System math question.

Single Deck, liberal rules, close to O HE. Allowed to enter and leave at will. But you can only bet when you have a 3% advantage or higher.

What must the count be ( high level complex system ) to allow you to bet ?

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The rule of thumb is that each +1 True Count is worth +.5% to the player. Hence you would need a TC of about +6 or +7 to bet by that system. Those numbers are essentially never seen in shoes, but you are speaking of single deck. For you to see that in single deck, it really comes down to penetration. If you were halfway through the deck you would need only an estimated +3 RC.

This is assuming a +1/-1 count. If you have a high level count with different values for different cards, you would need to convert this to your purposes. However, if someone is worrying about using high level counts it is well worth the investment for CV, and you can get much better info.

With HiLo it's approximately 6 (every 1 TC is about 0.5% shift in HE), at least for shoe games. If you're using a higher level count, probably between 8-10 TC.


Edited on 3/9/2016 at 1:13am PST for EvenBob! ~RS

Quote: sodawater

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NO FAIR..

Thanks, it's a shoe game but would have to make non-standard payoffs to make it ZERO HE. I am pretty sure +6 would not happen that often in 8 deck shoe. Which Is what I was hoping for. THANKS AGAIN

Quote: Buzzard

Thanks, it's a shoe game but would have to make non-standard payoffs to make it ZERO HE. I am pretty sure +6 would not happen that often in 8 deck shoe. Which Is what I was hoping for. THANKS AGAIN

No prob. If it's 8 decks then the HE is a bit higher than single deck, but the rule from earlier still holds.

Quote: Buzzard

Thanks, it's a shoe game but would have to make non-standard payoffs to make it ZERO HE. I am pretty sure +6 would not happen that often in 8 deck shoe. Which Is what I was hoping for. THANKS AGAIN

You're right. Depending on penetration, let's say 75%, you'll be flat betting about 75% of the time before getting to +1. Plus 6 is a very small percentage of that but I'm not sure of the exact number. This could several shoes of getting ground down by the house edge.

That's why I stated you can play or not play any hand. just wanted to know how safe a game with a disguised 3 % HE would be from a counter going after the BJ component. Game is basic blackjack, penny slots, and video poker all rolled into one very simple table game. Hey, I never claimed to be sane !

Quote: Buzzard

NO FAIR..

sorry i totally misread your question

Ok I thought you were an AP and were looking forward to killing my game.

Quote: Buzzard

Thanks, it's a shoe game but would have to make non-standard payoffs to make it ZERO HE. I am pretty sure +6 would not happen that often in 8 deck shoe. Which Is what I was hoping for. THANKS AGAIN

I think, if you look in Griffin, there is a chart which shows how frequent certain running counts are in certain stub sizes.

Be careful about taking the +1TC = +0.5% too far. It's true up to a point (you are fine up to +6 = 3%) but blackjack is inherently non-linear and when the count gets REALLY high the edge actually starts to drop.

Also with single deck, if you deal deeply enough, there are several strange deck compositions that occasionally come up that can give you a huge edge or a huge disadvantage, even though this is not shown by any counting systems. Again, blackjack is inherently non-linear, so you can't just add up EOR numbers for different cards. It works pretty well when there are lots of cards left, but it falls apart when there are not a lot of cards left.

Obvious example: with only ten-value cards left, your edge is 0% (every hand is a push) but the true count is +52.

I'm not sure exactly what you are considering so I'm not sure if any of this is relevant to you.

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Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Obvious example: with only ten-value cards left, your edge is 0% (every hand is a push) but the true count is +52.

I believe the highest TC possible is +32 (HiLo).


Why would you wait until you had a 3% edge to jump into the game?

Quote: RS

I believe the highest TC possible is +32 (HiLo).


Why would you wait until you had a 3% edge to jump into the game?

I'm pretty sure that the max TC is +52, which is what you get when all cards left are 10s or aces.

For the example I gave:

16 tens and no low cards (or zero-valued cards) left.
Running count = +16 (+20 low cards, - 4 aces)
Number of decks left = 16/52 (16 cards)
True count = 16 / (16/52) = +52