Craps hedge play
Suggestions to make it even better.
I think using WinCraps to simulate casino craps tableQuote: CrapsGeniousWatch this video and let me know what you think.
conditions is a better way to go than using WoO Craps Ver1.
For one, it can record every move made during a session of play. It also can use actual casino dice rolls
instead of ones from the Mersenne twister RNGs.
(WoO Craps V2 is available and odds can be changed if you are handy at code)
WinCraps (for Windows) is Free to have and use unless you want high speed simulations. $10 to $15 cost.
Computer generated dice rolls are fine for playing with RNG dice rolls.
They are not actual casino dice rolls.
I get, using actual casino dice rolls - zumma 35k dice rolls, about 33% chance to double your $300 starting bankroll before ruin.
It did have some BIG wins along the way but required way more than $900 bankroll total.
Just making a $300 place 6 has a 45.5% chance of doubling a $300 bankroll
that can be slightly increased to about 49% by making a smaller bet ($258 to start)
to just hit the win goal and have something left over if first bet is a loss.
maybe I programmed your method wrong. (I have a Christmas cold that will not go away)
You should do this yourself, run good simulations, to know the success and failure rates of any betting method.
That way one knows the temperature and how deep the water really is before going in.
But, you are right about one thing.
If you want action, you will have just that.
maybe fun for some, not for the ones that bust their bankroll at first try (cry) IMO.
I have a friend that plays close this way but uses Lay bets against the 4 or 10 instead of the first DC and no come bets.
added: at around 81 dice rolls (29 min mark)
than you were at the beginning when you were at that level.
seems like you are on tilt here.
No consistency in your betting.
This is very difficult to program into a computer. Bets based from your feelings.
You made a very large Lay odds bet on a no 5 that you said not to be scared to make if
you feel uncomfortable about betting and risking so much. You had increased your bets.
also at this point the table is winning.
15 pass line winners and only 7 lost.
Do you know how much you would be up if you were just a pass and max odds player?
You should know.
so IMO, find out.
at 100 rolls the pass has now won 20 lost 8 and 21 points, 13 point winners.
Is the table still HOT!
You do not sound like it is at this point.
also added:
you also mention no win goal.
around roll 115 you had $1300 in the rail on a HOT table
but will keep playing and find yourself down to 700 a few rolls later.
(How is that pass line with max odds player doing at this point??)
I think most players would give up here. They just gave back a big chunk of their profit and will walk with over $400 profit.
Not bad for less than 2 hours of play.
They will miss what happens next. a quick 7 out and a net win.
$951 in the rail. 122 rolls. (41 min mark)
Now you say
"So that's how it's done. Alright, I'm going to get really crazy here"
I ask WHY?
Oh, because to turn $300 into $4000 you have to get crazy and bet big to win big.
sweet!
so what about that win goal again??
and how did the pass and odds player do at up to this point?
you must find out!
thanks for the video and sharing
Good Luck
Played 3x4x5 Craps at live casino today for more than 3 hrs making profit of $7400 (including $1250.00 5 number firebet and $2500 hedge) using a slightly modified betting style as follows:
1) $25/passline, $5/firebet hedging $6/3 way (2,3,12)
2) $500 don't come w/ no odds yet behind passline bet hedging $25 eleven.
3) If DC goes to (4 or 10) Place the other numbers $75 each and ($90 on 6 or 8) along with max odds behind the established point and $25/come.
4) Down with max odds on each number rolled, replaying $25 come.
5) Hedge any profits placing the DC number at least 50% ($250 place/$500 don't come)
6) If established point is made, make sure to keep all bets working and (hedge with $100 any 7)
7) If DC number is rolled then rebet $500 on DC hedging $100/any 7 and $25/eleven
8) If DC goes to 6 or 8, hedge $50/hard 6 or 8.
For those who want to test out on Wizards site, go here:
https://wizardofodds.com/play/craps/v2/
I think oh no, starting off the new year with another of those well you bet one thing but then you undermine that bet with something contrary and don't take your lumps since you are so "protected" from adverse consequences that you can't lose and can't win either 'cept when you get to a REAL casino with boobs and booze and music and standing up ... then you find you can't win but you can and will lose.Quote: CrapsGeniousWatch this video and let me know what you think.
I can't tell you what I think [tl;dw]
Do indeed get Wincraps, but btw my version got all f-ed up by trying to do extra players [wincraps pro]. Avoid that. Edit: I figured out what I was doing wrong, be advised to do one player only avoids self-created glitches.
you seem to avoid claiming that your ideas beat the House, so, fine, but I'd like to see your argument that hedging is desirable laid out in some kind of mathematical or logical theory.
Quote: CrapsGeniousUPDATE:
Played 3x4x5 Craps at live casino today for more than 3 hrs making profit of $7400 (including $1250.00 5 number firebet and $2500 hedge) using a slightly modified betting style as follows:
1) $25/passline, $5/firebet hedging $6/3 way (2,3,12)
2) $500 don't come w/ no odds yet behind passline bet hedging $25 eleven.
3) If DC goes to (4 or 10) Place the other numbers $75 each and ($90 on 6 or 8) along with max odds behind the established point and $25/come.
4) Down with max odds on each number rolled, replaying $25 come.
5) Hedge any profits placing the DC number at least 50% ($250 place/$500 don't come)
6) If established point is made, make sure to keep all bets working and (hedge with $100 any 7)
7) If DC number is rolled then rebet $500 on DC hedging $100/any 7 and $25/eleven
8) If DC goes to 6 or 8, hedge $50/hard 6 or 8.
For those who want to test out on Wizards site, go here:
https://wizardofodds.com/play/craps/v2/
That is quite a complicated betting paradigm. Nice win, regardless.
Quote: CrapsGenious
Suggestions to make it even better.
$300 PL or DP, if win, let $600 ride, if win, let $1200 ride, if win, let $2400 ride, if win, walk away with $4,800 ($4,500 profits).
Probability for Pass Line: (.4929)^4 = 0.05902490171
It works 5.9% of the time, has a lower Expected Loss (though the actual loss, if it occurs, is probably going to be $300 either way) and is a Hell of a lot quicker.
Anyway, I hope you can get a table to yourself because what took an hour on the WoO game will probably take at least three in the casino with all of the bets that have to move around every roll. In the meantime, win or lose, my Reverse Marty will probably have me out of there inside ten minutes.
Quote: Mission146$300 PL or DP, if win, let $600 ride, if win, let $1200 ride, if win, let $2400 ride, if win, walk away with $4,800 ($4,500 profits).
Probability for Pass Line: (.4929)^4 = 0.05902490171
It works 5.9% of the time, has a lower Expected Loss (though the actual loss, if it occurs, is probably going to be $300 either way) and is a Hell of a lot quicker.
Anyway, I hope you can get a table to yourself because what took an hour on the WoO game will probably take at least three in the casino with all of the bets that have to move around every roll. In the meantime, win or lose, my Reverse Marty will probably have me out of there inside ten minutes.
It's a hell of a lot simpler too.
Actually, if the goal is just to turn it into $4,000, then at that $2,400 level, you could simply bet $1,600 and either walk away with $800 on a loss or try to win three times in a row again. That would be $3,200 after two wins, so $800 to bet, which a loss brings you back to $2,400 and betting $1,600 to do it all over again.
I'm not going to do the scenario Math for all of that because attempting to work a system on Craps is fundamentally ridiculous.
Let's say you walk away at $800 if the $1,600 to get up to $4,000 fails.
Probability for Pass Line: (.4929)^4 = 0.05902490171 ($4,000 with $3,700 Profit)
Probability for Pass Line: (.4929 * .4929 * .4929 * .5071) = 0.0607253554 ($800 with a $500 profit)
5.9% to hit 4k and profit 3.7k and 6.1% to hit 2.4K, drop to $800 and profit $500.
Overall probability of winning: 12%, losing, 88%.
Which agrees with the simple:
(.4929)^3 = 0.119750257 or 11.98%
Because if the condition .4929^3 is satisfied, you can no longer lose the original $300 and will profit at least $500 with that adjustment.
In bold above,That is your opinion. Thanks for sharing that.Quote: Mission146That's how I felt about it.
Actually, if the goal is just to turn it into $4,000, then at that $2,400 level, you could simply bet $1,600 and either walk away with $800 on a loss or try to win three times in a row again. That would be $3,200 after two wins, so $800 to bet, which a loss brings you back to $2,400 and betting $1,600 to do it all over again.
I'm not going to do the scenario Math for all of that because attempting to work a system on Craps is fundamentally ridiculous.
This thread should be moved to Betting Systems
The concept you speak of is called Bold Play and is very easy to do in Excel or with some code in R
Bet what is needed to hit the target goal or everything at each step
sure is fun (and for even money bets gives the highest probability of hitting a win goal.
Math guys have proved it)
Here is R answer
[1] 0.07073196
br = 300 # Starting Bankroll
goal = 4000 # Target bankroll
odds = 1 # Payoff Odds
p = 244/495 # P(win bet)
max_bet = 4000 # Table max
prob = 0
p_fail = 1
count = 0
while ( (br >= 1) & (br < goal) & (count < 1000) ) {
# Compute probability of completing parlay up
bet = min(br,max_bet)
consec = 0
while (br + bet*odds <= goal) {
br = br + bet*odds
consec = consec + 1
bet = min(br,max_bet)
}
p_parlay = p^consec
# Compute probabilty of reaching goal
bets = 0
if (br < goal) {
while ( min(br,max_bet) >= ceiling((goal-br)/odds) ) {
br = br - ceiling((goal-br)/odds)
bets = bets + 1
}
}
p_goal = ifelse(bets, 1-(1-p)^bets, 1)
delta = p_fail*p_parlay*p_goal
prob = prob + delta
p_fail = p_fail*p_parlay*(1-p)^bets
count = count + 1
}
prob # Probability of reaching goal
1/prob
delta
12% is way too high and not the correct answerQuote: Mission146Let's say you walk away at $800 if the $1,600 to get up to $4,000 fails.
Probability for Pass Line: (.4929)^4 = 0.05902490171 ($4,000 with $3,700 Profit)
Probability for Pass Line: (.4929 * .4929 * .4929 * .5071) = 0.0607253554 ($800 with a $500 profit)
5.9% to hit 4k and profit 3.7k and 6.1% to hit 2.4K, drop to $800 and profit $500.
Overall probability of winning: 12%, losing, 88%.
Which agrees with the simple:
(.4929)^3 = 0.119750257 or 11.98%
Because if the condition .4929^3 is satisfied, you can no longer lose the original $300 and will profit at least $500 with that adjustment.
At $800 keep going.
It is possible (prob >0) that one could be stuck in an endless loop
a nice Edgar Allan Poe story
My Excel sheet has the same probability of 0.070731964
Mission IF you do not win at p^4
your next chance to win is at the 7th bet at p^6 * q (sum those two values of 0.059038934 and 0.00727405)
next chance at the 8th bet and so on
that is where your mistake is at for coming up with 12%
But really
no one cares
Actually more than 3 times the OP method but gaining way less in comps. (I still have to double-check my code for his method - maybe no one cares)
OP (CG) does not seem interested at all in running simulations on it.
His second system with the $500 DC will not work with a $300 starting bankroll as shown in the video.
I did figure that one out.
and he still needs to bet big to win big and have the dice roll his way (instead of having his DC picked off each time he makes them)
I like those type craps players.
I think the OP should give the name of the casino, the time he played,
dealers and box names so his big win story can be verified and to ask the dealers how they liked dealing to him.
Good Lucks
Quote: 7crapsI think the OP should give the name of the casino, the time he played,
dealers and box names so his big win story can be verified and to ask the dealers how they liked dealing to him.
Good Lucks
I will keep this in mind on my next visit.
Quote: 7crapsOP (CG) does not seem interested at all in running simulations on it.
His second system with the $500
I would definitely be interested in running a simulation using my updated style.
it being new years last night I could not get a table less than $25 minimum.
...
$25 Table
1) $25/passline, $5/firebet hedging $6/3 way (2,3,12)
2) $500 don't come w/ no odds yet behind passline bet hedging $25 eleven.
3) If DC goes to (4 or 10) Place the other numbers $75 each and ($90 on 6 or 8) along with max odds behind the established point and $25/come.
4) Down with max odds on each number rolled, replaying $25 come.
5) Hedge any profits placing the DC number at least 50% ($250 place/$500 don't come)
6) If established point is made, make sure to keep all bets working and (hedge with $100 any 7)
7) If DC number is rolled then rebet $500 on DC hedging $100/any 7 and $25/eleven
8) If DC goes to 6 or 8, hedge $50/hard 6 or 8.
$5 Table
1) $5/passline, $5/firebet hedging $6/3 way (2,3,12)
2) $100 don't come w/ no odds yet behind passline bet hedging $5 eleven.
3) If DC goes to (4 or 10) Place the other numbers $15 each and ($18 on 6 or 8) along with max odds behind the established point and $5/come.
4) Down with max odds on each number rolled, replaying $5 come.
5) Hedge any profits placing the DC number at least 50% ($50 place/$100 don't come)
6) If established point is made, make sure to keep all bets working and (hedge with $25 any 7)
7) If DC number is rolled then rebet $100 on DC hedging $25/any 7 and $5/eleven
8) If DC goes to 6 or 8, hedge $10/hard 6 or 8.
I don't want to think of this as a betting system but would love to be able to run a simulation to show the longevity of wins/losses over thousands of rolls.
Quote: 7craps
12% is way too high and not the correct answer...
I apologize, but you misunderstood what I meant by 12% in that part of the post.
I meant, when you get up to $2,400 and bet the $1,600, but leave, win or lose on the $1,600 bet. The probability that you will succeed and leave with $4,000 and a profit of $3,700 is 5.9%, the probability that the $1,600 bet will fail and you will leave with $800 ($500 profit) is 6.1% for a combined 12%.
The probability of hitting the 4k if you kept going is what I said I was not going to do at this time in the first part of the post.
The probability of the three consecutive PL wins is almost exactly 12%, which is the only condition that need be satisfied if you are leaving after the $1,600 bet either way.
Quote: Mission146
Let's say you walk away at $800 if the $1,600 to get up to $4,000 fails.
Probability for Pass Line: (.4929)^4 = 0.05902490171 ($4,000 with $3,700 Profit)
Probability for Pass Line: (.4929 * .4929 * .4929 * .5071) = 0.0607253554 ($800 with a $500 profit)
5.9% to hit 4k and profit 3.7k and 6.1% to hit 2.4K, drop to $800 and profit $500.
Overall probability of winning: 12%, losing, 88%.
Which agrees with the simple:
(.4929)^3 = 0.119750257 or 11.98%
Because if the condition .4929^3 is satisfied, you can no longer lose the original $300 and will profit at least $500 with that adjustment.
Got it.Quote: Mission146I apologize, but you misunderstood what I meant by 12% in that part of the post.
back to the OP video title
Best CRAPS Strategy - turn $300 into $4000+
he also posts this
"Watch me employ my strategy to turn $300 into over $4000."
"Best" is the wrong word to use.
It is not best,
not even close
He should have used "A" (A CRAPS Strategy - turn $300 into $4000+)
But the OP may thinks it is Best
After watching the video and seeing he did turn $300 into $1200 at one point "just that quick"
(so did the pass line and max odds bettor - but that appears to not be important)
now he makes $500 DC bets because he is way up.
Well he goes down to $951.
Not a bad win of $651 and way away from $4000
OP in video (41 min)
"I am going to get really crazy"
"I would not normally do this in a casino"
and bets $500 DC with his $951 bankroll
way different from what he has done up to this point
It took to the end of the video and close to 190 rolls for his
$300 to turn into $4000
Great work
OP said: "I would not normally do this in a casino"
But it looks like the only way to turn or
Best CRAPS Strategy - turn $300 into $4000+
just bet big,
hope the Big DC #s do not get picked off and the shooter rolls lots of box numbers.
Time for OP to show how often one should expect to be successful with his
Best CRAPS Strategy - turn $300 into $4000+
I know it is greater than 0% but less than 100%
I figured that one out too
Quote: Mission146$300 PL or DP, if win, let $600 ride, if win, let $1200 ride, if win, let $2400 ride, if win, walk away with $4,800 ($4,500 profits).
Probability for Pass Line: (.4929)^4 = 0.05902490171
It works 5.9% of the time, has a lower Expected Loss (though the actual loss, if it occurs, is probably going to be $300 either way) and is a Hell of a lot quicker.
Anyway, I hope you can get a table to yourself because what took an hour on the WoO game will probably take at least three in the casino with all of the bets that have to move around every roll. In the meantime, win or lose, my Reverse Marty will probably have me out of there inside ten minutes.
geez.. if you're going to do just Pass/Don't pass w/o odds, then play Bacarrat as Banker.
$300 -> 600 -> 1200 -> 2400 -> 4800
minus the 5% banker commission but close enuf
Quote: 100xOddsgeez.. if you're going to do just Pass/Don't pass w/o odds, then play Bacarrat as Banker.
$300 -> 600 -> 1200 -> 2400 -> 4800
minus the 5% banker commission but close enuf
I used to bet like this trying to win 3 parleys in a row at craps, but casino gets the best of me and my bank roll in more than one occasion.
Forget baccarat, that game sucks anyway.
Quote: 100xOddsgeez.. if you're going to do just Pass/Don't pass w/o odds, then play Bacarrat as Banker.
$300 -> 600 -> 1200 -> 2400 -> 4800
minus the 5% banker commission but close enuf
I agree with that, I was just saying if we had to assume the game is Craps.
Odds would also be better, and to get as much of that in Odds as possible, but it would take me forever to mathematically analyze all of the possible sequences of events.
