drjohnny
drjohnny
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April 19th, 2014 at 4:59:25 AM permalink
Dream (or nightmare) scenario for the baccarat player:
You sit down at a $25 table with a fresh shoe and notice that the previous 5 hands were all player.
You start playing and the next 20 hands continue to be player until a banker finally hits.
How would you bet in real life with a starting bankroll of $1000?
The table limit is $100K.

I would continue riding the player streak until the very end...
1. +$50
2. +$100
3. +$150
4. +$200
5. +$250
6. +$300
7. +$400
8. +$500
9. +$600
10. +$700
11. +$800
12. +$900
13. +$1000
14. +$1100
15. +$1200
16. +$1300
17. +$1400
18. +$1500
19. +$1600
20. +$1700
21. - $1800

Total profit: $13,950

BTW, it's crazy you'd hit the $100K table max by your 8th hand if you kept going all-in on player!
RS
RS
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April 19th, 2014 at 5:10:05 AM permalink
Absolutely fascinating.
geoff
geoff
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April 19th, 2014 at 7:18:32 AM permalink
Quote: drjohnny

Dream (or nightmare) scenario for the baccarat player:
You sit down at a $25 table with a fresh shoe and notice that the previous 5 hands were all player.
You start playing and the next 20 hands continue to be player until a banker finally hits.
How would you bet in real life with a starting bankroll of $1000?
The table limit is $100K.

I would continue riding the player streak until the very end...
1. +$50
2. +$100
3. +$150
4. +$200
5. +$250
6. +$300
7. +$400
8. +$500
9. +$600
10. +$700
11. +$800
12. +$900
13. +$1000
14. +$1100
15. +$1200
16. +$1300
17. +$1400
18. +$1500
19. +$1600
20. +$1700
21. - $1800

Total profit: $13,950

BTW, it's crazy you'd hit the $100K table max by your 8th hand if you kept going all-in on player!



If you know that the next 20 hands are going to be player why aren't you betting table max on that?
Natural9
Natural9
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April 19th, 2014 at 8:04:30 AM permalink
Quote: geoff


If you know that the next 20 hands are going to be player why aren't you betting table max on that?

LOL
drjohnny
drjohnny
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April 19th, 2014 at 11:20:20 AM permalink
Quote: geoff

If you know that the next 20 hands are going to be player why aren't you betting table max on that?



Most people don't have $100K cash on hand when they start playing.

It would be interesting to see how many people would use "optimal strategy" and bet banker every hand until eventually going broke.

I've seen a plethora of gamblers fight a streak and as a result get cleaned out within minutes... myself included. :(
Mikey75
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April 19th, 2014 at 12:13:54 PM permalink
This is the kind of streak that I dream about lol. Here is how I would play it.

1. $25
2. $50 parlay
3. $100 rack $100
4. $100
5 $200 parlay
6. $400 rack $400
7. $400
8. $800 parlay
9. $1600 rack $1600
10. $1600
11. $3200 parlay
12. $6400 rack $6400
13. $6400
14. $12,800 parlay
15. $25,600 rack $25,600
16. $25,600
17. $51,200 rack $51,200
18. 51,200
19. $100,00 rack $100,00
20.$100,00 rack $100,00
21. Lose $100,00

$284,00 profit.
I doubt I ever see 20 in a row but if I do I'll walk away from that session with a memorable win.
drjohnny
drjohnny
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April 19th, 2014 at 12:45:51 PM permalink
I'm pretty sure I've spent under 1,000 hours at the bacc tables during my lifetime, yet I've already seen both the banker and player streak at least 20 hands in a row (with some ties thrown in).

I once asked a dealer what was the longest streak he's seen and he told me he's dealt a shoe with ~35 consecutive bankers. He also dealt another shoe with ~35 consecutive players. I'd give up a kidney if I could go back in time to play those 2 shoes!
DeMango
DeMango
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April 19th, 2014 at 1:02:28 PM permalink
The Lyle Stuart "Rule of Three" works very well under these occasions.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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April 19th, 2014 at 1:09:10 PM permalink
Quote: drjohnny

I'm pretty sure I've spent under 1,000 hours at the bacc tables during my lifetime, yet I've already seen both the banker and player streak at least 20 hands in a row (with some ties thrown in).



That seems pretty unlikely

Quote:

I once asked a dealer what was the longest streak he's seen and he told me he's dealt a shoe with ~35 consecutive bankers. He also dealt another shoe with ~35 consecutive players. I'd give up a kidney if I could go back in time to play those 2 shoes!



And so does that.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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April 19th, 2014 at 5:22:03 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

That seems pretty unlikely



And so does that.

What are you taking about Axiom? How is this unlikely when people have magic leprechauns with them?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
drjohnny
drjohnny
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April 19th, 2014 at 5:43:27 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

That seems pretty unlikely.



Just a couple days ago I played a crazy shoe... the scoreboard had something like 16 bankers vs 4 players when I colored up and left. It's unfortunate I kept most of my bets $50-100 during that amazing run and never bet more than $200.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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April 19th, 2014 at 5:52:45 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Mikey75
Mikey75
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April 19th, 2014 at 7:05:00 PM permalink
Quote: DeMango

The Lyle Stuart "Rule of Three" works very well under these occasions.



I begin playing, parlaying a winning bet three times, when I began to see lots of streaks in Baccarat. I've never heard of Lyle Stuart. I did a quick google search and it returned nothing. Do you have any links about his "Rule of Three"?
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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April 19th, 2014 at 7:12:49 PM permalink
Quote: drjohnny

Just a couple days ago I played a crazy shoe... the scoreboard had something like 16 bankers vs 4 players when I colored up and left. It's unfortunate I kept most of my bets $50-100 during that amazing run and never bet more than $200.

picture or it didn't happen
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
sodawater
sodawater
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April 19th, 2014 at 7:15:57 PM permalink
why would player winning 5 hands in a row make it more likely to win the next hand?
Stats
Stats
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April 19th, 2014 at 7:28:11 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

picture or it didn't happen



I have seen way more extreme differences than that, from memory the highest was 35 bankers to 11 player wins before settling back down.
drjohnny
drjohnny
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April 19th, 2014 at 7:32:10 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

why would player winning 5 hands in a row make it more likely to win the next hand?



I know it doesn't according to the math, but riding trends makes the game more fun than just betting the minimum on banker every hand.

The only way I can win over a grand in this damn game is by bumping up my bets during long streaks or chops.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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April 19th, 2014 at 8:34:48 PM permalink
Quote: Stats

I have seen way more extreme differences than that, from memory the highest was 35 bankers to 11 player wins before settling back down.

PIC or it didn't happen.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Stats
Stats
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April 19th, 2014 at 9:47:28 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

PIC or it didn't happen.



Lol
Deucekies
Deucekies
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April 19th, 2014 at 10:33:24 PM permalink
I usually use 3-5-8 progression. Not because I think it's a better system than any other, just because I like it.
($25 units)
1. $75
2. $125
3. $200
($100 units)
4. $300
5. $500
6. $800
($400 units)
7. $1200
8. $2000
($1000 units)
9. $3000
10. $5000
11. $8000
($4000 units)
12. $12000
13. $20000
($10,000 units)
14. $30000
15. $50000
16. $80000
($40,000 units)
17. $100,000 (Or $60,000 on two spots if allowed)
18. $100,000 (Or $100,000 on two spots if allowed)
($100,000 units)
19. $100,000 (Or $100,000 on three spots if allowed)
20. $100,000 (Or $100,000 on five spots if allowed)
21. $-100,000 (Or $-100,000 on eight spots if allowed)

So if allowed only one spot: $513,200 profit
If allowed two spots: $733,200 profit
If allowed three spots: $833,200 profit
If allowed the whole table: $533,200 profit
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
Dracula
Dracula
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April 19th, 2014 at 10:38:09 PM permalink
I would have made $999999999999999999999947 units
Deucekies
Deucekies
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April 19th, 2014 at 10:38:26 PM permalink
I suppose technically this would be proper use of 3-5-8:
($25 units)
1. $75
2. $125
3. $200
($50 units)
4. $150
5. $250
6. $400
($75 units)
7. $225
8. $375
9. $600
($100 units)
10. $300
11. $500
12. $800
($125 units)
13. $375
14. $625
15. $1000
($150 units)
16. $450
17. $750
18. $1200
($175 units)
19. $525
20. $875
21. $-1400

But what fun is that?
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
michael99000
michael99000
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April 19th, 2014 at 10:58:14 PM permalink
I'm currently working on what my strategy would be if I knew I was gonna win the next 20 blackjack hands in a row...

I'll start a new thread disclosing that info once I have all the details hammered out.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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April 20th, 2014 at 3:47:58 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000

I'm currently working on what my strategy would be if I knew I was gonna win the next 20 blackjack hands in a row...

I'll start a new thread disclosing that info once I have all the details hammered out.

??????? you need to work on that and start a new thread?

Amusing no heat........... As much as you have or you can get. Table max every time. What am I missing?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Tanko
Tanko
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April 20th, 2014 at 3:50:30 AM permalink
Quote: drjohnny

I'm pretty sure I've spent under 1,000 hours at the bacc tables during my lifetime, yet I've already seen both the banker and player streak at least 20 hands in a row (with some ties thrown in).



I saw 20 consecutive Banker's last year.

Friends tell me they've seen longer for both Banker and Player, but I only believe what I see.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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April 20th, 2014 at 4:12:12 AM permalink
Quote: Tanko

I saw 20 consecutive Banker's last year.

Friends tell me they've seen longer for both Banker and Player, but I only believe what I see.

Really as you played or watched? or you seen it on a score board?

I only believe reputable people. Even then, I have seen them make mistakes, reputable people have seen aliens as well.

I have heard score boards malfunction and display strange things. I would never believe anyone touting betting systems of any kind. I bet if someone gave out a prize for anyone proving 20 coin flip type LIVE casino events (like 20 blackjack wins or losses in a row playing correctly) no one would ever win the prize.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
DeMango
DeMango
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April 20th, 2014 at 5:36:42 AM permalink
Quote: Mikey75

I begin playing, parlaying a winning bet three times, when I began to see lots of streaks in Baccarat. I've never heard of Lyle Stuart. I did a quick google search and it returned nothing. Do you have any links about his "Rule of Three"?



Do an Amazon search!

Lyle Stuart on Baccarat by Lyle Stuart (Jan 1, 1997) Simply a great read!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
Mikey75
Mikey75
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April 20th, 2014 at 6:22:04 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Do an Amazon search!

Lyle Stuart on Baccarat by Lyle Stuart (Jan 1, 1997) Simply a great read!



Thanks DeMango
Tanko
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April 20th, 2014 at 6:44:31 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Really as you played or watched? or you seen it on a score board?



Interblock machine dealing real cards at RW.

Heard fifty or more players getting loud.

Went over to check and saw fifteen consecutive Banker wins on the screen.

Watched it go to twenty before a player win ended it.

That was no scoreboard malfunction.

If it was, the casino would have shut down all 700-1,000 Bac seats in House and all Bac tables in the entire State until the bug was resolved.

That is what they did for two weeks when the Shuffle Master e-Craps machine malfunctioned at RW.

Best Player run that I saw was at a Mohegan table. Eleven straight.

Caught ten of those.

Should have played that the OP's way.
Deucekies
Deucekies
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April 20th, 2014 at 3:14:36 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

??????? you need to work on that and start a new thread?

Amusing no heat........... As much as you have or you can get. Table max every time. What am I missing?


A functioning sarcasm detector, I think.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
AxelWolf
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April 20th, 2014 at 3:22:18 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

A functioning sarcasm detector, I think.

No what am I missing?

If you know 100% fact that you are going to win x number of hands in a row then how complex is it? Or was that person being sarcastic when he said, he was going to work on a strategy and make a new thread? If so, it went over my head because I only expect people to try to make something simple complicated.

I would have to re look at who posted that (i didn't pay attention)and then sanity of the person who did so.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Dracula
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April 20th, 2014 at 3:28:20 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

No what am I missing? .



....
Deucekies
Deucekies
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April 20th, 2014 at 4:48:11 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Or was that person being sarcastic when he said, he was going to work on a strategy and make a new thread? If so, it went over my head...


That one.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
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