Guess soxfan's system
Soxfan's contributions are short bursts of one or two sentences, mixed with fondly remembered slang, punctuated by a distinctive catchphrase.
He's one of the most accomplished gamblers here, but details are sparse, so I thought it might be helpful to speculate.
Soxfan is a pro baccarat player at one Canadian casino, which is not allowed to bar him. His methods are simple, summarized as "It ain't rocket science." He routinely dismisses advantage players as "wiseguys" and "mathites," so we can assume his system does not involve a mathematical edge. His comments also suggest he has no "long run" edge, but he explains that the long run is irrelevant because it's impossible to achieve in anyone's lifetime.
He sits out about two-thirds of all hands dealt at his table. He appears to believe that casino shuffles are non-random, although there's no mention of any exploitability.
If his focus is the "short run," then presumably he would employ money-management strategies such as "quitting while ahead," but I don't see any detail on that. Maybe it's too sensitive to disclose on a public board.
Soxfan respects the possibilities of ESP, so psychic powers may be a factor.
What do you think? What is the secret to soxfan's success?
For reference, below is a selection of relevant quotes, in chronological order. After the first, I edited out the remaining hey heys. Sorry for that.
Quote: soxfanI have been making a fulltime income playing bac for the past several years. My gross profit per sho is lightly under ten units and over time I have won slightly fewer that 49% of my placed bets. It ain't rocket science, baby, hey hey!
I'm well, and still grinding a fulltime income at the bac table. Lots of AP wiseguys on this forum, I must say. I bet some of these cats won't even got to the latrine less they figure they have some kinda "edge."
Firstly, I only play at one casino in the province of ONtario, and here casinos can't ban a cat simply for winning.
Please, a SIMPLE answer will suffice; EXACTLY how many bacarrat decisions do I have to buck up against before hitting the "long run."
I've personally played over 10 000 baccarat shoes in my life and have only seen one shoe with no tie outcomes.
It's good to see the gr88888888888888one goin to war with the ap wiseguys on here, I must say. I'm kinda surprised that the john-O hasn't chimed in, as he is also well ahead at baccarat without any definable "edge", but oh well.
I play bac, fulltime, five days per week, 48 weeks per year, and the income I derive from bac is my only form of active income. But, in a year's worth of fulltime play I only buck up against about 36000 decisions. A mathite once told me the "long run" is about ten million decisons, so I just need to play bac fulltime for about 300 more years before the "long run" catches up to me.
Actually, I play six shoes per session, so 30 shoes per week. I only make real money bets on about 35% of hand dealt. So, I only buck up against a paltry 36000 decisoions and average just under ten untis gross profits, per shoe, and that works for me.
My average profit per shoe is just under ten units, gross profits. And over the years I have put much of my bac winnings into income producing real estate and other vehicles that generate a passive income stream.
I previously posed a question on here but didn'y get answer. So, I ask again, how many hands/shoes of baccarat do I have to buck up against before I hit the "long-run", that will cause me to lose all the profit I've made over the past few years, as well as my intitial starting bankroll? You cats prattle on endlessly about it, so you should be able to define the "long-run" in precise terms, right.
And, of course you have the usual gaggle of genius, know it all, WOV ap wiseguys interjecting as always.
I often buck up against machine shuffled, eight deck shoes and that particular sequence is not at all out of the ordinary. But, I guess if a cat don't actually play the game, much, he might think that sequence unusual.
Well, Odin knows I'm doin something right if I manage to annoy some of the ap wiseguys around here.
So, whay don't bj card counters just Kelly their way to millions in risk and stress free profits.
I'm in a casino to make my nut, period!
Some of you cats on here slay me, for serious.
Yer friend's skill set could make card counting-tacking at the baccarat a VERY VIABLE enterprise. If he is as good as you say, I would be willing to back him.
I was thinking about some of the exotic side-bets on offer, like the super egalite.
If the "long run" consists of miliions, or tens of millions of hands then why worry about it.
Some good bj counters experience prolonged losing periods. Some even bustout a bankroll then have to go into hock to family, friend, credit card, loanshark to raise a new roll and get back in the gmae, hopefully on the positive side of the variance than knocked em outta the box in the first place, despite their edge. Some of these mathites are just plain delusional.
Ap wiseguys and mathites enjoy trying to make others feel stupid, that's their style.
Yup, the axel wolfe is a serious cat with serious trunk space.
A math girly, with a PHD from the University of Toronto told me that the "long run" at games of chance like the baccarat, that resolve to a close to 50-50 state, is ten million decisions. If she is correct then I will never live long enough to see that "long run". But, hey it is nice to see the gr8888888888888one goin to war with the resident ap wiseguys.
Years back I allowed a cat from the old gambling glen to eyeball my baccarats play and it turned out to be a BIG mistake, as the cat turned coconut on me.
Some of these mathites/ap wiseguys are humorless, anal, cynical, and socially inadequate. Little wonder that some of em rarely get out from behind their computer keyboards and sims.
Actually, abilities such as telekinesis, and esp are innate in a certain percentage of the population. Those abilities can be developed given the right amount of time and effort.
For my guess, I would say "bet selection" / "trend spotting" would be what he is about.
Quote: odiousgambitIf someone with such claims keeps a low enough profile, I see no reason to bug them about those claims. Soxfan seems to do that, or have I missed something?
No, I posted everything.
It seemed rather extraordinary to me. How many people on this site are long-time, full-time, pro baccarat players? I haven't noticed any others. Even varmenti acknowledged that he had only been in action for a few months.
Z method Bet#1 Bet#2 Bet#3 Bet#4 Bet#5 Bet#6 Bet#7 Bet#8 Bet#9 Bet#10 Bet#11 Bet#12 Bet#13
Units bet 1____1____2___2____3____4___ 5___ 7___9____12__16___22___29
Loss -1___-2____4___-6___-9___-13__-18__-25__-34__-46__-62__-84__-113
1st Win 1___ 0___ 0___ -2___-3___-5__ -8___-11__-16__-22__-30__-40__-55
Parlay after win 2___ 4___ 2___ 3____3___ 2____ 3___2___2____2____4_____3
People fall into this trap of thinking longevity is a substitute for credibility, without the latter, I seriously doubt there is any substance or credibility in any of it.
Sorry for the formatting, guess you can figure things out
so if he is not varmenti then I am going to guess that he is using multiple types of betting schemes and only makes a wager when the next hand has all of them overlapping. That last sentence makes sense in my head but I don't know how to put it in words.
Quote: GWAEAfter reading those quotes and thinking about it, it just seems like there is a similarity between soxfan and varmenti.
I'm pretty obtuse, but I don't detect much similarity in writing style. Varmenti seems to have dropped out completely -- no more Facebook updates or YouTube videos.
The mention of tie bets reminds me of novicegambler, who I think was the Indian visitor with an incredibly rich father. He had a variety of writing styles. He's not banned, but I vaguely recall some drama from him around the time of the varmenti meltdown. It's hard to keep up.
If you seek to discover the simple, but hidden secrets of baccarat, Ontario is the place, that's apparent.
Quote: GWAEAfter reading those quotes and thinking about it, it just seems like there is a similarity between soxfan and varmenti. Maybe varmenti is soxfan who did post some of his ideas and got killed for it of course. So now we bash varmenti and soxfan can still be anonymous. Or maybe they play at the same casino and know each other?
so if he is not varmenti then I am going to guess that he is using multiple types of betting schemes and only makes a wager when the next hand has all of them overlapping. That last sentence makes sense in my head but I don't know how to put it in words.
I get what you're saying; it's kind of like biometrics, with sine waves all peaking at certain points. When the waves converge, that's when he bets. Not that I know anything about his system, just the point you're making.
Highly unlikely. Not impossible, but.....Quote: GWAEAfter reading those quotes and thinking about it, it just seems like there is a similarity between soxfan and varmenti. Maybe varmenti is soxfan who did post some of his ideas and got killed for it of course. So now we bash varmenti and soxfan can still be anonymous.
That is a possibility, but I choose not to speculate.Quote: GWAEOr maybe they play at the same casino and know each other?
that's some kind of brick wall/voodoo place that
will rob him of winning. He obviously doesn't know
where his edge is coming from, which means he
probably doesn't have one. This means he's using
luck and a progression, nothing new there. If he
really had a legit edge, talking about it on a public
forum that thousands in the industry read would
be the last thing he'd do. If he sits out most of the
hands, he's waiting for a trigger that has worked
more times than not for his progression. You can
remain lucky playing this way for quite awhile but
it has a brick wall built into it, as I'm sure he knows.
That's why he's bragging about it now, before it's
too late.
Quote: gpac1377What do you think? What is the secret to soxfan's success?
His secret is simple. He claims to be a winning player and some gullible people believe him. It ain't rocket science, hey hey.
BULLSHIT !
I mean in josh axelrad can say f*** this and F*** that, surely I can say BS.
Where exactly is that protection guaranteed in the Canadian Constitution, EH ?
Quote: strictlyAPi could be completely wrong but didn't you back him up at some point, or i may be confusing this with another crazy baccarat system player
I hope that this is not directed at me. I would take it as a personal insult if it was! :)
Quote: BuzzardIn a single word, not aimed at any one person because that would be an insult.
BULLSHIT !
I mean in josh axelrad can say f*** this and F*** that, surely I can say BS.
Smells like it to me.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI hope that this is not directed at me. I would take it as a personal insult if it was! :)
Come on Axiom. You know me better than that, I should hope !
Quote: BuzzardCome on Axiom. You know me better than that, I should hope !
I am so confused. (I quoted strictlyAP's post)
Quote: gpac1377
What do you think? What is the secret to soxfan's success?
It's the GMO-free cashews and beer. The ESP thing is just a diversion.
If he can pull what he says he does more power to him.
The only system a cool cat would use is one that rhymes, which is why for SoxFan, I bet his system is the Labouchère, hey hey!
Quote: EvenBobBecause he's obsessed with the long run, he thinks
that's some kind of brick wall/voodoo place that
will rob him of winning. He obviously doesn't know
where his edge is coming from, which means he
probably doesn't have one. This means he's using
luck and a progression, nothing new there. If he
really had a legit edge, talking about it on a public
forum that thousands in the industry read would
be the last thing he'd do. If he sits out most of the
hands, he's waiting for a trigger that has worked
more times than not for his progression. You can
remain lucky playing this way for quite awhile but
it has a brick wall built into it, as I'm sure he knows.
That's why he's bragging about it now, before it's
too late.
I am in somewhat agreement with Bob on this one. That makes three! LOL. Don't really know how soxfan plays or what his approach is so I am not going to comment.
Quote: soxfanYears back I allowed a cat from the old gambling glen to eyeball my baccarats play and it turned out to be a BIG mistake, as the cat turned coconut on me.
Not sure what he meant with that one. Cat turned coconut?
I say it's possible he does have something that puts him in positive EV territory. He hasn't shared it with us though so I think he should be alright with BS alarms going off.
Quote: Mission146An 'e' at the end of a word in the French language takes on an, 'ay,' sound.
That's not true unless the e has an accent on it.
I really shouldn't attempt to speak to the French grammar structure, it's been over twelve years since my last French class...
Quote: Mission146True, please excuse me. I believe the second to last e with the accent and a silent re make the pronunciation of the system, "LA-BOO-SHAY," would you agree with that?
I really shouldn't attempt to speak to the French grammar structure, it's been over twelve years since my last French class...
The accent on the e is downwards, which makes it a short e (accent grave) so it's Lah-boo-shair, with the "r" rolled . If the accent went upwards from left to right, you would be correct. Just sayin'...
At least there is still the D'Alembert, which still ends like, "Hair," just without the rolled r.
Quote: MoosetonNot sure what he meant with that one. Cat turned coconut?
Crazy. Not quite sure how it's derived though.
Coco-"nuts" ? Cuckoo - nuts? Who knows.
Quote: Mission146True, please excuse me. I believe the second to last e with the accent and a silent re make the pronunciation of the system, "LA-BOO-SHAY," would you agree with that?
I really shouldn't attempt to speak to the French grammar structure, it's been over twelve years since my last French class...
http://translate.google.com/#fr/en/labouch%C3%A8re
Click the little "listen" icon in the lower right of the left text box.
Quote: GWAEAfter reading those quotes and thinking about it, it just seems like there is a similarity between soxfan and varmenti. Maybe varmenti is soxfan who did post some of his ideas and got killed for it of course. So now we bash varmenti and soxfan can still be anonymous. Or maybe they play at the same casino and know each other?
so if he is not varmenti then I am going to guess that he is using multiple types of betting schemes and only makes a wager when the next hand has all of them overlapping. That last sentence makes sense in my head but I don't know how to put it in words.
I will say emphatically, that I am not that varmenti cat. I've posted on various gambling forums over the years and I think most will say I'm a laid back cat and a straight shooter. And, I've never posted under any handle, other than the soxfan, hey hey.
He sees to have a sense of humor as well.
Who knows, who is who, around the message board.
Quote: AxelWolfI guess I don't really care If Soxfan can beat baccarat or not, .
Uh oh, could be a job for our newest addition to the
Mod Squad. Soxfan, really?
Quote: EvenBobUh oh, could be a job for our newest addition to the
Mod Squad. Soxfan, really?
If you suspend Axel for every typo you will need another 4 mods to handle the extra workload.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceIf you suspend Axel for every typo you will need another 4 mods to handle the extra workload.
G in not next to N on my keyboard. Its not a typo.
Quote: EvenBobG in not next to N on my keyboard. Its not a typo.
Are you defiantly sure?
Quote: AxelWolfI guess I don't really care If Soxfan can beat baccarat or not, I have not found him to be to pushy about it. he is an interesting character/cat and I have come to like him and his Hey Hey!
He sees to have a sense of humor as well.
Who knows, who is who, around the message board.
Axel, I am stating a simple fact in saying you are the worst misspeller on this board by far, and it's totally out of context with what you said about soxfan to think you meant to write that. Here's your chance: either correct it or own it, your choice.
Quote: AxelWolfI guess I don't really care If Soxfan can beat baccarat or not, I have not found him to be to pushy about it. he is an interesting character/cat and I have come to like him and his Hey Hey!
He sees to have a sense of humor as well.
Who knows, who is who, around the message board.
One word: Spellcheck.
LOL.
Doesn't look like it was intentional.
Sorry Mr. Furley but not everyone is using a keyboard or a computer anymore on the interwebs.You have to add slurs but sometimes people do for whatever reasons. Phones do crazy things we don't notice sometimes. You should have went with wanting to be beachbumbab's first suspension as the wild guess.Quote: EvenBobG in not next to N on my keyboard. Its not a typo.
Quote: beachbumbabsAxel, I am stating a simple fact in saying you are the worst misspeller on this board by far, and it's totally out of context with what you said about soxfan to think you meant to write that. Here's your chance: either correct it or own it, your choice.
Owning it, at least for now.
Edit: I have verified to my satisfaction that Axel misspelled what he wrote without intent to say it. I have edited anywhere it appeared so there was no longer an apparent slur in this thread, and I am unbanning him. Carry on.
Having shared a private forum with this person and were posting of trip reports was expected, during his presence he never did, couldn't! Besides claiming he swore to using some horrendous "Z method" progression were the last winning bet is parlayed. Lack of evidence, proof even an smidgen of substance would suggest that we all should believe this because we read about it on the interent, therefore is definately true.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceHis secret is simple. He claims to be a winning player and some gullible people believe him. It ain't rocket science, hey hey.
Quote: MoosetonNot sure what he meant with that one. Cat turned coconut?
Maybe #11 ?
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=coconut
#11 [from a list] -Anything Completely off the Hook,Chain or Yezzelbar/Meat Rack....Something Straight bananas, Completely Bonkers....Soo Dope it'z ReTarDed....Crazy, Nuts, ILL, Slammin....
Quote: AxelWolfI guess I don't really care If Soxfan can beat baccarat or not, I have not found him to be to pushy about it. he is an interesting character/cat and I have come to like him and his Hey Hey!
He sees to have a sense of humor as well.
Who knows, who is who, around the message board.
Axel, was this the post that you were suspended then reinstated over for or was it edited? I'm confused but that's nothing new.
Quote: 1BBAxel, was this the post that you were suspended then reinstated over for or was it edited? I'm confused but that's nothing new.
That is the correct post. There was a "typo" in the original post that resulted in what is generally considered a very offensive slur. I gave Axel the option of fixing the typo (if it was one) or taking the ban that the slur, if intended, warranted. He got involved in something else and did not get back to it, though he was on the board, so I banned him pending further information. Shortly afterwards, Axel got in touch through another member and asked to be unbanned so he could fix the typo. I unbanned him, he fixed it, I went back and edited the other posts containing the slur so it was not left on the board, and went forward from there. I left the references to the events in the thread so as to edit as little as possible, but it was not acceptable to leave the label in the posts on the board.
