beatable bonus play (is my maths correct)

If i play at an online casino with a bonus (b) of say 29 x deposit (d), then the gain will be a net profit (NP) of 4.7 x d, on average for the player

also the maximum withdrawal is 1 x the bonus, and the bonus can be redrawn unlimited number of times until you win, (with a normal lag time of 5-8 business days, to receive the funds into neteller or skrill account, and 10-14 business days for wire transfer)

lets say that d = $25 and b = $725

if i wager the full 750 bonus on an event with a 19% 'real chance', and the odds offered are $5.00 for that outcome, then the long-term profit is $117.50 for every $25 deposit, see proof below:

proof NP = 4.7 x d

4.7 x d = NP (% x (b + d)) - d,
NP = (19% x $750) - 25,
NP = 142.5 - 25, = 117.50

therefore NP = $117.50 (per deposit), and is proof that 4.7 x d = NP

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i am making deposits of about 1.25% of betting capital, but please feel free to comment if you think that is too big or small etc

lastly i would like to get a ballpark standard deviation or variance for the above outcome (19% chance), if the chance of the online game is 'fair'


ps assume that once you have increased the bonus funds to 5 x the original bonus, it is then 'safe' to grind out the turnover requirements for the remainder of your play

What is the bonus game and how much do you intend to wager on the bonus? I see that you're planning on wagering a total of $750, but it sounds like you are going to wager $5 at a time.

The $117.50 is not that much for a week or so's work, but $250 is the maximum deposit per account, the bonus is $7500 and the maximum bet is $1000,

nb: assume that the game has a return to player' of 95%

option 1, have upto 7 x $1000 bets^^^ on odds***of $31 for the first bet, $32 for bet two, $33 for bet three etc, and for bet eight change the bet to $500 @ $75, since that is all that is left of the bonus

option 2 have upto 10 x $750 bets^^^ on odds*** of $41 for the first bet, $42 for bet two..., and $50 for bet ten

bets^^^: if you have reached your goal of 5 x initial bonus before the last bet, then switch to 'safe' play by grinding the turnover down on relatively safe bets

odds***: since every bet reduces the turnover requirements by a small amount, the minimum odds will be slightly less than what was stated, for every bet after the first bet

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now lets assume that the combined winning chance of all the bets in option 1 or 2 is still about 19%, then the average gain is $1175 per deposit.

-reply deleted / moved

yeah sorry about the wording, my grammar is not too good

any way the bonus is $750, and you can bet on an outcome that is roughly a 19% chance of happening, at odds of $5.00, so you will bet the full bonus once on a single outcome that pays $5.00, assuming that the game has an average return to player of 95% (19% chance x $5.00 odds)

also the game is Virtual Racebook 3d