I challenge you to debunk my betting system
$25, $50, $100, $200, $400, $500, $500, $500....
Start back at $25 after any loss or surrender.
The $500 bet is repeated until any loss.
8 decks, stand on soft 17
Stick to basic strategy, late surrender with hard 16 against a 10.
Double after split.
I've turned $1000 into $5000+ quickly several times, and lost a buyin slowly and rarely.
As I've read that all systems are flawed, please debunk.
Thank you.
Is a horrible idea. Obviously online casinos have an incentive to gaff fun money play.Quote: OmahaI'll get right to it. Practicing online for fun
Your system will eventually fail for real money. No need to believe me. Sell everything you have and move to real money.
Send videos of you making it rain in Vegas at all the strip clubs.
Quote: OmahaI'm asking for an explanation of why it will fail
Any sequence of bets that doesn't hit $500 loses you your $25 stake. These happen quite often in blackjack. As your expectation on every bet is negative, your overall expectation is negative.
Hi, long time lurker, I love this site and the Wizard bla, bla, bla, I know betting systems fail but.........
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amazing It got changed up with.....
"Ill get right to it."
As a new member of a site how do they know what thread to post in? My first post was probably in my own PM
OOPS, I outed another tell. The next opening line will be.
General Discussion: I'm a new member so I'm not sure where I should post this bla, bla, bla.
Any new member shouldn't have any clue what the hell I'm talking about.
Quote:Any sequence of bets that doesn't hit $500 loses you your $25 stake.
Not necessarily, as a blackjack along the way or a win on any double or split will atleast recoup the original $25 stake. Also when say I win 6 hands or more and win atleast $800, doesn't that recoup many if not all the small $25 losses?
Quote: AxelWolfIs a horrible idea. Obviously online casinos have an incentive to gaff fun money play
That may be true for unregulated casinos. But in NJ, instate online casinos have to offer free versions of the game with the same rules and probability as when you play with real money so that you can get a feel for the game first.
And you can play NJ casinos online with free money from anywhere, but you can't wager real money unless you are confirmed instate boundries. So if you want a good online casino to practice on I would try NJ online casinos. I personally enjoy Tropicana for testing games online because they have a nice really interface, and offee variety of rules for games (including single zero roulette with surrender), unlike some which are annoying and hard to find the buttons.
Very good point.Quote: GandlerThat may be true for unregulated casinos. But in NJ, instate online casinos have to offer free versions of the game with the same rules and probability as when you play with real money so that you can get a feel for the game first.
I think you're a legitimate new system bettor.
However, I don't think your system will work.
what new players bonus do they offer?
No wonder you made some sense and a good point.
My system seems to be working here too.. Up 1k (not real money) in 30 mins..
Once you start playing for real money record your sessions and post them on YouTube. It will be a blast to watch.Quote: OmahaThank you Gandler For the suggestion. I like the trop software a lot.
My system seems to be working here too.. Up 1k (not real money) in 30 mins..
It's funny how every system works well until you start betting real money. Gambling Gods must be up to something funny. They invented Murphy's law.
+1Quote: AxelWolfIt will be a blast to watch
I will never understand these guys who (supposedly) have rock solid betting systems. They have two choices: (1) Go to the casino and make a ton of money, or (2) argue with people over the internet.
Why do they always choose the latter? lol...
Quote: OmahaI'll get right to it. Practicing online for fun I turn huge profits and small losses. In the casino I win big and rarely lose and it's small.
$25, $50, $100, $200, $400, $500, $500, $500....
Start back at $25 after any loss or surrender.
The $500 bet is repeated until any loss.
8 decks, stand on soft 17
Stick to basic strategy, late surrender with hard 16 against a 10.
Double after split.
I've turned $1000 into $5000+ quickly several times, and lost a buyin slowly and rarely.
As I've read that all systems are flawed, please debunk.
Thank you.
Welcome to the forum, Omaha. I thought you might be from Nebraska but I see in another post that you play in my home state of Connecticut. Yes, I know Omaha is a type of poker.
I don't doubt your success thus far but the house edge will eventually win out. Do you keep records of your casino play? Can you estimate how many hours you have played? I'm not sure if you're playing perfect basic strategy. If you are not, you are increasing the house edge against you. I could use a few pages to debunk your system and get you on the right path but I'd like to suggest that you search the forum first. It's all there elegantly expressed by some of our most knowledgeable members.
If you are playing in Connecticut you are not playing 8 deck S17 as those rules do not exist at either casino.
Quote: OmahaPracticing online for fun I turn huge profits and small losses. In the casino I win big and rarely lose and it's small.
In online practice pits, you are at a Positive Expectation Teaser Game; In the casino you are at a slight negative expectation game but so far appear to have been lucky.
WHERE are offered surrender and late surrender?
Stand on soft 17 is getting harder and harder to find.
>As I've read that all systems are flawed, please debunk.
Systems are always based on there being some spin of the wheel that is in the player's favor. None are. Not ever.
If you want a real test, get out some decks and chips and deal a game to yourself.
Its so easy and no suspect odds from a teaser game.
Quote: OmahaI'll get right to it. Practicing online for fun I turn huge profits and small losses. In the casino I win big and rarely lose and it's small.
$25, $50, $100, $200, $400, $500, $500, $500....
Start back at $25 after any loss or surrender.
The $500 bet is repeated until any loss.
8 decks, stand on soft 17
Stick to basic strategy, late surrender with hard 16 against a 10.
Double after split.
I've turned $1000 into $5000+ quickly several times, and lost a buyin slowly and rarely.
As I've read that all systems are flawed, please debunk.
Thank you.
Why no press to $1000? Why no play on a second spot? When do you quit? Is there a win/loss limit to your system?
Quote: AxelWolfI love it , since I posted about the famous "new" member system bettors opening line.
Hi, long time lurker, I love this site and the Wizard bla, bla, bla, I know betting systems fail but.........
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amazing It got changed up with.....
"Ill get right to it."
As a new member of a site how do they know what thread to post in? My first post was probably in my own PM
OOPS, I outed another tell. The next opening line will be.
General Discussion: I'm a new member so I'm not sure where I should post this bla, bla, bla.
Any new member shouldn't have any clue what the hell I'm talking about.
For fun, I am going to start creating new accounts here on the forum where my first post is always about my successful betting system. I am then going to take bets on the O/U for how many times I have to do this before Axel's head explodes. Let's start the wagering at 5. Who's got the under?
Hehe... Does it actually need to splatter? What if his eyes just start bleeding?Quote: FunkyDoctorFor fun, I am going to start creating new accounts here on the forum where my first post is always about my successful betting system. I am then going to take bets on the O/U for how many times I have to do this before Axel's head explodes. Let's start the wagering at 5. Who's got the under?
Quote: Omaha8 decks, stand on soft 17
Stick to basic strategy, late surrender with hard 16 against a 10.
Double after split.
A few questions:
1. Are there any other surrender rules being applied or just that one?
2. If you split, and one hand wins and the other loses (or one wins and the other is surrendered), do you restart at $25?
3. If you push, and your bet is less than $500, do you repeat the bet, or increase it?
4. At what points (high and low) do you stop?
Quote: GWAENot every new poster that thinks they created marty is trolling. 20 years ago when I played BJ for the first time I also did a marty. Actually I thought I invented it and had the greatest thing ever. It was many many years later when I started reading online that I realized I was an idiot. Luckily there were no casinos with BJ anywhere near me. I either had to go to Vegas, AC, or Canada. I did go a few times and luckily was always on the right side of variance.
I got a chuckle here. I thought I invented di. lol
Quote: OmahaI'll get right to it. Practicing online for fun I turn huge profits and small losses. In the casino I win big and rarely lose and it's small.
$25, $50, $100, $200, $400, $500, $500, $500....
Start back at $25 after any loss or surrender.
The $500 bet is repeated until any loss.
8 decks, stand on soft 17
Stick to basic strategy, late surrender with hard 16 against a 10.
Double after split.
I've turned $1000 into $5000+ quickly several times, and lost a buyin slowly and rarely.
As I've read that all systems are flawed, please debunk.
Thank you.
Omaha, please don't bet your real money until you know your odd of going br0ke on your double-up-betting system.
Here are the loss-in-the-row-info for the game of blackjack (see the picture below for details), which is a near 50%-chance of win or loss.
75%- 50%- 25%- <1%
Expected- Expected- Expected- Expected-
to- to- to- to-
Lose- Lose- Lose- Lose-
in- in- in- in-
the row the row the row the row
7 9 11 15
Thanks goodness for Google for finding this chart of "going br0ke".
Quote: AxelWolfGandler, sorry I thought you were the OP, my cell cuts off the view of the names sometimes in magnification mode.
No wonder you made some sense and a good point.
It's all good.
But to answer your previous question:Trop offers 10 bucks just for signing up and various lost rebates (I forget the rates and such but on their site check their site on the offers section or something like that, I'm on phone right now and can't see). And sometimes they have special additional deals like 10% loss rebates on certain weekends etc...
But speaking strictly for incentives, Trop is not the best, some offer 100% deposit match instantly deposited up to 600 dollars (when I joined trop they only offered up to 50 but I joined when they first opened so it may be better now for new customers). But I like the Trop for the games, great rules on all of their games, and I could be wrong, but I think they are the only NJ site to feature online baccarat. Now if they just made a online poker section, they would be perfect.
Quote:A few questions:
1. Are there any other surrender rules being applied or just that one?
2. If you split, and one hand wins and the other loses (or one wins and the other is surrendered), do you restart at $25?
3. If you push, and your bet is less than $500, do you repeat the bet, or increase it?
4. At what points (high and low) do you stop?
1. When the bet is $400 or $500 i will surrender a 15 against a 9 or 10, and a 16 against a 9
2. If the overall hand is a push, i will repeat the same bet in the sequence.
3. Repeat
4. I stop if I lose $1500. When I get to $5000, I move to a black table and sequence goes $100, $200, $400, $800, $1600, $2500, $2500, $2500... etc...
I call it a day when i get back down to around $3,000, or cash at $20,000.
Quote: 1BB
If you are playing in Connecticut you are not playing 8 deck S17 as those rules do not exist at either casino.
You are correct. It is 6 deck stand on soft 17 and late surrender is offered on all tables. On the wizard of odds blackjack simulator I had it set at 8 decks.
Quote: OmahaIm going to Mohegen in a few hours, as I have had success the last two weekends. I will not gamble online.
Please post as detailed results as possible.
Quote: GWAE20 years ago when I played BJ for the first time I also did a marty.
Almost 40 yrs ago somebody showed me the Marty idea. I was stunned and couldn't debunk it , the main reason being I considered the "double or nothing" bet in private betting to be a sucker bet. And here you could force the casino to accept them; seemed brilliant.
You couldnt just go on the internet back then to debunk things either.
I am glad to say I didn't make myself a victim of it; on the other hand, I figured out right away I didnt have the funds.
Quote: OmahaYou are correct. It is 6 deck stand on soft 17 and late surrender is offered on all tables. On the wizard of odds blackjack simulator I had it set at 8 decks.
Foxwoods' high limit rooms have the same rules at $50 minimums and up depending on traffic. The main floors are all 8 deck H17.
So far so good. Up 1600 after 4 hours.
Only got blackjack twice and the dealer got it over a dozen times.
I should be up another 400 but choked when I should have doubled a 9 into dealers 4.
Taking a break .
Quote: OmahaI'm asking for an explanation of why it will fail
It will fail because:
E[X] + E[Y] = E[X+Y]
That is all. Dr. D out.
Quote: Omaha
So far so good. Up 1600 after 4 hours.
Only got blackjack twice and the dealer got it over a dozen times.
I should be up another 400 but choked when I should have doubled a 9 into dealers 4.
Taking a break .
Enjoy it while it lasts.
And baulking at what BS tells you, tells me that you are doomed to lose faster and sooner.
Quote: Omaha
$25, $50, $100, $200, $400, $500, $500, $500....
Start back at $25 after any loss or surrender.
The $500 bet is repeated until any loss.
I really cannot be ar5ed explaining why it will fail in terms that you will value. Please continue to do this in practice. You will get your own proof soon enough.
Quote: OmahaI'll get right to it. Practicing online for fun I turn huge profits and small losses. In the casino I win big and rarely lose and it's small.
$25, $50, $100, $200, $400, $500, $500, $500....
Start back at $25 after any loss or surrender.
The $500 bet is repeated until any loss.
8 decks, stand on soft 17
Stick to basic strategy, late surrender with hard 16 against a 10.
Double after split.
I've turned $1000 into $5000+ quickly several times, and lost a buyin slowly and rarely.
As I've read that all systems are flawed, please debunk.
Thank you.
Debunking:
Use Wizard's Blackjack appendix 4 that shows the result of a hand and the probability of winning n units for a hand using perfect strategy and 6 decks.
"•Six decks
•Dealer stands on soft 17
•Double on any first two cards
•Double after split allowed
•Late surrender allowed
•Resplit aces allowed
•Player may resplit to four hands"
Set goals of double your money (end with $2,000) or lose it all (end with <$25), using the bet progression that you illustrated. Plug it into excel using the random number generator and generate a bunch of results, based on 1,000,000 hands. Well, there was a total of 13,649 sessions, with a average loss of .00395% (this ensures accuracy and tells me that my results are close to Mike's HA of .00290361).
You busted out 7,635 times and hit $2,000 6,014 times for a net loss of $1,631,000.
So, let's try the "turn into $5,000" quickly and rejig the stimulator.
There was a total of 4,112 sessions. You busted out 3,363 times (lose $3,363,000) and won 749 times (win $2,996,000) for a net loss of only $367,000.
This is due to E[x] + E[y] = E[x+y] and there is absolutely nothing you can do (unless you are counting cards or cheating) to get around that fact.
So yeah, I call bullshit.
Please send your check or money order to Boymimbo Enterprises at the Revel Casino.
Thank you, and good night.
Quote: GWAENot every new poster that thinks they created marty is trolling. 20 years ago when I played BJ for the first time I also did a marty. Actually I thought I invented it and had the greatest thing ever. It was many many years later when I started reading online that I realized I was an idiot. Luckily there were no casinos with BJ anywhere near me. I either had to go to Vegas, AC, or Canada. I did go a few times and luckily was always on the right side of variance.
Yeah you definitely lucked out to an extent. Your story is a good example why people think Martingale betting systems work. Because most of the time they do win for a SMALL amount! But when they don't, they hemorrhage money for a GIGANTIC amount!!!! And that GIGANTIC amount will typically outweigh the sum of all their small wins.
Boymimbo backed the general statement above with simulation data.
#1] a system that has you doubling your bets on the prompt that you just lost a bet - the Martingale
#2] a system that has you doubling your bets on a different prompt, such as when a good looking cocktail waitress walks by.
OP was successfulQuote: boymimboSet goals of double your money (end with $2,000) or lose it all (end with <$25), using the bet progression that you illustrated.
You busted out 7,635 times and hit $2,000 6,014 times for a net loss of $1,631,000.
6,014 / 6,014+7,635 = 44.061836%
of course success to double >0
my matrix calculation method shows success =44.028322% (this does over-shoot the target too, so this value could be increased)
of course, one could double a bankroll at Roulette with probabilities of 18/38 or 18/37 or at other games at around 49.3% instead of just a poor 44%
buts
may not have as much fun doing it!
okay you do that andQuote: boymimboSo, let's try the "turn into $5,000" quickly and rejig the stimulator.
I change one value in my matrix.
Eye ready
OP was successfulQuote: boymimboThere was a total of 4,112 sessions. You busted out 3,363 times (lose $3,363,000) and won 749 times <snip> <snip>
749 / 4,112 = 18.214981%
me calculations (less than 1/2 second - I blinked) for $1000 to $5000 = 18.717778%
(average number of rounds to target = 278.53, median = 213)
still >0 but less than 1 in 5
or in other words,
the OP gets 1 million believers in this (his?) excellent betting system of BJ play
and they all try to turn 1000 into 5000
well, looks like 182,150 were successful - yea!
Yahoo!!
and the other
817,850 went back to watching TV and eating Skittles $1000 less in their pockets
the VAST and not silent MAJORITY
But what a fun system!
this was fun
system not debunked
but other systems can do better at hitting win goals, in my opinions
remember tooooo, that the probabilities expressed to successful win goal attainments are for a one time event
try turning 1000 into 5000 two times in a row = p*p (0.18*0.18)
still, fun trying!
Sally says so
It is way fun!Quote: djatcI have a lot of respect for you trying this system with real money,
Oh, what just flat bet $25 like the Wizard recommends
not much fun there I seeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
what do you reccommend and please consider the fun factor that all gaming writers never touch.
not at all true.Quote: djatcalthough you'll lose it all eventually.
but thank you for sharing your non-professional opinion
and NOT showing any math
after turning $1000 into $10000
probability >0
one can just not play that BJ any more and will never lose it all, just one example
but I gather you are saying if OP keeps playing, his original bankroll plus all winnings will all be lost.
this is your opinion and have not proven this at all
this is true if you consider all time, playing forever
not true when playing less than forever or for a finite length of time
probability of eventual ruin = 1 as number of hands played -> forever
no one plays forever, so what is the chance of giving it all back in say, 200 attempts?
my opinion <1
Sally
What are the odds of winning doubling with at eleven against a dealers 4, 5, and 6? or any card for that matter? I am wrong to believe they are extremely favorable and I got VERY unlucky?
