PlayHunter
PlayHunter
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Joined: Sep 16, 2011
February 19th, 2013 at 5:24:30 AM permalink
OK, we know that Martingale (and any other betting system) will fail in the long run if played in a -EV game.

My question is to find out if Martingale is still a losing system if played in a +EV game ? For example, a blackjack game with unreal good rules which give the player a huge advantage like say 1% where the table limits are min/max 1/500 ?

OK, I know that a no double + no split strategy will wipe out ~ 3% in EV for the player so the game will become negative EV. To avoid this, Martingale will be modified in that a win to cover a previous split or double like: 1st bet is 1 unit - lost 1 unit, 2nd bet is 2 units then split & one hand doubled - lost 6 units, now the following bet will have to cover all previous loses and make a 1 unit win if the bet is won. So the 3rd bet will be 8 units - if win start over, and if the hand require split or double by basic strategy, the player will do so.

Now I guess that this Martingale system will be a guaranteed loser at these 1/500 table limits. - But if the limits would be 1/10000 ?

But how would fare a Reverse Martingale system for a game with same conditions as described above ? (I believe this system should be a winner) So, this Reverse Martingale system would look like this: 1st bet 1 unit - lose 1 unit, 2nd bet 1 unit - win one unit, 3rd bet 2 units - win two units, 4th bet 4 units - win 4 units, 5th bet bet 8 units - win 8 units, 6th bet 16 units - win or lose start over at step 1 and increase bets as described after a win. Basically this Reverse Martingale system will try to hit a winning streak of 5 rounds in a row. If anywhere in this series a hand will require split or double (or both), the player will split or double according to basic strategy. The player will only start over with 1 unit bet after he achieved 5 winning rounds in a row, or after he lost (any) one round.

- What win % per hour would a player have (@ ~ 150 hands/hour) with a system like this ? - BUT if the player does this Reverse Martingale with only a two step scheme such as he double his bet after any win and then start over (even if he won or lost last bet) ?
gamblinggrant
gamblinggrant
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February 24th, 2013 at 7:26:07 PM permalink
I'm new here but I've been gambling for about 13 years. It is generally understood that any time you have an advantage the best way to play is proportional wagering. That is to say a fixed percentage. A good reference work is "Fortune's Formula". It is about how chaos theory was applied to futures trading in the early 90's. The programers realized they had an advantage and applied the "kelly formula" to position sizing. To answer the second part it is best to double with every second win. I often apply the approach you mentioned in the last sentence when playing Baccarat.
Whom the Gods Would Destroy They First Mock
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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Joined: Jan 12, 2010
February 24th, 2013 at 7:33:18 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
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