I challenge you to debunk my betting system

deleted

Quote: Omaha

What are the odds of winning doubling with at eleven against a dealers 4, 5, and 6?

you do not know?
and you make bets without knowing?

you must have an idea

what IS that idea??

win 90 out of 100
maybe better like 95 out of 100
can not be less than winning 80 out of 100, right?

Quote: Omaha

or any card for that matter?

now you want an average
say, 55% on average depending on the rules of the game

Quote: Omaha

I am wrong to believe they are extremely favorable

extremely favorable has a meaning of again??
maybe greater than 90%
yes, you are wrong, I agree, no opinion

Quote: Omaha

and I got VERY unlucky?

not very

but you actually play BJ with real $$$ not knowing the exact probabilities of your actions
that is gambling and should be much fun!

Sally

Quote: mustangsally

but thank you for sharing your non-professional opinion
and NOT showing any math

Why anyone would want to spend time calculating and showing math on a losing game or system for no benefits ill never know.( ya sure, its as fun as sex)
Most of the super math guys and gals never make a dime APing. They are good at math but don't have what it takes to apply it. They get stuck in their little math boxes and don't think outside them. Most are nerdy and socially awkward away from their keyboards, usually seeking what the non math guys easily come by. Mathematicians are a dime a dozen and usually poorly employed by the non math guys.

Quote:

Let's say someone starts a blackjack session with $500 at a $5 table and they (wrongly) have faith in a Martingale system and plan to double their bet after every loss ($10, $20, $40, $80, etc.) until they run out of money or win a hand. They plan to make a $5 bet after every win.

When this person is making a bet for an amount other than $5, meaning they are risking more money to recover their previous loss (or loses), wouldn't it be advantageous for them to play more conservatively and pass on Double Down situations in order to limit their risk and, in some situations, increase their chances of winning that particular hand?

This seems to make a ton of sense in my above mentioned situation.. (Giving no credence whatsoever to the martingale) As when a big bet of $500 is made its more important to win the hand, and I have a slightly better chance of doing so when able to take more than one card, and limit my risk of losing the hand and losing $500 of non sequence (non house) money .Also any surrender at this point would result still result in atleast a $525 win for the sequence.($300 on the $400 bet and $250 on the surrender) Would it not be wise to surrender more stiff hands than basic strategy dictates? Is there any validity to this?

In other words, I bet $500 but I only risked 25 bucks because I presses my bets, why not be happy with a considerable win when I have the chance and not risk more when I have a significant win already?

In theory, if the martingale system is so bad, so if you double your bet after every win up to the table max, are you not forcing the casino into playing the martingale system against you? As they are forced to double their bet (take action on your bet) after every loss the casino incurs, up to inevitable disaster (for the casino) ?

The casino would win one unit every failed sequence by the player (same as the martingale). But when the table max is hit, it's disaster for the casino (not really but you get the idea) .

I'm curious what the computer 100,000 hands simulator would discover if someone sat with a 50,000 buy in (closer to the casinos unlimited bankroll) and bet in $25 increments double up to the table max of say $1000 after any win, and repeating that bet until any loss, where they would start back over at $25. Set a $5,000 win goal or go broke first and see who would be ahead.

$25, $50, $100, $200, $400, $800, $1000, $1000, $1000....

Quote: AxelWolf

Most of the super math guys and gals never make a dime APing. They are good at math but don't have what it takes to apply it. They get stuck in their little math boxes and don't think outside them. Most are nerdy and socially awkward away from their keyboards, usually seeking what the non math guys easily come by. Mathematicians are a dime a dozen and usually poorly employed by the non math guys.

Hey! I think I'm insulted.

Quote: Wizard

Hey! I think I'm insulted.

Damm it, I thought you were busy with football, I knew you might be but shouldn't not meant for you, im pissed I wasn't offered a shirt ( I said most ) I just meant it specifically for certain people. They know who they are.

PS. Sally is not nice to poor innocent Djatc.

Quote: odiousgambit

If I was a mathematician I would try to prove my current theory, which is that it you would get the same results with system one as system 2 below. By same results I mean percentage of sessions that win on average.

#1] a system that has you doubling your bets on the prompt that you just lost a bet - the Martingale

#2] a system that has you doubling your bets on a different prompt, such as when a good looking cocktail waitress walks by.

I do not suggest using system #2.

As soon as the house catches on, they might send a string of cocktail waitresses by whenever the count turns to their favor.

Quote: Omaha

Would it not be wise to surrender more stiff hands than basic strategy dictates? Is there any validity to this?

I agree with you, but many will not as they (others) believe in EV only and not winning probabilities
everyone plays forever (hahaha)

one can do the math and
many will not believe the math,
so,
you are really left on your own to do and think as you like
that is nice
see,
nice

as with your beliefs about how often one is to win a double down hand (it is all over the internet)
11 vs 6
you are really left on your own to do and think as you like

Sally

ps
<hint> <HINT>
when coming up with betting system ideas, just list every possible outcome that can be and go from there.
one will always arrive at an answer
remember to check your work

that is nice

Quote: AxelWolf

Damm it,

that is not nice, imo, the swearing

Quote: AxelWolf

I thought you were busy with football, <snip> <snip>

I thought he was busy with his wife

Quote: AxelWolf

PS. Sally is not nice

Sally is nice more times than not is nice

Quote: AxelWolf

to poor innocent Djatc.

hahahahaha

he is NEITHER "poor" nor "innocent"

and still, imo, not even a professional gambler

Sally

thats a positive progression with a reset back to the base unit on any loss

COOL STORY BRO

but hey a positive progression is better than a negative progression

Quote: richbailey86

thats a positive progression with a reset back to the base unit on any loss

COOL STORY BRO

check check

Quote: richbailey86

but hey
a positive progression is better than a negative progression

really?
can you prove it?

and in what way too

doubling bankrolls maybe?
or maybe not

how about your positive progression vs my negative progression
set the rules
see the results

Sally is nice

here is the way of it. when you use a positive progression there are no streaks, and when you use a negative progression the streaks are endless.

the law of the universe.

gambling for a bit now all progressions will fail in the long run minus the lucky streaks

but wouldnt you agree a positive progression is safer?

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Omaha

Thank you Gandler For the suggestion. I like the trop software a lot.
My system seems to be working here too.. Up 1k (not real money) in 30 mins..

Once you start playing for real money record your sessions and post them on YouTube. It will be a blast to watch.

It's funny how every system works well until you start betting real money. Gambling Gods must be up to something funny. They invented Murphy's law.

I played a couple different free games while learning BS, always betting 20,10,40,20,80,40..... always came out on top, without fail. If the decks aren't rich in these free games, I would be extremely surprised.

Quote: Omaha

In other words, I bet $500 but I only risked 25 bucks because I presses my bets, why not be happy with a considerable win when I have the chance and not risk more when I have a significant win already?

If you bet $500, you are risking $500.

Quote: mustangsally

100 million AP VPers play 25cent FPQW for

That would be fine and dandy if Dj played .25 FPWD

When he came here that may have been is intentions.

Soon after I meet him, he had learned better, He no longer wastes much time on such a silly sally game.

After some coaching he was able to jump right into a .25 Joker poker kings or better 20,7,5 wit 2 x royals.

For augment sake ill say 750 and per hr @ +2.74%

$25.71 Per hr

7 hrs a day on average, 6 days a week = 1079.82

since he ordered now.

he received 2x-4x points for cash back and comps good for anything in the casino. free rooms and host comped meals (ever changing don't want to even guess)
You may have needed the spa and Beauty salon they offered.

And some lucky winner (HIM) won MANY daily earned slot tournaments. A possible $150 a week in value.

Let's not forget the weekly drawings adding at least $125 a week in value

Oh but wait, there's More!!!

Weekly offers in free play $25 to $75 a week

and just when you think you had enough.

They added in monthly slot, and table games tournaments.

Weekly hot seats

free show tickets

I will round down and underestimate, to many unknowns.

I know sally does not like to round up or down or estimate. She wants her math perfect, because she can. Oh and especially since when her husband does allow her to play, she probably plays very small advantages or -EV games( bad sally), When you admit, its no loner entertainment to play crappie craps(your go to game). And When the fun stops, I picked up a brochure with a number on it, just for you.

Over 30k on just one play for 6 months of this from Djatc seems like "darn" good AP "IMO"

Quote: richbailey86

here is the way of it. when you use a positive progression there are no streaks, and when you use a negative progression the streaks are endless.

the law of the universe.

Wisest thing I have read ever