Does this lower the house edge on Roulette?

Hey everyone, this is my first post here and although I'm not really a big gambler, I am particularly fascinated with Roulette and I thought I'd share my strategy with you. It's basically a sleeper system, but with some guidelines.

This strategy is for European Roulette and assumes that there is an outside bet limit of $250 and a minimum bet of $1 with a bankroll of $2000. It's a grind strategy so you'd never be able to use this strategy in a real casino unless you planned on staying there for a very long time.

Place a $1 chip on each one of the red and black spots and spin the wheel noting the number each time and also noting how often the numbers come up. Using software like Spingold (no I don't work for them) to track the numbers is very helpful for this strategy. Keep doing this until all numbers have come up at least once except for one number. You'll probably lose a few dollars on the zero, but that's the price you pay for having the numbers to go by. Anyway, once you have the one number which hasn't been hit yet then start a betting progression on that number as follows until you get a win:

Bet $ 1 for 35 spins.
Bet $ 2 for 18 spins.
Bet $ 3 for 12 spins.
Bet $ 4 for 9 spins.
Bet $ 5 for 7 spins.
Bet $ 6 for 6 spins.
Bet $ 7 for 5 spins.
Bet $ 8 for 4 spins.
Bet $ 9 for 4 spins.
Bet $ 10 for 4 spins.
Bet $ 11 for 3 spins.
Bet $ 12 for 3 spins.
Bet $ 13 for 3 spins.
Bet $ 14 for 2 spins.
Bet $ 15 for 3 spins.
Bet $ 16 for 2 spins.
Bet $ 17 for 2 spins.
Bet $ 18 for 2 spins.
Bet $ 19 for 2 spins.
Bet $ 20 for 2 spins.
Bet $ 21 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 22 for 2 spins.
Bet $ 23 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 24 for 2 spins.
Bet $ 25 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 26 for 2 spins.
Bet $ 27 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 28 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 29 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 30 for 2 spins.
Bet $ 31 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 32 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 33 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 34 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 35 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 36 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 37 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 38 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 39 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 40 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 41 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 43 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 44 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 45 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 46 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 48 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 49 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 50 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 52 for 1 spins.
Bet $ 53 for 1 spins.

Over 150 spins have gone by and the likelihood of hitting your number is good. The probability of you busting out in the first round of this strategy is about 1.7%, so there's about a 98.3% chance that you'll hit within 150 spins.

Once you hit your number then it's time to move on the the second least hit number in your list of recorded numbers and start the progression from the beginning again with your $1 bet.

After that it's just a matter of always betting the least hit number and working the progression.

Just FYI…

It would take you 216 spins to reach a $244 bet if the table limit is $250. Once you have identified your first sleeper number you'd have to have a bankroll of $8769 in order to reach the table limit in that first round, but your risk of ruin out would be drastically reduced to approximately .2%, that's about a 99.8% chance of winning.

Is my math wrong here? If I took $9000 to an online casino and wrote a program to automate this strategy could I possibly have a 99.8% chance of winning? It seems like this significantly reduces the overall house edge of the game. I'm very curious to know what everyone thinks and I appreciate you taking the time to check this out.

Quote: sleepyeyed

Over 150 spins have gone by and the likelihood of hitting your number is good.

Classic Gamblers Fallacy in all its glory.

No. It does nothing to help you win more on average than flat-betting. And no, I'm not going to bother to do the math. You would expect to lose 2.7% of the total amount wagered betting this, or betting $1 for every spin instead. Betting schemes just adjust the overall distribution of your final results NOT your average result.

Maybe your method would allow you to win a small amount 99.8% of the time (assuming your math is correct; I have no idea), but I pity you if you lose almost $9000 on that 1 in 500 chance of bad luck. And of course, your average result will be losing 2.7% of whatever your total wagers are.

On Roulette there is no way of getting away from the 2.7% HA because the events are all independent outcomes (probability). Doesn't matter what you do, the HA will always be 2.7%.

That can NEVER change!

Quote: sleepyeyed

It would take you 216 spins to reach a $244 bet if the table limit is $250. Once you have identified your first sleeper number you'd have to have a bankroll of $8769 in order to reach the table limit in that first round, but your risk of ruin out would be drastically reduced to approximately .2%, that's about a 99.8% chance of winning.

Is my math wrong here? If I took $9000 to an online casino and wrote a program to automate this strategy could I possibly have a 99.8% chance of winning? It seems like this significantly reduces the overall house edge of the game. I'm very curious to know what everyone thinks and I appreciate you taking the time to check this out.

I agree you are not at all changing the house edge.

Your math looks good
I get
0.0027 = probability of a loss (1 in 372 attempts)
0.9973 = probability of a win

You plan on doing this more than 1 time?
I would guess yes to that.

You have about a 50/50 shot to win more than 256 times in row
0.9973^256
How much can you net win at that point? More than 9G?

I say you are gambling!
Good Luck

First: There's no reason to believe that a cold number is "Due". A cold number is just as likely to remain cold.

Second: It's likely that there will be multiple cold numbers that remain cold so long that you're there all day waiting to find that one number that hasn't hit at all. And while doing that, you've lost a bunch of times when the Zero shows up - unless the Zero is the one that's cold.

Therefore, if you're gonna use your system, you might as well just pick a number and be done with it. When it finally hits, start over. And when you start over, there's no reason to not continue with the same number.

Third: When you finally succeed, how much did you win? Are you really gonna risk thousands to win a few bucks?

Fourth: Sooner or later, your system will cause you to lose that $9,000 bankroll. Then what? Continue to bet at the table maximum hoping to recoup some of your losses? How long are you gonna do that?


In short, it's hard to believe that a 1 in 37 event can go 200 trials without occurring. But think about it. That's not much of a Standard Deviation. Do you really want to be standing at the table when it happens?


Bottom line: You can get "lucky". But you can't win - OR change the house edge.

Quote: EvenBob

Classic Gamblers Fallacy in all its glory.

Bingo.

I believe the reported record for a number not showing is 437 spins. Something like that.......not sure who was counting and why. This system would have me calling a cab every night to get home. The Roulette games in Cincy have slowed to a crawl. Maybe 40 spins an hour if your lucky.

deleted

Quote: sleepyeyed

It seems like this significantly reduces the overall house edge of the game.

a proof the house edge does not change no matter how your betting is structured, I took your betting progression as posted

it covers 162 spins at $1901 total bankroll needed.
prob of a system loss = (36/37)^162 = 0.011812
1 - 0.011812 = 0.988188 = prob of a system win for one attempt

avg win = 19.70587226
(the sumproduct of the probability of a win at each spin and the net $ win)
avg loss = 22.45473542 (0.011812065 * 1901)
ev (expected value) = 19.70587226 - 22.45473542 = -2.748863162
some rounding in the values
you can double-check my math

now we need the total average bet over the system
(the sumproduct of the probability of making the bet at each spin and the $ bet at each spin)
101.707937

house edge = ev / total avg$Bet
-2.748863162 / 101.707937 = -0.027027027

the house edge for single zero Roulette betting one number is -1/37 or -0.027027027

looks like the house edge did not change one bit

This is why the Wizard says
"Not only do betting systems fail to beat casino games with a house advantage, they can’t even dent it."

added:
Now, with an avg $win of 19.70587226 (this looks good)
you would need to win 97 times in a row to cover your first loss of $1901

That probability = 0.988188^97 = 0.3158194
Less than a 1 in 3 shot
(at least not close to 0% but 31.5% is not that good -
one could double the bankroll of $1901 with a probability of 48.6%, close to 50%,
by betting all $1901 on the very next spin on any even money bet)

still is all gambling

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

40 spins per hour would be super fast up here.

In all fairness, the OP did mention online casinos, and even talked about setting up a routine / bot to run the system.

So at least he's got THAT part right....

I appreciate all the insightful responses. In no way was I even thinking of attempting this with real cash, it was just something that I had come up with and I wanted to see what I was missing. Looks like I found out.

I'm more in shock that someone that actually can do the math really thinks this is profitable I honestly get more and more amazed each day- jus yesterday playing Pai gow poker because of a promotion I listened to a dealer tell a customer to bet less on the main wager and more on the side bet since the odds are better to which the floor walked over and agreed - this world is justo going downhill

deleted

If you believe you have an advantage why not bet $1 until you see a number that hasn't hit then start your progression at $10?

Just today I was playing online with live roulette at Smart Live casino recording the spins and number 15 did not show up for 312 spins, every other number showed at least twice. It then showed 5 times in the space of 40 spins. Sleepers can sleep for a very long time.

Quote: nowun

Just today I was playing online with live roulette at Smart Live casino recording the spins and number 15 did not show up for 312 spins, every other number showed at least twice. It then showed 5 times in the space of 40 spins. Sleepers can sleep for a very long time.

A number sleeping for 400 spins is not uncommon. Seen
both zeros sleep for over 300. At the same time.

Quote: EvenBob

A number sleeping for 400 spins is not uncommon. Seen
both zeros sleep for over 300. At the same time.

That is crazy to not see a number for that long. Where I play craps, there is a roulette table just a few steps away and I often notice "0" "28" "2" & "35" comes in quite often. I can never play that game, too crazy with all those chips.

Quote: CrapsGenious

That is crazy to not see a number for that long. Where I play craps, there is a roulette table just a few steps away and I often notice "0" "28" "2" & "35" comes in quite often. I can never play that game, too crazy with all those chips.

You might want to keep checking for that. Might be a biased wheel.

Quote: Lemieux66

You might want to keep checking for that. Might be a biased wheel.

doubtful its that biased.

Quote: AxelWolf

doubtful its that biased.

Lol if he has days to kill it might be worth research. But I can think of no "free" activity I can do I would rather do less in a casino than record roulette spins.

Quote: Lemieux66

Lol if he has days to kill it might be worth research. But I can think of no "free" activity I can do I would rather do less in a casino than record roulette spins.

Note that this is the same guy who "noticed" that some asian lady throws lots of 6s and 8s.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Note that this is the same guy who "noticed" that some asian lady throws lots of 6s and 8s.

Maybe she's a biased woman :)

Quote: sleepyeyed

Hey everyone, this is my first post here and although I'm not really a big gambler, I am particularly fascinated with Roulette and I thought I'd share my strategy with you. It's basically a sleeper system, but with some guidelines.

This strategy is for European Roulette and assumes that there is an outside bet limit of $250 and a minimum bet of $1 with a bankroll of $2000. It's a grind strategy so you'd never be able to use this strategy in a real casino unless you planned on staying there for a very long time.

Place a $1 chip on each one of the red and black spots and spin the wheel noting the number each time and also noting how often the numbers come up. Using software like Spingold (no I don't work for them) to track the numbers is very helpful for this strategy. Keep doing this until all numbers have come up at least once except for one number. You'll probably lose a few dollars on the zero, but that's the price you pay for having the numbers to go by. Anyway, once you have the one number which hasn't been hit yet then start a betting progression on that number as follows until you get a win:

Why waste anything on the zero? Why not just observe the numbers from the sidelines?

Quote:

Over 150 spins have gone by and the likelihood of hitting your number is good. The probability of you busting out in the first round of this strategy is about 1.7%, so there's about a 98.3% chance that you'll hit within 150 spins.

The likelihood of hitting your number is and always remains 1/37. Doesn't matter if you win 983 sessions out of a thousand if the remaining 17 produce losses that wipe out the wins and a whole bunch more. This is a given, since it's an up as you lose strategy.

Quote:

Once you hit your number then it's time to move on the the second least hit number in your list of recorded numbers and start the progression from the beginning again with your $1 bet.

After that it's just a matter of always betting the least hit number and working the progression.

Just FYI…

It would take you 216 spins to reach a $244 bet if the table limit is $250. Once you have identified your first sleeper number you'd have to have a bankroll of $8769 in order to reach the table limit in that first round, but your risk of ruin out would be drastically reduced to approximately .2%, that's about a 99.8% chance of winning.

Is my math wrong here? If I took $9000 to an online casino and wrote a program to automate this strategy could I possibly have a 99.8% chance of winning? It seems like this significantly reduces the overall house edge of the game. I'm very curious to know what everyone thinks and I appreciate you taking the time to check this out.

The only things that reduce the house edge at Roulette are wheel clocking (illegal in jurisdictions that prohibit the use of electronic aids) and very difficult to do visually. These modern wheels are designed to further randomize where the ball lands than the old style wheels.

The only other thing that can reduce the house edge is a defective, non-random, wheel. The chances of actually finding one these days are pretty slim.

Even a single zero wheel with En Prison or Partage gives you a worse deal than line bets at Craps, Baccarat, or Blackjack with perfect basic play.