WAY TO PUT IT AND IT'S TRUE.

Are there ways to beat baccarat? YES, YES, YES. They may be completed to pull off. However, the math is very simple. If you or someone can't explain easily why you have an advantage then you most definitely DON'T have one.

Easily explained= Edge sorting
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
falecf4
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December 9th, 2014 at 5:18:15 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

They may be completed to pull off. Easily explained= Edge sorting



You mean complicated? Edge sorting?

I may have figured out a way but it is more complicated than anything I've seen. Still explainable though and programmable....maybe good enough for a certain challenge but I'm still putting it through its paces.
"I'm not superstitious but I am a little stitious." -Michael Scott
odiousgambit
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December 9th, 2014 at 6:31:37 AM permalink
Quote: falecf4

I haven't seen many posts by you in these types of threads so I'm not surprised but I noticed you do post on a bunch of other interesting topics so I WILL be reading.



I'll tell you what, I'll try to pick up on other comments from those I respect and if somebody says "this is a bit different" then I'll read your example and try to get something out of it!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
thecesspit
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December 9th, 2014 at 8:05:59 AM permalink
Quote: falecf4

Winning sessions is great and all but winning money is what matters! Winning 100 sessions with 5 units each and 1 losing session of 1000 units is still losing.

With the different betting methods are you truly altering the "probability distribution curve" or are simply managing to take advantage of it with the different betting styles?



Changing it, for the sessions you play (or lifes one big session). NOT for individual hands, but overall, there is a series of potential bankroll values you can have, and a probability you will be at each of them. The area under the curve is 100%, and the product of the value and the probability at each value adds up to the expected value, which will be negative.

You can see this by working out the possible values at the end of 4 step Martingale. 5 results, 4 of which win 1 unit, the fifth loses 8 units. You can the iterate it repeatedly and create the curve after 100 plays, for example. You will find it's got a large probability of a small win and a low probability of a large loss.

You can turn it around, and play a 4-step Parlay, and end up with a small probability of a large win and a large probability of a small loss.

You can model flat betting, and see a roughly normal bell curve, shifted over to the left hand side, showing a loss is more likely than a win.

EV is always the same. The pattern of potential results changes.


Here's my simple winning system:

Play a four step martingale. Once. If you win, you are now a winner and can stop playing. If you lose, stop, you'll be loser. You are more likely to win than lose in this scenario. But you can only do it once.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
AxelWolf
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December 10th, 2014 at 3:09:41 AM permalink
Quote: falecf4

You mean complicated? Edge sorting?

I may have figured out a way but it is more complicated than anything I've seen. Still explainable though and programmable....maybe good enough for a certain challenge but I'm still putting it through its paces.

complicated to pull off yes, but rarely complicated to explain and show the math.

There are various Advantage slot machines that I couldn't possibly show you the math however its very obvious once you know what to look for that its a significant advantage.

If I had to wait for the exact calculations on particular slots or AP plays I would miss out significantly. I have played many many thing not knowing exactly what the advantage is. Eventually someone comes up with exact calculations but by then its probably to late. You don't always have time. Very few times Have I been wrong.

I have misjudged slots both ways. luckily it never takes long to realize it.

On table the main table games If it's anything worthwhile its not complicated. I'm willing to bet if there's anything to your system its already been figured out. If not you're wasting your time.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
MangoJ
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December 13th, 2014 at 2:01:58 AM permalink
Quote: falecf4

Anyway, the reason I'm posting in this particular area is because when I discovered baccarat and started understanding it I went on a mission to find a system for it. I'd like to ease some minds by saying up front by saying that I FULLY understand how the math plays out on all systems "over time", however one decides to define that. With that being said, I would still like to discuss some of the systems I've come up with and that others have posted about because I enjoy doing so. In sharing these "betting systems" and discussing them I hope to nail down something that I am comfortable with playing even if the result approaches HE eventually since flat betting is BORING! I also hope to educate others looking for systems that they are essentially useless but just maybe they can find something that suits them, and their bankroll, as a style for them to play personally.



There is nothing wrong with any betting system. The question is, what should the purpose of the betting system be. If you want to limit expected losses (and you must play), the best betting system is to flat bet table minimum on the banker bet.

Of course it is BORING (as you say), this particular betting system does not maximize excitement, it minimizes expected losses. If you want a maximally excited betting system, you should define a measure how you quantify excitement. One could be variation on bet sizes, variation in winnings and stuff. Unless you define something (meaning we all know what you are talking about) we can discuss how effective any betting system will increase the excitement.
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