help? what is the value of this play?

around a certain casino I have noticed some issues with dealers,
just curious if anyone knows what the value of this play would be theoretically speaking

max bet in pai gow is 500

assuming the dealer does not pay attention to the max and you can go over and bet 1000 per hand until you lose at which point it could be brough to the house attention and they would only take 500 from you,
not trying to discuss the ethical situation behind it just trying to figure out the advatage percentage wise

Do they never catch the problem on a win? They pay $950 on a win with no issue?

its beeen like 10-12 times already yes they have caught on on a win but they still pay me each time- most of the time they jsut pay it and say nothing

It depends on the exact probability of a win, which requires knowing the house way and your setting method. (https://wizardofodds.com/games/pai-gow-tiles/)

Ballpark, you are probably looking at about 30% win, 30% loss, 40% push. That is, 30% of the time you win $950, 30% of the time you lose $500, and 40% of the time you win $0. That is a $135/hand edge (including pushes).

I can't believe that you can get away with this more than once with the same pit crew... can you?

this goes on constantly , not jsut at this casino, you just have to watch, there are certain dealers that dont look at max and things like that

Sure, it's a good thing to watch for. But, what I mean is, you can't bet $1000, lose, call the pit boss over to have them adjust your bet down to $500, and then bet $1000 the very next hand. I'm guessing that even if you came back the next day (when the same people were working) you wouldn't be able to get away with it.

I was playing black-chip double deck game. This one guy kept trying to surrender every time he had a bad hand (there was no surrender allowed in this game). He got away with it the first time. I didn't say anything, of course. The next time the dealer was about to let him do it again, but at the last second he realized and said, no, no surrender allowed. When he tried it the third time, it became obvious that he was just taking shots.

The funny thing is, he wasn't playing very well, and trying to surrender hands that you wouldn't actually want to surrender if it was allowed. I think he tried to surrender a 13 vs a 2 once. The casino would have made a lot more money off of him if they allowed surrender.

you are 1000 pecent right you cannot do it after having refund the amount over max, it only works until you lose, but it works at least 2 a week, especially since they show me a max bet player anyway so it doesnt look that off

In that case you probably care more about edge/resolution (ignoring pushes) than edge/hand (ie, since it's essentially a one-time bet, you don't really care how many hands it takes to resolve, so it makes more sense to ignore pushes)

So, it's about 50% +$950; 50% -$500, for an EV of $225.

The irony of the "strictlyAP" user name...

OT, but witnessed last week a player putting 2 black chips on a single number (mid-spin) at a roulette table where the max bet on a single number was 100. The player left immediately after seeing his number didn't come out. The dealer then noticed the 2 black chips, asked the other players if we knew who he was or where he went to, but nobody knew. The dealer informed the pit boss, but all they did was place the extra black in the bank's chipstack- no phone call upstairs to investigate who the player was to try to return the chip.