Please tell me if this roulette system and it's math are sound. Please be nice.

A method for betting roulette
If it is true that Red is as likely to win the next spin as Black,
or vice - versa ,then it is possible to derive an Edge using Maths.
We use my 9 column Block to determine when to bet and we only bet level stakes .
Experienced roulette players will already know that the second Column has more Blacks than Reds and the third column has more Reds than Blacks so we only bet when the third "spin " of the Block indicates the 2 or 3 Column.
For best value we only bet when the Block indicates that we should bet the second Dozen .
BLOCK
1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3
1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3
2 3 1 3 1 2 1 2 3
2 3 1 1 2 3 3 1 2
for this idea we only use the first three lines downwards so
AMENDED BLOCK

1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3
1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3
2 3 1 3 1 2 1 2 3

An illustration.
DOZENS.
Should the first two numbers be 2 and 9
2 is in the first dozen ( 1 )and 9 is in the first dozen ( 1 )
Looking at the block we can see that the indicated dozen to bet is the one that follows 1 and 1 ( the first column of the block )and that is 2 so the 2nd Dozen is the indicated dozen .
COLUMNS.
2 in in the 2nd column ( 2 ) and 9 is in the 3rd column ( 3 )
Looking at the block we can see that the indicated column to bet is the one that follows 2 and 3 ( the sixth column of the block )and that is 2 so the 2nd Column is the indicated column.
BUT
WE DON'T BET THEM AS A DOZEN OR A COLUMN BUT AS THE INDIVIDUAL NUMBERS WITHIN THEM AND ONLY THOSE NUMBERS WHICH ARE IN THE MINORITY RED OR BLACK.
In this case we bet only the Red numbers within the second dozen and the secon d column and these are ;
5 -32 -14 -16-18 -19 -21 - and 23 - Eight in all - a 7/2 shot.
Those in the 2nd dozen have a better value ( 7/2 )than those in the 1st or 3rd dozen with odds of 3 /1 but the choice is yours .
When I used to bet this- as 2nd dozen bets - I was in overall
profit but it was a roller-coaster with both wins and losses of over 100 and 200 and in one session I won over 400 but unfortunately only once - but it was a nice feeling at the time. And that was at level stakes .
As always the advice is to test first with funny money.It may be difficult to understand at first but if you persevere I think you will find it rewarding . But it does require patience .
The Maths ?
The dozen and column combined give an advantage of 20 / 37 but it depends on whether or not a red or black are equally likely to occur.And the Maths geeks keep telling us that that is true - IN THE LONG RUN ! So you will win in the long run !

Mathblock is an appropriate screen name as Braindead is already taken.

Quote: Buzzard

Mathblock is an appropriate screen name as Braindead is already taken.

LOL, I don't think "Please be nice" means what you think it does.

Gee I was being nice, or so I thought.

But the guy that designed this sytem said that he had 45 years of experience playing?

What do you think about his computations?

Quote: mathblock

Experienced roulette players will already know that the second Column has more Blacks than Reds and the third column has more Reds than Blacks so we only bet

This is far as I needed to read. Experienced roulette
players also know this is completely unexploitable.
You're welcome to try, players have been trying
for 200 years.

What about the mathematical construct?

Quote: mathblock

A method for betting roulette

Excellent!
To quote this website owner
"All betting systems are worthless.
However, for the mathematically challenged, here is a forum of your own."
seems incomplete
try this one
"...when measured by the ratio of expected loss to expected bet.
All betting systems are equal to flat betting when compared this way,
as they should be.
In other words, all betting systems are equally worthless."

mathblock, ignore those that laugh and snicker and make comments that have nothing to do with your betting system
and the questions you ask.

Just flag their posts

I too am the "mathematically challenged"
and 3 days of swimming has me still swimming.

Quote: mathblock

If it is true that Red is as likely to win the next spin as Black,
or vice - versa ,

I am with you on that.

Quote: mathblock

then it is possible to derive an Edge using Maths.

oh oh. math time?

Quote: mathblock

For best value...

I like Great Value (Walmart)

Quote: mathblock

The Maths ?
The dozen and column combined give an advantage of 20 / 37
but it depends on whether or not a red or black are equally likely to occur.
And the Maths geeks keep telling us that that is true - IN THE LONG RUN !
So you will win in the long run !

Ok, got to get some sleep to look again at your post

can you give a better example?

I am more than mathematically challenged right now
I like *sound*, but need it to be quiet to
absorb your post and betting method

FYI, the original thread is posted at the gambling.co.uk forum, under the General Casino Forum.

I'll attempt a link: http://www.gambling.co.uk/forums/general-casino-forum/50501-method-betting-roulette.html

Let's walk through this:

Does each bet have a house edge?
Does adding negative numbers ever result in a smaller negative number?
How does this system help you win money over time?


It looks to me like you're arriving at a 20/37ths chance of winning on each spin and assuming that means you have an edge. This isn't the case. As an extreme example, if you win 1 unit 20/37ths of the time and lose 100 units 17/37ths of the time, you're pretty well screwed.

Quote: mathblock

But the guy that designed this sytem said that he had 45 years of experience playing?

So what? I've known guys who have 45 years of life experience, and they're still epic failures.

Quote: mathblock

The Maths ?
The dozen and column combined give an advantage of 20 / 37 but it depends on whether or not a red or black are equally likely to occur.And the Maths geeks keep telling us that that is true - IN THE LONG RUN ! So you will win in the long run !

This paragraph isn't math. I don't follow what it is saying, or what 'advantage' there seems to be, so I can't analyze the Math and see if there is a fault, or explain it.

The person that designed the system says he has been playing roulette on a weekly basis for 45 years and, unlike some, he does know what he is talking about.
For all too many of those years he believed the crap that we MUST lose in the Long Run. Ignore it !

Doesn't the math prove that it works?

Quote: mathblock

The person that designed the system says he has been playing roulette on a weekly basis for 45 years and, unlike some, he does know what he is talking about.
For all too many of those years he believed the crap that we MUST lose in the Long Run. Ignore it !

Doesn't the math prove that it works?

If you're so sure that "he does know what he is talking about" and that you won't lose at roulette in the long run, then why are you so concerned about the math??

deleted

Doesn't joint probability prove that this system works?

The math posted proves that it does, right?

Quote: mathblock

Doesn't joint probability prove that this system works?

The math posted proves that it does, right?

No. It doesn't. It can't. Just answer this question: How, on any single bet, does this system overcome the house edge? It doesn't. So how can the system overcome the house edge on a series of bets?

The system designer says that, "People like you who cannot understand the difference between a single event and a double event.
The probability of a single event such as one toss of a coin is 1 in 2, but the joint probability of two events-,two tosses of a coin- is 1/2 x 1/2 or 1/4, as anyone who bets "doubles" knows only too well."


The system designer says, "That most of your mere statements are the usual knee-jerk reactions - they KNOW ! One of them seems to think like you that a single event is enough to destroy my argument ! So why should I respond to fundamentalists like you who know "The Truth "without the need of reason ?
They, like you, should get real and understand that no one can tell with certainty the result of a future event which is, by it's very nature, uncertain. I freely admit I do not know the outcome- I guesstimate . You and your fellow "Certaintors " however claim certainty while Probability Maths claims only"EXPECTATION " !

The person that designed the system says he has been playing roulette on a weekly basis for 45 years and, unlike some, he does know what he is talking about.

What is he talking about, might I ask ?

Quote: mathblock

The system designer says that, "People like you who cannot understand the difference between a single event and a double event.
The probability of a single event such as one toss of a coin is 1 in 2, but the joint probability of two events-,two tosses of a coin- is 1/2 x 1/2 or 1/4, as anyone who bets "doubles" knows only too well."

Nobody is questioning the probabilities. And you're very conveniently ignoring the payouts. If two tosses of a coin, an event where you're right 1/4 of the time, pays 3:1, you'll break even over time. If it pays 2:1, you'll lose big over time. Roulette is a game where every bet has a built-in house edge, and your system does absolutely nothing to eliminate that edge on any spin or series of spins.

This system is also far to simple to have a "designer." It's not like this is in any way new. Unless you're talking to a 200 year old person, you're talking to someone who is very falsely claiming to have "designed" this system.

I think the first question to ask is, what is the basis for determining the numbers in the third row of the block in the first place? It looks like Mathblock is taking the sum of the first two numbers and then subtracting 3 (or 6) if necessary to get a number from 1 to 3.

The second question is, why choose the numbers in the "minority" color?

The third question is, why ignore column 1 - if a particular dozen combined with column 1 has more of one color than another, then why not bet?

The fourth question is, where does 20/37 come from?

Finally, not a question, but a statement: "red and black are equally likely to occur" and "red and black will occur the same number of times" are two entirely different things.