Alright guys I've been running simulators for weeks now someone help me figure out whats wrong here

First off let me say I don't care if I play for 8 hours and make $2 As long as I'm making money I'm okay with it. There is a casino near by that allows this. I've read that blackjack isn't good to use a martingale on, but this one seems to work somehow. This casino allows the minimum bet of $0.25, and a Max bet of 5,000. If mathematically in my favor I plan on sitting there, and playing .25, and doubling till i hit the $4096 mark. I have to lose 15 times in a row to lose it all. Now I know this isn't impossible, but at the same time my simulators have shown that in the long term (hundreds of thousands of times simulated) I'm end up ahead. I'm willing to put the original $8192, and whatever my sessions earn me I'll put that towards that dollar amount.

What has been happening a lot is I lose 3-6 times in a row then I'll hit a blackjack, double, or split opportunity. Now If I have to double down or split my next bet is only to earn me my $0.25 . I don't double my previous bet in all cases.

Another thing If I were to not start to double my bets until I lost 25 cents back to back would this be more beneficial? so go like this

.25 .25 .50 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2048 4096

You aren't doing hundreds of thousands of replications. Or you have a bug in your code.

Martingale does not work in the long run. Unless you have infinite money and no limits (first places to look for a bug).

Quote: roudy123

First off let me say I don't care if I play for 8 hours and make $2 As long as I'm making money I'm okay with it. There is a casino near by that allows this. I've read that blackjack isn't good to use a martingale on, but this one seems to work somehow. This casino allows the minimum bet of $0.25, and a Max bet of 5,000. If mathematically in my favor I plan on sitting there, and playing .25, and doubling till i hit the $4096 mark. I have to lose 15 times in a row to lose it all. Now I know this isn't impossible, but at the same time my simulators have shown that in the long term (hundreds of thousands of times simulated) I'm end up ahead. I'm willing to put the original $8192, and whatever my sessions earn me I'll put that towards that dollar amount.

What has been happening a lot is I lose 3-6 times in a row then I'll hit a blackjack, double, or split opportunity. Now If I have to double down or split my next bet is only to earn me my $0.25 . I don't double my previous bet in all cases.

Another thing If I were to not start to double my bets until I lost 25 cents back to back would this be more beneficial? so go like this

.25 .25 .50 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2048 4096

so you wont be doubling down or splitting if you lose 1 time?

Quote: roudy123

I've read that blackjack isn't good to use a martingale on, but

but nothing! Martingale is not at any game. Theoretically you can "get even" and then start the Martingale all over again and do it at any game, but at some point you will run up against limits.

Play in a real casino has nothing to do with home practice on a simulator unless that simulator simulates alcohol, perfume, boobs, tobacco smoke and distracting conversations punctuated by loud music.

Quote: FleaStiff

but nothing! Martingale is not at any game. Theoretically you can "get even" and then start the Martingale all over again and do it at any game, but at some point you will run up against limits.

Play in a real casino has nothing to do with home practice on a simulator unless that simulator simulates alcohol, perfume, boobs, tobacco smoke and distracting conversations punctuated by loud music.

How would this stuff affect a system? Hes not counting cards

You've probably got a bug in your code.

Run it as a flat bet simulator over a few million repeats and see if the result gives you approximately house edge for the game.

I'm sorry English isn't my thing I will double or split if necessary . Math is what I'm all about! I'm saying that the doubling & splitting is making my profits rise a whole lot easier. I'm doubling my initial investment before losing it over and over. Even if I start with a loss I gain it back.

The reason this system doesn't work is because the betting limits the casinos put on. This casino allows me to double 15-16 times with the start of a quarter bet. If my simulators are right this is when it starts becoming profitable.

Also I'm very disciplined. I don't let emotions get involved. I'll put a thousand dollar bet out, and play the same as a 25 cent bet. I'm simply playing by simple strategy rules

The reason I feel like this works instead of normal conditions is that I am allowed to double my bet so many times. Normal casinos start at say $5 , and then your maxed out within 10-11 turns. This one is 15-16.

Quote: AxelWolf

How would this stuff affect a system? Hes not counting cards

>Play in a real casino has nothing to do with home practice on a simulator unless that simulator simulates alcohol, perfume, boobs,
>tobacco smoke and distracting conversations punctuated by loud music.

The post seems to be about a simulator that gives him results other than those expected in real life, so its either a real life issue or a simulator issue.

Quote: AxelWolf

How would this stuff affect a system? Hes not counting cards

>Play in a real casino has nothing to do with home practice on a simulator unless that simulator simulates alcohol, perfume, boobs,
>tobacco smoke and distracting conversations punctuated by loud music.

The post seems to be about a simulator that gives him results other than those expected in real life, so its either a real life issue or a simulator issue.

Questions:

When you say "hundreds of thousands of times simulated," what counts as a "time" - each hand? Until you win (or lose the whole $8191.75)? Until you play a certain number of hands?

What do you do after a push - repeat the previous bet?

Could you be a little clearer as to what you do on your next bet if you double (and presumably lose) or split (and (a) win one hand and lose the other, (b) push one and lose the other, or (c) lose both)? If you double and lose, you have to bet more than double on your next bet in order to be able to win 0.25 since your last win. (Example: you lose three hands in a row, so you are down 1.75 and bet 2; you double and lose, so now you are down 5.75 and need to bet 6 instead of 4.)


As for your "revised" system, in case you didn't notice, unless you get a blackjack or win a double or both hands of a split, the only time you are ahead is if you win your first hand - otherwise, when you win, you come out even. For example, if you lose three hands, you are down $1, but your next bet is only $1.

Has anyone actually played practice games at home and see how often a 15 game losing streak appears? I think if he knew that answer he'd change his mind. Also, I expect he would not double down, surrender or split cards. If he doubles or splits and loses, that would throw off the cycle unless he penalizes himself and jumps a bet up. Like a lot of players I tried that when gambling was new to me. It doesn't work, plus you'll have a lot of people watching every hand you play, which can be disruptive. Then you feel like a jerk as they all watch you leave broke after coming to the table with more cash than anyone else.

Quote: roudy123

The reason I feel like this works instead of normal conditions is that I am allowed to double my bet so many times. Normal casinos start at say $5 , and then your maxed out within 10-11 turns. This one is 15-16.

The difference does reduce the chance of "ruin" (losing when a max bet is placed). However, the change is only in frequency, not the certainty of it occurring. Imagining this set up as a coin flip, a given coin would be flipped heads 11 times in a row about once every 2,000 attempts (where an attempt is a new progression which ends after a tail to break the streak). Changing the required streak to 16, makes it once every 64,000 attempts. This does not mean that you will win 63,999 times and then have "the big loss." It means each time there is a chance of ruin, and that chance is about 1 in 64,000.

If a hand takes 1 minute to play and the expected number of hands before ruin is 128,000, you may consider that in your lifetime the "big one" might not hit. But remember, is your time only worth $7.50 per hour?

It is an interesting question. Is the entertainment worth it? Are the comps? The free drinks? I have some work to do, but if I come back to this thread and no one else has thought about it, I will. I wonder what kinds of time scales this plan would take effect with.

[Crucial and important note: BJ is not a coin flip. You have a significantly lower than 50% of winning a given hand, even excluding pushes]

I really appreciate everyone's feedback if I push I repeat my previous bet and at this casino blackjack is on a machine I could probably play about 7-9 hands a minute unless there is special things that happen such as splitting. So I think I could make a decent wage per hour but like I said I'm looking for entertainment and if I can get paid anything to do it it's worth it to me I'm not doing this to get rich I do believe at some point the evil of losing my bankroll will happen but I do think it will be long enough down the road that I wouldn't have to worry about It to much I do have to go to a real table when I surpass the $4 bet mark tho

Also say I lose .25 .50 then on the 1.00 I double and lose now I'm down 2.75 so my next bet is 3 the math does get to be a little challenging when u get in the fast paced environment at the casino but I prepare my next bet ASAP

I was just doing the regular martingale system but I was wondering if it would be beneficial to start .25 .25 for that extra loss so I have to lose 16 times in a row instead or 15 everything I read about the martingale says it doesn't work because u can't double enough times because of the casino limits and this was just a special circumstance where u could potentially get paid say 5-12$ an hour and comps to sit and enjoy yourself!

Quote: roudy123

I really appreciate everyone's feedback if I push I repeat my previous bet and at this casino blackjack is on a machine I could probably play about 7-9 hands a minute unless there is special things that happen such as splitting. So I think I could make a decent wage per hour but like I said I'm looking for entertainment and if I can get paid anything to do it it's worth it to me I'm not doing this to get rich I do believe at some point the evil of losing my bankroll will happen but I do think it will be long enough down the road that I wouldn't have to worry about It to much I do have to go to a real table when I surpass the $4 bet mark tho

Also say I lose .25 .50 then on the 1.00 I double and lose now I'm down 2.75 so my next bet is 3 the math does get to be a little challenging when u get in the fast paced environment at the casino but I prepare my next bet ASAP

I was just doing the regular martingale system but I was wondering if it would be beneficial to start .25 .25 for that extra loss so I have to lose 16 times in a row instead or 15 everything I read about the martingale says it doesn't work because u can't double enough times because of the casino limits and this was just a special circumstance where u could potentially get paid say 5-12$ an hour and comps to sit and enjoy yourself!

a machine lets you bet from.25 to $5000? and you get good full rules? i have see $1 to $1000

I know a dealer who saw a guy martingale from $0.25 to $1,024 on a craps bird game at the old Pioneer Club. Lost it all.

No a machine allows me to start at .25 then after I hit my 8$ bet I would have to move to the table to continue

Quote: roudy123

No a machine allows me to start at .25 then after I hit my 8$ bet I would have to move to the table to continue

This just keeps getting better and better.

I have an idea, Once the table limits are capped just start making sports bets offshore.

I should just wait behind your machine once you get to $8, I will sit down and start my bet at $8 or dose the machine know who was playing?

Why don't you just hang out at the BJ tables and watch for someone to lose 6 or 7 in a row, Waite for him to get up or just pay him for his seat then sit down and make a big bet, or do the cards magically change if you sit down?

I have to switch because the max bet on the machine is $5 so i can only move up to $4 then in order to bet 8$ I have to to to the table with the $5 minimum

roudy123,

The thing is that losing a session of 15 x double betting is averagely 1 time out of 39,724 turns (or 0.00252%). Because this is SO rare, you have to run maybe couple of millions of simulations to get the average. Because if you run 100,000 simulations it might just not happen, though if you run it again and again it might. In the simulations that you lose at least one time, you will be in minus, in simulations that you never lose you will be in plus of course.

If you lose, you will lose 8191.75 in total and to win 8191.75 you need to play more than 39,724 turns, if you're betting 0.25. so the edge stays the same, just the chance that you will lose 1 time out of 15 is extremely low indeed.

Note that there's nothing that special about your casino that allows you 15 double betting.
You could start betting at a casino that allows 0.10 bets and then just move to another casino when you reached the maximum bet of that casino. Since every bet is random and not affected by previous one's, you just need to bet on equal chances.

So using my idea of switching casinos, you can achieve even more than 15 double bets :)
Hope that helps.

Quote: roudy123

I was just doing the regular martingale system but I was wondering if it would be beneficial to start .25 .25 for that extra loss so I have to lose 16 times in a row instead or 15 everything I read about the martingale says it doesn't work because u can't double enough times because of the casino limits and this was just a special circumstance where u could potentially get paid say 5-12$ an hour and comps to sit and enjoy yourself!

if you do .25 .25 then you just need to have two time more turns to make the same win and that means that your chance to get into a losing streak is twice higher (or maybe not exactly twice more turns, but you will need to make more turns and more turns = higher chance of getting into losing streak).

The point is that it will ALWAYS end up with the same edge. The only thing you can do is maximize the amount of turns it will take or minimize the amount that you will lose when you hit a losing streak, but it will always be on the expense of something else and the ratio stays the same.

I couldn't find a casino with a 10 cent starting bet like I said I'm doing this for fun not trying to make a living. There is a video poker machine here with a 99.98% payback I guess I'm just gonna stick to that one until I figure out something that'll work better :/

Good choice.

Quote: roudy123

...my simulators have shown that in the long term (hundreds of thousands of times simulated) I'm end up ahead. I'm willing to put the original $8192, and whatever my sessions earn me I'll put that towards that dollar amount.

I had this idea for a system that looked nothing like anything I'd seen so far. I wrote a program to sim it, and it won like hell won't have it. I thought I had something pretty special indeed.

That's when I began to notice the queer results: my sims produced huge winners when run after starting up the computer. Later in the day, not so much. What was happening here was that the random number generator wasn't producing random results when there wasn't enough system entropy.

With system entropy, the results were nothing special: lots a little wins and a few large and devastating losses. Oh well...

16 straight losses doesn't seem none too likely, but neither do 17 reds in a row at Roulette. Yet I saw that happen. I was on the right side of that proposition at the time.

Did the same at Pai Gow Poker. Parleyed up to the table max and walked with thousands. The next day, the Sahara cut the table max in half to $500. Long runs like that do happen, and if you're Martingaling, you get taken to the cleaners. Don't do it, it ain't worth it.